YouGov’s voting intention figures last night had topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%. Slightly higher than the Labour leads of four points or so since conference (especially given the methodology change), but not to the extent that it couldn’t be normal random variation within the margin of error. Full tabs are here.

After the fall of the Gadaffi regime the government did seem to get a bit of a poll boost – though it could equally be explained through the government’s response to the riots or just a few weeks without bad news (thus is the way with voting intention polls – we can make guesses as to the reasons for ups and downs based on the correlation with events, but we can never prove any of them). We’ll see if the same happens with Gadaffi’s death, though personally I expect any positive effect from the UK’s intervention in Libya is already “factored into the price”.


169 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 41, LD10”

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  1. @ Anthony

    I agree; all my experience is that Councils go to great lengths to accomodate the rights/ needs of travellers & ex-travellers, especially families with children.
    8-)

  2. The Sheep and Welsh Borderer,We have come a long way from the point I was trying to make,but I am very
    impressed with your knowledge of Ancient Greek history.
    I also thought that was an odd comment from Neil ,in fact
    I could not even understand it!

  3. I believe that between them Anthony and AMBERSTAR have settled this matter, and shown that at least some of the claims of unfairness are not totally sound.

    However, I think there is an issue associated with £18million. Normally a council will demolish illegally built property if the owner refuses to, and I believe they then charge the owner for the cost. I don’t understand why the law has resulted in this excessive cost;

  4. Henry

    Traveller seems to be a catch all phrase, I have known gypsies who have their own unique culture and tinkers who originally came from Ireland and other folk who just wanted a nomadic life. I suppose they are all travelers. I myself spend three years living in a van traveling round doing oddjobs and selling things on the street but that was in north America. So I can understand the attractions of such a life and how difficult it can be with the authorities. But I don’t know the particulars of the dale farm case, are they real travellers? I suppose if that is how they want to define themselves then they must be. As always truth is in the eye of the beholder or something like that.

  5. Has anyone here been grapepicking in France. The season starts in the south and rolls north and eventually to the German border. There are many groups of young people who follow the harvest moving on from one ripe crop to the next. Migrant workers are quite important until everything is mechanized. I think the hops in Kent are harvested by machine now but before family’s from London would travel down to Kent for a working holiday.

  6. I’m having trouble finding “twonk” in my dictionary is there any chance that it has been misspelled

  7. I do have to repeat myself… That this was not, despite use of the phrase by the authorities, in any legal sense an Eviction. These were not tenants or squatters being evicted at the requirement of the land owner.

    This was a clearance of people from their residences and destruction of buildings.

    Use of the word ‘Eviction’ is phrased to make people assume that they were legally removed from someone else’s property. As evidenced in this forum by inaccurate assumptions being used.

    I strongly suggest that had the wording “Do you support the clearance of the residents of Dale Farm, from the land they collectively own, due to inability to receive planning permission to build homes on the site?” been used, the figure polled would have been substantially different.

  8. Also, the site was *not* zoned as a farm. It was zoned and had previously been used as a *scrapyard*, and was *not* a greenbelt site.

  9. @ Jay Blanc

    Also, the site was *not* zoned as a farm. It was zoned and had previously been used as a *scrapyard*, and was *not* a greenbelt site.
    ————————
    Then why didn’t they apply for planning permission?

  10. @Amberstar

    To quote the government’s Communities and Local Government department report on this from December 2007 –
    “The site has a long and contentious planning history. Temporary permission was granted by the Secretary of State in 2005 with the intention that this would give the site residents and the local authority time to find a suitable alternative site. However, no such progress has been made, and the local authority has now received a homelessness application for the 400 people who claim that eviction from the site will leave them homeless. At the same time, opposition amongst parts of the settled community towards site residents has become ever fiercer, with parents from the settled community withdrawing their children from the school attended by children from Dale Farm”

    Temporary planning permission had been granted with the intent that the local authority work with the Dale Farm residents to either make the site appropriate, or to find a more appropriate site.

