The full tables for the Sunday Times poll are now up here – as already mentioned last night, the topline figures are CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, Others 16%. The “others” include UKIP at 7%, a figure they also hit once during the week for the Sun, so they certainly seemed to have recieved at least a temporary boost from the issue of Europe returning to the agenda.

Economic optimism remains extremely low. 9% of people expect their financial situation to get better over the next year compared to 57% who expect it to get worse, a net “feel good factor” of minus 48. While this is extremely negative historically, it is fairly typical of 2011 so far, and actually an improvement from the last few weeks when it has been below minus 50. Hardly anyone (3%) expects the present economic problems to be over within a year, 21% think they will pass in the next one or two years, 32% expect them to last three or four years, 24% expect them to last five to ten years.

The bulk of the poll is questions on Europe. Only 5% of people think that Britain has a lot of influence in the EU, 32% think Britain has a little influence, 41% not a lot and 15% none. 34% of people think that Britain has less influence than we did under Tony Blair and 45% think we have less influence than under Thatcher.

41% of respondents thought that Britain would be better off if we left the EU, 29% think we would be worse off and 30% neither or don’t know – a familar pattern of Euroscepticism. 41% of people think that David Cameron should use the current problems in the EU as an opportunity to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Europe, 27% think Cameron should wait until the present crisis has passed to renegotiate, 15% think no renegotiation is needed. 59% of people think that Conservative rebels were right to vote for a referendum, compared to 22% who think they were wrong.

On the wider Eurozone crisis people are evenly split about whether the EU should be attempting to save the Eurozone – 36% think it is right to spend money on trying to save it, 39% think it is wrong. A majority, however, think that countries like Greece who are unable to pay their debts should be made to leave. Respondents do have considerable confidence in Angela Merkel to make the necessarily decisions to solve the crisis – 56% of people said they had a lot or a little confidence in her, compared to 36% who have confidence in Nicholas Sarkozy and just 8% for Silvio Berlusconi.

82% of people think it is important for Britain’s economy that the crisis in the Eurozone is solved. However, a good majority people remain opposed to Britain contributing money to any Eurozone bailout – only 24% think Britain should contribute, with 58% opposed.

Turning to the employment questions, 38% of people would back laws making it easier to sack unproductive workers. 19% think that workers’ rights are not protected enough and there should be greater protection from dismissal, 31% think the current balance is about right.

On maternity and paternity leave, 39% think current maternity provision is about right, 29% think it is too generous and 18% not generous enough. 31% think paternity provision is about right, 24% too generous and 31% not generous enough. Men are more likely than women to think that both maternity and paternity leave is too generous.

On staying at home to look after children, very similar proportions of men and women would stay at home to look after their children if their partner earned enough. 65% of men with children and 62% of women with children said they would stay at home to look after the children. However, attitudes are different when we asked about respondents’ spouses – 82% of men would be happy for their spouse or partner to stay at home and look after the children, however only 56% of women would be happy for their spouse/partner to stay at home.

On the Royal questions, 76% of people supporting giving female children equal rights to succeed to the throne with only 13% opposed. There was less support for ending the ban on a Catholic becoming monarch – 48% thought it should be allowed, 33% thought it should not.

Finally on the London protests, while people are sympathetic to the aims of the protestors, they would tend to support legal action to remove them from outside St Pauls. 39% say they support the aims of the protesters, 26% do not and 35% are unsure. 47%, however, would support legal action to remove them with 39% opposed. 53% of people think St Paul’s Cathedral was wrong to close its doors (31% think they were right), while 42% of people think that Giles Fraser was wrong to resign (31% think he was right).


240 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times: full report”

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  1. Chouenlai

    That aspect of Chamberlain’s stalling for time has often been ignored.

    Without it, the radar network (Chain Home) would not have been in place, and the UK could have been successfully invaded.

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  2. @”according to Peston:

    “For Papandreou, plebiscite may be only way to get Greece back to work. But if he loses, presumably it’s default & even possible euro exit”

    But the bailout deal INCLUDES a default-a 50% default conducted in a managed way, ( allegedly) with commensurate recapitalisation of exposed banks.( allegedly)

    If the Greeks say no to “the bailout”-that means what?-80%. 90% , 100% default??

