Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Others 15%. The four point Labour lead is very much the norm for YouGov, but worth noting is that hidden within that 15% is 7% for UKIP. YouGov have shown UKIP as high as 6 several times in recent weeks, so it’s hardly a massive difference, but nevertheless it’s the highest YouGov have shown them since June 2009, straight after the European elections.

There is also a new Angus Reid poll out here, which has topline figures of CON 33% (nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1). Changes are from last month.


288 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 40, LDEM 9”

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  1. Colin

    Earlier you provided some links about Greek pensions. When I checked them out I noticed that they didn’t say where they got there figures from etc but then I looked at my sources which paint a different story from yours and saw that they had the same problem. After much searching I finally found an article which quoted a “reliable source” eurostat, but that article was unfortunately in a Marxist publication, so the stats where surrounded by boring ranting as I’m sure you can imagine. Having had a look at eurostat I became horrified at the sheer volume of data to be sifted through and seeing as I have a house to clean. I feel disinclined to use my time in this way

    But your contention that Greeks are in the streets to save their cushy pensions is silly. Pay has been cut severely, taxes have been raised at a furious rate and services have been cut massively. The Greek standard of living has dropped very far very fast but for all their sacrifices they are going deeper and deeper into debt. Plus all of this is about saving banks
    and bankers and not the ordinary folk of greece.

    I find it strange that you have so little sympathy for ordinary Greek folk who have been misled by their politicians and the financial services industry. And have been denied debt relief by bankruptcy which all company’s and private individuals have some rights to.

  2. @Norway

    I live in Athens and have lived in Greece 20 years, I think you are so wrong with your comments and really have no idea about Greece at all

  3. Tonight’s YouGov:

    Con 35
    Lab 41
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 6
    SNP / PCY 5
    Green 3
    BNP 1
    Respect 0
    Other 0

    Approval 30-57 =-27

    Non-voters 22%

    Tables are here:

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-261011.pdf

    Please don’t look at the Scottish cross-breaks – my patience is wearing thin. :(

  4. And if anyone is interested in first hand knowledge of Greece let me know and I will post. I am on my couch 5 mins from syntagma square where all the riots take place

  5. Roger Mexico

    Look at Scottish cross-breaks? Heaven forfend!

    Mind you, SNP/PCY at 5% is pretty impressive.

    Doubtless Plaid has made great strides forward? :-)

  6. Looks like there has been a small shift from the Tories in recent days. I suspect it is over the EU issue, with a few Tory voters probably switching to UKIP. Whether it is just a short-term shift in light of the recent news coverage on the EU vote, or a medium or longer term change obviously remains to be seen.

  7. Roger

    I’m sorry I looked, I wouldn’t normally but you made it so tempting

  8. I note that the line of numbers for Respect was “Respect 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0”

    The Communist Party of GB should be complaining that they aren’t getting similar attention.

    Anthony

    YouGov is making itself look very silly.

  9. @ John B Dick

    “Unionists will not push for ending devolution for the same reason. They do not want to risk dividing the anti-independence vote.”

    That’s the interesting comparison and key point of contrast when looking at the United States. For me, it’s easy to look at areas in which the Scottish Parliament has easily more power than a U.S. state does. And also areas that are weaker (perhaps far weaker than the Founders ever imagined and far weaker than most states would want). But the thing is, the state’s role as a sovereign is one that is constitutionally protected. The Scottish Parliament technically isn’t and instead has all its powers statutorily granted to it by Westminster. Although it’s very unlikely to happen, theoretically, Westminster could get rid of the Scottish Parliament.

  10. I’d go with the temporary shift, AmbivalentSupporter.

    Both government and popular majority want to see Brussel’s ‘executive power-creep’ reversed. Once the next political headline comes out, normal service, as always, will be resumed.

  11. @ Ann (in Wales)

    “Well it hurts like hell to say it,but I agree with Roland
    Haines.It was a major mistake to let Greece into the EU.”

    It was a political decision back in 1982 – well the decision was made earlier (largely made in the US). They were playing the game very well, because after the collapse of the fascists, they were pretending that they were negotiating with the CMEA (Comecon). Wouldn’t have been quite nice with a NATO country…

  12. @Dangann

    “I think the chances of this [the collapse of the Tory Party] are quite high if you look at the polling. There is no way it can win another election, unless Labour itself starts infighting.”

    Welcome to these pages and, on the basis of your first few contributions, I think I’m going to enjoy your feisty observations.