    The local government did neither, and persisted in their view that they could simply proceed with refusing permission, and clearing the site by force. Which they have now done.

  11. @richard in norway – “… are they real travellers?”

    Most were living in caravans (some static caravans… ‘building’ a pitch involves structures for sewerage etc, also “In 2008, Essex County Council’s Racial Equality Council funded a £12,000 community centre at the site, built without planning permission”), probably they would like to travel more… but how can they do that if there is under-provision of sites? It is not the same as being on holiday and just booking into nearest campsite when it gets dark.

    Dale Farm has been an unofficial scrapyard since the ’60s.

    “Basildon council regularly brought waste tarmac and rubble from roadworks and dumped it on Dale Farm for a period of 10 years until the 1990s.” (The council disputes this.)

    The self proclaimed “anti-traveller activist” who owns adjoining land was awarded retrospective permission for his illegal dwelling (the greenbelt designation has been bypassed for a number of corporates/developers/residents in the area).

    Nationally councils are 20,000 pitches short of their legal duties. This figure leaves out pitches for the estimated 50% of the Traveller, Roma and Gypsy population who are living against their will in bricks and mortar accommodation.
    18 per cent of Gypsies and Travellers were homeless in 2003 compared to 0.6 per cent of the wider population.
    The Conservative government are now attempting to abolish the Regional Spatial Strategies.

    There are concerns that police and bailiffs have gone beyond the law in their actions on the site… and from the perspective of the people who lived and brought up their children there:

    “The only premeditated violence has come from the police – they knew exactly what they were doing when they started beating and tazering people. This is not how a community should be treated by its own Council. It’s illegal for us to travel, but illegal for us to settle down here. We’re getting hit by the police but we’ve got nowhere else to go.”

  12. The money spent on this process does clarify the intent of the council for me…

    The council chose between spending aproximately £1mil to £2mil on creating a new traveller’s site for the residents of Dale farm; and spending £14mil on clearing and leveling the site and moving them on to be someone else’s problem.

    I defy anyone here to explain to me why they would choose to spend more on being antagonistic to the Travelers instead of spending less to come to a mutual solution… If it was not the sole intent to prevent Travelers from residing in the area at all.

  13. @RiN

    You said “…I’m having trouble finding “twonk” in my dictionary is there any chance that it has been misspelled…”

    I have explained how the IMF works to Eoin, painstakingly led Amber thru the cost of the bailout and the housing market 1997-2011, and explained to you and others which courts redress the expropriation of assets by governments without compensation. This took much reading and cross-checking.

    But, to my eternal shame, I didn’t even have to google the origin of “twonk”. It took me under 30 seconds on YouTube to find the RedDwarf episode in question, and you can find it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVupRsbx8UM

    It’s *much* funnier if you say it in a Brummie accent… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  14. RiN &Martin

    From the Urban dictionary.

    “TWONK ”

    Derogitary term, roughly equivalent to idiot. More insulting than berk, but less insulting that gimp.
    Thought to originate in the Victorian Era meaning a lower-class foreigner

  15. @Tsitsikamma

    “Thought to originate in the Victorian Era meaning a lower-class foreigner”

    Ah, so Fabio Capello is a twonk, then.

  16. Usual weekend narrowing of YG. 36/38

  17. Dems remain on 10; approval back to -25

  18. The Urban Dictionary is written by the users, so I’m not sure the “Thought to originate in the Victorian Era meaning a lower-class foreigner” bit is accurate.

    I also need to point out that the Urban Dictionary line “You twonks, why didn’t you use the laser cannon on the Esperanto?” is also a quote from the Red Dwarf episode.

    Regards, Martyn

  19. AMBERSTAR.
    Good morning from Bournemouth, Windy on the beach.

    A 2 point lead again then for the ‘People’s Party’

    I thought the coverage for Cameron and Osborne seemed fairly impressive over the last couple of days.

    At the risk of committing mortal sin for UKPR, I wonder whether Tony Blair’s lead was more than 15% ahead after being Labour;s leader in October 1995?

    Half Term is here

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