Meanwhile the Sun politics team have tweeted their YouGov poll for tonight, which has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%. This poll was conducted on Sunday and Monday, and in contrast to the Populus poll in the Times shows no meaningful change since the Fox resignation at all.

While we are here, I should note some minor tweaks to the YouGov methodology. First, on party ID YouGov are now weighting SNP & Plaid separately from the other “others”. The actual targets that party ID is weighted to are all unchanged, but weighting the SNP in with the others was producing too few SNP identifiers in the Scottish sub-sample. Secondly, the weighting targets for newspapers have been updated, to better reflect current National Readership Survey figures. The combined effect of these two changes on the voting intention figures is to marginally reduce Labour support – on the old weights these figures would have been CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%. This is pretty typical – on average the new weights have Labour 0.8 of a percentage point lower.

UPDATE: Many thanks to FrankG in the comments below, who has spotted an error in my Scottish notional figures. I’ve corrected the error and uploaded fresh figures. The corrected figures now have the new Galloway & Carrick as a notionally Conservative seat, rather than a Labour seat. Hence the overall projected change for Scotland becomes Conservatives unchanged, Labour down 4, Lib Dems down 3 and SNP unchanged.

Notional results for Provisional English & Scottish Boundaries (excel) (csv)


589 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 37, LAB 40, LDEM 9”

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  1. Socal Liberal

    “Where Cameron looks bad is that he went out and gave a statement of strong support for Fox and keeping him in the Cabinet. Then, Fox resigned a few days later without any new facts coming to like. It makes Cameron look either weak and indecisive, poll-obsessed, or clueless as to what goes on in his Cabinet.”

    It’s an arcane Westminster ritual.

    Somebody posted that DC was about to make a statement saying he had full confidence in Dr Fox, and predicted that Dr Fox would be gone in a week, and it was so.

    This event does not show whether he is or is not “weak and indecisive, poll-obsessed, or clueless as to what goes on in his Cabinet.”

    He may be all or none of these things, but the ritual statement does not prove it.

    It’s just another tradition of an out of date, corrupt, and sclerotic parliament full of drunks, fornicators and fraudsters. The English are proud of their parliamentary traditions.

    We don’t understand your quaint old fashioned customs like executions, letting people have guns etc. either.

  2. @ Roger Mexico

    “As far as closeted Right-wing politicians go, there does seem to be a difference between the US and Britain (I’m not even going to start on the Isle of Man). In America those politicians and preachers caught in compromising situations are often those who have been the most virulently anti-gay, thus adding greatly to the general amusement. Despite our reputation, closeted Brits tended to be less hypocritical and usually pro- or at least neutral on gay law reform. That said the political pressure would have been less here. If Fox turned out to be gay, he would be unusual because of his past anti-gay opinions.”

    Well I mean, it seems to me that like these days, some right wing politician virulently homophobic politician or leading figure in Anita Bryant’s grand movement gets outed like every other week. And sometimes in really comical ways that are far below the standard of classy Brits. Without googling it or searching on yahoo, I can think of the following ultra right wing politicians or political leaders who’ve been outed:

    -David Dreier (R-CA), Larry Craig (R-ID), Carl Kruger (D-NY) (he was outed when the FBI unsealed a federal indictment against him and his partner and showed up at their home with search warrant in hand), Steve Gunderson (R-WI), Jim Kolbe (R-AZ), Ken Melhman (former head of the RNC), Roy Cohn, J. Edgar Hoover, James West (R-WA), Mark Hatfield (R-OR), and of course (who could forget) Roy Ashburn (R-CA).

    Ashburn had the most comical outing ever. I mean he was a vocal champion of legal bigotry and a leading critic of gay people. He was outed after being pulled over after leaving a gay nightclub for a DUI. He was WAY over the legal limit, driving a state licensed vehicle he wasn’t authorized to drive, and his evening hookup was in the passenger’s seat. And there are scores more (I think some Indiana state legislator was outed a few weeks ago after charging his rentboy to the credit card).

