Last night’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9% (full tabs are here). Seven points is the biggest Labour lead since September. I’ll add my usual caveats about not over-interpreting small movements in polls – this could be a knock in government support from the infighting over Europe, or could just be normal margin of error.


243 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 42, LDEM 9”

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  1. Henry,I suspect that the reason that successive Govts
    have ignored this,is for the simple reason that apart from
    the rather small number of people who stand to inherit the
    throne,no one else is particularly interested in this.Also
    if this is Camerons way of trying to win back the female
    vote that is deserting the Conservatives ,well,I do not
    think he is on to a winner.

  2. Henry: The super-rich seem to be immune from Govt. Labour did absolutely nothing to control massive pay increases, tax avoidance, etc of these privileged few, and so I don’t think it is just to do with donations to the Tory Party.

    The income gap will forever widen under the capitalist economic model. It’s not only impossible to avoid but capitalism pretty much depends on it.

    We could hike up taxes further for the wealthy, and engage in a bit more wealth distribution, but to have any real impact, the top end tax rate would need to be so high that we would only succeed in driving every successful executive and entrepreneur overseas.

    The UK’s top tax rate is now >60% (incl NI) and we are already losing our best and brightest enough as it is.

  3. What a classic reaction. There can be no slight good or improvement, in anything this coalition do. If a Labour supporter said, “I don’t care for the monarchy, but at least this ends sectarianism and sexism, so its fine”. But no, David Cameron is PM so its a load of cobblers. I think it proves one of my points

  4. well I am sure I am going to worry all night about which
    of your many points that might be.LOL.
    Off out to dinner now,bye.

  5. Chou,

    Precisely. Somewhat disappointed to be unable to call ‘house’ as I still have “cynical ploy” and “PR stunt” left but no doubt they’ll be drawn soon.

    And you’d think Harriet might have at least something to say about it ?

  6. 12% for the Scottish Greens? Is this some wild outlier or has there been a trend that I’ve completely missed?
    —————————————-
    One poll does not make a trend & Scottish x-breaks are notoriously off-side but still…… this could be one to watch.

    ABT voters who don’t trust Labour, & aren’t pro-independence, could have decided on the Greens. I’m not sure if the Greens have taken a stance on independence either way (I think they are for a referendum but haven’t said if they have a preference regarding the outcome) & this may make them attractive to voters in Scotland.
    8-)

  7. @Henry – ” I am surprised (but impressed that the Coalition appear to be aiming to reform donations.”

    ?!**? Absolutely baffled by that statement. Last week Cameron personally intervened in the workings of the independent commission set up to look at party donations. This non political enquiry was minded to limit donations to £10,000 and tighten up rules on union donations so that individuals would be better represented by their political donations. Your man Cammo sent a very direct message to the commission saying that he didn’t support their proposals and wants to have a £50,000 donations cap.

    Whatever you lot are being told, the coalition isn’t about reforming party funding.

  8. @Colin

    You said “…Does anyone know which of the non EZ 10 are in transition to EZ membership , and which do not want EZ membership?…”

    And as if by magic, I appear… :-)

    OK, the de jure answer to your question is “all EU states except UK and Denmark are obliged to adopt the Euro eventually”. The de facto answer to your question is “None of the non-EZ10 will adopt the Euro for several years and maybe never”. There is a precedent for this: Sweden is obliged to enter the Euro but is not obliged to enter the EMS (the preconditions for the Euro), so by assiduously not commencing the adoption procedure it can cheerfully not adopt it – it’s the loophole from hell.

    There was an interesting Reuters article on this http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/28/us-poland-euro-idUSTRE79R1OO20111028 . If the cheerfully Euroenthusiastic (and recent election winner) Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, is kicking Euro membership into the long grass, presumably the more Eurosceptic states will be even less keen.

    It’ll be interesting to see if Euro adoption picks up once the kerfuffle dies down: a pointer would be Croatia, who intends to join the EU soon, enter the EMS, then adopt the Euro some years thereafter. If it stays on course, then presumably the others will do so eventually: if it goes “ecch” and puts it to the side of the plate, then the others will similarly make their excuses.

    Regards, Martyn

  9. @Chouenlai – I give Cameron credit for the succession move. I’ve been arguing for years that the system is neolithic and the anti catholic bias is very wrong. Well done for changing it.

