The full tables for the Sunday Times poll are now up here – as already mentioned last night, the topline figures are CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, Others 16%. The “others” include UKIP at 7%, a figure they also hit once during the week for the Sun, so they certainly seemed to have recieved at least a temporary boost from the issue of Europe returning to the agenda.

Economic optimism remains extremely low. 9% of people expect their financial situation to get better over the next year compared to 57% who expect it to get worse, a net “feel good factor” of minus 48. While this is extremely negative historically, it is fairly typical of 2011 so far, and actually an improvement from the last few weeks when it has been below minus 50. Hardly anyone (3%) expects the present economic problems to be over within a year, 21% think they will pass in the next one or two years, 32% expect them to last three or four years, 24% expect them to last five to ten years.

The bulk of the poll is questions on Europe. Only 5% of people think that Britain has a lot of influence in the EU, 32% think Britain has a little influence, 41% not a lot and 15% none. 34% of people think that Britain has less influence than we did under Tony Blair and 45% think we have less influence than under Thatcher.

41% of respondents thought that Britain would be better off if we left the EU, 29% think we would be worse off and 30% neither or don’t know – a familar pattern of Euroscepticism. 41% of people think that David Cameron should use the current problems in the EU as an opportunity to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Europe, 27% think Cameron should wait until the present crisis has passed to renegotiate, 15% think no renegotiation is needed. 59% of people think that Conservative rebels were right to vote for a referendum, compared to 22% who think they were wrong.

On the wider Eurozone crisis people are evenly split about whether the EU should be attempting to save the Eurozone – 36% think it is right to spend money on trying to save it, 39% think it is wrong. A majority, however, think that countries like Greece who are unable to pay their debts should be made to leave. Respondents do have considerable confidence in Angela Merkel to make the necessarily decisions to solve the crisis – 56% of people said they had a lot or a little confidence in her, compared to 36% who have confidence in Nicholas Sarkozy and just 8% for Silvio Berlusconi.

82% of people think it is important for Britain’s economy that the crisis in the Eurozone is solved. However, a good majority people remain opposed to Britain contributing money to any Eurozone bailout – only 24% think Britain should contribute, with 58% opposed.

Turning to the employment questions, 38% of people would back laws making it easier to sack unproductive workers. 19% think that workers’ rights are not protected enough and there should be greater protection from dismissal, 31% think the current balance is about right.

On maternity and paternity leave, 39% think current maternity provision is about right, 29% think it is too generous and 18% not generous enough. 31% think paternity provision is about right, 24% too generous and 31% not generous enough. Men are more likely than women to think that both maternity and paternity leave is too generous.

On staying at home to look after children, very similar proportions of men and women would stay at home to look after their children if their partner earned enough. 65% of men with children and 62% of women with children said they would stay at home to look after the children. However, attitudes are different when we asked about respondents’ spouses – 82% of men would be happy for their spouse or partner to stay at home and look after the children, however only 56% of women would be happy for their spouse/partner to stay at home.

On the Royal questions, 76% of people supporting giving female children equal rights to succeed to the throne with only 13% opposed. There was less support for ending the ban on a Catholic becoming monarch – 48% thought it should be allowed, 33% thought it should not.

Finally on the London protests, while people are sympathetic to the aims of the protestors, they would tend to support legal action to remove them from outside St Pauls. 39% say they support the aims of the protesters, 26% do not and 35% are unsure. 47%, however, would support legal action to remove them with 39% opposed. 53% of people think St Paul’s Cathedral was wrong to close its doors (31% think they were right), while 42% of people think that Giles Fraser was wrong to resign (31% think he was right).


240 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times: full report”

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  1. @JOHN B DICK
    Thank you for your helpful comment about historic dance as a form of exercise. However, it is not in my DNA. But I can see that prancing about around cross swords wearing a skirt and a dead badger is a valuable pastime.

    Perhaps you would do better suggesting it to your own countrymen. It would save the NHS a great deal of money, if some sort of fitness regime could be introduced up there. The educating of resting dancers regarding the consumption of 3 bottles of whisky and a deep fried Mars Bar, could come later.