    This is why I am a fan of David Laws though perhaps from what you say, he’s unexceptional among British MPs.

    Some of this stuff is comical. Some of it isn’t though, especially when it’s family feuds where you have a straight elected official launching a major anti-gay push and their own kid is gay. Like former California State Senator Pete Knight who sponsored Prop 22, who’s son is gay. When he died in 2004, he and his son had not been on speaking terms for many years despite his son’s repeated attempts to reconcile. In those cases, behind cheering throngs of Republicans at rallies, there’s a family dispute playing out in public, which probably only exacerbates the pain and hurt for the ostracized child and puts the family’s dysfunction in public light.

    I remember one of the leading advocates in the 1998 Hawaii referendum on same-sex marriage to prohibit same-sex marriage had a daughter who was a lesbian. This woman used this fact to push for her position even though I don’t think they had any normal relationship with each other. I can’t imagine what that poor daughter felt.

    “The ‘beard’ certainly wasn’t unknown in British politics in the past, though the more usual term would have been ‘marriage of convenience’ (well Brits are classier). Conservatives in particular would have expected their (male) MP to be married and the wife to be a sort of unpaid constituency worker. Indeed the wife or fiancee was expected to turn up at selection meetings for inspection (of course some ‘fiancees’ were never seen again). This has all pretty much vanished, though only in the last 20 years.”

    Brits are definitely classier but that’s kind of bizarre. Did Labour or the Lib Dems have anything similar? I would have imagined that the image of the Conservative MP housewife would be a Stepford wife who was the elegant home maker.

    When I think about marriages of convenience, I look at Jim McGreevey (D-NJ), the former governor of New Jersey. It was pretty clear that he knew he was gay when he married his wife. I thought she must have been in on it when he had his big press conference in 2003 and she was standing by him with this big grin on it. From their marital routine, he may also have thought she was in on it though as it turns out, she wasn’t (though maybe she should have been since apparently she consented to her husband bringing other men into the bedroom with them). I’m no expert but when your marital spouse wants to bring someone else into the bedroom (regardless of gender), I think it’s time to re-evaluate your relationship.

    Having heard this woman speak in public, I have come to the conclusion that Dina Matos-McGreevey is a very nice woman who unfortunately has less going on upstairs than most yams. Apparently, after the whole incident, she didn’t know what to do or who to turn to so she called up Hillary Clinton for advice. I can’t imagine how painful it was for Hillary Clinton to deal with this woman (I just imagine the hour long phonecalls with this woman crying on one end and Hillary trying to do work and rollying her eyes on the other end). I always thought Hillary deserved to be president just for being so nice to her and having to put up with this.

    “Macmillan’s marital problems were well known, though of course never reported in those more deferential days. As well as her long affaire with Bob Boothby, she was also known to be an habitual drunk. Once a horrified aide asked Macmillan “What would you say if people saw Lady Dorothy in that condition?”. “I would say”, said Macmillan will his usual tone of infinite weariness, “That you should have seen her mother”.”

    Lol, that’s really funny. Tragic. But still funny.

  3. @ John B Dick

    “Supermac couldn’t leave his wife according to the conventions of his class and people of his status at the time.

    Being divorced was something that would bar you from an invitation to the palace.Since then Mrs Queen has had lots of divorce in her own family to put up with as well as having to welcome people living in sin.

    Royalty does move with the times,or rather in step with the rest of the country and Commomwealth, but a careful 20 years behind. They move forward when nobody’s looking.”

    Maybe Prince Charles has more courage than he’s given the credit for since deciding to get a divorce. I’m sorry that Supermac couldn’t leave his wife due to societal conventions. I couldn’t imagine how unhappy he must have been.

    Usually it’s women who won’t leave their cheating male spouses. But Supermac reverses that stereotype. Of course it’s not neccesarily a sign of a weakness. Some people accept that their spouses will philander and enjoy the marriages for other reasons. Both FDR and Eleanor carried on extramarital affairs with other women throughout their marriage. In fact when FDR died, he was with his mistress.

  4. @ John B Dick

    “It’s an arcane Westminster ritual.

