Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Others 15%. The four point Labour lead is very much the norm for YouGov, but worth noting is that hidden within that 15% is 7% for UKIP. YouGov have shown UKIP as high as 6 several times in recent weeks, so it’s hardly a massive difference, but nevertheless it’s the highest YouGov have shown them since June 2009, straight after the European elections.

There is also a new Angus Reid poll out here, which has topline figures of CON 33% (nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1). Changes are from last month.


288 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 40, LDEM 9”

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  1. Seems to be the YG anchor around which short term ‘events dear boy events’ create fluctuations/ deviations.

  2. @Iananthonyjames

    “Labour need the economy to perpetually stagnate to have any chance of returning to power.”
    Not true. Labour just need to hold on to the millions of Lib Dem voters who seem to have abandoned that party for good.”
    **

    The Tories unable to increase their 36% 2010 number would also suffice. Ashcroft seems unable to reconcile himself to that.

  3. others are doing really well still. at this rate they’ll be in government soon.

  4. @ Martyn (or anyone else who knows the answer)

    If David Cameron is able to push through legalization of same-sex marriage in Parliament, will that legislation include Wales as well or will it just be for England? I know that bill is separate from the one in Scotland. But I was unsure of Welsh Assembly powers on Family Law (and if anyone knew the answer…..).

  5. What happens if ukip poll higher than libdems, is it a tipping point where ukip becomes a serious problem for the blues. I mean is there a lot of latent support among blue voter which would switch if they thought ukip was a viable option. How many blue voters are tactical ukipers

  6. RiN

    I doubt that YouGov will ever change its classification of parties, Respect stays there on their list with a proud 0% support.

    If UKIP replaces the LDs in terms of popular support, YG will no doubt loyally stick to portraying the LDs as a major party, and UKIP as “other”.

  7. Not just ‘several times in recent weeks’, UKIP got 6% in five of the previous six polls. Non-voters are at 25% again as well. The increase is mostly coming from both ex-Labour and ex-Conservative voters. Dissatisfaction continues to gnaw away.

    I suspect the real consolation for the Cameron and co will be how badly Labour are doing at picking up the votes the Conservatives have lost. At the moment UKIP seem to be getting more defectors than Labour. Both these and the non-voters are more likely at the moment to go back home to the Tories than elsewhere.

  8. @SocialLiberal

    I think if the law was passed in the Commons it will apply to Wales, England and Northern Ireland (unless some excemptions are included given how the religious Northern Ireland is because even today they are the only country in the EU with Ireland I believe that do not allow abortions).

    I am unsure about Scotland though? I mean funny enough even before devolution Scotland and Northern Ireland had their own laws concerning the recognition of homosexuality with Scotland repealing it I believe in 1980 and Northern Ireland 82′. Strange considering they had no parliament then but hey. However, I do not think their family laws concerning gay marriage was included in the devolution and could be considered a more “constitutional” matter which Westministers holds supreme. I say constitutional lightly because, off course, we don’t exactly have a constitution really.

    So Scotland might have its own case but given how many of the public support gay marriage (with Northern Ireland being an iffy one) I think the law being applied universally within the union would be welcomed anyway in Wales and Scotland. Even one poll puts the lowest support for gay marriage by Angus Reid at 48%-39% against but most put it at between late 50’s to 60’s with most of the support coming from Scotland and Wales.

  9. Btw, it’s weird to think of UKIP being almost at the same polling level as the Lib Dems.

    Do you guys still make a big deal over the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote? I remember there was some discussion (prior to the 2010 elections) that for a very long time, the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote was over 50%. When the Tories had those big leads in 08′, 09′, and early 10′, there was a lot of talk about the combined number being under that and that spelling something positive for the Tories. I wonder if it’s positive for the Tories here that the combined Labour and Lib Dem numbers are beneath 50%.

    I think YouGov picks up trends ahead of the other polls. This explains why even as YouGov shows a narrowed lead for Labour, other polls show it expanding.

  10. Andy C

    Scotland legislates for itself on all matters not specifically reserved to Westminster.

    I’m not sure why you are surprised that Scots Law was different from England’s prior to 1999 – perhaps you are unaware of the Act of Union, and the administrative independence that Scotland has had since 1707 (though increasingly interfered with by a largely ignorant UK Parliament in the late 20th century.)