  10. Ann (in Wales)
    ‘Henry,I suspect that the reason that successive Govts
    have ignored this,is for the simple reason that apart from
    the rather small number of people who stand to inherit the
    throne,no one else is particularly interested in this.’

    I think it was rather pathetic that these issues involving the Head of State were not addressed until now. However, I suspect that you are right in what you say.

  11. Amberstar

    I take it you are not serious!

    The sub samples can tell us something but only if you take them over a period of several days and average them out.

    On YouGov this week Labour and SNP are locked together at 35% Tories 19 and Libs 6.

    Add in Populus, ICM, Angus Reid and MORI and you get a convincing SNP lead.

    I would not hold your breath for the Green performance on YOUGOV come Sunday.

  12. Martyn

    THanks for that-was just grinding through Wiki on it.

    Yes-UK & DK have an opt out.
    Sweden as you say has found some subterfuge for never qualifying…………the rest are legally obliged to join …….when they meet the convergence criteria…………..which include:-

    Deficit to GDP 3% max
    Total DEbt to GDP 60% max

    :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-)

  13. Alec
    ‘Whatever you lot are being told, the coalition isn’t about reforming party funding’.

    I don’t think you were baffled as you referred to the independent enquiry that the Govt set up. Perhaps we should wait and see – I am aware of DC’s involvement, and we will have to see the outcome

    If donations are reformed them all credit to the Coalition is not then at least on this point they are no better then the previous Govts.

    I see you approve of the the Coalition move on succession; clearly in your view nothing to do with LD influence.

  14. And whilst I am commenting on x-breaks… a 10 point lead for Labour in London! I’m looking forward to another London Mayor poll as soon as possible (although it’s an AV type of thing, right?).

    Although… Saturday night is usually a down poll for Labour so probably 10 points is a blip… :-(

  15. Steve

    ‘The income gap will forever widen under the capitalist economic model. It’s not only impossible to avoid but capitalism pretty much depends on it.’

    I agree in terms of global capitalism it is difficult. However, ther e is only so much that people will tolerate. It will be interesting to see whether the Coalition, with the influence of the LDs, will introduce anything that will appease many of us who are sick of the behaviour of the greedy few.

  16. @Colin

    You’re welcome.

    Regards, Martyn

  17. Good point Ann

    The change of the male primogeniture rule is of minor interest really. If we are going to have the absurdity of a hereditary monarchy continuing into the 21st century why not throw in some traditional sexism and anti Roman Catholic discrimination?

    I wonder if the Roman Catholic church will reciprocate and end their anti-Protestant discrimination. Maybe the next Pope will be a black lesbian Protestant. No?

  18. HENRY

    @”However, ther e is only so much that people will tolerate.”

    There is Henry.

    It is a serious political problem for the Coalition.

  19. @ Alec- ‘I give Cameron credit for the succession move…

    This change is from Clegg not Cameron. It’s the kind of tiny bone thrown from time-to-time to the LibDems. Tragic for all of us they have such a small appetite.

  20. Amberstar:

    “I’m looking forward to another London Mayor poll as soon as possible (although it’s an AV type of thing, right?).”

    I’m hoping (and the opinion polls suggest there’s a chance of this) that Boris loses on first preference votes but overtakes Ken on the second vote. I don’t live in London so it’s really none of my business, but I’d love to see David Cameron’s reaction after banging on about how unfair that sort of thing is.

    In the meantime, is our esteemed Prime Minister going to comment on the fairness of the Irish Presidential election, chosen by – yes, you’ve guessed it – AV. I’d have thought that if, as it appear, Higgins got around 40% of the first preference votes and is around 15% ahead of the closest contender (and there’s no reason to believe that the 60% who didn’t vote for him want anyone but him), I’d have thought he’s the clear winner under any voting system, but I’m eagerly waiting for a real example of AV that’s “unfair” or “complicated”, whatever that’s supposed to mean.

