The full tables for the Sunday Times poll are now up here – as already mentioned last night, the topline figures are CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, Others 16%. The “others” include UKIP at 7%, a figure they also hit once during the week for the Sun, so they certainly seemed to have recieved at least a temporary boost from the issue of Europe returning to the agenda.

Economic optimism remains extremely low. 9% of people expect their financial situation to get better over the next year compared to 57% who expect it to get worse, a net “feel good factor” of minus 48. While this is extremely negative historically, it is fairly typical of 2011 so far, and actually an improvement from the last few weeks when it has been below minus 50. Hardly anyone (3%) expects the present economic problems to be over within a year, 21% think they will pass in the next one or two years, 32% expect them to last three or four years, 24% expect them to last five to ten years.

The bulk of the poll is questions on Europe. Only 5% of people think that Britain has a lot of influence in the EU, 32% think Britain has a little influence, 41% not a lot and 15% none. 34% of people think that Britain has less influence than we did under Tony Blair and 45% think we have less influence than under Thatcher.

41% of respondents thought that Britain would be better off if we left the EU, 29% think we would be worse off and 30% neither or don’t know – a familar pattern of Euroscepticism. 41% of people think that David Cameron should use the current problems in the EU as an opportunity to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Europe, 27% think Cameron should wait until the present crisis has passed to renegotiate, 15% think no renegotiation is needed. 59% of people think that Conservative rebels were right to vote for a referendum, compared to 22% who think they were wrong.

On the wider Eurozone crisis people are evenly split about whether the EU should be attempting to save the Eurozone – 36% think it is right to spend money on trying to save it, 39% think it is wrong. A majority, however, think that countries like Greece who are unable to pay their debts should be made to leave. Respondents do have considerable confidence in Angela Merkel to make the necessarily decisions to solve the crisis – 56% of people said they had a lot or a little confidence in her, compared to 36% who have confidence in Nicholas Sarkozy and just 8% for Silvio Berlusconi.

82% of people think it is important for Britain’s economy that the crisis in the Eurozone is solved. However, a good majority people remain opposed to Britain contributing money to any Eurozone bailout – only 24% think Britain should contribute, with 58% opposed.

Turning to the employment questions, 38% of people would back laws making it easier to sack unproductive workers. 19% think that workers’ rights are not protected enough and there should be greater protection from dismissal, 31% think the current balance is about right.

On maternity and paternity leave, 39% think current maternity provision is about right, 29% think it is too generous and 18% not generous enough. 31% think paternity provision is about right, 24% too generous and 31% not generous enough. Men are more likely than women to think that both maternity and paternity leave is too generous.

On staying at home to look after children, very similar proportions of men and women would stay at home to look after their children if their partner earned enough. 65% of men with children and 62% of women with children said they would stay at home to look after the children. However, attitudes are different when we asked about respondents’ spouses – 82% of men would be happy for their spouse or partner to stay at home and look after the children, however only 56% of women would be happy for their spouse/partner to stay at home.

On the Royal questions, 76% of people supporting giving female children equal rights to succeed to the throne with only 13% opposed. There was less support for ending the ban on a Catholic becoming monarch – 48% thought it should be allowed, 33% thought it should not.

Finally on the London protests, while people are sympathetic to the aims of the protestors, they would tend to support legal action to remove them from outside St Pauls. 39% say they support the aims of the protesters, 26% do not and 35% are unsure. 47%, however, would support legal action to remove them with 39% opposed. 53% of people think St Paul’s Cathedral was wrong to close its doors (31% think they were right), while 42% of people think that Giles Fraser was wrong to resign (31% think he was right).


240 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times: full report”

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  1. @NICK P

    “chouenlai, are people who vote UKIP necessarily “idiots” then?”
    Yes.
    Further, I did not say don’t know, don’t care people. I said people who want out of Europe. For such a person, voting Labour is like a member of CND voting Tory.

  2. @DH
    Thank you so much for advancing the theory that the people of this country are not crazy about the EU.

    However, since numerous polls which feature Europe are ignored and AW’s reports regarding those polls are ignored, I expect your accurate comment will also be ignored. It would be better if the truth did sink in, because it is not going to change any time soon.

  3. Graham

    Thanks I shall wait patiently with my fingers crossed.

  4. Chouenlai: “this poll covers a number of cogent area’s …………… showing a centre right attitude in most area’s. ……………………..clearly not restricted to retired Major’s”

    Give yourself a rest from the rowing machine, old boy, and buy a lesson in the correct use of apostrophes. You’ll feel better immediately.

  5. I’m always amused by the arguments of the” Brits against the EU” often being so similar to the “Scots against the UK”.