    In the case of gay marriage, England is the “Johnny come lately” (pun intended) since the Scottish consultation on this precedes the suggestion of the UK Government (wearing its English and Welsh, but not its Northern Irish hat, on this occasion) that it might legislate on the issue.

  11. @OldNat

    I am very aware of the Act of Union because I did history and I understand the principals of the Act but it still strikes me as very odd that the law on homosexuality would be considered as national issues rather than a universal acceptation by the union given that abortion was not considered one and was applied universally (accept Northern Ireland). So yeah I am aware of the Act of Union.

    And yes again, I am sure all of us are all very aware that Scotland had intentions to do the same before but as the saying goes the proof of the pudding is in the tasting and plus its common knowledge that in the UK their is a growing acceptance of gay marriage so it only seemed both fair and rational to legislate it.

    I mean the coalition plans are sensiable that it wont infringe on the rights of the religious institutions while making it equal(ish). Although I will defend the Methodist Church that this falls short on allowing the Churches themselves to legislate their own policy if they wanted it as many within the Methodist community have made attempts to marry gay couples in their church but disappointly the government feels it needs to speak for all religion.

  12. @ Andy C

    Scotland has its own legislative consultation on legalization of same-sex marriage already in process and I think their Parliament governs their own family law.

    (If there’s a way in which Westminster can override or veto the laws of Holyrood, I’m sure that one of the Nats or Roger or Martyn will explain under what circumstances that would occur).

  13. Andy C

    Always nice to chat with another historian.

    Presumably, the [UK] “government [wearing its English hat] feels it needs to speak for all religion” because England still has an Established Church, which no other part of the UK has.

    Consequently, the governance of England is inextricably linked to the Church of England.

    Naturally, I wouldn’t criticise another country’s systems – no matter how peculiar they might seem to my eyes.

  14. Some people always say they will vote against the government of the day inbetween General Elections which is why it is generally recognized that a party in opposition needs to be 10% or more ahead in opinion polls if it is to win the next General Election.

    Why, then do the opinion pollsters not take account of this ? Labour is not 10% ahead so what should the adjusted UNS projection be ?

  15. @ Old Nat

    “In the case of gay marriage, England is the “Johnny come lately” (pun intended) since the Scottish consultation on this precedes the suggestion of the UK Government (wearing its English and Welsh, but not its Northern Irish hat, on this occasion) that it might legislate on the issue.”

    Why thank you Old Nat. This answers my question then (I’m trying to do a diary on the current marriage equality legislation before the Scottish and British Parliaments….I want to explain in the most accurate way possible yet in a way that’s easy to understand for Kossacks and concise….which is hard for me). I guess I could have addressed my question to you too.

    Your pun is kinda funny.

    “Scotland legislates for itself on all matters not specifically reserved to Westminster.”

    Right. I am guessing that Wales got something that’s a different.

  16. @ Old Nat

    “Consequently, the governance of England is inextricably linked to the Church of England.”

    Right. The Church of Scotland, on the other hand, is not the official church of Scotland and is not a branch of government. See, I’m learning something!

    “Naturally, I wouldn’t criticise another country’s systems – no matter how peculiar they might seem to my eyes.”

    I try to follow this rule to an extent. I don’t always live up to it. :)

    My feeling is, it’s okay to criticize another country’s governing system in the context of explaining why you would not want your own to adopt that system of governance.

  17. @ Old Nat

    “In the case of gay marriage, England is the “Johnny come lately” (pun intended)”

    Still, David Cameron deserves enormous credit on this. He really is breaking the mold here for right wing party leaders. For example, in Canada and the Netherlands, Conservative Prime Ministers said that they opposed same-sex marriage but opposed repeal of the legislation enacted by the left wing governments that immediately preceded them. (Contra the Republican Party of New Hampshire) This here is a different instance where he’s proposing a forward and progressive change. Legalizing same-sex marriage is something that Jose Luis Zapatero describes as his proudest acheivement as Spanish Prime Minister.

    And there are probably a lot of members of his own party (the same ones who enacted Section 28 and military ban on LGBT armed service members) who are not happy with this development. Cameron risks their ire on this. So he deserves enormous credit even if he’s late on the issue compared to Scottish leaders (or for that matter, numerous Democratic legislative leaders in California, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, the District of Columbia, and New York who are ahead of the United Kingdom and most of Europe).

  18. The Conservative Party is clearly electorally dead, unable to beat a government of 13-years in 2010 was frankly dismal enough – now with the rise of votes towards UKIP, I cannot see how it can possibly win another election.