    This thread, with its usual monopoly of the same old posters saying the same old things (me included!), provides further evidence that the forum is crying out for some fresh perspectives. I have a funny feeling that you’re going to provide them and more strength to your pen, I say!

    As for tonight’s poll, it contains further perversities. Government approval improves, yet the Tory VI declines and the Labour lead widens! I fully expect Labour to take a double digit lead at the same time as most respondents say that they trust the Yorkshire Ripper more with the economy than Ed Miliband!!

  13. Don’t think admitting Greece to the EU was the mistake – that was a very good way to bring a democratically unstable country into the democratic fold. The mistake was to allow Greece into the Euro. Everyone acknowledges this now, if they are being honest.

    Disappointing week on the economy so far after some more encouraging signs last week, particularly from the US. Today’s UK manufacturing data from the CBI October survey was dire – absolutely dire. Exports are shrinking and the sector now expects recession in Q4. Meanwhile the US consumer confidence data took another big dive, snuffing out thoughts that last week’s more positive data was a sign of something better round the corner.

    For the UK, Q3 looks pretty flat, but the sands are shifting for Q4. This is the one that now looks almost inevitably one of contraction. If Q3 is negative (not likely I suspect, but it could be close) then we will probably be in recession by Christmas.

  14. “If you had to choose, which of the following
    options would be best for Britain?”

    A majority Conservative government 32%
    A coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal
    Democrats 8%
    A coalition between Labour and the Liberal
    Democrats 11%
    A majority Labour government 29%
    Don’t know 20%

    Is that the first time that a Conservative majority has been the most popular in a poll for a while?

    Note too that the sample show a larger sample of Labour than Conservative voters.

  15. oldnat @ Roger Mexico

    “Look at Scottish cross-breaks? Heaven forfend!”

    No don’t do that, you will be misled by the conference bounce. .. bound? … rocket?

    Surprising that nobody has asked if the conference was a success or a failure.

    I hope that by 2015 we have more than cross breaks to go on especially as the uncertainty and range of possible outcomes in Scottish seats is so great, as is also the potential for game changing consequenses.

    If the SNP got all the Scottish seats it wouldn’t make much difference to anyone in Scotland because their NHS, Education, Justice, Transport and much else is devolved. These are the things people write to their MP/MSP about.

    If the SNP win even half the seats, it will be a huge headache (and a learning experience) for party leaders, whips and committee chairs.

  16. @OldNat

    :)

    You’ve only just noticed? For Welsh VI, Yougov have Socialist, Communist & Christian options; I don’t know why they don’t just replace Respect with ‘Socialist’.

  17. John B Dick

    More appropriately, I’m amazed by the incompetence of all these pollsters. To find the occasional sample in which the SNP have more supporters in Westminster VI than Labour wouldn’t be unusual, but they have been doing that quite regularly since May.

    “Everyone knows” that Scots vote massively for Labour at Westminster, so the pollsters clearly all share a common methodological problem in that they keep finding more SNP than Lab Westminster VI, and the samples where Lab lead SNP are the unusual ones.

  18. @OldNat (again)

    As someone who’s not exactly been convinced by the supposed “Westminster effect” that’ll mean SNP voters don’t bother voting for them in general elections, I distinctly remember you being unexpectedly diplomatic about it in the past – lending it credibility, almost – so it seems weird you’re now mocking it!

  19. Craig

    I’ve been boring on about YGs inclusion of Respect here for a while. :-)

    It would make sense for YG to aggregate the Heinz Socialist varieties, as a way of assessing a political stance (no matter how splintered at any one time.

    I’ve always assumed that Respect was included because London used to have a Respect MP, and YG is not immune from London-centric thinking.

    That it makes YG look daft as a brush to everyone outside London probably doesn’t bother them.

  20. Craig

    I’m not exactly sure what you mean by the “Westminster effect” in the context of my posts.

    What I have constantly said is that Scots votes depend on the prism through which they are seeing politics – a UK or a Scottish focus.

    Nothing I have seen suggests I am wrong in that analysis.

    If the Ian Davidson row has any effect on VI (and I doubt it will be significant on its own) it will be because it will be observed through a Scottish prism.

  21. Old Nat,

    “YouGov is making itself look very silly”

    Anthony,

    After his display of petulance, please don’t give Old Nat any respect whatsoever……… ;-)

  22. Bluejock

    I admire your advocacy of Respect. (Go on, admit it, George Galloway is a pal of yours). :-)

  23. @ Old Nat

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2011/10/24/snp-condemns-gay-blood-ban/

    Was this at the conference you were at? Your party did good. :)

  24. For the benefit of evryone the SNP is at 42% on the Scottish sub sample tonight campared with Labour’s 29!

    This could be nothing to get exceited about or could be part of a pattern as in last nights Angus Reid 44% or ICMs 53%.

