Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Others 15%. The four point Labour lead is very much the norm for YouGov, but worth noting is that hidden within that 15% is 7% for UKIP. YouGov have shown UKIP as high as 6 several times in recent weeks, so it’s hardly a massive difference, but nevertheless it’s the highest YouGov have shown them since June 2009, straight after the European elections.

There is also a new Angus Reid poll out here, which has topline figures of CON 33% (nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1). Changes are from last month.

288 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 40, LDEM 9”

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  1. SoCalLiberal

    Actually I think if you’re closely related enough to the Queen, she has to give permission for you to be able to marry anyone, irrespective of religion or gender (Anthony knows more about this, I seem to remember).

    Of course even if you snare the prince/ss of your dreams, you’ll probably only end up as the subject of impudent opinions from the YouGov panel. Such as this latest one which asks It has been reported that Prince Andrew would like his daughters, Princess Eugenie and Princess Beatrice, to take on formal roles in the Royal family start taking part in Royal duties. Which of the following best reflects your view?

    20% think Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie should take on formal roles in the Royal family and carry out Royal duties.

    But 53% believe Pricess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie should not carry out any formal Royal duties, and should instead follow ordinary careers

    But what I really want to know are the options being put forward by that 12% who simply say Neither

  2. By the way Pricess Beatrice was YouGov’s typo not mine. Though given her mother’s quest for monetisation of her own position, it might have been freudian.

  3. @ Roger Mexico

    “20% think Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie should take on formal roles in the Royal family and carry out Royal duties.”

    Are they the ones who wore the funny hats at the Royal Wedding? I did not watch of course but I saw photos. I can kinda see the public ot wanting them to do anything.

    “Actually I think if you’re closely related enough to the Queen, she has to give permission for you to be able to marry anyone, irrespective of religion or gender (Anthony knows more about this, I seem to remember).”

    Wow, that’s kinda sad. That’s where I sympathize with the royals because their lives are so tightly controlled and micromanaged. I wonder what happens with unauthorized elopement weddings. Like if Prince Harry is on some trip to Las Vegas and has some shotgun shack wedding to some half-black, half-Latina chick who happens to be Catholic, his marriage will be recognized by the State of Nevada. But would it be recognized by the UK and by his grandmother?

    @ Richard in Norway

    “Are you involved with the occupy movement at all. It’s starting to evolve into a online democracy experiment I think.”

    No, not really. I did offer to buy my friend who’s involved a tent so that she could camp out at an Occupy site (though she opted out cause’ she doesn’t like sleeping outdoors with the elements).

    For now, I remain a supporter but not a member of the movement.

  4. So cal

    You should check out the online forums

  5. @ Roger Mexico

    “Small point but I think you’ll find that Patrick Harvie identifies as bisexual, at least according to a recent piece in the The Paper That Must Not Be Linked To. You’ll have to do a search for his name on Comment is Free.”

    Could you give me a hint as to the newspaper’s name? I don’t mean to misidentify him, some people can get really offended when you do that.

    “I remembered this article because I was highly amused by Northwestern report (via the NYT) proving wrong a previous study declaring the male bisexual a mythical beast.”

    The previous study had recruited its subjects via their personal ads and apparently people sometimes don’t tell the truth in those. Who would have thought it?”

    Aren’t all British men (or a majority) a little bisexual? Or have I just been reading too much of the collected works of Edith Cresson? :) J/k. To be honest, I don’t understand the point of disputing male bisexuality and avoid that debate because I think it’s a big waste of time.

    “(Also when I first saw the NYT report, my immediate thought wasn’t “Ooh, sex” but “Ooh, methodology”. How sad is that?)”

    Lol. Not that sad.

  6. Dangann: Good Morning and welcome.

    I am one of the posters who thinks History is a guide to what will happen in the future.

    You will know tories are normally in power for three full terms

  7. Also historically, Governments do not generally increase their share of the vote.

  8. Looks like the chancellor canon of St Pauls is to resign over his sympathies for Occupy London.
    Not clear if he’s doing it out of principle or he’s being forced out.

    It’s a shame when the church is more concerned with losing media, conservative and financial support than supporting those who wish to do the very christian thing of helping the poor. (However misguided people might think they are).
    I wonder what they’d make of a certain biblical figure who threw over tables in the temple, broke the Sabbath law and whose followers practised communism of property.

    In other news – the markets seem confident about the EU bailout plan, which hopefully brings some more stability to the economy.
    Any stability and growth is good for the government, so they should feel somewhat relieved.