  21. Alec: @Henry – ” I am surprised (but impressed that the Coalition appear to be aiming to reform donations.”

    ?!**? Absolutely baffled by that statement. Last week Cameron personally intervened in the workings of the independent commission set up to look at party donations. This non political enquiry was minded to limit donations to £10,000 and tighten up rules on union donations so that individuals would be better represented by their political donations. Your man Cammo sent a very direct message to the commission saying that he didn’t support their proposals and wants to have a £50,000 donations cap.

    Whatever you lot are being told, the coalition isn’t about reforming party funding.

    What’s the current limit?

  22. In search of the answer myself (which is “there is no current limit”), I found that in 2001, Labour MPs called for a limit to be set at £100,000,

  23. Steve

    ‘In search of the answer myself (which is “there is no current limit”), I found that in 2001, Labour MPs called for a limit to be set at £100,000’

    Thanks for that Steve.
    Looks like the Coalition can expect some opposition whether they propose £10,000 or £50,000.

  24. IANANTHONYJAMES
    ‘Good point Ann’

    The thing is what Labour say among themselves or on political sites among other activists is not what they tell the general public, many of whom believe (mistakenly) that they accept hereditary monarchy in the 21st century.

    In any case as a LD I am opposed to continued discrimination on the grounds of race, sex or religion wherever it is practised, and welcome reform.

  25. @crossbat11 – “How did she fare last night?”

    My comment was a response to a poster who had remarked on BBC balance… there being two Tories plus a coalition LD and the Ukip leader up against Gloria Del Piero on QT.

    In answer to your question, she didn’t get bogged down (unlike some) in nit-picking disputes with other panellists, but gave concise anwers direct to the audience. I never watch morning television, so wasn’t aware of her before – TV presence and straightforward communication were very much in evidence.

  26. Succession – I bet it’s still ‘ageist’ though… first born (oldest) loses & has to be ‘it’ or faces the hassle of abdicating. :-)

  27. IAN MCKAY

    ‘This change is from Clegg not Cameron. It’s the kind of tiny bone thrown from time-to-time to the LibDems. Tragic for all of us they have such a small appetite.’

    Thanks for putting Alec right on this matter. I am disappointed that LDs do not have more influence; however given the small proportion of seats I believe we had a range of tiny bones and have achieved things, such as taking millions of lower paid out of income tax payment, that Labour did not even contemplate despite massive overall majorities.

  28. AMBERSTAR

    ‘Succession – I bet it’s still ‘ageist’ though… first born (oldest) loses & has to be ‘it’ or faces the hassle of abdicating.’

    You must have been reading my mind; I believe our beloved leader has discussed with DC a rotating monarchy, from William/Harry onwards – but they could not agree DC wanted 5 year stints to run alongside 5 year GE but NC felt alternative days of the week would be fairer.

  29. @Henry
    “……and have achieved things, such as taking millions of lower paid out of income tax payment, ”

    Hear, hear! I think the Tories had increasing the basic allowance as an aim as well, but I very much doubt that the process would have started yet without the LDs. It’s the only measure so far that has benefited ordinary people as far as I can remember. FWIW I think the tax threshold should be the same figure as the minimum wage, while we still have one.
    ———————-
    To those anti-monarchists on here: The monarchy is essential because it is above politics. Does anyone seriously want to see President Blair, or Kinnock, or Thatcher?
    Also in time of war (which may be sooner than we think according to Angela Merkel), a national figurehead above politics helps to unite the country.

  30. Pete B

    ” The monarchy is essential because it is above politics. ”

    You may see it as desireable, but you are over-egging the Royal Pudding (copyright South Park).

    If it was “essential”, then no country could operate without a monarch.

  31. @Billy Bob

    “In answer to your question, she didn’t get bogged down (unlike some) in nit-picking disputes with other panellists, but gave concise anwers direct to the audience. I never watch morning television, so wasn’t aware of her before – TV presence and straightforward communication were very much in evidence.”

    Thanks. I suspected she might be quite good and along with people like Rachel Reeves (very good on Radio 4’s Any Questions tonight, I thought, as I listened whilst soaking in my weekly bath!) Stella Creasy and Chuka Umunna, she represents a new generation of emerging Labour politicians In the case of Reeves, Creasy and Umunna, their rapid promotion to the Labour front bench is testimony to Milliband’s recent abandonment of shadow cabinet elections. I suspect none of them would have been elected by what was once called the most sophisticated electorate in the world!!