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  2. Crossbat/TingedFringe –

    As TF surmised, people place themselves around the centre in politics, and from a rough bell curve around the centre:

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-channel4-leftrightspectrum-031011.pdf

    Note also (it’s relevant for some of the comment discussion here), that only around half of people consider themselves left or right wing (the remainder saying centre or don’t know), and that one can’t necessarily class party supporters as necessarily being supporters of whatever ideological position the party is seen as holding:

    only 54% of people who voted Tory in 2010 classed themselves as being on the right of centre
    54% of 2010 Lab voters classed themselves as being on the left of centre
    34% of 2010 LD voters classed themselves as being on the left of centre

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  3. On top of the two thirds of Greeks who are polled feeling “rage” about the new round of cuts coming up, some body called the ILO is predicting a World recession and widespread social unrest.

    I think people are waking up to what they are getting and don’t like it.

    Apart from the party political points, I really think the UK and the EU both need a Plan B (or C). Something aimed at the populace, not the Banks. It’s time for the EU to be the socialist centralised Government that they get namecalled but have never been.

    At least to sort this out.

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  4. @Socalliberal

    ‘I would love it if I could watch that election night (though I wonder if it was even televised back then….). I can just imagine the excitement, the energy, and the enthusiasm of the Labour volunteers’

    The 1945 election actually had a number of nights – polling was conducted on the 5th,12th and in a couple of constituencies as late as the 19th. The votes weren’t counted till the 26th – due largely to the fact it took time to transport the service men and women’s vote. It was when the boxes containing the service votes were opened that it became apparent Labour had won a landslide – as they overwhelmingly voted Labour.

    The result was announced half way through the Potsdam Conference – and both Churchill and Attlee were in attendance as the result of the election was unknown at the time the conference started. It was probably the last time a British GE had any real global relevance.

    P.s hope you are enjoying the snow

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  5. ‘NICK P
    People may well not like what they are getting, but they will get it anyway. I have no idea how the Greek mind works, with very little logic or regard for the truth, as far as I can see. As for the UK, I very much hope and believe, there will be no going back on government spending restraint for some time to come. Where the EU is concerned, its lackadaisical attitude toward sound finance has watched the Greece become bankrupt.

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  6. @Chouenlai

    “The educating of resting dancers regarding the consumption of 3 bottles of whisky and a deep fried Mars Bar, could come later.”

    “I have no idea how the Greek mind works, with very little logic or regard for the truth, as far as I can see.”

    Crikey, even by your standards you’re going some, aren’t you? Two entire nations and their peoples put away in one fell swoop, amidst an impressive welter of generalisations and stereotypes. You know , Chou, I’ve got to take my Che Guevara beret off to you sometimes!

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  7. chouenlai

    I get the feeling AW would like me to desist, so we will have to remain in disagreement.

    Pity, because I would have (of course) persuaded you to accept my world view.

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  8. well, I’ve had two out of three posts enter moderation this morning, so maybe I can get a hattrick.

    Furtehr to my lucky surviving post, the Grauniad has added more info to its site about Prince Charles ‘veto’ of legislation.

    I picked out this para:

    “When asked about the consultation with the duchy [of Cornwall] on the children’s rights bill, the education minister, Sarah Teather, confirmed it had happened, but said: “We do not disclose the contents of correspondence with members of the royal family.””

    As we the UK taxpayers fund the Royals why are we not entitled to know the content of all correspondence between them and the government? Indeed, why not all correspondence of any nature?

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  9. Why the hell should we ask Charlie what laws we can pass?

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  10. @NickP

    “Why the hell should we ask Charlie what laws we can pass?”

    Because he is our future King and we will all one day be his loyal subjects.

    Welcome to an advanced and sophisticated democratic state!!

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  11. CHOUENLAI

    ” I have no idea how the Greek mind works, with very little logic or regard for the truth, as far as I can see.”

    May I recommend “Boomerang -The Meltdown Tour ” by Michael Lewis if you want to find out why & how Greeks got into this mess.

    All I can say is that Sarkozy was right the other day when he said they should never have been admitted to EZ. I’m afraid they have tectonic cultural , fiscal & economic structural change to accomplish-failing which years & years of pain.

    …and I doubt they will be hiring Goldman Sachs to make a 14% deficit look like a 3% deficit again in a hurry.

    The dreadfull irony of Greece is that Greek Banks were pretty much beyond reproach.:-
    ” Virtually alone among European Banks , they did not buy US sub-prime backed bonds , or leverage them selves to the hilt, or pay themselves huge sums of money. The just lent 30bn euros to the Greek Government-where it was stolen or squandered. In Greece the banks didn’t sink the country. The country sank the banks”

    quote from Boomerang.