    Somebody posted that DC was about to make a statement saying he had full confidence in Dr Fox, and predicted that Dr Fox would be gone in a week, and it was so.

    This event does not show whether he is or is not “weak and indecisive, poll-obsessed, or clueless as to what goes on in his Cabinet.”

    He may be all or none of these things, but the ritual statement does not prove it.

    It’s just another tradition of an out of date, corrupt, and sclerotic parliament full of drunks, fornicators and fraudsters. The English are proud of their parliamentary traditions.

    We don’t understand your quaint old fashioned customs like executions, letting people have guns etc. either.”

    Well, where to begin. I think if you say “I have full confidence in so and so,” and then you fire him a few hours or days later, it doesn’t look good, regardless of what system you’re in. Also, I’m sure that there are a lot of dated things about the Westminster Parliament (and it is the Westminster one as it’s not just the English one, well not yet) but there also probably a lot of good things. Not all traditions are bad either. Just remember that tradition is a living thing.

    Now as for some of our quaint old fashioned customs (lol), death penalty is one thing but gun ownership is different.

    From a practical standpoint, there’s the knowledge that it’s far more expensive to hand down the death penalty than not giving it. There’s the knowledge that we have executed people who turned out to be innocent and had innocents on death row prior to exoneration. As Valerie points out, if you make a mistake with the death penalty, there’s no way to reverse it. There are also racial and gender disparities with its use which arguably call for it to be gotten rid of. Also, our use of the death penalty seems to put us in league with every backwards two-bit dictatorship on the planet. There are many who argue for the death penalty to be abolished.

    But gun ownership is a different story. I’m not a fan of guns and frankly, I have a hard time understanding people who seem to view their ownership of a gun as a barometer of their individual manhood. That’s as crazy as cheering on an execution. I don’t like guns myself but I don’t see a problem with responsible gun ownership provided that we don’t have criminals outgunning police officers and don’t let guns into the hands of crazy people.

    People own guns and use guns for all sorts of non-nefarious purposes including some of my own family members. People own guns for the purpose of self-defense. People own guns for the purposes of hunting. People own guns for the purpose of collecting them. People own guns for the purposes of shooting as a sporting activity. For example, people often enjoy going to shooting ranges just for the enjoyment of the act of shooting. It’s often used by people to relieve stress after a long work week or and as an extracurricular activity in camp. I mean in summer camp as a kid (which I hated btw), we had a whole host of activities for us to participate in including shooting and ice cream making.

    Maybe it is quaint and old-fashioned but I don’t see what’s so hard to understand about it. If the death penalty were abolished, I likely wouldn’t lose much sleep over that (I might even be secretly happy). If you took away everyone’s guns on the other hand, you would be hurting a whole lot of people.

  5. SOCIAL LIBERAL

    Good Morning, I woke up early, since being nervous, again, over Wales playing in a couple of hours, for third place. Not bad for a tiny nation, numerically.
    (Subsequent analysis of the match shows the referee was very lenient on Wales- may have regretted his sending off decision)

    On SuperMac, yes, he lived in agony over his wife. I am not sure if he knew about the Krays’ connections to Boothby.
    Many great stories on Macmillan.
    ‘May I have that translated please’ – when Khruschev was banging his shoe- is one of them- at the UN.
    He nearly became a Labour MP in 1939, but war intervened. Mr Attlee was in talks with him.
    Like many of us, Macmilan never forgave the inter war Coalition Government’s policies on deflation at a time of recession/slump.
    But some historians are less kind about his role, and Churchill’s in hunting down the Cossacks and other groups who Stalin demanded should be returned to the USSR. Tolstoy’s son has written bitterly about Yalta in 1945.
    A great Tory he was.
    And a brilliant political operator.
    And all those homes he made sure were built for people who were relatively poor.
    Mrs Thatcher had no time for him.

  6. @ Chris Lane

    “Good Morning, I woke up early, since being nervous, again, over Wales playing in a couple of hours, for third place. Not bad for a tiny nation, numerically.
    (Subsequent analysis of the match shows the referee was very lenient on Wales- may have regretted his sending off decision)”

    Go Wales. I hope they win and win big. It may not be the championship but winning third is pretty good.