    Fact is the NATS are on a big mo role.

  25. SoCalLiberal

    Yes that was at the Inverness SNP Conference. It was a good debate.

    To be fair, it won’t necessarily change Scottish Government policy in the near future, as the scientific evidence will need to be re-evaluated. However, the party’s instinct is clear.

  26. Old Nat,

    I choose my friends more carefully than that :-)

    On a serious note, I confess a sneaking admiration for GG, the man clearly has a fearsome intellect **, but doesn’t always find the wisest way of exercising it………

    (** that doesn’t mean I want to retain Respect on YG!)

  27. BlueJock

    His filleting of the US Senate(?) Committee was wonderful to watch. We don’t have to agree with his views to admire his expertise.

  28. Old Nat,

    Yes, a truly magnificent piece of political theatre. The Senate Committee faces were a picture that still lives long in the memory……..

  29. oldnat @ John B Dick

    “Everyone knows” that Scots vote massively for Labour at Westminster…”

    They did, once upon a time. Either your theory was right or some big change took place between the 2010 and 2011 elections. It was’t picked up even to a limited degree till just about the poll, and I havn’t heard anybody boast about predicting the result.

    You have shown a higher level of SNP support for SNP since the 2011 election.

    I accept that to some extent there must be a change or trend in Westminster. That doesn’t mean that there are some flippers. Wht we need is a poll that would separate them and quantify them.

    Another explanation is possible if the following propositions are true.

    1 In 2010 Labour was still seen as best buy for AntiCons

    2 After the election, pollsters asked for VI and rspondents didn’t bother to make a considered judgement and just gave past vote.

    3 Respondents didn’t make a considered judgement till they saw during the 2011 campaign what was on offer.

    4 They changed to SNP late and have stuck there. VI for 2015 is much higher than 2010 but not necessarily as high as 2011 because of competence and leader approval/impact differences.

    5 Actual VI is probably greater than Lab, but not yet as high as 44%.

    6 Oldnat knows more than he is letting on.

  30. there AREN’T some flippers

  31. @ Old Nat

    “His filleting of the US Senate(?) Committee was wonderful to watch. We don’t have to agree with his views to admire his expertise.”

    He did make Norm Coleman look like an idiot (which he is). I still don’t like the man though.

  32. @ Old Nat

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/26/1030031/-A-Primer-on-Future-Marriage-Equality-in-the-United-Kingdom?showAll=yes&via=blog_713872

    Check this out and let me know if there’s anything flat out wrong or highly objectionable in it.

  33. @ Statgeek

    “Is that the first time that a Conservative majority has been the most popular in a poll for a while?

    Note too that the sample show a larger sample of Labour than Conservative voters.”

    It is within the margin of error but not very good for Labour.

  34. @ Old Nat

    “Yes that was at the Inverness SNP Conference. It was a good debate.

    To be fair, it won’t necessarily change Scottish Government policy in the near future, as the scientific evidence will need to be re-evaluated. However, the party’s instinct is clear.”

    But it might lead to a government change in the future and that’s a good thing.

  35. SoCalLiberal

    While I’d disagree with your characterisation of the election system for our Parliament, I’ll let that go.

    Otherwise, a fair assessment. I’d say.

    One thing, however, the name of the party is the “Scottish National Party” – better to get these things right (I know how you dislike being described as the “Democratic” party – since neither of the two main parties in the USA are “democratic” in the sense that I understand the term. I’m inclined to agree with you! :-) )

  36. @ John B Dick

    Would turnout have affected the results? I ask this with the caveat that I HATE this sort of argument when it gets used to diminish an electoral victory. But I think that the turnout for the Holyrood Election was significantly lower than the Westminster one.

  37. @ Old Nat

    “While I’d disagree with your characterisation of the election system for our Parliament, I’ll let that go.

    Otherwise, a fair assessment. I’d say.

    One thing, however, the name of the party is the “Scottish National Party” – better to get these things right (I know how you dislike being described as the “Democratic” party – since neither of the two main parties in the USA are “democratic” in the sense that I understand the term. I’m inclined to agree with you! )”

    I’m sorry and I’ll change that immediately. And actually, I like being described as “Democratic”. It’s being described as “Democrat” that I have a problem with (although quite honestly, I think the whole thing is a little silly but whatever, I’ll stick with tradition).