    Greek Banks will now be nationalised .

    Boomerang is a terrific read-the first chapter is about the Icelandic Bubble.THat is truly astounding & will rank alongside THe South Sea Company.

    In three years its banking assets grew from peanuts to $140bn.
    In four years 2003/7 Icelandic equity markets multiplied nine times, and real estate values tripled.

    They finished up with total Debt of 850% of GDP & banking losses equivalent to $330,000 for every Icelandic man woman & child.

    Not bad for a population the size of Bradford.

    Heard Steph Flanders interviewing the outgoing head of ECB-Trichet.-this morning.
    He said Central Banks can’t sort this out-politicians have to.

    Dead right-but in Greece ( for starters) they are already shouting “t*****r” at their President in the streets-so the politicians have no chance.

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  12. DC’s Coalition is introducing new reforms at quite a rate, nearly all of which, as a LD, I find easy to back.

    Last night the church was giving him alot of stick on radio 5 for changing the law to allow gay marriage, although a number of people phoned in to offer support.

    This morning a number of Councils were attacking him for proposing radical reform of adoption; given the fact that the number of children under the age of 1 being adopted had fallen from 4000 in 1976 to 60 in 2011, I reckon reform is well overdue. Again most of the phone ins strongly supported DC.

    Right wing newspapers do not approve the introduction of full council tax charge for second homes; however there must be many people who live in rural or holday areas who have seen their children priced out of the property market who will applaud this overdue reform. This followed Government crackdown on stamp duty avoidance by those purchasing multi-million pound houses.

    Two of the best actions so far have been the freezing of Council Tax after years of massive hikes each April, and a far more generous basic tax allowance. Although the introduction is slower than I would like to see.

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  13. @AW – “34% of 2010 LD voters classed themselves as being on the left of centre.”

    This contrasts with results from the March 2011 aggregated data (larger sample).

    2010 LD in a ratio 97:10:41 (left:centre:right)
    2011 LD in a ratio 34:15:10
    suggesting that the majority of LD support still comes from the left.

    2010 Con in a ratio 20:36:222 (left:centre:right)
    2010 Lab in a ratio 151:28:19

    h
    ttp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-yougov-aggregatedatamarch2011-210411.pdf

    [BillyBob – it doesn’t have don’t knows there. Remember a quarter or so of the population don’t put themselves in any of those boxes (and equally, only a subsample of that large aggregate had answered the ideological question… the fact these answers differ, suggests that could be skewing things) – AW]

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  14. Chouenlai and Colin

    While I may well support staying in Europe when a referendum does occur, as it ineviably will, I have always been opposed to us joiing the Euro. Do you remember when there was first talk about us joining the Euro and those opposed pointed out that countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain were paying unaffordable state pensions, far more generous than ours? They were mocked when they suggested that if we joined the Euro we would end up paying for their extravagance in this area. It appears the sceptics turned out to be right.

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  15. NickP/Crossbat

    “Why …should we ask Charlie what laws we can pass?”
    ‘Because he is our future King and we will all one day be his loyal subjects.Welcome to an advanced and sophisticated democratic state!!’

    According to our constitution the monarch still needs to approve each bill before it becomes an Act. The fact that Queen Anne was the last monarch to reject the bill might mean that every bill since then has been perfect. The monarch has a range of privileges, including declaring war and appointing Lords. These powers have passed to the PMs, who IMO on many occasions have abused these privileges.

    It is high time these anomolies were addressed; perhaps this reforming govt will do just that.

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  16. @CROSSBAT
    jOHN B DICK made a very sarcastic comment about my choice of exercise, I responded in kind.
    As for Greece, see Colin’s post to me above.

    @NICK P
    In the immortal words of Michael Jackson, “you are not alone”. AW hinted to me, that the right wing take on the issue, would not be required on this occasion.

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  17. @CROSSBAT
    “Why the hell should we ask Charlie what laws we can pass?”
    Because he is our future King and we will all one day be his loyal subjects.
    Welcome to an advanced and sophisticated democratic state!!

    Bravo, what a good answer.

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  18. @colin
    I fear the worst as I said the other day. I am in good company because one can tell that Frau Merkel does to.
    I will get Boomerang next trip to Waterstones.

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  19. HENRY

    It was interesting to read that China -in response to the request to chip in to EFSF-has been making noises about the unsustainable pension & welfare structures in parts of EZ.
    I read a report the other day which claimed that age related welfare & geriatric healthcare costs will be around 25% of governmemt spending by 2040 across EU.