    As Peter Hitchens once stated, nothing revives the Labour Party like a Tory government.

  19. @ Old Nat

    Is there any wing of the SNP that supports Devomax instead of outright independence? Or is Devomax something suggested by others and speculated on as something that the SNP might wind up agreeing to?

  20. A new Sentio poll published in Norway a couple of days ago caused headlines due to the historic low support for Norwegian membership of the European Union. The pollster found just 18.6% of respondents wanted Norway to join.

    http://theforeigner.no/pages/news/norway-firm-on-anti-european-union/

    ht tp://www.nationen.no/2011/10/23/politikk/eu/eu-barometer/heming_olaussen/nei_til_eu/7003314/

  21. Not unrelated to the above poll, the white-collar Swedish trade union Saco are proposing that the Nordic Council grows from being a nice talking shop (cf. the British-Irish Council) into a potential currency union -> a ‘Nordic Union’:

    http://www.thelocal.se/36958/20111025/

    A similar proposal by Gunnar Wetterberg for political union was comprehensively rejected a couple of years ago:

    ht tp://www.norden.org/en/news-and-events/news/prime-ministers-reject-nordic-union

    Meanwhile, the polls are looking grim, grim, grim for the Swedish Social Democrats after the expenses scandal which nearly toppled their new leader:

    ht tp://www.thelocal.se/36908/20111023/

  22. @ Andy C

    “http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43971/two-in-five-britons-endorse-same-sex-marriage/”

    Is this the poll you were reffering to? It shows different slightly different numbers from what you give.

    I am surprised by the poll numbers on the couple that was kicked out of the pub for kissing. I wonder what polls of Americans would show.

    I thought their question on a marriage referendum was interesting. If those numbers were accurate, it’s likely that the voters would vote to ban same-sex marriage in a referendum and would do so by a 10% margin.

    Not all states have had referendums on the issue. The District of Columbia actually blocked a vote on the issue despite the big money campaign Christian Fundamentalist Conservatives to place the issue on the ballot and the support they received from local crackhead (Marion Berry). Call it the Christian-Crackhead Coalition.

    That reminds me though, I think that it’s a bad comparison on these particular issues (family law, criminal law, etc) to compare various European countries and Canada to “the United States.” That’s because the U.S. government doesn’t legislate (generally speaking) on these issues. So it’s hard to make an accurate comparisson.

    For example, people will speak of various western countries repealing their sodomy laws (the UK in 1967, Canada in 1969, 1981 in France, Spain in 1979). Then they’ll look at the 13 U.S. states that still had these laws on the books in 2003. However, that ignores the fact that California repealed its sodomy laws in 1976.

  23. @ Stuart Dickson

    “A new Sentio poll published in Norway a couple of days ago caused headlines due to the historic low support for Norwegian membership of the European Union. The pollster found just 18.6% of respondents wanted Norway to join.”

    I didn’t even know that Norway was not part of the EU. I thought they were members but didn’t join the Euro like Britain. I guess I’m confusing them with someone else. Of course until you pointed it out to me, I didn’t realize Sweden wasn’t in NATO. I do know that Norway is in NATO (maybe that’s what stems my confusion).

  24. @ Andy C

    @ Andy C (sorry for double reply but I got pushed into moderation for some reason)

    “http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43971/two-in-five-britons-endorse-same-sex-marriage/”

    Is this the poll you were reffering to? It shows different slightly different numbers from what you gave but close enough.

    I am surprised by the poll numbers on the couple that was kicked out of the pub for kissing. I wonder what a poll of Americans would show.

    I thought their question on a marriage referendum was interesting. If those numbers were accurate, it’s likely that the voters would vote to ban same-sex marriage in a referendum and would do so by a 10% margin.

    Not all states have had referendums on the issue. The District of Columbia actually blocked a vote on the issue despite the big money campaign Christian Conservatives to place the issue on the ballot and the support they received from local cr*ckhead (Marion Berry).

    Last point, I think it’s hard to compare European laws to the U.S. as a whole because on these issues (family law, criminal law), the states govern, not the federal government.

