Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out today, full details here. Topline voting intention figures with changes since last month are CON 34%(-1), LAB 38%(+1), LDEM 12%(-1), so no significant change on a month ago.

There’s an interesting finding in the questions – MORI asked people how much they had worried about various things in the last two or three weeks, a repeat of a question from earlier on in the economic downturn in February 2009. The proportion of people who said they’d worried about paying their bills hadn’t changed massively (in 2009 32% had, 66% had not. Now 37% had, 60% had not).

There was a much bigger shift in longer term worries though, people worrying about their retirement, or their children’s future. In 2009, 21% of people said they’d worried about their retirement in the last few weeks with 60% saying they hadn’t. The figures now are 34% had (up 13), and 41% hadn’t (down 19). Similarly, in 2009 26% of people said they had recently worried about their children’s job prospects, 55% had not. Those figures have now shifted to 35% who have worried, 38% have not.


168 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Reuters – CON 34, LAB 38, LDEM 12”

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  1. @Neil A – “Generalisations are never particular wise… ”

    It was the sense that scale of the problem seemed insurmountable in terms of any specific policy option (the question was about sentencing) which prompted either Fellowes or Farrage (I couldn’t tell which) to puncture the ‘something mist be done rant’ with “And how long will that take?”

  2. @Some here

    Will disputably UKish suffice?

  3. @ Henry

    “Learn more about politics and in particular the views of Labour, Tory, Scottish Nationalists, Green and SOCALLIBERAL”

    We’re not so different, you and I. It’s just that I consider myself neither an Asquith Liberal or a Gladstone Liberal but instead an Earl Warren Liberal. :)

    Besides, of the 4 Prime Ministers and one Deputy Prime Minister sitting on stage during Obama’s joint address to Parliament, the only one who actually enjoyed the speech and seemed genuinely pleased was Nick Clegg.

  4. @ Old Nat

    “Congratulations.”

    Thanks. There were some who spoke authoritatively on the state of UK governance and politics who were completely clueless about the powers and role of Scotland’s government. One took offense over my comments on your list system. I think it was too long but someone actually complimented me for making it uncomplicated and easy to read.

    I’ve only been on the rec list once in my entire 6 plus years on that site and frankly, I really stopped frequently blogging there in early 2007 and only frequently popped in for the last 4 years but I’ve been going there more frequently of late to improve my blogging skills.

  5. @ Chris Lane

    Since you’re often posting sports news on here, I’ll just share some of my own.

    I just watched one of the most fascinating World Series games I’ve ever seen. I haven’t been watching closely as no one I really care about is playing (Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals) but I want the Cardinals to win as I’m a National League fan and as the Rangers are George W. Bush’s team. Cardinals were in an elimination Game 6 (with Rangers leading 3-2….you need 4 games to win). The Cardinals had played badly all night, blowing non-stop opportunities and their relievers kept giving the lead back to the Rangers. Well, they were down 7-5 in the bottom of the 9th, down to their last out and their last strike, when David Freese, the hometown kid, tripled to tie the game to send it into extra innings. What a hit for the hometown kid!

    Well of course, Cardinal fans hadn’t even been able to talk about the great comeback when the St. Louis bullpen gives up a two run homer to Texas. Bottom of the 10th and once again, the Cardinals are down to their last out and their last strike when AGAIN, they manage to tie the game on single by Lance Berkman. In the bottom of the 11th inning, David Freese, the hometown kid, led off the inning and homers to win the game and send it to a Game 7. Incredible!

  6. SOCIAL LIBERAL.
    Many thanks for your vivid description of the Game. I hope to attend a game one day, if I am ever allowed to retire.

    Are the Cardinals a catholic team?

    In Scotland the Rangers are a protestant team and Celtic a catholic team, although the Cetlic Manager Jock Stein, the greatest ever, was a Protestant.

  7. @ Chris Lane

    “Many thanks for your vivid description of the Game. I hope to attend a game one day, if I am ever allowed to retire.”

    You’re welcome. I love baseball (it’s similar to cricket I think). I haven’t been able to follow it as much as I used to the past few years (also the steroid scandal was a real turnoff). The great games of baseball (the great pitching duels, the great comebacks, the massive extra innings battles) don’t often happen in the playoffs. So this was one of the more incredible World Series games I’ve ever watched, Just because of the fact that the Rangers were one strike from winning twice only to have the Cards come back. And to see the hometown kid save the game and then win it, I mean how incredible for him?

    “Are the Cardinals a catholic team?”

    No. I don’t think any of our professional sports teams have religious affiliations.