  9. Also, is it fair to say that UKIP are now on a solid 6%?
    Looks to be at the expense of the Tories.

    Now the big question is –
    Is this a temporary protest vote against the Tories (who’ll be back to 37%) or is it one of those protest votes (like protest votes used to be for the LibDems) where the voters are so sick of the two main parties that they don’t care if their vote is wasted?

  10. Alec
    “For the UK, Q3 looks pretty flat, but the sands are shifting for Q4.”

    Sooo, you’re predicting GO will blame ‘sands’ for poor Q4 figs? ;-)

  11. I note gov (dis)approval has returned to within its normal range.

    Thanks for your reply.
    Please continue to post – I suspect KIP will become more ‘influential’ as we approach the next GE.

  12. @ChrisLane1945

    “I am one of the posters who thinks History is a guide to what will happen in the future.
    You will know tories are normally in power for three full terms”

    Of course the Blessed Marx never actually believed that old cliche about history repeating itself but he did coin the memorable aphorism of “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.”. In reality, he was a strong believer in men making their own history rather than being condemned to repeat events of the past. I’m with him on that.

    As for your old canard being applied to elections, I’m afraid it’s even wider of the mark, Chris. If you go back into the mists of time to over half a century ago, in the 1950’s, you’re right, there was a string of Tory election victories, as there was over 30 years ago in the 1980s. But look what’s happened since then. The Tories haven’t won an election outright for 20 years, they haven’t come anywhere near obtaining a 40% vote share in any of the last 4 General Elections, it was Labour who last won three consecutive terms, not the Tories, turnouts have nosedived, a multiplicity of smaller parties are now an essential part of our psephology, the nation’s demographics have changed utterly,we have a coaltion in power, not a Tory Government……where do you want to end the examples that, in political and electoral terms, prove history is complete bunk?

    Or have we got to disinter the good old Reggie Maudling quote again, still resonating from half a century ago when he was talking about an England that disappeared long ago.

    Mind you, Sir Robert Peel once said………………………..

  13. As “… part of UKIP’s unique strategy of standing down candidates in areas where there is another euro-sceptic candidate standing…” Robin Johnson stood down in Rochester and Strood just proir to the 2011 GE.

    “The decision was welcomed by Mr Reckless, who said that had it not been for UKIP standing in 2005, there was every chance he would have become an MP last time.”

    Ukip’s 1,488 votes, together with boundary changes turned this super-margiinal to a resonably comfortable Tory gain. Uip did feild candidates for every other seat in Kent.

    Perhaps this circumstance contributed to Mark Reckless becoming a serial rebel and vocal critic of the EU in this parliament.

  14. *2010 GE*

  15. I wonder if the infiltration of the Tories by ferocious anti-europeans can be compared to Militants and Labour in the 80s? There seems to be a concerted attempt to ensure only sceptics get selected for constituencies.

    A big question we won’t really know the answer to for a while is whether the Scots will vote Labour in a Westminster election or SNP. At the moment it looks like SNP but this is a case where if it looks like they can kick the Tories out by voting Labour, they might do that. Might depend upon what Labour do over the next year or so.

    The last great imponderable…can the Tories get more than high 30s in percentage of the vote? No evidence that they can apart from people who vote Tory anyway saying that they could.

  16. @Tingedfringe

    “Is this a temporary protest vote against the Tories (who’ll be back to 37%) or is it one of those protest votes (like protest votes used to be for the LibDems)”

    I think you’ll find that a lot of the vote of the Tories or Labour is actually a “protest” vote, driven by dislike of the opposing party. Supporters of either of the “big two” parties shouldn’t flatter themselves too much that people are voting positively.

  17. A little thought about the Euro-sceptics. Most of the electorate (according to the polling we have seen here) agree that we should “repatriate powers” at least in general terms. But they also don’t consider it very important. Whereas the Tory nay-sayers 9apparently) give it a very high priority.

    So it’s a bit like capital Punishment. Many voters say they want it, but most of them don’t really care that much either way.

  18. CROSSBAT11

    Good Morning. You may have forgotten
    four tory victories 1979-1992.

    the three Labour victories were won by Blair.
    (Smith lost the 1992 Election with the shadow budget)

    Now Labour has ‘got its party back’ and they boo Blair.

    Cleverer people than me point out the % of votes gained by winning parties is linked to the rise of the third party and minor parties- de alignmnent etc.