  25. Hmmm, been moderated twice now. Can’t figure out which word I used incorrectly. Oh well, it’ll eventually clear. Goodnight. :)

  26. The Scottish sub-sample (178 resp.) in that Angus Reid poll reads thus (+/- change from UK GE 2010):

    SNP 44% (+24)
    Lab 34% (-8)
    Con 13% (-4)
    LD 6% (-13)
    Grn 1% (n/c)
    UKIP 1% (n/c)
    BNP 0 (n/c)
    oth 2%

    Interestingly, that is very similar to the sub-sample in the Populus/Times poll published last week:

    SNP 48%, Lab 31%, Con 17%, LD 2%

  27. SoCal,
    The Lab+Lib have fallen below 50% since the General Election. I think 48% is the lowest.
    But the improved methodology means that (IIRC) Lab is down 0.8%, so that should be around 47%.
    I think the focus on the Lib-Lab figure is that it has a very narrow range, IIRC, 47-53-ish.
    And, at least since the GE, broadly speaking, a lower LD score means a higher Lab score.

    But due to the unfortunate nature of FPTP, it doesn’t really matter if that combined figure fell to 42%.. as long as the Tory VI fell proportionally.

  28. There we go – actual figures.
    48-55 has been the Lib-Lab range.
    43-63 for Lib-Con.
    Even ignoring the ‘post-election LibDem decline’ period – we get a range of 43-52.

    If we use just the weighted figures (to eliminate outliers) we get –
    Lib-Lab 49-53
    Lib-Con 44-51 (Post-decline)

    But the high Lib-Lab are the brief times when Lab gets to 43/44 and it is actually based on a small Con decline (Post-Phonehacking, etc).
    So removing the small Lab-Con transfer that we sometimes get, would leave Lab-Lib on about 49-51.

    But of course, that was before the improved methodology, which reduces the Lab score.

    This should be no real surprise though – and I only have the data for post-GE2010, so the link may not be *historically* true, only true for the post-GE period.

    So obviously what we can take from that, is that Labour need to be more like the Tories.. ignoring that a huge portion (over a quarter) are definitely on the liberal-left.. about a half will *always* vote Labour and, I’d imagine, the other quarter are split between the various left/centre-left/centre factions.
    But again, what Labour need to do, is be less liberal and more authoritarian and that will win them votes and not alienate their new-found voters. Or something.

  29. I expect to be corrected pdq, but I think this is the first time since the GE that gov (dis)approval has broken through the -30% mark – now stands at -31%.

    A reflection of the Con travails over the last week (ie the EU)?

  30. Stuart Dickson,

    I’m not sure if it makes sense to link up Denmark, Sweden (which FYI has had one of the better monetary policies over the past few years) and Finland with a petro-currency like the Norwegian kroner. Maybe a series of interlocking currency boards would be a good idea, though, since all the countries face similar pressures.

  31. Bill,

    Don’t get me wrong. Simply because I linked to the article does not mean that I agree with the proposal! I simply thought that it was interesting to witness a “Unionist” in another context ;)

  32. This may have been discussed before?

    The recent Referendum vote again shows a division within the Conservative Party on a point of principle that doesn’t seem to have a parallel in the other major parties.

    However, sensible political parties don’t split because they need cohesion to overcome close rivals. Yet, if Scotland becomes independent and takes a large number of Labour MPs out of the Commons, the Conservatives will have an overwhelming majority. Will this remove the need for unity and trigger a ‘civil war’ between the pro-European and ant-European factions?

    Modern democratic nations seem to have a left-right spectrum of political parties. So, will there be a realignment of the right, with a divided Conservative Party – each part claiming to be carrying on the Tory tradition?

  33. SOCIAL LIBERAL and Andy C.
    Good Morning.

    The Northern Ireland parliament was abolished by the British PM, Edward Heath, in 1972, so it could not have done anything about marriages for homosexuals.

    Heath felt he had to abolish that Parliament when the majority party resisted other civil rights laws on voting etc. (thus he had fewer seats behind him after the Feb 74 Election).

    Now the liberty argument seems to be going further so that conscientious objectors on the judaeo-christian view of marriage are getting into trouble.

  34. @ Tinged
    So obviously what we can take from that, is that Labour need to be more like the Tories..
    ——————————–
    Aaargh! ;-)
    ——————————–
    But again, what Labour need to do, is be less liberal and more authoritarian and that will win them votes and not alienate their new-found voters. Or something
    ——————————–
    Okay, you are being sarcastic about winning a few wobbly Tories at the expense of losing loads of ex-Dems, right?
    8-)

  35. I find it astonishing that VC failed to pay VAT on time and has therefore been subjected to a penalty by HMRC.

    Surely, VC has a tax adviser who handles his tax affairs?

