Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Others 15%. The four point Labour lead is very much the norm for YouGov, but worth noting is that hidden within that 15% is 7% for UKIP. YouGov have shown UKIP as high as 6 several times in recent weeks, so it’s hardly a massive difference, but nevertheless it’s the highest YouGov have shown them since June 2009, straight after the European elections.

There is also a new Angus Reid poll out here, which has topline figures of CON 33% (nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1). Changes are from last month.

288 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 40, LDEM 9”

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  1. intresting that these high ukip scores are coinciding with a relativley low labour lead

  2. @colin
    Well the role model, the United States of America, had to have civil war in order to configure itself in its modern guise. I feel sure that New Hampshire and Georgia were no more different, than Germany and Greece.

  3. Chou

    Yes-interesting thought.

    I sometimes wonder as the latest crowd of Greeks demonstrates to retain their 14 months pa public sector salaries , pension rights whatever, whether they are as resentful of Germany as their own politicians.

    Memories of an earlier relationship with Germany are still present .

    I see Berlusconi said he doesn’t need lectures from France & Germany on how to manage Italian finances!!!

    ……….did you see that whilst Merkel & Sarkozy stay in 600 euro per night suites when in Brussels-Silvio occupies one in the 4000 euro per night price bracket…….you have to laugh :-)

  4. Stanley
    Yes, you are (probably) right – UKIP won’t win any seats.

    But I wanted to encourage DanGann (a newcomer?) to comment further.

  5. COLIN.

    I too wish you a very full recovery.

    Bournemouth’s air and beaches are wonderful places in which to recuperate.

    It is also possible here to make a micro study of England’s social changes.

    Large houses broken into bed sit flats.
    Very wealthy people living close to very poor people.
    A much in demand Food Bank, organised by ‘churches together’
    East European workers doing so many low paid jobs.

    A sadly failing soccer team.

    Two young, and very able tory mp’s one of whom grew up on Falls Road.

  6. @COLIN
    Speaking to James Ellis MEP (Tory) last friday, he alluded to the fact that very little checks and balances, had hither to been in place, when “mating” the economies of poor relations with the super rich within the EZ. Therefore, the likes of Greece thought Santa Nickolides was arriving every day of the year, once Germany was their new best friend. Perhaps the historical interlude you refer to between the two countries, made some Greeks think of some form of unofficial reparation.

  7. Interesting announcements from GO that not only will the qualifying period for employment tribunals be extended to two years of employment… But that the employees will have to pay an upfront fee to cover the legal costs. There was also a statement that those on low pay *may* be given a reduced fee. (I would assume that the “may” there refers to what they decide to do with Legal Aid for employment tribunals, and they have signaled they intend to abolish that as well.)

    The change was supported by GO quoting figures that 80% of employment tribunal cases were not brought to court. Obscuring that half of those cases did not go to court because the employer settled out of court to avoid admitting liability.

    What’s more interesting is who the announcement comes from, GO instead of VC, who’s remit should cover employment tribunals. Is this a sign of the GO gathering powers, or VC abdicating the ones that would make him look nasty.

  8. @chris lane 1945
    Two young, and very able tory mp’s one of whom grew up on Falls Road.

    That would not be the Falls road that I used to patrol, so it wouldn’t.

  9. Yes, the same Falls Road, and now a tory mp!

    and one of my 5 brothers also patrolled the same road.

    After he left sandhurst.

    The Bournemouth West MP, Conor Burns: a good man so he is.

  10. @CHRIS LANE 1945
    Ah a Sandhurst man. You should of said, he’s capable of anything, anything good that is.

  11. Ah, I’m a little slow… The tribunal fees was announced back at the start of the month. (I was a little distracted then with some personal issues, my Ex having passed away.) The reason it’s back in the news is because of a paper published by a Conservative think-tank previously backed by No.10 saying that Employment Tribunals should be abolished entirely.

  12. Chou.
    Hello again, we are not natural political bed fellows I think (LOL as the kids seem to say)

    My brother is a Sandhurst Man.

    Conor Burns MP (Bournemouth West) is not.