    “In Scotland the Rangers are a protestant team and Celtic a catholic team, although the Cetlic Manager Jock Stein, the greatest ever, was a Protestant.”

    I don’t think we have anything like that though perhaps the Negro Leagues come closest to that though those are long gone (thank god). Wasn’t Jim Murphy involved in some sort of controversy at a Celtics vs. Rangers game where he was subjected to anti-Catholic insults by fans or something?

  8. SOCIAL LIBERAL.
    Anti sectarianism is still strong in Glasgow Rangers v Glasgow Celtic games, but Rangers have dropped their no-catholic policy.

    In England: Everton used to be seen as a catholic club- the area of scotland road used to be an irish settlement in days gone bye now.

    As to politics most catholic mp’s are Labour, although some would be nominally catholic only. IDS and Edward Leigh are prominent tory catholic mp’s.

    In education about 30% of pupils in catholic schools- aided by the state, with teachers paid by the state as well- are from families which are not catholic, many are Muslims in some urban areas. So the schools are now non-sectarian, thank God, as you say- in England.

    Some Labour and Lib Dem leaders have sent their offspring to catholic schools, although their own parties want to secularise state education- for arguments which I understand, but do not support!. (Clegg, Harman, Blair, for example.)

  9. “I don’t understand the whole Greek bail out at all.
    Why shouldn’t Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy get bailed out?”
    The story of the house built upon sand comes to mind.
    They’re preparing for the coming storm – and Greece is the most likely to topple. And if Greece goes, the whole system goes.
    And then British nationalist rejoice!… until they realise that we go down with them.

    Of course, if the problems get too bad then all the countries listed above will get write-offs.
    They’re playing a cost-benefit game.

    Has nobody pointed out that 35/42/9 would probably be 35(possibly 34)/43/9 under the old methodology?
    If we’re comparing the Tories to where they were starting to really hurt Labour a few weeks ago (conference time), things are really starting to slip.

    Which is probably why the Tories are doing what *all parties* do in this situation – don’t tackle the underlying issues but make populist announcements.
    What have we had this week so far? Oh, yes.

    Are they buttering us up for Q3 figures, or is it just a ploy for really strong Q3 figures which will catch a Labour party (arguing against the populism) by surprise? (If we can do as well as the US at 2.5% annualised, that would be amazing)

  10. @ Chris Lane

    “In Scotland the Rangers are a protestant team and Celtic a catholic team, although the Cetlic Manager Jock Stein, the greatest ever, was a Protestant.”

    We have a Celtics actually….in the NBA though (basketball) and they’re in Boston. They are the top rivals and constant foes of my beloved Lakers (they beat us in just about every single NBA Finals in the 60’s) though I don’t hate them. I may not like them but as a life principle, I refuse to hate sports teams simply because they’re rivals. The Boston Celtics are not religiously affiliated.

    The Cardinals used to be the team of the south due to Missouri’s odd position of being both a midwestern and a southern state. There were no professional teams in traditional southern states and St. Louis stepped in. But the Atlanta Braves (who used to be in Boston and Milwaukee) ultimately replaced them as the southern baseball team.

    Some team names are interesting. There used to be a minor league team in Atlanta, the Atlanta Crackers (no, I’m not making this up). The Los Angeles Dodgers got their names because when the Dodgers first began playing in Brooklyn, their players had to dodge a local trolley line in order to get to their clubhouse, hence the name “Dodgers.” Washington finally has a major league baseball team again, the Nationals. But they are commonly known by their nickname, get this, the “Nats.” (I think it’s a cosmic coincidence).

    I think you should go to a major league baseball game some day if you ever get the opportunity. I think you’d really enjoy it if you went to the right park.

  11. @ Chris Lane

    “Anti sectarianism is still strong in Glasgow Rangers v Glasgow Celtic games, but Rangers have dropped their no-catholic policy.

    In England: Everton used to be seen as a catholic club- the area of scotland road used to be an irish settlement in days gone bye now.”

    That’s pretty wild to me. There may be some college teams with religious affiliations like Notre Dame (Catholic) and Brigham Young University (Mormon) but I don’t think any of the teams consider themselves religious, just teams for schools that happen to be religious. I’m glad the Glasgow Rangers have dropped their no Catholic policy.

    “As to politics most catholic mp’s are Labour, although some would be nominally catholic only. IDS and Edward Leigh are prominent tory catholic mp’s.”

    Would you believe it…out of 9 of our Supreme Court Justices, 6 of them are Catholic including the Chief Justice (though in the entire history of the U.S., I think there have been 13 altogether). Though Sonia Sotomayor is more of a Beverly Hills Catholic I think. The other 3 Justices are Jews (which is a record too). This means that the unthinkable has occurred. An institution that was usually comprised of all male wasps (usually bluebloods) now no longer has a single Protestant.