    It is incredible that VC could as secretary of state for the BIS department be unaware of his legal obligations.

    What message does this send to joe public and all taxpayers? Yet another MP being above the law?

  36. @ DANGANN

    “As Peter Hitchens once stated, nothing revives the Labour Party like a Tory government.”

    Mmmm-as is so often the case with Hitchens’ mad ranting, it’s not just mad , but wrong .

    What he should have said was “, nothing revives the Labour Party like UKIP” :-)

  37. Dangann

    Would you envisage UKIP entering coalition gov with the Cons, say, after the next GE?
    What would be the absolute essential term for such a coalition, were one viable/possible?

  38. @DUNGANN
    I said to Nigel Farage on my front drive, about a week before the last GE, “If you allow Labour back into office with your middle class BNP, you deserve to go to hell ”
    Imagine my relief when his subsequent plane crash, did not send him to hell. I then knew we would not get a further term of Labour. Your comment is utter nonsense, but the fact remains. If your hatred of Europe helps to install Miliband, Balls, Harman et al, very well done indeed.

  39. @mike n
    We are more likely to form a coalition with you lot Mike.

  40. An Italian GE looms in prospect.

    Like Greece ,their Politicians just don’t get it -& their voters won’t let them

    Italy needs to rollover 600 bn euros of state debt in the next three years-and their bond rates are already at 6%.

    What an appalling shambles the whole EU institutional & governmental structure is.

    Talk of new Treaties may be grist to DC’s argument with the rebels-but the idea that EU leaders could draft , agree & sign anything significant within the span of their electoral lifetimes is laughable.

  41. @Colin

    Of course you could say, “Nothing revives the three mainstream parties like an appearance by Nigel Farage on Question Time”! lol

  42. Roland

    You using the same arguments against ukip that labour has used against libdems ie don’t let the Tories in or in your case don’t let the reds in.

  43. CROSSBAT 11

    Missed it ( unscheduled stay in one of Mr Lansley’s establishments) -what did he say ?

  44. @COLIN
    Garibaldi is not a political hero of mine, but he was very much a general hero. However, did he really do anyone any favours in the long term ? I am sure the Italians, with there city states and regions, were far better placed to keep an eye on their chancer politicians and elected comedians, than the idea of government in any British, French, or modern day German sense.

  45. @ Colin

    I hope you’re on the mend.

    I was making a general, slightly tongue-in-cheek, remark about Farage. He hasn’t been on Question Time, as far as I know, in recent times, but he’s been a regular panellist over the years. When he does appear, he usually manages to upset quite a few people and my guess is that the more people who get to actually listen to his one-dimensional ramblings, the more people he alienates.

  46. @R I N
    The esteemed party you support agreed to form a full blown coalition government with us. The was no suggestion prior to the GE that such a thing would happen. Much has been made of that fact by Labour, we cannot full fill our manifesto neither can you. Compromise has been required on both sides. All this is very different to a one trick pony jumping on the Europe band wagon, in order to damage the ONE party that might just take us out of Europe one day, or at least change the terms of membership in a big way.
    The political views of the average UKIPer are hardly conducive to any alternatives to Conservatism.

  47. @colin

    I very much hope you are feeling well and on top form.
    We need all the best men to fight the good fight.

  48. @ CHOUENLAI

    Good points.

    The differences & divisions emerging out of this shambles just confirm what a pack of cards the whole thing is.

    Unless EZ moves to something resembling fiscal union/central financial governance …call it what you like-the attempts to resolve competitive & fiscal imbalances with one monetary policy by a gang of politicians with irreconcilable domestic agendas will descend into ever more empty rhetoric.

    Someone mentioned a Nordic economic bloc upthread-I’m beginning to wonder if non EZ countries like Sweden & Poland might start to coallesce with UK in some way.

    The Chinese must be chewing their chopsticks-they don’t have voters to worry about ( as AD observed in his truly excellent book ) :-)

  49. Crossbat11 & Chou.

    THanks :-)

  50. @ Mike N

    You are assuming that UKIP would win seats at the next GE, whereas I am not sure that even with 7% they would win any.

    Even in the very unlikely event of them taking any seats, I think coalition would be about as likely as, say, Sylvia Hermon allying with the Tories while an independent even after leaving the UUP in order to avoid such an alliance

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