    Visitors to Bournemouth can see a divided society in microcosm here.
    Schools: very good ones in which to learn, with some bad ones in which to learn.
    Housing: Nice places in which to grow up, and not very nice at all
    Food Banks for hungry families, near the dinner party circuits.
    Low Pay alongside very high pay

    Both parts of the governing elites are to blame.
    But we have to sort it out. (I will have to account for my own actions in these regards when my soul is judged, credo)
    Not good enough for a decent, or Great Society.

  13. @CHRIS

    Thanks :-)


    “very little checks and balances, had hither to been in place, when “mating” the economies of poor relations with the super rich within the EZ. Therefore, the likes of Greece thought Santa Nickolides was arriving every day of the year, once Germany was their new best friend. Perhaps the historical interlude you refer to between the two countries, made some Greeks think of some form of unofficial reparation.”

    RE your last sentence-maybe-but my impression when on holiday there in the past was of continuing dislike -even hatred-from that time.

    I can imagine a readiness to “blame” Germany for being forced to recognise that they cannot afford the lifestyle they awarded themselves.

  14. According to wiki:

    “The Greek labor force, which totals approximately 5 million, works the second highest number of hours per year on average among OECD countries, after South Korea.”

  15. @COLIN
    It has fascinated me for 50 plus years that every country in Europe has or does still hate the Germans. The exceptions are of course Switzerland, Sweden, Portugal & Spain.
    The feeling in Italy for example hardly bears discussion.
    It seems that when the DM’s are flowing its ok, but when times get tough, the old cracks start to show and the old hurts start getting aired again.

  16. @CHOU

    I blame the sun loungers. Take them away and people have little reason to dislike the Germans. :)

  17. @NICKP
    The Greeks could work twice as many hours as the North Koreans, that does not mean they are as wealthy as the North Europeans. Its not about fair, its about reality.

  18. Colin

    The average pension age is higher in Greece than in germany

  19. And the amount paid is lower

  20. So the Greeks work longer hours for less money and eventually smaller and later pensions than Germany.

    In what way is this the luxury lifestyle that they supposedly “awarded” themselves, Colin?

    And now to pay for that fact they get less than Germans, the Germans are insisting they give that up, too.

  21. @statgeek
    Please, no jokes on this subject. Just because the events
    of the 1st half of the last century have not impacted on your life, please don’t expect every older European still living to have amnesia. I was not born in the last world war, but I have heard a very great deal about it. Had I been a central, eastern or southern European, my life would have been very much harder thanks largely to the Reich. As for the stories which would have assaulted my ears for the last 60 years, the relatives murdered and killed, I think beach towels would hardly matter. BTW, there is many a Dutchman, Norwegian, Dane and Frenchman none to keen.

  22. Mike N

    The Vince Cable VAT thing looks pretty innocuous. He made so much money from media-tarting, books etc in 2009-10 that he went over the VAT threshold. His accountants didn’t spot this (they should have, the man was omnipresent) until this January. When they did, HMRC were contacted straight away and paid as soon as requested. They even halved the usual fine due to this promptness (HMRC wouldn’t have spotted non-payment because he’d not needed to register before).

    You wouldn’t have expected Cable to notice himself because, as a government minister, he’s not supposed to look or even think about his personal financial affairs (yeah, I know, but that’s the theory they’re all supposed to follow). There’s an informative piece in the Paper That Must Not Be Linked To.

    I think you’re right about -31 being a new low in Government Approval for this Parliament. To put in context though, at the equivalent period of the previous Parliament GA was {23-61 = -38}, though then Labour had started out on GA of -14. Because they had the support of two Parties, the coalition began on around +20, so you could argue their fall from grace is further.

    That said, although YouGov weren’t polling at the equivalent time in the 2001-05 Parliament, they started shortly after with a GA of {28-62 = -34} and Labour went on to win the next election.

  23. A friend just pointed this out to me, demonstrating problems with the current popular line that “The original referendum was on economic not political union, we’ve never had a chance to vote for or against closer political union.”