    I’m kind of surprised that the make up of Catholic MPs skews to Labour that way. You would think that there’d be Catholic MPs in all parties and that the vote wouldn’t skew any particular way. But I guess it does. To my knowledge, there have been plenty of Republican Catholics and Democratic Catholics. Our former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, is Catholic. Joe Biden is Catholic too.

  12. SOCIAL LIBERAL.

    Thank you for the update on the Boston Celtics.

    I have now adopted them as my team!

    i. Their Shamrock logo
    ii. Their Colours
    iii. The home of the Kennedy Family.
    iv. Where the Irish came post famine.
    v. The first team to pick a black player.
    v. The name!

    Go Celts!
    I am off to play tennis on a warm autumn day on the south coast, and a big poll lead as well.

  13. @ Chris Lane

    “In education about 30% of pupils in catholic schools- aided by the state, with teachers paid by the state as well- are from families which are not catholic, many are Muslims in some urban areas. So the schools are now non-sectarian, thank God, as you say- in England.

    Some Labour and Lib Dem leaders have sent their offspring to catholic schools, although their own parties want to secularise state education- for arguments which I understand, but do not support!. (Clegg, Harman, Blair, for example.)”

    For me, the first part is an absolute no-no. The state should never be funding religious schools and state education should always be secular. Church and state just don’t go together…they’re like Ike and Tina Turner, a marriage not made in heaven. Now shutting down all religious education is something the government shouldn’t be allowed to do either (and I thought that was something being advocated).

    On the second part, I think it is hypocritical of those politicians to send their kids to the same schools they advocate shutting down.

    Btw, if you’re looking for a Christmas present this year and you enjoy reading biographies, may I reccomend “Justice Brennan: Liberal Champion.” It’s an in depth portrait of William Brennan, one of the greatest Justices of all time and a Catholic.

  14. Btw, some of you had asked how IRV or AV was working out in the very few parts of the U.S. where it had been adopted locally….

    This is the result:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/27/keith-olbermann-jean-quan_n_1062870.html

    More evidence to me that you guys made the right choice in May by not bringing it in.

  15. @ Chris Lane

    “Thank you for the update on the Boston Celtics.

    I have now adopted them as my team!

    i. Their Shamrock logo
    ii. Their Colours
    iii. The home of the Kennedy Family.
    iv. Where the Irish came post famine.
    v. The first team to pick a black player.
    v. The name!

    Go Celts!”

    :(

    I guess you’re a Celtics fan on both sides of the pond then. Don’t worry, I won’t hate you just because you’re a Celtics fan (they’re only your adopted team, that, and I don’t hate any Celtics fans anyway, lol).

    They weren’t the first professional sport to pick a black player (even if they were the first in the NBA). The Dodgers were. :) Laker colors are purple and gold (so I guess they’re a nifty balance of UKIP and Scots Nats, lol). They are blue and gold though when they play road games.

  16. @Billy Bob

    “Always fascinating, the Tory peer (Julian Alexander Kitchener-Fellowes, Baron Fellowes of West Stafford), seemed quite taken with the Labour unknown (Gloria Del Piero) but he had no time for IDS, who sat uneasily next to the voluble Joe Swinson. who in turn was at daggers drawn with Ngel Farrage.”

    I didn’t watch QT last night because I was at a Labour committee meeting short-listing our PPC and then I was off to a local pub to meet some of my football-loving mates for a morbid post-mortem into Villa’s dismal defeat last weekend. It’s amazing what a few pints of very good real ale can do though. We began by discussing the likelihood of relegation and ended up utterly convinced that the boys would triumph at Sunderland on Saturday and a Champions League place wasn’t entirely out of the question. One more pint and I might well have been contemplating the Premiership title!

    Back to QT. Ms Del Piero (wasn’t there once an Italian footballer of the same name?), is the former GMTV political reporter now turned Labour MP. Talk within Labour circles suggests she could be the next big thing. How did she fare last night?

  17. Have just ordered “Boomerang-the Meltdown Tour” by Michael Lewis after hearing a review on R4.Have just

    Apparently the Greek railway system has operating costs 400% of its revenue. Average employee pay is 65k euro pa-and it would be cheaper for the state to close it down & transport every passenger by taxi.

    THere is no way the Greek State will become internationally competitive until it reforms its public sector.

    That the Chinese are being asked to contribute to EFSF is a sign of the shift in economic power. They will exact a price of some sort .

  18. Crossbat11,

    Underwhelming, but that’s no worse than your typical shadow junior minister debutant.

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