    I think it’s too long actually (I tend to drone on sometimes and it’s a problem) but honestly, I think it’s kind of required just because of the breadth of information. Plus in any blog entry to Americans where you discuss the SNP, you have to add in a bit about the meaning of “Nationalist.”

  38. SoCalLiberal

    The turnout question is always interesting.

    I suspect it depends on whether potential voters think the outcome will be significant to their lives.

    For example EU citizens, resident in Scotland, are entitled to vote in elections to the Scottish Parliament, but may not see themselves as being affected by (or even morally entitled to vote on) the result.

    The same may apply to those UK citizens who see themselves as being only temporarily resident in Scotland.

    I don’t know of any research into such factors affecting differential turnout levels, but it would be interesting to see some research into that.

  39. SoCalLiberal

    Sorry. I got your objection the wrong way round!

    But yes, I’m grateful for your explanation of what “Nationalist” means in Scotland. The term comes totally from the “National Party” being one of the parties that merged into the SNP.

    I took Russian friends to Calton Hill in Edinburgh and explained to them the significance of a quote by the poet Hugh McDiarmid inscribed there. As an aside I told them that McDiarmid was thrown out of the SNP for being a Communist, and out of the Communist Party for being a Nationalist.

    That simply didn’t compute in their terminology, and took some explanation to make them understand that terms have different meanings in different political systems.

  40. Socal Liberal

    I don’t think turnout was important and it is difficult to interpret because it is caused by multiple factors.

    SPICE briefing is here

    http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_11-29.pdf

  41. statgeek

    Is that the first time that a Conservative majority has been the most popular in a poll for a while?

    No only four weeks ago (tracker is hidden on page 13 of Government Approval).

    I suppose I could argue that the increase to 20% in Don’t Know is significant (highest ever!), but there’s been so many 19%s in the past that it would be a bit unconvincing.

    The strange thing is how little the response to this question seems to change. It’s barely changed all year and the 3 point jump for ‘Con Only’ this time is probably due to the methodological change in the last fortnight. Other changes are well within margin of error.

  42. Roger Mexico

    Extraordinaly high praise from Mrs Nat for your post on the posturing of a section of older, male SLab politicians.

    I have cancelled our trip to Mann, in case she seizes you, and carries you off (as our fishermen have a bad habit of doing with your shellfish).

  43. @ Old Nat

    “Sorry. I got your objection the wrong way round!”

    Not a problem. Why do you consider neither party to be democratic?

    “But yes, I’m grateful for your explanation of what “Nationalist” means in Scotland. The term comes totally from the “National Party” being one of the parties that merged into the SNP.

    I took Russian friends to Calton Hill in Edinburgh and explained to them the significance of a quote by the poet Hugh McDiarmid inscribed there. As an aside I told them that McDiarmid was thrown out of the SNP for being a Communist, and out of the Communist Party for being a Nationalist.

    That simply didn’t compute in their terminology, and took some explanation to make them understand that terms have different meanings in different political systems.”

    Heh. I can imagine the confusion. It’s also confusing if you have to translate political explanations into Russian where there aren’t exactly a lot of words for certain words we take for granted.

    Hugh McDiarmid sounds like an interesting character. He kinda reminds me of John Lindsay (who was a Republican, a Liberal, and a Democrat throughout his long career) and Ed Koch (although Ed Koch technically never officially changed parties though he’s done so severeal times).

  44. Thee are marriage differences between Scotland and England. In England I think the CoE still has an obligation to do the deed and can and does do it.

    In Scotland it is not complete until the religious celebrant or other person of public office has completed registration with the Local government registrar within a fixed short period of time.

    I believe Unitarians at least will provide a religious ceremony for civil partnerships [a sort of devo-max solution].

    A gay american boy can’t marry someone close in line to the throne unless protestant [that may change soon]and with the Queen’s permission.

    The convention is that the HoL does not reject manifesto committments. I don’t know if this is one.

    The Scottish Parliament will certainly pass the legislation As you point out, Labour and LibDems are supportive and the Green party leader and the leading contender for the Conservative leadership are openly gay.

    When they do, the Scottish tail will wag the English dog, as all the English weddings will be over the border. That used to be the practice for hetrosexual weddings when the age of consent was lower, and the first town over the border, Gretna, still does a roaring trade. Earlier still, membership of the CoE was obligatory and dissenters travelled over the border.

    I’m aware of another situation where a Scottish minister may have changed the way the law was applied in England.