    Comparing and contrasting these positions isn’t done as often as it should be.

    Gerry Hassan has done an interesting comparison of them.

    http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/3550-the-twilight-of-the-british-state-alex-salmond-scottish-independence-and-the-european-question.html

  6. @DH
    “This poll shows again the unremitting negativity towards Europe by the English”

    No it doesn’t. It shows negativity by the British towards the project of ever closer union in a European superstate operating to unnecessarily uniform laws, and the view that that direction of travel has already gone too far so that some devolution of existing powers is necessary. It really annoys me when people equate attitudes to a centralising European government with attitudes to Europe and Europeans.

  7. SMUKESH

    The left and the (far) right newspapers may attack DC; however we the middle income people have been squeezed since 1997; what has changed is that this is now matched by massive cuts elsewhere.

  8. Phil

    You are also guilty of overstating the extent to which this poll supports the stance that you are outlining.

    Or perhaps I missed the question where people were asked about a “European superstate operating to unnecessarily uniform laws”?

  9. @IAN ANTHONY JAMES
    A) I would like to see you do 5 minuets on a rowing machine without a seizure.
    B) This board is about polling, which leads to some discussion about current affairs and there effect on polls.
    C) If you wish to challenge another posters opinion or view in a non partisan way, that’s fine.
    D) If all you have to offer is a bloody spelling lesson, (and its all you do have to offer) your on the wrong board.

  10. HENRY
    `The left and the (far) right newspapers may attack DC; however we the middle income people have been squeezed since 1997; what has changed is that this is now matched by massive cuts elsewhere.`
    Atleast there was plenty of credit available,atleast till 2008

  11. Chouenlai

    Sorry! It’s the teacher in me!

    IAN ANTHONY JAMES didn’t give a spelling lesson, he was just narking.

    I, on the other hand, will give a punctuation lesson!

    The apostrophe causes lots of problems to lots of people (usually because their teachers didn’t explain its use properly).

    The apostrophe is used in two ways,

    1. to show that the noun “owns” something – so
    (a) The soldier’s gun = the gun of the soldier
    (b) The soldiers’ gun = the gun of a group of soldiers
    You don’t use an apostrophe when saying “the Marines yomped”. That is just the plural of one Marine yomping.

    2. to show that a letter (or letters have been omitted). as in didn’t = did not.

    There are other aspects, but that’s (= that is) the basic lesson. And all free of charge too!

  12. Anusing that Angela Merkel outpolls every British politician among the Eurosceptical British public! The Vprsprung Durch Technik factor?

    The poll seems to have been humungous. What does YouGov do with VI responses from people who don’t finish all the questions? If they aren’t counted, they may be a subtle sampling error if busy people vote differently from others.

  13. @OldNat

    I’d like to think that I’m consistent. I advocate devolution of powers from the EU to the UK, and from the UK government to both regional government and local government, the latter’s role having been sadly emasculated over the past 30 years. In all cases, except for devolution within the UK to Scotland, I consider that there is further to go (indeed, reversing the direction of travel itself would be an achievement).

    However, I’d suggest that the party you support displays no more consistency than the one I generally vote for (which, I unashamedly accept has a pretty mixed record). Yours seems to want infinite devolution from the UK to Scotland. Yet it seems unconcerned by the centralising tendency of the EU and is demonstrating centralising tendencies of its own over local government in Scotland.

  14. Old Nat,What a splendidly concise explanation of the use
    of the apostrophe.Years ago my tutor at university told me
    in haughty tones,that I did not seem aware of how to use
    an apostrophe S.Well as I went to the same school as
    Mandy Rice Davies that was hardly surprising!

  15. @OLD NAT
    Thanks, from you learning is a pleasure.
    BTW, its the soldiers weapon, not gun.

  16. LDs v UKIP

    According to this poll:

    Age group 18-24 prefer the LD to UKIP by 8 to 2
    25-39 prefer the LD to UKIP by 12 to 3
    40-64 prefer the LD to UKIP equally 6 to 6
    but 65+ prefer UKIP to LD by 14 to 8

    So its those ‘old gits’ that have swung to UKIP and away from LD.

    According to this poll:

    LD lead UKIP by 11 to 8 in the Rest of the South (32.5%)
    LD lead UKIP by 9 to 7 in the Midlands/Wales (21.4%)
    LD lead UKIP by 9 to 8 in the North (24.6%)
    LD lead UKIP by 4 to 0 in Scotland (8.70%)
    But only in London do UKIP lead LD by 7 to 4 (12.8%)

    The %s in brackets give the % of the electorate for each region.