    PASOK barely has a majority now. THats the problem-weak politicians with no power to carry policy-passing the parcel to “the people”.

    Jeez, SArkozy & Merkel will rue the day they let Greece in to EZ.

    TRichet said today that ALL countries & their politicians were culpable in that decision.

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  3. @ Chou Enlai

    You wrote: “Don’t be to hard on Chamberlain. 70% of Tories very much agreed with him. So did most of the Royal Family, 100% of the Labour Party and most Liberals. Only the Tory warmonger Churchill and his associates, (those few Tories who didn’t think he was a wind bag from yesteryear), knew Hitler had to be stopped.”

    I don’t think I am being too hard on him. He made a mistake but he made one in an attempt to avoid war. I’m not saying ignore the bad because of good intentions but at least take it into account.

    @ Ian Anthony James

    You wrote “100% of the Labour Party supported Chamberlain? When? That is a big load of Big Society. From 1937, Labour officially opposed appeasement.

    But you are right about the Tory Party and their truly shameful policy of giving support to Hitler.”

    I’m sure that you’re right on the first part.

    On the second part, I’m not sure that it’s a fair characterization. There may have been some Tories who personally supported Hitler or sympathized with him or even his goals but I don’t think they were reflective of the party as a whole. Chamberlain’s position of appeasement I don’t think can be fairly characterized as the Tories supporting Hitler so much as it was a tactical decision that was erroneously believed would help avoid World War II.

    @ Both of You

    We sold tin to the Japanese during the 1930′s and in hindsight we probably shouldn’t have. They took all that tin and turned into bombers and fighter jets which they used to attack China, Southeast Asia, and then eventually us. But I wouldn’t characterize it as supporting the Japanese. We sold them the tin because it was the Great Depression and we needed the money and here was an opportunity. I don’t think that was supporting Japanese aims, just a strategic mistake.

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  4. OLDNAT

    THanks

    Yes that is clearly one possible route.

    But its the central issue of EU governance which is key. As described in Der Speigal that has already become exclusive of the “outs”.

    Did you note Sarko’s remark that , apart from UK & DK-the rest of the 10 WOULD jointhe euro-so no problem !!

    ( actually I thought Sweden has signalled it too has no intention of joining -and is using the subterfuge which Martyn set out a while ago)

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  5. Chouenlai
    That is interesting. 100% was just you being provocative again.

    The aristocratic Tories (Churchill excepted possibly),”The Guilty Men”, would have preferred Hitlerism to any form of socialism.

    I take your point that appeasement might have ended up with a quite fortunate result of buying the breathing space that Britain needed. You can’t give historic characters credit for good fortune.

    As Kant might have said, the only good is the good intention. Chamberlain falls down by that criterion.

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  6. Oh no. Of course “don’t tell the truth” should have read “do tell the truth.”

    Decides to pour herself another glass, 8-(

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  7. OldNat,

    Was Chamberlain really stalling or was he appeasing? If he was stalling, he could have done much better. I do think that appeasement has had a bad reputation (particularly due to hacks like the Cato writers) in terms of its outcomes and a stalling strategy was the best tactic, but that doesn’t mean that appeasement was the best tactic.

    By-the-by, I do remember Nicholas Kaldor getting himself all tied up in knots about Chamberlain’s chancellorship. Was Chamberlain a great chancellor for his protectionism and the strength of the 1930s recovery, or was he a bad chancellor because he was a Tory & appeased Hitler? Kaldor wanted to believe both.

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  8. IANANTHONYJAMES

    “As Kant might have said, the only good is the good intention. Chamberlain falls down by that criterion.”

    In that case you have to explain why (in addition to appeasement) Chamberlain followed a policy of rapid rearmament. Without that, Churchiil could have made as many sppeches as he liked, the UK would still have been invaded.