    1886-1905 with exception of 1892-1894 minority lib government

    1918-1939 with exception of 1923 & 1929-1931

    1951-1964 and 1979-1997, and now: 2010- ?

    As as been said before, Heath would have had more Mp’s with him in Feb 1974 if he had not ‘betrayed’ Unionism with one man one vote, power sharing and closing Stormont down. (Wilson caved into the Ulster workers’ strikes)

    By 1974 Bennte politics was beginning to infect Labour and frightening off many voters in the centre- of all classes.

    Kinnock scared the same people, and now, I think Ed and Ed also scare people.

    As you know Maudling said that England is a tory land which sometimes votes Labour

  19. CROSS BAT 11

    My favourite Peel quote is about the Great Famine being sent by God to teach them a lesson. Hence the title ‘Orange Peel’

    ‘I was unwilling to open a door which I could not see being closed again’

    On Coalition Governments: The 1918-1922 and 1931-1939 Governments were de facto tory governments with the Liberals providing cover, and getting fig leafs to placate their consciences, just like now.

    I am sorry, my analysis is the same, the Blues have occupied the centre ground and that is where power goes. As Ed said, he is not Tony Blair- cue: cheers.

    The Labour Party is carping from the left margin of the page. Alistair Darling’s book is interestting to read.

  20. I don’t think history can teach us all that much, in either direction.

    There is a tendency in politics for commentators to overestimate the importance of “current” events. I suppose it comes from the pressues of the 24 hour news cycle. Whenever something bad happens to a party, there are numerous shouts of “game over”, despite the fact that the real influences on voting intention are far more tidal and slow-moving than a few bad headlines.

    There are sometimes seminal moments. The ERM crisis for Major was one of them. But actually do we think he would have won in 1997 if it hadn’t happened? The chances are he would have lost anyway, so even in that case it wasn’t necessarily all down to that day.

    The long term effects of a bad performance in the commons, a s*x scandal, a poor set of local election results, a quarter of bad economic data are neglible.

    Everything depends on the way the “planets align” in the 6-12 months leading up to the next general election. Any opinion like “the LDs can’t regain any of their lost votes”, “the Tories can’t get above 37%”, “Labour can’t win with Ed Miliband as leader” are just so much fluff at this stage. Almost anything can happen, except perhaps a Labour victory in Huntingdon or a Tory majority Scotland…

  21. A very interesting COM RES poll for the BBC regarding state benefits and the public attitude thereto has been published. I feel sure AW will do his black art on the overall picture. The bare numbers will give Labour and non coalition Liberals, very little to be happy about.
    The public obviously believe in a “welfare state”, but the cuts this coalition has, or will make to welfare, are either popular or don’t go far enough to suit the vast majority.

    I have to admit that I have over stepped the mark in partisan and courtesy terms in the past. This has often been brought on by comments which assume the people at large, totally disapprove of this governments cuts to welfare spending. Although no excuse for my behaviour, this poll proves how wrong the anti coalitionists are and how right the Tory and pro coalition LD’s on the board are, regarding attitudes to welfare.


    Thank you.
    I have inherited an Irish-Welsh habit of a nasty tongue, in political debate, and also personal debate, nd I have to work very hard at controlling it..

  23. @Dangann,

    Interesting to hear your views, although I personally think it unlikely that the Conservative party is walking around with a blindfold on next to a clifftop hanging over the Sea of Electoral Oblivion.

    @ Neil A and everyone else discussing recent political history, I remember reading something I think by Margaret Thatcher along the lines that the only people who tried harder than the Tories to make Labour lose in the 1983 GE was the Labour party itself, because they made too many errors both to do with policy and PR. EM is the sort of person, I think, who is unwittingly capable of doing something similar to his own party. If he wants to win he should try to be a little less Brown/Foot-like and a little more Blair/Cameron-like in style.

  24. EM will never be Blair/Cameron. But he ain’t Brown or Foot either.

    We”ll see…I suspect he is a shrewd cookie. He has maintained a Labour poll lead despite all the negativity about his leadership.

  25. @chris lane 1945
    You are very welcome Chris.

    APOLOGIES. It is not a COM RES poll at all. It is IPSOS MORI. However the results are as described above.

  26. Richard in Norway

    @”I find it strange that you have so little sympathy for ordinary Greek folk who have been misled by their politicians and the financial services industry. And have been denied debt relief by bankruptcy which all company’s and private individuals have some rights to.”

    Well first I refer you to RICHBABED who is welcome here-particularly since he knows what he is talking about on Greek matters-unlike you & I.