    In his address to the Conservative Party political conference in *1962*, Macmillan said the following,
    “It is true that the governments of the Six1 are anxious to move forward from an economic to some form of political union and we want to play our part in devising these new arrangements.”

    By the time of the 1975 referendum, the ECC had been administratively merged by the Brussels Treaty with EURATOM and ECSC. TREVI had existed since 1972, WEU defence cooperation had been firmly established for decades. And most important of all, the UK had been in active public negotiations for the European Political Cooperation treaty since 1970.

    The idea that we did not know in 1975, that EEC membership was tied to political as well as economic union, is absurd. And it has only been applied in retrospect by those who wish to re-write history to make it appear like we were tricked into it.

  24. @nick p
    For heavens sake Nick, the Greek economy has been getting deeper and deeper and deeper in the red for 30 years. They have not attempted to do anything about it. Now it is to late. Frankly the Germans should have seen this coming a long time ago. We all know you are a devout socialist and all that, but you know, people do have to take some responsibility for there own actions sometime you know.

  25. Roger Mexico

    I agree that the VC tax penalty issue is now no more than acute embarassment. Not sure how it all came to light though.

    The gov (dis)approval is but one guide to how joe public perceive the gov. I expect it will return to ‘normality’ – somewhere between -23 and -28 soon. On the other hand…this latest dip in approval coincides with 18 months of this gov – a time when arguably the public begin to view the incumber according to its performance since gaining office and to view the outgoing party in a less critical tone. (Perhaps…!)

  26. incumber = incumbent

  27. ‘Ochi Day’

    The 28th of October each year is a public holiday in both Greece and Cyprus. It is known as ‘Ochi Day’. ochi means ‘No’ in Greek.

    It commemorates the date in 1940 when the Greeks refused to allow the Italians, backed by Hilter’s Germany, free access Greece. The Greek reply to the request was short and to the point – ‘Ochi’. It brought Greece into the war on the side of the UK. At that time of course France and most of Europe (except the UK) was under the control of the Germans.

    The Greeks not only prevented the Italians crossing Greece, but actually took the offensive driving the Italians back across Albania. This forced Germany to intervene and divert vital troops to the invasion and occupation of Greece. It is thought to have delayed the eventual German invasion of Russia by several months, which meant that Germany was then faced with a summer/winter 1941 offensive rather than the originally planned spring/summer 1941. The dogged resistance of the Russians and an early winter stopped the Germans’ advance just short of Moscow. The Russians recovered, took the offensive and the rest is history.

    So for those who have seen the film ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding’ terms not only does every word have a Greek language origin (including Kimono!!) but they also saved the free world.

    The co-incidence of Greece opposing financial conditions demanded by a Germany controlled Europe with the situation in 1940 will certainly not be lost on the Greeks.

    Will Greece say ‘Ochi’ again?

  28. I want to avoid discussion of today’s P-M-Q session, but I wonder how joe public will view the PM’s use of the words “mug” and “hypocrites”t o descrive EM and Lab, respectively. (Obviously little respect there however.)

    I’m sure Con backbenchers loved it. And DC was it seesm smarting from last week’s session.

    Is this more of DC’s Flashman nature?

  29. @roger mexico
    “The paper that must not be linked to”. AW quite rightly banned this practice because certain posters were turning this board into the Polly Toynbee appreciation society, which it ain’t.
    @Jay Blanc
    Your last post is an awful lot of writing about I am not sure what. Many Tory MP’s are under starters orders from their constituency parties to push for a referendum on Europe.
    The opinion polls (which I trust you put some stock in),
    tell us some 60 % of people would like a referendum on this issue. The fact that Jay Blanc is a left wing LD and loves the EU, is great but not important.

  30. @mike n
    I think we must ask ourselves, based on Tom Browns Schooldays and the wonderful George McDonald Fraser books. Would Flashman have joined the Bulingdon Club, had he not gone straight in the Army (as I did myself).

    IMPO the answer is a definite YES.

  31. The thing is, Flashman was a great character in the books, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t anything except a bounder.

    I don’t mind the PQT knockabouts, but I don’t think they intrude much on the worlds of voters. The polls don’t move around much at all at the moment, so I don’t think calling EM a mug will have cause a seismic shift, either way.