    As for Supermac, I noticed he’s one of the few Prime Ministers who won his seat from an opposition party. That may explain some of his popularity.

    I forgot MacMillan was the one who made that quip at Kruschev after he slammed his shoe down on the table.

    When people are critical of western actions at Yalta, they’re a little unfair. We didn’t control any of the territory given away to Stalin. We were lucky to have gotten West Berlin.

    I’m sorry Thatcher didn’t like MacMillan.

  7. SOCIAL LIBERAL
    Thanks for supporting Wales!

    On Yalta, I think, sadly, that FDR and Churchill were too ill, and were taken in by Stalin. USA and GB decided not to race to Berlin, and to leave eastern Europe to the Red Army. Eisenhower wanted to get there before the Red Army. I believe that Vice President Truman did also.
    You may know about the awful scenes at London Victoria train station when men were sent back to Stalin.

    Mrs Thatcher believed that Harold Macmillan was too ‘soft’ on economics and on the working classes.

    He also famously told off the retiring Archbishop of Canterbury, (Fisher) who told Harold that he was Michael Ramsay’s housemaster, and therefore he should not be the new Archbishop of Canterbury.

    Macmillan: ‘Yes, Bishop Fisher, but you were not MY Housemaster’ Macmillan- a good Eton boy.

  8. On Wales, Mining and Rugby and Politics.

    You Tube’s Max Boyce: His Song; ‘Duw it’s hard’

    A sad story.

    I remember .

    And will never forget,

  9. This vote on an EU referendum is looking increaingly difficult for DC.

    The Grauniad carries this:

    “David Cameron is bracing himself for the biggest rebellion since he took office, with possible frontbench resignations, when Tory MPs defy No 10 to vote in favour of a referendum on Britain’s EU membership on Monday.

    “As ministers and their aides lined up to tell the chief whip, Patrick McLoughlin, that Downing Street had badly mishandled the debate, No 10 sources indicated that Cameron has abandoned attempts to agree a compromise.”

    Depending on what DC does and how this ‘storm’ plays out, there cold more desertion of Con supporters to say UKIP. On the other hand, we might see drift back of UKIP supporters to the Cons.

    But overall joe public dislikes a party that is riven with some internal conflict.

  10. SOCALLIB:

    Morning…

    Whilst I’m way of issues of the moment I can’t resist observing that a relationship where one party is a serial philanderer isn’t necessarily an unhappy one…people love one another for all sorts of complex reasons….

    ….and don’t let guns into the hands of crazy people….

    once guns are generally available its the crazy people who always get their hands on them first….I love America lots but the right to bear arms which made sense in an age before we has police…has never struck me as an inalienable human right….I’m Irish, through my family I know lots about bearings arms and armed causes….ours isn’t a happy history!

    Have a good day one and all….

    Oh, am I correct to read the polls as perhaps showing a gentle widening of the Labour lead?

    AIso does anyone know if there any state polling in the USA yet with regard to the presidential election?

    I’m off to Bath….back later…

  11. John Murphy

    The right to bear arms is actually the right to overthrow the govt if it becomes a tyranny. I agree it seems silly but it made sense to the founding fathers who had fought a war with arms that they had no legal right to own, the British having outlawed the possession of arms

  12. @ Richard in Norway:

    Yes I agree…yes it’s borrowed from the militia acts and the common law rights owned in England and entrenched after the Glorious Revolution….

    But then we had no effective police-force and the right to bear arms made sense or how could you muster on behalf of the crown or parliament….

  13. John

    Yet another of yesterday’s burning issues. The political battles over having a standing army were huge but today its self evident that we should have a standing army. I wonder which of today’s burning issues will be consigned to the dustbin of history

  14. I don’t understand.

    If lots of Tories vote for a referendum but it gets defeated by Lab and LD, why should it bother DC? It is still thrown out.