    Greece is an astounding story of excess & wilfull disregard for means of funding it.

    But Italy too has very poor economic growth record & both Spain & Portugal have major deficits in competitiveness.

    I heard CK the other day come very close to saying he was wrong to support UK entry to EZ.

    The referendum thing must be worrying for both DC & NC . THe polls seem to indicate that a No might prevail in a strict In/Out vote-and they both know that this would be an economic disaster for UK.

    I feel DC is playing it right at present -pleading that this is not the right time-and that opportunities for revisiting competencies will come when new Treaties are requested by Merkel/Sarkozy.

    However I wish I was as sanguine as him that such negotiations could be accomplised quickly & with any real results.

    I can’t help feeling that a much bigger agenda is emerging -the splitting off of EZ countries into an “ever closer” union-holding separate meetings, taking their own decisions etc.

    Where does that leave The Single Market of the 27?

    What role for the Commission when there are two EU blocs?

    Can the OUT 10 become a credible grouping to advance their own interests?-I see David Owen arguing in favour of this sort of initiative.

    ……..ans still we cannot be sure that the EFSF expansion + Bank recapitalisations will turn out to be credible or not. There is an awful lot of water to flow under the bridge yet.

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  20. @henry
    We are quite happy to pay full council tax on our place in North Devon. The coalition has done the right thing. My sons in-laws have a shoot attached to their place in Cornwall. To be fair they do add a tidy bit to the local economy, but full council tax also ? Certainly.

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  21. I’m not too sure how the council tax freeze fits in with the localism agenda.

    But my bins have always been collected weekly so I’m all right there.

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  22. Anthony

    Re the SoS Independence poll table (now published)

    I note that the cross breaks by voting intention have either not been weighted, or they have, and the weighted totals have been omitted to hide VI.

    Which is it? Is it within BPC rules to omit part of the data in a table?

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  23. OECD said economic growth in the eurozone will slow to 0.3pc next year after 1.6pc growth this year.

    !

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  24. @henry – “Right wing newspapers do not approve the introduction of full council tax charge for second homes; ”

    That isn’t what the coalition have done. They have only allowed councils to apply the full CT rate, whereas at present the highest rate is 90%, the lowest 50%. Only 5 authorities apply the 50% at present. It’s a welcome but minor change, and will be applied by local authorities, not the government.

    Far more appropriate would have been changes to planning law making non permanently occupied houses subject to change of use planning applications. This would give a direct ability to rejig housing markets in affected areas, rather than simply allow wealthy people to buy their way into second and third homes.

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  25. it’s time for the analysts to start guessing the Q3 GDP figures, they seem to be +0.3 to +0.5, better than last quarter, although there’s some concern about Q4.

    I expect some muttering about recession to become louder. Perhaps we will get some snow again and have another bad quarter as a result? Or should the UK be in such a position such as to let a bit of snow cause such an impact on GDP?

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  26. Not sure I count as an analyst, but I predict UK growth of 0.2% q/q for Q3.

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  27. @ALEC
    I think you are taking the popular game of “don’t give the coalition credit for anything” to a new extreme. If the Gov are “allowing” councils to charge the full CT rate, councils will charge it. Job done.

    I will never understand the politics of envy, which resents people with money, being able to spend it on what they like (laws allowing). Private Health Care, Private Education, 2nd Home, Private Dental Care.
    Its none of it cheap and if it is what the individual thinks its worthwhile and his/her money is honestly come-by, what has it got to do with you. I get the feeling with a number of posts these days, that anyone with a comfortable financial position must be a crook.

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  28. @ Redrich

    “The 1945 election actually had a number of nights – polling was conducted on the 5th,12th and in a couple of constituencies as late as the 19th. The votes weren’t counted till the 26th – due largely to the fact it took time to transport the service men and women’s vote. It was when the boxes containing the service votes were opened that it became apparent Labour had won a landslide – as they overwhelmingly voted Labour.

    The result was announced half way through the Potsdam Conference – and both Churchill and Attlee were in attendance as the result of the election was unknown at the time the conference started. It was probably the last time a British GE had any real global relevance.

    P.s hope you are enjoying the snow”

    Thank you for pointing that out about 1945. Well then, maybe it wouldn’t be the classic election night experience though if you didn’t have counting until weeks after the election took place, I imagine that people would have been pretty antsy. I know how I get during that inevitable waiting period between the closing of polls and actual precinct results to start being reported when no projections can be made.