    As for all this lather and piffle about the “radical” constitutional changes announced today in terms of succession to the throne. We live in a supposed mature democracy, currently beset by some of the most serious economic problems that I have seen in my lifetime, and we’re wasting breath and valuable time on a discussion about the intricacies and niceties of the monarchy. Let me put my views on record, at risk of being whisked off to the Tower to become food for the ravens. I couldn’t give the merest squeak of a tinker’s cuss!!

    Now, off with my head!!

  32. Pete B: To those anti-monarchists on here: The monarchy is essential because it is above politics. Does anyone seriously want to see President Blair, or Kinnock, or Thatcher?

    The apolitical nature of the Monarch, tied with the millennia of its history with our country and that it’s not been tainted by some distasteful scandal in living memory (I really don’t think we can count ‘Edward VIII & Wallace Simpson’ anymore!) gets it my vote.

    I also quite like that she is referred to everywhere as simply ‘The Queen’ with no further elaboration needed. Ol’ Betty’s right up there with ‘The Pope’ and ‘The Dalai Lama’…although they are spoilt by having a unique job-title.

    But ‘The President’?

  33. @Billy Bob
    “In answer to your question, she didn’t get bogged down (unlike some) in nit-picking disputes with other panellists, but gave concise anwers direct to the audience. I never watch morning television, so wasn’t aware of her before – TV presence and straightforward communication were very much in evidence.”
    She was concise in her answers,but you could tell she didn`t really have the grasp of her subject. ..But given her first major experience,it could be forgiven..I thought Jo Swinson was quite good…You can also tell that voters have forgiven the past when they gave a huge applause when Gloria said ` Say what you want about Gordon Brown,but the G20 looked towards him to sort out the economic problems`

  34. Crossbat 11
    ‘Now, off with my head!!’

    Obviously, as a citizen you are entitled to your own opinion, as are all the other labour posters who have indicated they agree with you. Clearly the vast majority of Labour activists do not support the monarchy; hopefully the Labour Party is this very moment including a paragraph on the abolition of the monarchy in its policies for the 2015 GE.

  35. HENRY
    `Obviously, as a citizen you are entitled to your own opinion, as are all the other labour posters who have indicated they agree with you. Clearly the vast majority of Labour activists do not support the monarchy; hopefully the Labour Party is this very moment including a paragraph on the abolition of the monarchy in its policies for the 2015 GE.`
    Maybe I am stating the obvious,but the Labour party aren`t going to commit political hara-kiri till the Queen is alive and the Royal family is hugely popular…Can just see the Daily Mail headlines don`t you?

  36. Steve

    We could hike up taxes further for the wealthy, and engage in a bit more wealth distribution, but to have any real impact, the top end tax rate would need to be so high that we would only succeed in driving every successful executive and entrepreneur overseas.

    The UK’s top tax rate is now >60% (incl NI) and we are already losing our best and brightest enough as it is.

    All together now boys and girls “Oh no, it isn’t”. It’s 52% because you don’t pay full National Insurance on any earnings over a certain amount per week. This (very) roughly at the level you start paying the 40% tax rate (obviously this is much complicated by allowances). All you pay is a surcharge of 2% on earnings over that level.

    Effectively this means there are three combined Tax & NI rates: 32%, 42% and 52%. Given that you can be pretty poor and paying the first and have be earning well in excess of £150k for the third, it’s hardly an enormous gradient. And of course you only pay higher rates on earnings in excess of the limits, so the percentage you pay of your total income is much lower.

    And of course that’s before you consider all the ways in which the wealthy can arrange to pay less tax. Once you take that into account you can see why some of the rich in Britain really can pay less as a percentage in tax than their cleaners do.

    As far as ‘every successful executive and entrepreneur’ who will flee the country, I doubt it. Most are in the UK because that is where they earn their money and/or like living. If all they cared about was paying less tax they’d have left for Monaco or Switzerland years ago. In fact ‘executives’ in particular would be pushed to find anywhere that would pay them as much as the latest figures on directors’ pay showed.

    Your concern for the welfare of the wealthy is very touching, but until you join their ranks (I assume you haven’t as you didn’t know about the NI thresholds*), then perhaps you could redirect your worries to those a little less well off.