    I have little sympathy with any population which so diligently avoids paying tax on the scale described in my links up thread re Greek tax collection-borrows to maintain a public sector which would make Bob Crowe think he had gone to heaven-and then complains when their creditors get twitchy about the lack of tax revenue.

    I share your sympathy with all “ordinary folk” who were mislead by their politicians into believing that rising real estate values represented permanent -and spendable-accretions of personal wealth.

    I share your sympathy with all “ordinary folk” who thought that the public service& welfare bonanza lavished on them by short sighted politicians was sustainable. THey were not to know that it was all paid for by the self same credit fuelled asset price boom.

    Of course people are free agents Richard. They make wrong choices too -just like politicians.

    They didn’t have to borrow-& I have no sympathy for distressed borrowers-corporate, individual or sovereign.

    I have sympathy with people losing jobs in the public sector which they thought were real jobs-sustainable jobs.

    I have sympathy for pensioners on fixed incomes seeing their savings inflated away & their savings income decimated.

    I have sympathy for young families on low incomes and retired people on fixed incomes facing huge increases in their core costs of food & fuel.

    I have sympathy for lots of folk Richard-but not much for the empty rhetoric of left wing bleeding heart “blame it all on the bankers” self delusion & denial.

    ………by the way-I see Statoil have fired a beauty at Hulme. They say if he intends to go all green & stop building gas fired power stations they will take their gas to someone who wants to buy it !

    If we ( I mean us in UK-not you residents of energy rich countries which exploit ordinary folk in countries like this :-) ) don’t get our energy policy sorted out soon , we will have no lights -to go with our no income, & no jobs.

  27. @ Nick Poole

    He may have maintained a Labour poll lead, but not nearly as large a lead as you would expect when a government is cutting left right and centre, and with admittedly fragile economic growth.

    My own very early, irrational and probably futile prediction for the next GE is that as I say EM will not help his position much, and DC will capitalise on this weakness and win.

    But anything could happen

    I would agree with you regarding EM. He has not got the younger Gordon Brown’s gravitas and he has not got Michael Foot’s brain. Perhaps Neil Kinnock without the oral incontinence.

  29. @tingedfringe – “It’s a shame when the church is more concerned with losing media, conservative and financial support”

    I don’t have an inside track to the internal political wrangles in the Diocese of London, but the longstanding Bishop there would definitely be seen as one of the more ‘conservative’ senior clerics.

    Canon Giles Fraser, would be the third most senior cleric at St Pauls, and he is seen as a (young) leading light in the CofE atm. I wouldn’t have thought that his (political) move would be in any way career ending.

  30. I can’t help thinking that the current coalition could have been quite long-lived in happier times (pending election results) – generally centre/centre-right with the fantasies of the Tory right generally ignored. Unfortunately this is a bad time for anyone to be in government. “There’s no money left” sums it up.

    Welfare has long needed reform like this and it needs a government to get on with it. People like the idea of a welfare state, but not handouts for nothing. It is quite a fine balancing trick to ensure all the genuinely needy are helped without throwing money at people who are happy to scrounge from the state. Given the state of the nation’s finances, we cannot afford to throw money away on this, but any government sensitive to popularity (that’s most of them, really) needs to show a caring face.

    Personally from my one-nationist point of view, I wouldn’t vote for this coalition, but can tolerate it. Skepticism of Miliband helps this view.

  31. stanley

    He has maintained a poll lead. It’s you who are expecting the lead to widen.

    I expect it will, too. But you cannot ask for more from a leader than to lead his Party to a comfortable majority in Government. Despite all cameron’s pro-polling as an individual, he couldn’t do that last time and I really cannot see why he should succeed next time especially with the economic straits ahead.

  32. CHRISLANE1945:

    Wasn’t the 1931-39 Government a National Government of National conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour?

    Maybe it’s your view that that coalition was never anything other than a thin disguise for a Conservative government…. a wolf in sheep’s clothing…and by that rationale we might say the same for this coalition.

    Of course it was the Liberals who historically were the big losers from their last dance with the Tory wolves….

  33. @chouenlai

    The polling popularity of a policy doesn’t indicate the correctness of that policy. And yet again I must repeat my line… All Policy Polling Is Junk.


    “I expect it will, too. But you cannot ask for more from a leader than to lead his Party to a comfortable majority in Government. Despite all cameron’s pro-polling as an individual, he couldn’t do that last time and I really cannot see why he should succeed next time especially with the economic straits ahead.”