    I always think that it’s interesting that you guys mainly have summer or late spring elections. I imagine it’s a very different canvassing experience as opposed to having them in the fall. Different sorts of weather elements to contend with and different kinds of attitudes with the holiday season in full swing. Although I do have local elections in the spring and then primary elections can occur around then or in the wintertime.

    As for the snow, I happen to hate snow. And when it does snow, I ask myself why I’m not back home where I can live in a world free of snow. Fortunately, this snow was only temporary (it came in Saturday afternoon for a few hours and then stopped) and it didn’t stick to the ground because the weather was too warm. So no major life inconvenience. It’s sunny today.

    Btw, how does your wife compare snow storms between where she grew up and where she lives now? I always thought it was kinda silly to suggest snow storms harm the economy because I find that people tend to overbuy in instances of snow storms, spend a lot of money on alcohol at restaurants which are open (tending to drive up bills), and then a whole lot of people pick up employment they would not have otherwise had when they go around getting paid to shovel driveways and clear streets and sidewalks.

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  29. @ Chris Lane

    “Good Morning, and yes, my Mum’s Dad was involved with the 1945 Election Campaign. As I have shared on here recently, he cried on 26/27 July 1945 and said it was what he had worked for all his life. He was 50 then, and he wept with joy.
    Came to Cardiff from west cork when he was 5. Lost a foot at Mons. Survived the Means Test, when this war veteran and his wife, my Gran McCarthy had to sell furniture and his medals for food stamps. My Mum was born in 1931, the depth of the slump.

    The then Coalition Government’s policy was to deflate the economy at a time of recession. Macdonald had left Labour to lead this Government, succeeded by Baldwin and then Chamberlain (Neville). His policy was to ‘find out what Hitler wanted, and then give it to him’ according to Michael Foot in ‘Guilty Men’

    Dark times in England. (And Wales, and Scotland). Never forgotten, or forgiven-here.”

    That sounds terrible, having to sell one’s medals and furniture for food stamps. I’m not a fan of meanstesting (which I would imagine is even worse if you’re a veteran) and I’m irritated at those who want to means test for Medicare and Social Security here. If you watched the King’s Speech, you’ll notice that they really focus on the backdrop of the Great Depression and reenact (I thought successfully) a lot of the Depression era poverty and hopelessness.

    My grandparents were all born right before the Depression started (in late 1928/early 1929) except for one grandfather he was born in 1920. So their early years were all marked by the Depression. Shaped their outlooks on life too (that and World War II and the Holocaust).

    I never realized how much blame the Tories took from Neville Chamberlain’s mistakes. Looking back on it, the man did make a major mistake in trying to appease Hitler. But considering the horrors and bloodiness of World War I, can you really blame him? He was trying to avoid a devasting and costly war. He thought he had a strategy that worked. We stayed out of World War II knowing how bad it would be until we were literally invaded and had to enter.

    I can understand your grandfather crying tears of joy. I’ve teared up twice upon learning election results. Once because of actual sadness and realization of just how racist and ignorant people were. Once in pure joy and historic realization. The latter is a lot better than the former. :)

    “You may know about the Tonypandy (Rhondda) controversy.”

    I am not actually familiar with this.

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  30. @ Redrich

    “The result was announced half way through the Potsdam Conference – and both Churchill and Attlee were in attendance as the result of the election was unknown at the time the conference started. It was probably the last time a British GE had any real global relevance.”

    I think that where Britain matters and is so vitally important as a global actor are in areas where the parties are basically in agreement (at least Labour and the Conservatives are). So I hate admitting this but I think one reason I enjoy following your politics is because it’s all the fun and excitement and intrigue of politics that I love without that same stress and anxiety that comes from following my own nation’s politics and being politically active here.

    Btw, Attlee was far more prepared at Potsdam than Truman was, who was also a new leader at that time. I’m still not sure why FDR picked him (he had to replace his VP in 1944 for being too communist friendly). But Truman was completely unprepared to be the president and had no real involvement in the Roosevelt administration. So he walked into Potsdam a complete rookie.

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  31. @SOCAL
    Don’t be to hard on Chamberlain. 70% of Tories very much agreed with him. So did most of the Royal Family, 100% of the Labour Party and most Liberals. Only the Tory warmonger Churchill and his associates, (those few Tories who didn’t think he was a wind bag from yesteryear), knew Hitler had to be stopped.

