The Guardian has some ICM figures on Europe out, very much in line with what we’ve already seen elsewhere. 70% of people would like a referendum on EU membership, asked how they would vote, 49% say they would vote to leave, 40% would stay in. The poll appears to have had voting intention as well, but so far the Guardian hasn’t published the voting intention figures. There is also a ComRes poll for ITV, which also finds 68% in support of a referendum on EU membership.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, so right back to the typical Labour leads of four points or so.

110 Responses to “ICM Europe poll and YouGov/Sun – 36/40/9”

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  1. @Chouenlai, true enough. And the welcome is much appreciated.

    @Statgeek, unfortunately I am afraid the FT is probably right. In my opinion, Salmond is the cleverest high-level politician in Britain today (and I’m far from an SNP supporter). Unfortunately he has one policy he can focus on- independence- whereas DC et al have plenty of other things to deal with- economic crises for example.

    Back to the EU vote, I was slightly surprised to see Caroline Lucas on the list of ‘Ayes’. Are the Greens turning UKIPish or is this a long hidden policy that I never noticed?

  2. I have been predicting a falling off of support for the Tories. I think my first post on this thread said “oh well, it ain’t so bad”. However, on reflection, with this particular pollster, ICM, it is a reverse. Intriguingly, YOU GOV, whilst similar numbers to ICM, is a small improvement for the Tories, from a few weeks ago, change of modus operandi I guess.

    The question which one cannot help asking, is, when every poster from Mike N, for instance, to myself, agree that the economy is paramount, both in the eye of the public and in fact, why are the poll results, as they are?
    Labour 4 point lead in VI. Cameron/Osborn 11 point lead over Miliband/Balls.


    “Come, come. Are you REALLY suggesting that the calculation is quite as simple as that? Are you really saying that, had it been outside the UK, the Scottish economy would have run precisely as it did inside the UK, but just with £19billion less debt accumulated to pay for by-passes in South Yorkshire?”

    Of course, I’m not saying that. I’m simply pointing out the inanity of the propaganda department called the Scotland Office. I have used only the figures that they have published.

    In so doing, they have nicely demonstrated that the “union dividend” is increased debt.

    An independent Scotland wouldn’t have been paying out our per capita share of the existing Trident programme (around £3.2bn) or the illegal Iraq war (around £0.8bn).

    So the economic cost to us of staying in the UK Union is even greater than the Scotland Office has admitted.


    She wanted a referendum on the basis that she believes the result would be to remain in the EU. To legitimise the arrangement, if you like.

  5. Stanley


    “And Mike N, Gove is not wrong, in my opinion, to say that the Conservatives are united. They are, just being in coalition means that just 81-97 of them voted with their feet/hearts, and the rest with their heads.”

    I would be interested to hear how you believe the Cons are united on Europe.

    Are they all in favour?
    Are they all against?
    Do all want to leave the EU?
    Do all want to renegotiate membership?
    Do all want to reduce the social and employment aspects of EU law?
    Do all want a referendum on membership?

  6. @Mike N
    They are almost all against- the exception being Ken Clarke. And yes, they all (again, except KC) want to renegotiate membership and reduce the social and employment aspects of EU law. The part that they clash in is the time frame. Cameron wants to sort out the economic mess first (which I hardly need mention is not his fault), whereas Nuttall and co want to do everything on Europe now.

    Oh, yes, and there is this coalition government with a pro-EU party which means that the Tories can’t do everything the way they want.

    Or that’s how I see things anyway.

  7. oldnat & Billy Bob

    “Not fit for purpose” seems the best description.”

    With Independence we solve that problem at a stroke.

    Why is the SNP missing out the best argument for independence? With independence we get a fit for purpose parliament as a free offer.

    I once saw a man bid an apparently high price for a violin, but he had recognised that the bow in the case was worth far more than the violin and several times what he paid.

  8. Stanley,

    A coalition with a pro-EU party that, oddly enough, was more keen on an EU referendum than the Tories leading up to 2010. But why would the mere fact that we have two parties, one of whom promised a referendum on the current EU treaty and the other who promised a referendum on the EU per se (essentiall the same thing), both in government with a majority, mean that we would actually see a party carry out a promise with respect to Europe?

  9. oldnat @ SoCalliberal

    “You must have misunderstood my comments. That MPs can’t work out how to press a button isn’t a reason for Scottish Independence.

    That they are content to be incompetent isn’t even a reason.”

    Of course it is!

    It’s the most compelling reason and far more important than anything the SNP have to say.

    Would you say the same of your doctor or electrician?

    It’s not the incompetence but the contentment that’s the problem. But for that they could do something about it.


    “So, actually quite efficient and also in-keeping with tradition and the listed status of the building.”

    The chamber is not designed for purpose. It is designed for Cantori and Decani and does not promote the free expression of opinion or co-operation.

    When the architects of the Scottish Parliament ignored the requirements of the brief in this regard, they were rightly told to think again.

    The chamber is part of the problem. It should be turned into a museum.

    The Queen does tradition and ceremony. I’m content to leave that to her.

    She has had more training over a longer period than needed for any profession, and career experience longer than nearly everybody else in the country. It would be remarkable if she couldn’t do it well after all that, and indeed she is generally agreed to be competent.

    Leave it to a specialist.

  10. Oldnat @ LEFTYLAMPTON

    “An independent Scotland wouldn’t have been paying out our per capita share of the existing Trident programme (around £3.2bn) or the illegal Iraq war (around £0.8bn).”

    Do you mean we can have four Iraq’s for the price of Trident?

    Great! Who can we pick on!

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