  32. SoCalLiberal @ Old Nat

    “Is there any wing of the SNP that supports Devomax instead of outright independence? Or is Devomax something suggested by others and speculated on as something that the SNP might wind up agreeing to?”

    The latter, and believed to be what the majority would prefer. For the SNO it would be a step in the right direction, welcome, but a disappointment for there would be no going back, and going forward would need a further push.

    There are fundamentalists who think one more heave and they will land it. History has proved them wrong.

    I remember a nationalists arguing with Donald Dewar against a Home Rule parliament on the grounds that the good was the enemy of the best and also the slippery slope argument that it would inevitably lead to independence. Donald’s answer was that if he thought that it was a slippery slope, he should support it. He didn’t deny that it might be.

    Up to the referendum, Conservatives argued against devolution that it was a slippery slope. Not a cheep from then since, and PR has been very good to them.

    The slippery slope has been the Nationalists strategy for decades. There are at most three steps left.

    1 UK Parliament majority of Scottish seats
    2 Referendum devo-max
    3 Referendum independence

    It looks to me it could be Independence yes/no
    & if no, then Devo-max or status quo.

    Unionists will say this is too complicated for stupid Scots and they will argue for three questions in the hope that split will deny the independence minded their second best option.

    Unionists will not push for ending devolution for the same reason. They do not want to risk dividing the anti-independence vote.

    My guess is that what people want is as much devolution as they can get, now, and keep the option of independence in reserve perhaps to be used late.

    In this it is a mistake to look at the SNP as the main players and the voters as passive, reponding to stimuli from the parties and external factors.

    In a 4-6 party system, the electorate are players too, and they have long used the SNP to punish the other parties, initially Conservatives, but recently LibDem and Labour. They know that independence is a matter for a referendum, because devolution was and are relaxed about the Unionists attacks on the SNP’s flagship policy.

    The SNP have never once complained of being used in this way, and they can see that the other parties are in line for a kicking for different sorts of bad behaviour.

    The SNP are pleased to be of service and hopeful that they may increase interest in independence, but the electorate are content with things as they are.

    My guess is that voters will soon turn nasty and vindictive, and the SNP will get what they want.

  33. John b

    What if the ref is done on the AV principle, then you could have the three options and vote in order of preference

  34. The issue with Greece is not workshy hordes but has been their terrible inability to collect the tax that is owed due to mass evasion and poor / corrupt collection.

    Newsnight at the start of this was very good: Paul Mason stood in a marina surrounded by luxery yachts and boats (with Porsche and Ferraris in the car park) reporting that the highest recorded income in Greece- according to the Greek IR- was 100,000 quid !!!

    Probably an IR inspector ;-)

  35. RiN

    @”The average pension age is higher in Greece than in germany”

    h ttp://

    h ttp://

    (click through the above one)

    @ Rob Sheffield

    “The issue with Greece is not workshy hordes but has been their terrible inability to collect the tax that is owed due to mass evasion and poor / corrupt collection.”

    Yes-clearly a core problem.

  36. MIKEN

    @”but I wonder how joe public will view the PM’s use of the words “mug” and “hypocrites””

    Interesting question.

    Didn’t like either-but my guess would be that the former would be thought less acceptable than the latter.

  37. @Rob S

    “The issue with Greece is not workshy hordes but has been their terrible inability to collect the tax that is owed due to mass evasion and poor / corrupt collection.”

    I’ve only been to Greece once, and that was many years ago, so don’t know a great deal about it as a country beyond what I’ve read, but don’t they also have some bizarre and ingenious ways of avoiding tax too? When I was there I seem to recall noticing a great number of half finished buildings with concrete reinforcement steel rods protruding from the roof as if another floor was about to be added. The houses usually had at least one floor inhabited and, when I enquired about this strange practice, I was told that all sorts of building related taxes were avoided by living in a house still, allegedly, “under construction”. Of course, the owners had no intention of completing the building and it would appear that the Greek tax collecting authorities had neither the wit nor the will to close the loophole!