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  9. Why no comment on changes in the leader ratings? Has Cameron gone down and Ed gone up, it must be so otherwise it would be mentioned!

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  10. Oldnat & Bill Patrick

    “I think that “most people” taking that view would only be “most” of a very small group – Scots who are prepared to look back at those days and compare the Scottish Office Ministers favourably with the rest of the Government while managing to look at that period with a degree of disengagement.

    So there’s me, and you and ?”

    Count me in, John Mackay didn’t eat babies either, but what about Lord James Douglas-Hamilton, who when an MSP disclosed (to much surprise) that he and colleagues at the Scottish Offie had fought off inapproriate privatisation of lifeline ferry services.

    That was in the same week as the parliament’s best known republican warned against precipitous removal of mediaeval rights of the crown, and the only Socialist spoke up for small business.

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  11. @OLDNAT
    Even without rearmament, Hitler invading the UK is somewhat unlikely – they simply didn’t have the ships to transport significant numbers of troops across the channel. Operation Sealion was doomed to failure from the start.

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  12. chouenlai @ JOHN B DICK

    “[Dancing] would save the NHS a great deal of money, if some sort of fitness regime could be introduced up there.”

    Actually it wouldn’t save money, despite what people tell you. It’s coffin dodgers like me that cost money, collecting their pensions, ad aving hip replacements and a long period of terminal care and support.

    The obese smoker who dies from his first heart attack in his late 50′s having contributed to a pension fund for 30 years, is much cheaper.

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  13. @IanAnthonyJames

    “The aristocratic Tories (Churchill excepted possibly),”The Guilty Men”, would have preferred Hitlerism to any form of socialism.”

    And don’t forget the shameful stance taken by quite a large section of the right wing press in the 1930s too. Lord Rothermore, friend and supporter of Lord Beaverbrook of Daily Express fame and owner of the Daily Mail, moved that paper to an increasingly pro-fascist stance in the 30s, supporting Oswald Moseley and his National Union of Fascists. He thought Mosely displayed “sound, common sense Conservative doctrine.” He also met Hitler on a number of occasions, claiming him to be a “man of peace”. He, and his paper, vigorously supported Chamberlain and his policy of appeasement and he was said to be devastated when we eventually went to war against Germany.

    Beaverbrook’s pre-war stance was a little more ambivalent and he did go on to become a leading member of Churchill’s wartime coalition government; and quite a good one too, it has to be said.

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  14. @IanAnthonyJames

    “The aristocratic Tories (Churchill excepted possibly),”The Guilty Men”, would have preferred Hitlerism to any form of socialism.”

    And don’t forget the shameful stance taken by quite a large section of the right wing press in the 1930s too. Lord Rothermore, friend and supporter of Lord Beaverbrook of Daily Express fame and owner of the Daily Mail, moved that paper to an increasingly pro-fascist stance in the 30s, supporting Oswald Moseley and his National Union of Fascists. He thought Mosely displayed “sound, common sense Conservative doctrine.” He also met Hitler on a number of occasions, claiming him to be a “man of peace”. He, and his paper, vigorously supported Chamberlain and his policy of appeasement and he was said to be devastated when we eventually went to war against Germany.

    Beaverbrook’s pre-war stance was a little more ambivalent and he did go on to become a leading member of Churchill’s wartime coalition government; and quite a good one too, it has to be said.

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  15. GREENCHRISTIAN

    As both sides knew perfectly well, the key to invasion was air power. Without radar and rearmament under Chamberlain, the Battle of Britain would have been very short, and the UK would have lost it.

    With control of the skies, the Luftwaffe would have destroyed any attempt by the Navy to oppose the landings.

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  16. John B Dick

    Good points. Like many at the time, I didn’t understand (because it was kept well hidden) just how much effort the Scottish Office under Thatcher expended in avoiding the worst excesses of Thatcher’s ideological crusade being exported to Scotland.

    Fortunately, they were very skilled in using Thatcher’s language to disguise the fact that they were limiting her policies. Since she neither understood (or cared much about) Scotland, their strategy worked.