    Nick, I pointed out to a Labour poster the other day, whilst we are all very well aware that Cameron did not win outright at the last GE, the Tory party made the largest gain in seats since the Great War. I went on to say, “I don’t think you realise the state we were in during the Blair years”. Now, please believe me, I am not saying Cameron is the be all and end all by any stretch of reality, but your man continues to struggle. However, please don’t change him.

  35. @jay blanc
    Right, you have convinced me, increase public spending on welfare and it is what the public really want.

    You sound like one of these guys being questioned about a rape. She said no but I know she really meant yes.

  36. chouenlai

    Thank for the tip about MORI’s October political monitor for Reuters. Headline figures are CON 34(-1); LAB 38(+1); LIB DEM 12(-1) which I’m surprised you didn’t report as you’ve been predicting a drop in Tory support. It also includes their economic optimism index which is dropping rapidly, confirming the tendency we’ve seen in various YouGov trackers.

    The main article is here:

    with links to the tables etc. As always with MORI it’s worth looking at the ‘slides’ because there are useful time-graphs going back in one case to 1979 which put things in context. I assume Anthony will put up a new thread to discuss the Ipsos-MORI when he has time.

    The one thing I couldn’t find was the poll on state benefits – it may be it’s not released yet. It’s not on ComRes either, they usually do ITN’s poll anyway.

  37. Last night’s settlement (for a few months) of the Euro crisis may cause Cameron some problems. Osborne can no longer continue talking up the notion that our economy is among those being dragged down by the problems of the Euro in preparation for some really bad Q3 and Q4 economic statistics. Blaming Labour is still there to fall back on, but 18 months on will that still wash as the excuse for an imploding domestic economy?

    The 1,000,000,000,000 Euro rescue package itself has the look of deja vu. We were here a few months back, but now an extra 0 has been tacked on to the end of the latest bill. A fundamental lack of competitiveness is what will do for the likes of the Greek and Italian economies in the end. Promises of spending cuts and moves to fiscal union aren’t going to change that in the absence of devaluation. So it seems on the cards that the begging bowl will come out again in 2012, but by then the bill for yet another rescue package will have become utterly unaffordable. It’s going to be messy.

    You will see up page my decrepitude struck. I apologies for getting my pollsters confused. It is nothing to do with COM RES , it is IPSOS MORI who are running the poll for a BBC programme to night.

    ps I had been expecting a 4 or 5 point jump for Labour, in other words an 8 or 9 point lead.

  39. @Chouenlai
    Alternatively, you could take recent YouGov polling showing overwhelming public support for the 50% tax rate on income and new taxes on wealth to demonstrate that we’re (almost) all a bunch of dyed-in-the-wool socialists.

    It’s difficult to judge the BBC polling, given that it’s unavailable in detail yet. Clearly there’s hostility to many of those who rely on benefits as a sole source of income. But I suspect there would also be some sympathy to a slightly loaded question such as this: “To give people more incentive to work, should there be more financial support to ensure people taking low paid jobs are better off?”

  40. @ PHIL

    @”Last night’s settlement (for a few months) of the Euro crisis ”

    It isn’t settled yet I’m afraid-as was spelled out in the GO statement/debate in HoC just now :-

    THe haircut for private holders of Greek debt of 50% is a headline only-the detailed implementation is yet to be worked out. ( I think you are right to doubt that this will improve Greece’s solvency fundamentally unless they correct their competitiveness deficit)

    The leveraging of EFSF to 1 trillion euros is entirely speculative. THere is talk of Chinese & other Sovereign wealth fund involvement-but its just talk yet. There is talk of IMF involvement, but GO made it clear that IMFs charter obliges them only to lend to countries against specific fiscal programmes. Their involvement in EFSF , or a SPV attached to it is very uncertain.

    The 9% Bank reserve capital requirement does look nailed down-UK Banks said not to be in need of more capital.

    Italy however , is beginning to look politically unstable-& it has over 200bn euros of debt to rollover next year.

    A thought occurrs to me on the 100bn euro bank recapitalisation . THe plan is for markets to subscribe first-failing which governments. Putting aside the question of whether more clapped out bank shares will seem attractive to private investors-this money will effectively be withdrawn from circulation & to that extent will mitigate against credit availability for economic growth purposes.

    At the end of the day, the loss of asset value resulting from Greece’s effective partial sovereign debt default must impact somewhere-Greek debt unpaid=less funds to invest elsewhere.