    A lot of people in Scotland in the tourist industry would be delighted if England refused to pass the legislation. I’m going to a wedding in a big castle near Inverness next year, and we have dozens of places like that. There is another where I live and it too and many others have access to premium quality, fresh very local, often organic, food. Moray is where much of Scotland’s best produce comes from.

    I don’t think SNP supporters prefer devo-max they just see it as the penultimate gradualist step, and transitional.

  45. @ John B Dick

    “I don’t think turnout was important and it is difficult to interpret because it is caused by multiple factors.

    SPICE briefing is here”

    Thanks. I mean I don’t think it’s a factor either….usually…it can be in some very rare and exceptional instances.

  46. @ Old Nat

    “I suspect it depends on whether potential voters think the outcome will be significant to their lives.”

    I wonder if there are some Scots who vote in the Westminster elections but not the Holyrood elections because they believe the Westminster ones to be more important (even if that belief is erroneous).

  47. SoCalLiberal

    Small point but I think you’ll find that Patrick Harvie identifies as bisexual, at least according to this piece:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/25/bisexual-men-study?

    I remembered this article because I was highly amused by Northwestern report (via the NYT) proving wrong a previous study declaring the male bisexual a mythical beast.

    The previous study had recruited its subjects via their personal ads and apparently people sometimes don’t tell the truth in those. Who would have thought it?

    (Also when I first saw the NYT report, my immediate thought wasn’t “Ooh, sex” but “Ooh, methodology”. How sad is that?)

    OldNat

    I am most highly honoured by Mrs Nat’s praise. When I was searching for the Harvie article I discovered another example, an unlikely Observer columnist called Kevin McKenna (who seems to have a particular loathing for Harvie). He’s so “Hey, you, Jimmy” that I can only assume that he’s really the Earl of Somewhere.

  48. @ John B Dick

    “A lot of people in Scotland in the tourist industry would be delighted if England refused to pass the legislation. I’m going to a wedding in a big castle near Inverness next year, and we have dozens of places like that. There is another where I live and it too and many others have access to premium quality, fresh very local, often organic, food. Moray is where much of Scotland’s best produce comes from.”

    I think England will pass the legislation, they’re just going to take a very long time to do it. I think Scotland would be an amazing place to honeymoon. It’s beautiful and I would imagine a great romantic setting.

    I think that legal same-sex marriage in England will benefit the Scottish tourism industry. Because those who can’t get married in England are only going to go to Scotland if they’re well off and can afford to have what’s basically a show wedding that won’t be recognized in the law. But if English and Welsh couples can start getting married for real, they’ll shed out extra bucks to go to Scotland to have their weddings and honeymoons in Scotland. They don’t want to limit themselves.

    “The convention is that the HoL does not reject manifesto committments. I don’t know if this is one.”

    I don’t think this was a manifesto committment. Neither Labour nor the Tories committed to this during the general election (the Lib Dems may have, the Greens may have). David Miliband was opposed to same-sex marriage until he changed his mind right before the leadership convention. Cameron was hedging on this until a few weeks ago.

    “A gay american boy can’t marry someone close in line to the throne unless protestant [that may change soon]and with the Queen’s permission.”

    Really? I didn’t know that. That’s kinda wild. I was joking of course just because I think the whole obsession with the royal wedding over the fairy tale aspect to it kinda silly (and wanted to have a play on that).

  49. SoCalLiberal

    Small point but I think you’ll find that Patrick Harvie identifies as bisexual, at least according to a recent piece in the The Paper That Must Not Be Linked To. You’ll have to do a search for his name on Comment is Free.

    I remembered this article because I was highly amused by Northwestern report (via the NYT) proving wrong a previous study declaring the male bisexual a mythical beast.

    The previous study had recruited its subjects via their personal ads and apparently people sometimes don’t tell the truth in those. Who would have thought it?

    (Also when I first saw the NYT report, my immediate thought wasn’t “Ooh, sex” but “Ooh, methodology”. How sad is that?)

    OldNat

    I am most highly honoured by Mrs Nat’s praise. When I was searching for the Harvie article I discovered another example, an unlikely Observer columnist called Kevin McKenna (who seems to have a particular loathing for Harvie). He’s so “Hey, you, Jimmy” that I can only assume that he’s really the Earl of Somewhere.

    [Anthony, please remove my previous two attempts to post this. Thanks (but you’ve only got yourself to blame)]

  50. So cal

    Are you involved with the occupy movement at all. It’s starting to evolve into a online democracy experiment I think.

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