    It is interesting that such a clear LD lead over UKIP in 87.2% of the electorate merely becomes a 1% lead overall. In GE2010 London Region had a vote % of only 1.7% for UKIP, their lowest regional % by far after Scotland.

    So are we also to assume that most of those ‘old gits’ must live in London? If so, will they actually get out to vote this time?

  17. @OldNat

    Fair enough, poor wording on my part. Substitute “It is consistent with” in place of “It shows”.

  18. @Henry

    The left and the (far) right newspapers may attack DC; however we the middle income people have been squeezed since 1997; what has changed is that this is now matched by massive cuts elsewhere.`

    No we’ve not. Our incomes rose in real terms between 1997 and 2010 on middle incomes by around 13% in real terms – the “squeeze” was only on those who had to buy property during these years where such a rise in real incomes in no way equated with house prices – though given the relatively cheap cost of borrowing those who did acquire mortgages were often paying little more for loans of much greater value.

    The attack on middle incomes over the last 18 months has been on a unique scale. WE are seeing significant, possibly even savage reductions in people’s living standards on a scale unheard of in post war Britain.

    If you are a public sector worker then you lose all of the gains of the previous 13 years – if the pay freeze lasts for a third year all the gains and a further 3 – 4% reduction – and if you add in the full costs of the pension robbery then you are in reality 12% worse off then in 1997 and 25% worse off than in 2010 – not exactly the same as the relative slowness of income growth during new labour.

  19. @nick palmer
    When you are a very grumpy, very old man, its nice to feel part of the mainstream of popular opinion. I wrote a glowing report on the Angel of Brandenburg just yesterday on this board. When one sees an outstanding woman politician, they tend to be very outstanding.

  20. Chouenlai

    I’m happy to accept the correction. We all have our areas of expertise, and learning from each other is always a pleasure.

  21. ANN (IN WALES)

    As I remember, Mandy had many more lucrative skills, than where to insert an apostrophe.

    I trust that these weren’t taught at your school!

  22. PHIL

    I agree that “it is consistent with” is a much better phrase. However, as I pointed out in a Scottish context, it is also consistent with other interpretations.

    I’m unsure what you mean by your comments on the Scottish Government.

    Do you know of the Concordat with COSLA and the removal of ring-fencing? That causes huge problems for Labour who much prefer centralised micro-management on the Whitehall model.

    I suspect it would require a much more detailed examination of power structures within Scotland and England than I (or I suspect you) have done to produce clarity in such a multi-national systems analysis.

  23. Nick Palmer

    Nice to see you on a civilized site!

  24. chouenlai @ chris lane 1945

    ”I did 90 minuet sessions 3 times a week.”

    Historical dance is an excellet form of exercise. Perhaps you could diversify into Galliards and courants. 270 minuets must be very boring.

  25. Nick Palmer

    YouGov’s polls for the Sunday Times are always fairly substantial – 13 pages worth is pretty standard. I suspect the only difference though is that panel members answers these as a stand-alone questionnaire, while normally the ‘weekday’ political questions are put in longer, mainly consumer, lists of questions. In itself that might mean the Sunday ones might be more likely to attract the politically committed than the other, but Anthony would know about differential return rates.

  26. John B Dick

    That was unkind!

    Funny!, but unkind.

  27. JOHN B DICK.

    Thanks!
    I cant believe I wrote minuets, and I am not sure where the 90 minutes came from either,maybe I was tired this morning from running,

    and also surprised that the Lib dems are at 8% in the latest poll, a high outlier I think.

    And also that a minority of UK citizens support the change of the Succession Law with regard to the Religious Test.

  28. @Smukesh

    “The Independent paper with it`s headline editorial has just turned anti-Cameron,joining the two other leftie papers…They can see that the next election can go either way with Milliband`s improved performance…”

    Yes, I’ve noticed that a few commentators and so-called opinion formers seem to be developing some decidedly cold feet of late and I sense what could be the beginning of a media flight from the Coaltion. Andrew Rawnsley in today’s Observer seems to have rediscovered his gonads and instead of the recent Clegg-lite pro-coalition drivel that he has been serving up since the last election, has launched into a vitriolic attack on bankers, financiers, the establishment in general, Silvio Berlusconi, Sarkozy, Rick Perry and David Cameron! His passing flirtation seems to be over, as it appears to be in Martin Kettle’s case too, and the recent Lib Dem supporting editorial stances of the Guardian and Observer have now mutated into regular expressions deep scepticism about the coalition.