  15. Fomr the Grauniad:

    “It’s up to Cameron to lead from the front and squash this [EU referendum] distraction. Or sooner or later, the financial markets will wake up to the suspicion that he is not up to the job.”

  16. The libdems should vote in favour, its party policy and it would put pressure on DC

  17. Surely that’s all cod, Mike N.

    yeah it doesn’t help to have the anti-Euro nuts excited, but it is only an issue if the Government starts to averreact.

    Let the vote happen and let people vote what they want. It’ll lose.

  18. Nick Poole
    “Let the vote happen and let people vote what they want. It’ll lose.”

    When you ‘vote’, do you mean the HoC vote or a vote IN a referendum?

    I don’t see DC wanting a referendum.

  19. Socal Liberal

    “Also, our use of the death penalty seems to put us in league with every backwards two-bit dictatorship on the planet.”

    Quite so. You don’t need any other reason to realise it is time to review the reassons.

    Over a hundred years ago before it became anything more han a hopeless cause, the minister of the Unitarian church in Glasgow got what we would now call a formal written warning for absenting himself to speak at a campaign meeting in Aberdeen.

    So radical opinion in Aberdeen was maybe 200 years of where America is now.

  20. “Is it time for a UKPR sweep on the number of days from today that the (by now pretty irrelevant) daily Libya question survives in YouGov polls? 14 is my guess.”

    Can I enter?

  21. A wells

    I don’t think so you could have insider info

  22. Socal Liberal

    “People own guns for the purpose of self-defense.”

    Yes, we have drug dealers and gangsters too, but they don’t mind it being illegal to own guns.

    The people who own guns because they ” view their ownership of a gun as a barometer of their individual manhood” would actually get MORE satisfaction from them being illegal.

  23. Mike N

    Yeah by people I meant MPs (I suppose they are still people?). I don’t mind a referendum, but I think that horse bolted a long time ago. Leaving would be a disaster.

  24. RiN – not necessarily, I may not have decided yet!

  25. @ Anthony Wells

    Re my query on the 18/19 Oct YouGov poll weightings, where I spotted a 100 error between the published weightings totals of 1629 for each category and the totals of 1729 used in each sample for the polls. Did you ever get my posting and were the discrepancies ever sorted.

  26. Nick Poole
    “Leaving would be a disaster.”

    I agree.

    I guess that from DC’s point of view he sees this vote as narrowing his options and scope for manouver (I’m sure there should be a second e somewhere in there).

    And does he really want the EU membership issue blowing up and raising quesrtiosn about his leadership. I doubt it.

    But it will all blow over.

  27. CHRISLANE

    “And all those homes he made sure were built for people who were relatively poor.”

    The Conservatives actually boasted that they built more council houses than Labour. At the time I thought it a bit cheeky, because some must have been in the pipeline, planned by the previous administration.

    “Mrs Thatcher had no time for him.”

    I apologise for thinking ill of him at the time. He kept together a disparate collection of every sort of non-socialists and oddballs, seemingly without effort. The Conservative party, especially in Scotland, never had it so good.

    America, Russia, Britain, France, Yugoslavia, all had governments led by old men. I thought then that it was time they all moved on.

    Now that I am in their age range, I think it was preferable to the heirs to Blair.

    Am I just an old git who hasn’t moved with the times, or have I acquired wisdom with age?

  28. John B Dick,
    I am a socialist and would far prefer to have had Macmillan in power than Blair post 1997.. I have not voted Labour at a General Election since 1992.

  29. RiN

    “I wonder which of today’s burning issues will be consigned to the dustbin of history”

    The £?

    Surely in the long run three currencies will have regional exclusivity, become tied and then unitied.

    Capital punishment, homophobia, religion, abortion circumcision, equality for women

  30. Mike N @ Nick Poole

    “And does he really want the EU membership issue blowing up and raising question about his leadership?”

    If he wins, as he would, it shows he is a “Strong Leader”. Even the euronuts like getting beaten, though they prefer a female dominatrix.

    It’s the single sex public school.