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  32. @Chouenlai
    “We are quite happy to pay full council tax on our place in North Devon. The coalition has done the right thing. My sons in-laws have a shoot attached to their place in Cornwall. To be fair they do add a tidy bit to the local economy, but full council tax also ? Certainly.”

    Happy to hear that, and I’m sure you would have been consistent in that view had a similar policy been put in place by the last government .

    But it’s a shame that when the last Government was indeed contemplating something similar just under 2 years ago, it attracted orchestrated criticism from the then opposition and their allies in the press, just as had done the original Labour move to allow councils to increase the tax rate on second homes and empty properties from 50% to 90% a decade back.

    To quote Caroline Spelman at the time: “The Labour Government have already increased council tax on second homes by cutting back discounts….. there are problems in rural areas over affordability, but this is better addressed by setting up new housing trusts to build homes for local people, rather than trying to hike up council tax even more.”

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  33. @Nick P
    “I’m not too sure how the council tax freeze fits in with the localism agenda.”

    An echo of my point last night. Your point has resonance beyond the boundaries of England.

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  34. @phil
    Like so many things that “could” have been done by the last government, it wasn’t.

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  35. Regarding the occupation of St Pauls,with senior clerics
    resigning and the goverment making it plain where they
    stand;why is there such a deafening silence from the
    opposition?

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  36. Henry,
    “I do not understand your statement. As far as I am aware there has been no illegal act. Of course as a LD I recognise that tactical voting to keep Labour, Tory or LD out is quite common, although upto now I did not realise it was illegal”
    What I’m saying is, that an argument ‘Do X otherwise…’ is usually classed as a coercive argument.
    ‘Do what I say, or I’ll shoot you’ – physical coercion.
    ‘Do what I say, or I’ll tell everybody your secret’ – blackmail.
    ‘Marry who I say, or I’ll never speak to you’ – coercion.
    ‘Go out with me, or I’ll sack you’ – coercion.
    All forms of coercion – in all those situations the person being coerced doesn’t have to go along with it and live with the consequences.
    In all cases, such coercion is illegal.

    But FPTP is a system which is coercive by design.
    ‘It doesn’t matter if you’re Green or LibDem – You have to vote Labour, otherwise those dastardly Tories will win’. (Replace minor left-wing parties with minor right-wing parties and ‘Tories’ to ‘Labour’ and it’s the same point).
    People don’t have to go along with the tactical voting – but if they do, the people they like the least (out of the two main parties) will win.
    Any ‘split vote’ allows an unloved party to win – forcing two party politics.

    In other contexts, coercion is broadly illegal – but FPTP is a system designed to be coercive, to the sole benefit of the two main parties (within each seat/area).

    “it’s time for the analysts to start guessing the Q3 GDP figures, they seem to be +0.3 to +0.5, better than last quarter, although there’s some concern about Q4.”
    Anybody have a record of various independent forecasts?
    Markit predict 0.4% – but that assumes a ‘rebound’ from the royal wedding. Without that rebound, it’s 0.1%.
    BCC predict 0.3%
    NIESR predict 0.5%
    Apparently the average prediction is 0.4%
    I can’t see anything wrong with 0.4%, but my own prediction is 0.2%.
    Hopefully I’m wrong and it’ll be closer to (or better than) NIESR.

    Anything than 0.2% and the government is okay.
    Anything less than 0% and the government will be in trouble, IMHO.
    Anything higher than 0.7% and the government is laughing.

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  37. Oh dear.My son in law, who is a director of Barclays(Yes I
    know it sucks but I am not married to him) has always said that Greece will default.Tonight it is reported that
    there will be a referendum on the latest bailout package,I
    think that we can guess how that will go!

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  38. “CHOUENLAI
    Don’t be to hard on Chamberlain. 70% of Tories very much agreed with him. So did most of the Royal Family, 100% of the Labour Party and most Liberals. Only the Tory warmonger Churchill and his associates, (those few Tories who didn’t think he was a wind bag from yesteryear), knew Hitler had to be stopped.”

    100% of the Labour Party supported Chamberlain? When? That is a big load of Big Society. From 1937, Labour officially opposed appeasement.

    But you are right about the Tory Party and their truly shameful policy of giving support to Hitler.

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  39. @Chouenlai
    Tis but a scratch. 50% to 90% was the key decision. And the hypocrisy between opposition and government is the point.