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  17. A great article in the Guardian by a Greek :-

    h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/31/greece-default-euro-consequences?newsfeed=true

    I like this :-

    “On paper a parliamentary democracy, Greece is a de facto oligarchy, ruled since 1974 by a faux aristocracy ensconced in a ghetto of self-awarded privilege. Often sharing the same private schools, foreign universities and blood ties, they have insulated themselves from the contagion of citizenship by altering the constitution, effectively placing themselves above the law.

    This thuggish minority functions in splendid isolation from the people who must depend on them for responsible leadership”

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  18. There’s a good argument to be made that WW2 was lost by a single German bomber crew accidentally bombing a suburban area on its way back from an abortive attack on an airfield.

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  19. Neil A

    There all number of pivotal points that can be identified in a war. However, if the RAF had not been supplied with Wellington bombers from 1938, then that accidental bomb drop on suburban London would have remained unanswered.

    The previous generation of bombers had neither the range or capacity to inflict damage on Berlin.

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  20. Colin

    “On paper a parliamentary democracy, Greece is a de facto oligarchy, ruled since 1974 by a faux aristocracy ensconced in a ghetto of self-awarded privilege.”

    Sounds rather like all the other “mature” democracies doesn’t it?

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  21. @all re the 1938 war

    The historian/authour Williamson Murray discusses this in “More What If?” (http://www.amazon.co.uk/More-What-If-Eminent-Historians/dp/0330487256 ) and concludes that since the German armed forces had not yet been fully reinforced with men and materiel, Germany would have lost a much shorter war

    Regards, Martyn

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  22. Ahem,a most interesting discussion of the causes of the
    2nd world war.Now, the 3rd world war began in Greece?

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  23. Martyn

    Even in 1944, Germany wasn’t fully mobilized for war!

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  24. Martyn,hello ,we have not heard from you for ages.I trust
    you are well.Regards,Ann.

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  25. @all re the Greek referendum

    The Greek referendum will be to accept or reject the (recently agreed) EU deal. It’s intended to be held “within a few weeks”/”early next year”. See http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031

    Some of you may remember I set out three ways in which the Euro could split: the Stephanie Flanders way (people withdraw cash from Greek banks and do not redeposit it anywhere); the Open Europe way (a government prints Euros sans ECB permission); and the Roger Bootle way (a government can no longer sell bonds denominated in Euros at any feasible interest rate).

    If the referendum rejects the deal, the Greek Government is in trouble: it’s so deeply in debt, it’s borrowing to cover its salary payments. So if EU/ECB/IMF money stops coming in, all Greek civil servants stop being paid anything. So the probability of one or more of the above happening goes up *very* quickly…

    Ooops.

    Regards, Martyn

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  26. @ Chouenlai
    ‘t is where Chamberlain did the nation a great service, he bought 18 months. Dalton the pacifist had turned his face at any kind of rearmament, so eventually in 1937 you dumped him for Attlee.’
    There appears to be a lot of confusion here.Hugh Dalton was never Labour leader – nor was he a pacifst.. Attlee succeeded George Lansbury – who was a pacifist – in 1935 not 1937.

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  27. @Ann (In Wales)

    Why thank you young lady: yes, I am well. I’ve had the builders in after an implausible piece of DIY went pear-shaped in the time-hallowed “Grand Designs” way (hatch implausible scheme, get builders in, run out of money, try to finish it by self, mess it up totally, end up giving arm and leg to builders whilst saying “look, just finish it OK, please, please”…such a cliche, but horribly true)

    Regards, Martyn

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  28. Phil,there do not seem to have been any great earthquakes round here about the rugby.The Welsh are a
    pretty amiable lot on the whole.But to loose by one point.
    Cruel.

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  29. “These five men, working together in Europe and blessed in their efforts by the President of the United States of America, might make themselves eternal benefactors of the human race.”

    Samuel Hoare speaking about Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Edouard Daladier, Joseph Stalin and Neville Chamberlain in March 1939.

    Hoare and Chamberlain seem to have been opposed to rearmament. Halifax, dispite mistaking Hitler for a footman, also had deep German sympathies (Cliveden set), Eden belatedly began to see Mussolini as the threat to Briish interests.