    Are many of those who were briefly smitten in the Rose Garden on that warm Spring day in May 2010 now seeing the error of their ways, I wonder? A personal opinion, I accept, but I always thought that the Cameron/Clegg press conference, choreographed to perfection in front of a fawning press cabal, was further depressing evidence of the English middle class colonisation of our politics. It was about as dangerous and interesting as a Prize Day at an English Public School and, believe me, I know because I’ve attended quite a few of them!!

  29. Oldnat

    “There is a strong strand among SNP supporters that has never forgiven the UK/Heath for seeing fishing as being “expendable” in the Common Market negotiations.”

    I think your man, representing an independent Scotland, could fix it, if anyone can.

  30. Clear signs of dementia among the 60+ age group in the Sunday Times poll.

    1) How important, if at all, do you think it is for Britain’s economy that the debt crisis in the Eurozone is solved?

    60+ group
    TOTAL IMPORTANT – 88%
    TOTAL NOT IMPORTANT 6%

    2)Some people think Britain should contribute money to help solve the debt crisis in the Eurozone. Other people think Britain has its own economic problems to address and that countries within the Eurozone should carry the
    cost. Which of the following best reflects your view?

    60+ group
    We should not contribute any money to help solve the debt crisis – 68%
    We should contribute any money to
    help solve the debt crisis – 23%

    Clearly the old dears are incapable of reaching cogent, logically consistent positions. They are a serious threat to democracy, and the vote should be removed from them forthwith.

  31. **Electoral Calculus end of month prediction – October 2011**

    Out today- the new national prediction is that Labour will have a majority of 24 seats, winning 337 seats (up 10 seats since 2 October).

    October generally showed an increase in Labour’s lead over the Conservatives. Five out of six pollsters recorded gains for Labour, though YouGov saw a Conservative gain instead. The polls also showed a weakening of Liberal Democrat support.

    The most recent polls from the six pollsters who published polls in October are:

    ComRes (Independent on Sunday, S. Mirror) has Con 37, Lab 39, Lib 10
    Populus (Times) has Con 33, Lab 41, Lib 8
    Angus Reid has Con 33, Lab 41, Lib 10
    ICM (Guardian) has Con 35, Lab 39, Lib 13
    Ipsos-MORI (Reuters) has Con 34, Lab 38, Lib 12
    YouGov (Sunday Times) has Con 36, Lab 39, Lib 8

    Overall the average (change since 2 October) is Con 35 (no change), Lab 40 (+1), Lib 10 (-2).

  32. CHOUENLAI.

    1945 stands for when our people sang ‘England Arise’ on 26 July 1945.

    I was born in May 1945.

    On 26 July 1945 my Mum’s Irish-born Father, a veteran of Mons cried, when he said everything he had worked for had been achieved.

    You see Chou, he came home from Mons without a foot. So not much work when the then Coalition Government deflated the economy at a time of recession. The dock labourers ‘toed the line’ every morning at the dock gate hoping to be picked out for work each day.
    He had the indignity of selling furniture, and his BEF medals, in exchange for food stamps.
    My Mum was born in 1931.

    So 1945 was when our people were given, and had won, the welfare state, although the outgoing PM had compared my people to the Gestapo. Fancy saying that about Mr Bevin (Ernest) and Major Attlee!

    You know what Nye said when Churchill called him The minister of disease, and Attlee getting out of an empty car.

    And yes, an old git i may be called, but in my 97th term of school teaching, not without some trials!

  33. ChrisLane1945

    However, you will have noted that 65% of Scots do support such a change.

    You may never become King of England, but King of Scots might still be a position you can aspire to.

  34. John B Dick

    270 minuets must be very boring.

    I believe Haydn had the same opinion.

    Mind you I’ve always seen Roland more of a volta man

  35. CHRISLANE1945

    “1945 stands for when our people sang ‘England Arise’ on 26 July 1945.”

    OK. King of Scots isn’t something you could aspire to! :-)

    I don’t think any of my people were singing that!

  36. Oldnat & ANN (IN WALES)

    “As I remember, Mandy had many more lucrative skills, than where to insert an apostrophe.”

    I’ve heard many euphemisms in my time, but that one’s new to me.

  37. OLD NAT.

    No.
    Although I am a posh surrey geek, I think I am an Irish-Welshman, so no desire for kingship!