    * Unless you belong to that other group – the retired-on-enormous-pensions-that-the-rest-of-you-will-have-to-keep-paying-for-and-will-never-get. You don’t pay NI on any earnings from whatever source once you’re over retirement age.

  37. Amber

    Like most political parties in Scotland, theGreens are pro-independence.

  38. SMUKESH
    ‘Maybe I am stating the obvious,but the Labour party aren`t going to commit political hara-kiri till the Queen is alive and the Royal family is hugely popular…Can just see the Daily Mail headlines don`t you?’

    Drat you have seen through my latest cunning plan for a LD revival.

  39. @ Henry

    You must have been reading my mind; I believe our beloved leader has discussed with DC a rotating monarchy, from William/Harry onwards – but they could not agree DC wanted 5 year stints to run alongside 5 year GE but NC felt alternative days of the week would be fairer.
    ————————————-
    LOL :-) In a blow to constitutional snobbery, Amberstar suggests a sort of X-factor type contest.

    All eligible royals can put their name forward (or not, if they have any sense). Those who are in it to win it must then perform royal duties each week for the viewing public’s vote: Troop the Colours without falling off their horse, sit through a Royal Variety Performance without nipping out every 5 minutes for a cigarette & a stiff drink etc…

    At the end, the participating public get to vote. That would take the public’s mind off Europe & the Economy for a few weeks (or months, if they really stretched it out). :-)

  40. John B Dick

    They certainly were, but their 2011 manifesto seemed to resile from that position (I initially mistyped that as revile :-) ).

  41. @Smukesh/Henry

    My attitude to the monarchy is one of monumental indifference. You’re probably right about a majority of the electorate in being in favour of retaining the Monarchy, but a lot of this support is a result of a largely deferential audience being spoon-fed regular dollops of nostalgia and sentimentality. Most of the great nations of the world discarded the anachronism of monarchy centuries ago, but I have no desire to abolish what is clearly, if somewhat mysteriously, an institution that is cherished by so many of my fellow countrymen.

    However, in my more mischievous moments, I do imagine a Queens Speech at the opening of Parliament after the election of a left wing Labour Government. My Lords, pray silence for Her Majesty the Queen. The Queen rises. “My Government is committed to my immediate removal and, accordingly, I will be taken from this place to a suitable place of…………..”

  42. CROSSBAT11

    :-)

  43. @ Old Nat

    I didn’t want to contradict John B, but I recalled the 2011 Green manifesto as being pro-referendum but not taking any particular position regarding the outcome.
    8-)

  44. AMBERSTAR

    ‘At the end, the participating public get to vote. That would take the public’s mind off Europe & the Economy for a few weeks (or months, if they really stretched it out).’

    Brilliant (as usual). Just one small point. I assume we shall be voting using a proportional representation model.

  45. How gratifying in these difficult days, that a poor down trodden council school teacher like Ann can afford to go
    “out to dinner”. And in Wales of all places.

  46. CrossBat 11

    The Queen rises. “My Government is committed to my immediate removal ..”

    Thanks for a bit of humour on a Friday night.

  47. To praise Cameron and/or Clegg, this is probably the last moment for a while that the change in monarchical succession could be addressed easily. With the first three in line to the throne all men, any reordering is unlikely to make a difference to who actually gets to sit on the throne. Once Kate starts popping out sprogs it changes. So it’s not just a fair change but a timely one.

    By the way there is serious talk in Libya of restoring the monarchy in a constitutional role. It’s not a silly as it sounds given that a lot of other Arab states have some form of hereditary rule. That’s not including Egypt, Libya and Yemen, all of which had favoured sons waiting to take over till certain recent events.

  48. Amber

    Meh. been done :twisted:

  49. Roger Mexico

    OK

    Let’s celebrate cultural difference and include the Ottoman variation – where “knockout” had a terminal significance.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_succession_to_the_former_Ottoman_throne

  50. @ Amberstar

    “LOL In a blow to constitutional snobbery, Amberstar suggests a sort of X-factor type contest.”

    I’ve personally always looked for a compulsory public tendering process for regal services. I wonder if Capita or G4S might be interested. Then we could separate out the infrastructure and do a sale and leaseback or IPO.

    Just a thought….

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