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  40. Don’t know if anybody’s posted this yet (didn’t see it).

    The Greek PM has announced that the government will hold a referendum on whether to accept the bailout or not – “We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe in their decision”.

    So what happens if the people decide not to accept the bailout and instead decide to default?

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  41. ANN in WALES

    @”why is there such a deafening silence from the
    opposition?”

    A very good question.

    Having watched the BBC religious correspondent interview two of the tented ones ( one of whom wore a mask) I might hazard a guess.

    The two potesters in that interview had a list of grievances which sounded more anti-government than anti-capitalist…..” cuts, jobs, pensions, local services etc etc ”

    It begins to look as though the St Pauls authorities are supporting a Labour Party protest against Government POlicy, rather than a protest against capitalism / greed etc etc.

    I’m not not surprised that EM wants to stay out of it-it could get very messy indeed.

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  42. @ann in wales
    With all due respect to your son in law, who I am sure is a very smart chap, the history of Greek finance over the last 45 years would allow a bread van driver to “see it coming”.

    When people have the praised the EU to the heavens over the years, I have wondered how they were going to cope with among other things, Greece. The answer is as you say, they haven’t.

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  43. @Ann (in Wales)
    I have a small sum at 5/2 on the financial futures market that Greece will leave the Euro by end 2012. (OK, strictly it’s with an online bookmaker but I really don’t see the difference). A week or so back, they withdrew the market.

    By the way, has the hurt over that French (how can anyone called Alain be Irish?) referee subsided yet? It’s still a sore point with my other (Welsh) half.

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  44. This is what Germans are reading about developments in EU/EZ

    h ttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,795059,00.html

    In my view it demonstrates the fundamental change which is quietly being implemented by Merkel.

    This is not the EU we thought we were members of . It has huge implications for UK & its politics-particularly for Cons & UKIP.

    DC has got some thinking to do.

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  45. “It begins to look as though the St Pauls authorities are supporting a Labour Party protest against Government POlicy, rather than a protest against capitalism / greed etc etc.”
    Really? False dichotomy time?
    “If you’re against the cuts, you’re for Labour!”

    And that whole ‘Capitalism is Crisis’ banner, that’s an anti-Tory protest sign?
    Or are you taking a small subsample (2) and extrapolating that out?

    How about the anarchists who’re there? I suppose that they are anti-government, technically, but they’d hardly be classed as Labour.
    How about the Anonymous folks?
    etc, etc

    While there will be anti-gov protesters there – some pro-Labour, some anti-Labour – the protest is a whole mishmash of groups with different, broadly left-wing, ideologies.
    (The US ones also have attracted anti-gov types, but not anti-cuts – small-gov types, although admittedly they are a minority).

    And it’s simple why Labour don’t want to be down there – even if the protest message becomes popular, Labour want to be seen as ‘pro-business’.
    Just as every party does, that wants the backing of the press/big business donations.

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  46. Tinged FRinge

    @”So what happens if the people decide not to accept the bailout and instead decide to default?”

    Something very very nasty which we don’t even want to think about.

    Where do Greek public sector workers think Papandreou will find the cash to pay their next salary/pension , if it is not to come from a bailout?

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  47. Tinged FRinge

    @”So what happens if the people decide not to accept the bailout and instead decide to default”

    according to Peston:

    “For Papandreou, plebiscite may be only way to get Greece back to work. But if he loses, presumably it’s default & even possible euro exit”

    Oh and chaos in the markets and Euro wide stagnation during the campaign period up to the actual vote.

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  48. Will respond later,have to perform menial duties now.But
    this Greek thing is really important.

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  49. @IAN ANTHONY JAMES
    It is where Chamberlain did the nation a great service, he bought 18 months. Dalton the pacifist had turned his face at any kind of rearmament, so eventually in 1937 you dumped him for Attlee. Had Britain attempted to go to war in 1937 with a totally under equipped Army and Airforce, things would have been even worse than they were.
    In September 1939, we where still in a very poor condition, which Labours pacifism up to mid 37 had contributed to. Much of the politics of course revolved around Labours great concern about Britain attacking their hero Stalin. They were in complete disarray after the despicable pact which Molotov cobbled up with Ribbentrop became apparent.

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  50. Colin

    Thanks for the link. Interesting stuff.

    In the new structure it describes, I wonder if there will be more similarities between the non-euro EU members and the EFTA countries, than between them and the eurozone ones.

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