  38. CROSSBAT11
    `Are many of those who were briefly smitten in the Rose Garden on that warm Spring day in May 2010 now seeing the error of their ways, I wonder? A personal opinion, I accept, but I always thought that the Cameron/Clegg press conference, choreographed to perfection in front of a fawning press cabal, was further depressing evidence of the English middle class colonisation of our politics. It was about as dangerous and interesting as a Prize Day at an English Public School and, believe me, I know because I’ve attended quite a few of them!!`
    I am not sure about choreographed…I think there was genuine rapport between Cameron and Clegg,which is what shocked the Lefties,as the Liberal Democrats were lefties too as far as they were concerned…But due to the Referendum and local election results,The LibDems got the message and we are unlikely to see the open expressions of such affection in the near future

  39. Returning to the topic of votes for 16 year olds in the Isle of Man, I’m not really sure how it actually happened. It was rushed in about 5.5 years ago six months before an election. Because the electoral rolls had already been compiled, most 16 and 17 year olds had to be added on request (there is rolling registration) and no one knows how successful it was. They actually managed to muck the register up that time anyway by taking too many people off. This time it took two attempts but they did seem to get the over-16s on.

    That said I wouldn’t surprised if they voted at least as heavily as the population at large. The vast majority would be living at home, so if their parents voted they probably would too. Also a lot of candidates made efforts to talk to sixth formers in their area and there were local hustings at schools. So that should have encouraged turnout.

    Whether 16 year old should have the vote is another issue. Given that they can work full-time and pay taxes, I would say that there is some justification, but rights and responsibilities come in gradually with age and which come at which age is a matter of opinion to some extent. That said to argue that voting and having a political opinion requires greater maturity than say marriage or work might be difficult to argue.

    One thing you certainly can’t argue is that 16 year olds shouldn’t be given the vote because they will vote as their parents wish. Not only has such an argument been used to deny extending the franchise to every group in history, especially women, it also seems to show ignorance of (a) the secret ballot and (b) teenagers.

  40. @Oldnat, Chouenlai,

    BTW, its the soldiers weapon, not gun

    Of course, Oldnat may have been referring to an artilleryman, in which case he’d have been correct…

    Although as I am not aware of an artillery piece that is operated by a single gunner, (a) wouldn’t make much sernse and it should probably be

    (b) It’s the soldiers’ gun.

  41. Sernse makes even less sense than sense..

  42. @ John B Dick

    @I’ve heard many euphemisms in my time, but that one’s new to me.”

    Not a euphemism at all-just a truism.:-

    “”Well, he would, wouldn’t he?” is one of the more famous examples of the correct use of apostrophe, recorded as it now is, in the Oxford Dictionary of Quotations.

  43. ChrisLane1945

    ” I think I am an Irish-Welshman, so no desire for kingship!”

    That didn’t stop Henry VII – descended from the lords of Anglesey, he would also have had Irish/Welsh ancestry! :-)

  44. With all this discussion of Mandy’s apostrophe, we still haven’t heard from Anne about the details of her school’s curriculum!

  45. I speak as a libertarian-conservative who reads blogs, newspapers and so forth, that what I have really noticed is the shift in conservative opinion which this YouGov poll reflects.

    A great number of people are now openly calling for the collapse of the Conservative and Unionist Party – which perhaps shows the steady rise in UKIP support over the past few months and indeed, days.

    I said earlier that in my opinion the Conservative Party cannot win another election, and I think as time passes this will become clearer to those who still reluctantly support the Party.

  46. Dangann

    “A great number of people are now openly calling for the collapse of the Conservative and Unionist Party”,

    Well, Murdo Fraser certainly is (and we should find out on Friday if Scots Tories agree with him). However, a 0% support for UKIP in Scotland, in the latest YG poll, suggests that a name change for your party may be in order.

  47. @DanGann,

    I think you’re slightly overreaching on your party’s behalf their, Dan. UKIP never get about 7%, the Tories never get below 30%. I don’t think there will be a massive reorganisation of the British Right anytime soon (yes, yes, OldNat, excluding in Scotland if there’s independence or Bavarianisation).

    UKIP’s problem is not the country’s opinion on the European Union, it’s the country’s opinion of the salience of opinions on the European Union. People are eurosceptic if asked, but most of them don’t much care to be asked. It’s a bit light discovering that people prefer coffee to tea and basing your whole election campaign on your coffee-making skills.

  48. Aarrgh, “your party’s behalf, there” not “your party’s behalf, their”.

  49. @Old Nat

    Scots Tories

    Are we missing an apostrophe here? :-)

  50. @Neil A – actually I think you’ll find it is very much on the cards. The Conservative Party failed to win the last election remember, against a Party which had been in office for three terms and involved itself in some, to be kind, controversial issues like the Iraq War and so on.

    Now that it is in government, with rising opposition from inside and the outside – there is little hope it can win the next election. If it fails to win the next election then it will simply fall to pieces, it is a dead Party.

    What replaces it remains to be seen, whether in the form of UKIP or a SDP-type splinter group; but either way the right of this country are increasingly counting on it.

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