    And if France loses its current credit rating because it has to subscribe to EFSF &/or Bank recapitalisations, then -Reduced Greek interest rates=Increased French interest rates.

    If you squeeze this balloon in one place . it pops out in another.

  41. @Colin.
    Thanks – even though that detail is entirely depressing. How long before it starts to unravel, I wonder?

  42. @PHILL
    I think it is fair to say that some of the view points put forward on this board, ever since cuts in various benefits were at first muted, are not generally shared by the majority. The figures in this poll are such that the overall view of the people is clear.

  43. PHIL


    I don’t know-I’m pessimistic about it.

    I see EZ have appointed themselves a President-how many sodding Presidents & Grand Panjandrums do they need over there?

    MOre seriously a two tier EU is fast emerging. EZ greater fiscal union will speed that.

    GO made it clear in HoC this morning they will look to “rebalance” competencies if Treaty changes emerge.

    DC had dinner with the premiers of Sweden & POland last night-I sense the possibility of an EU-non EZ bloc emerging.

    IDS threatened to resign if he is ever asked to vote against his EU beliefs again-exciting political times ahead ?

  44. Colin,

    I certainly agree about “exciting political times ahead”.

    How do you think the british public would react to an EU-non EZ bloc being created? Surely it would be good for DC, to show to the Eurosceptics he was doing something now but not to ruin his government’s policy.

    I have a suspicion that the official conservative party position on Europe will change significantly in the next few years, though I’m not sure as to which side of the next GE it will occur.


    I think anything which demonstrates DC will not stand by & see UK shut out by SArkozy will go down well.

    If Sweden & POland do align in some way-their current political leadership is pretty much attuned with DC’s politics & the grouping would be credible.

    I think the Con Europhobes will not get anywhere-the Eurosceptics can at least look forward to the prospect of effort to rgain competency in areas like Financial Services & Employment Law.

    But I think there are so many balls in the air, we are in for a period of Euro-uncertainty .

  46. Roger.

    Those Ipsos-Mori slides are fascinating. Slide 19 especially perfectly sums up what a bunch of miserable bastards we are as a nation. In the past 30 years, our PPP GDP per capita has increased something like 600%. Yet over that period the question “Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?” has on average elicited something like a -25% net response.

    From 93-08 we had 63 quarters of unbroken GDP growth, an utterly unprecedented era of economic strength in the post-war era. Yet during that period there were only three fleeting moments when the pollees thought that the economy was getting better.

    The power of the “Barbarians at the Gates” headlines of certain papers eh?

  47. I sense an attitude which depicts any Tory who is not a trembling mass of pleasure regarding the EU, as some kind of extremist. A large proportion of traditional Tories are not best pleased with the EU, I mean is it to be wondered at in the current situation ? Furthermore, we are still “the Kings Party”, losing power to Brussels just does not suit us, anymore than putting up council house rents suits Labour supporters. Just because I am an overweight blazer and cavalry twill wearing old buffer, who smells of brandy. Just because Colin wears a tweed suit and brogues, with a fishermans hat displaying fishing lures, as he swigs his port, it does not mean all those who question Europe are like us.

  48. Colin,

    To clarify, I meant the tory policy will get more Eurosceptic over the next few years.

    The problem with UK + Sweden + Poland is that they’re only three countries, not much compared to the whole EZ. They need more countries on their side. Czech Rep, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, maybe Denmark?

  49. Roger

    Thanks for the link. To quote your good self from the beginning of this thread –

    “Please don’t look at the Scottish cross-breaks” :-)


    “The last great imponderable…can the Tories get more than high 30s in percentage of the vote? No evidence that they can apart from people who vote Tory anyway saying that they could.”

    If they can get the Europe thing settled (more) to the satisfaction of the Eurosceptics in their party they will secure more of the UKIP vote.

    If they can deal with the deficit/debt enough and be able to introduce sweetners, such as PAYE allowance increases along the way, AND be in a position to say “We’re dealing with it” by 2014, I reckon they will be back in the high 30s for sure.

    If they can achieve both, they will secure 40%+ and be in the driving seat. I said a while back that their success or failure is largely based on the economic recovery. Now there’s the European angle too (which is also economic as well as political).

    Two big ‘ifs’. If they manage them both, they probably deserve to be get re-elected. If they achieve one, they will probably lose or we’ll have another coalition. If they achieve neither, they will lose. I’m sure, as a voter with no portfolio (on the fence for 4 years and 11 months mostly), you can take that as fair and objective.

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