    Geoffrey Dawson, the London Times editor, was also part of the Civeden set, and along with a number of Conservative politicians was a member of the pro-Nazi Anglo-German Fellowship.

    More likely it was FO officials who pressed for a pragmatic rearmament, to which ministers agreed with reluctance.

    Without the agitation of “premature anti-facists” like Claud Cockburn, and the FO officials who leaked information to him, it is debatable whether the establishment would have woken up in time to the dangers inherent in their unquestioning weltanschauung.

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  30. Well Martyn,I am flattered but I am alas, no longer young!
    Yes builders are a pain.We have just had some windows
    replaced and I found myself close to having a nervous
    breakdown,what with all the not turning up on time,if at all,
    etc.Still they are done now,nearly five months after the
    agreed date.LOL.

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  31. Billy Bob,

    Having supporters like Claud Cockburn probably did the anti-fascist movement more harm than good. That said, perhaps it’s a good thing that he had no influence on the government: otherwise, the UK wouldn’t have acted when Poland was invaded, since Cockburn became a big fan of appeasement after the Nazi-Soviet pact.

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  32. Fortunately, 1n 10 minutes time, we can leap forward 70 years, and see the ComRes poll! :-)

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  33. Here’s my two-pennyworth or five to throw into the hat.
    Other relevant points, all of which support @Martyn’s view, are that:
    - British rearmament, although significant in 1937 and 1938, didn’t really accelerate onto a war footing until restrictions were lifted when Chamberlain finally saw the light with the annexation of Czechslovakia in March 1939, showing what might have been achieved earlier.
    - The Soviet Union was in 1938 one of the guarantors to Czechslovakia and their being frozen out of Munich is regarded as one of the factors leading to their change in allegiance in 1939.
    - The Czechs, unlike the Poles, had a modernised army and strong border defences and were expected to have put up a stout resistance. Munich transferred those border defences to the Germans. Their tanks were incorporated into the German army (notably the heavy PzKpw 38(T)) and used in the invasion of France, over 1000 Czech-built tanks eventually being used by the Wehrmacht.
    - Without appeasement, the Spanish Republic would not have collapsed in the face of a UK/France enforced arms embargo.
    - Had, nonetheless, we faced invasion a year early in 1939, Chain Home radar was already in operation as evidenced by its detection by the Germans that summer.

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  34. PHIL.
    I agree with every word of your post, brilliant: Thank you.

    And it took 2 days for Chamberlain to act over Poland. Hence Leo Amory shouted: Speak for England when Mr Greenwood (Arthur I think) rose for Her Majesty’s Opposition to respond to Chamberlain’s statement.

    But as I have taught about in recent years, and learned more about World War One, I understand more why so many people were determined to avoid another War

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  35. ComRes
    Lab 38 : Con 34 : LD & others both 14

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  36. Further narrowing on YouGov.

    Seems like Cameron’s not dead in the water quite yet…

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  37. Tories up by 3% and Labour up by 2% in tonight’s YouGov, yet in the ComRes, compared to the last ComRes poll on the 13th October, Labour are down 1% and the Tories down 4%.

    Does anybody have the faintest idea what’s going on out there??

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  38. @Crossbat11

    You said “…Does anybody have the faintest idea what’s going on out there??…”

    Hmmm…the Eurozone is turning into Den Grossen Deutsch Bundesrepublik aus der Hölle, the UK is turning itself into an offshore occupied territory for our new banker overlords, the Chinese have bought half of Africa, India has a space program, Russia thinks Putin is just scrummy, America is more in debt than a princess with Daddy’s credit cards, we’re running out of oil, and builders charge VAT at 20%.

    Don’t look at me, squire: I just work here… :-)

    @Ann(In Wales)

    Tell me about it… :-( :-(

    Regards, Martyn

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  39. Our resident psephologist reviews the proposed boundary commission changes on Cumbria.
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2011/11/steep-hill-for-labour-to-climb-in-cumbria/

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