    All part of the fun of the fair in this laid-back and sun-kissed paradise. Beware Greeks bearing taxes, or not as the case may be!

  38. NICKP

    @”The Greek labor force, which totals approximately 5 million, works the second highest number of hours per year on average among OECD countries, after South Korea.”

    Doesn’t mean anything I’m afraid Nick.

    Our forbears worked more hours than we do-it just means they were less productive-and of course made things no one wants to buy now.

    OECD have produced comparative productivity data.

    Expressed as GDP per hr worked with Purchasing Power differentials adjusted, and as % of USA =100 , Germany & Greece ( 2010 data) compared as follows :-

    Germany 89.8%
    Greece 54.5%

    And this ( together with the lack of tax revenue which RS highlights) is the core Greek problem-they aren’t competitive-they can’t grow their economy.

    Other comparisons are of interest ( same data same basis )
    Ireland 97.3%
    France 92.1%
    Spain 79.7%
    UK 78.5%

    h ttp://
    Portugal 54.1%

  39. The thing is if the Greek Government opted for generous pensions (and apparently miserly unemployment benefits) this seems like a fair deal. The pensions bill will be large but welfare much smaller. It’s a matter of priorities amongst the voters.

    But if you say, oh we promised you a generous pension in lieu of other benefits and on the understanding you all work long hours, it’s not going to go down well if you say, oh we can’t afford them now.

    It’s the Government that hasn’t either collected the taxes or funded any pensions. No good trying to blame the workers.

  40. “POrtugal 54.1% ” is a statistic-not part of that link !! :-)

  41. NICKP

    @”It’s the Government that hasn’t either collected the taxes or funded any pensions. No good trying to blame the workers”

    ……….apart from the workers who avoid paying their taxes -which seems to be everybody-from top to bottom.

  42. It seems to me that pairing a country with so many flaws in its fiscal activities,( as well as being about as productive as say West Yorkshire and Lancashire), with the European number 1 powerhouse, is an obvious mistake. To then allow Mr Karamanlis to ignore the nations debt situation year in year out, (whilst he spent every afternoon on the private beach with his family, has helped no end). Those Greek leaders who have followed have been equally ineffectual and Brussels has allowed the matter to fester on. Now they say countries will have follow tight fiscal rules if they belong to the EURO. Its rather like wearing a condom after your girlfriend gets pregnant.

  43. I think it is a fair question for German taxpayers to ask, when they pay their own taxes promptly and without (much) complaint.

    Certainly in my own city of Plymouth, a large proportion of the restaurant/hotel business seems to be in the hands of phenomenally rich Greek families.

    I do think the (understandable) anger of the Greek working class could do with turning some of its attention to Greek targets, rather than blaming all of its woes on nasty foreign governments and financial institutions.

  44. The difference in approach / tone between DC and EM (plus others) increasingly it seems to me becomes more sharp as time passes.

    I have over the 18 months reserved judgment on DC as a PM. I have thought he would grow into the role like many previous occupants.

    I’m still unsure about EM but his style and demeanour are growing on me.

    At the same time, I begin to feel unhappy that DC is perhaps using expressions and phrases that a PM should not use.

    I recognise that my view is coloured (to some extent).

  45. Amusing stuff on Greek tax “collection”

    ht tp://


    ht tp://

  46. It could be that DC is seeking to get back the “common touch”, but Coulson’s gone and Glover is writing his scripts.

    Gonna be tears.

  47. @MIKE N
    May I congratulate you on your “not making your mind up” about Cameron / Miliband. You certainly kept your indecision fro me.

  48. I think Choenlai has rumbled you there, Mike.

  49. Chouenlai
    ‘May I congratulate you on your “not making your mind up” about Cameron / Miliband. You certainly kept your indecision fro me.’

    Possibly you were mislead by the dozens of posts over the past 18 months, attacking and criticising every action of DC, NC and the Coalition.

  50. Chouenlai

    May I congratulate you again for adding colour to this site again today with your hilarious sarcasm and general passion for your politics/views in a number of posts. I think you silenced a few posters with your down-to-earth responses.

    May you never be moderated again, it would be unbearably boring.

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