  31. Graham @ John B Dick,

    “I am a socialist and would far prefer to have had Macmillan in power than Blair post 1997.. I have not voted Labour at a General Election since 1992.”

    My entire analysis of Scottish politics rests on the premise that there are a very large number of people who are in your position, certainly they are a larger group than those who vote LibDem for positive reasons, and may be larger than the positive vote for any single party.

    You may speak for the majority in Scotland, or very nearly so.

    That could mean a market opportunity for Murdo’s NewScons, had not the SNP got there first.

    You could do a lot worse than having Mary Scanlon in charge of the NHS (though nobody could be better than Nicola Sturgeon).

  32. John B Dick

    “It’s the single sex public school.”

    Lol

    ‘Single sex’ being either or both same gender and/or sex by themselves,I assume you meant?

    Moving on quickly….

  33. Mike N @ John B Dick

    Moving on quickly….

    to Socal Liberal’s catalogue of outed homophobes.

    If I was instinctively homophobic, I would certainly keep it to myself. Some homophobes are so because they are uncertain about their own orientation, so they reassure themselves by convincing others that they are hetrosexual. Sometimes that gives way later to feelings they had suppressed.

    Homophobia is self-evidently illogical. The more males that opt out of the competition for women, the greater is the number of females available for the others.

    The true hetrosexual should welcome homosexual men, as should women, for a spare male hunter who doesn’t need to feed his own children can help hunt food for his nephews, neices and younger siblings, and so increase the chance of the mother’s genes surviving into future generations.

    So same sex marraige is fine, but it shouldn’t attract the married couples tax allowance.

  34. John B Dick
    Er, thanks.

    Can’t fault or disagree with your observations/comments.

    I was amused however by “hetrosexual” and imagine some kind of combination of retro and hetero…

  35. John B Dick,
    I take your point re Scotland. I am very clear in my mind that Macmillan – and all Tory PMs 1951 – 1964 – was far to the left of Blair and also Brown. Ted Heath described himself as too left wing for New Labour.
    It surely must follow that those present day Tories who strongly criticize the 97 – 2010 Govt should be even more critical of those earlier Tory Governments!

  36. John B Dick/ Graham

    ““I am a socialist and would far prefer to have had Macmillan in power than Blair post 1997.. I have not voted Labour at a General Election since 1992.”

    My entire analysis of Scottish politics rests on the premise that there are a very large number of people who are in your position, certainly they are a larger group than those who vote LibDem for positive reasons, and may be larger than the positive vote for any single party.”

    The idea that there are a huge number of ”sowwcialists’ out there (whether in Scotland or anywhere in the UK) just waiting for an appropriate home is one of the funnier suggestions I have see on here in a very long time.

    It certainly ranks alongside ‘Labour lost the election of 2010 because they weren’t left wing enough’ comicbook postings :D

  37. Rob Sheffield,
    ‘The idea that there are a huge number of ”sowwcialists’ out there (whether in Scotland or anywhere in the UK) just waiting for an appropriate home is one of the funnier suggestions I have see on here in a very long time.

    It certainly ranks alongside ‘Labour lost the election of 2010 because they weren’t left wing enough’ comicbook postings :’

    Labour lost the 2010 election because of the economy – even though -ironically enough -in its last 18 months it tarted to break free of the Thatcherite neoliberal consensus with a Keynesian policy response to the international economic crisis. Until late 2008 the Blair /Brown Govts were effectively paralysed by their adherence to the Thatcherite neoliberal agenda..It felt like a right wing Tory Govt – and to all intents and purposes that is precisely what it was in everything bar name.Macmillan and Heath were far more progressive .

  38. ROB SHEFFIELD @ John B Dick/ Graham

    I said that “My entire analysis of Scottish politics rests on the premise that there are a very large number of people who are in your position”

    I did not mean to imply that all of those with the same voting pattern necessarily described themselves as “socialists” though some may

    “The idea that there are a huge number of ”sowwcialists’ out there (whether in Scotland or anywhere in the UK) just waiting for an appropriate home is one of the funnier suggestions I have see on here in a very long time.”

    There are in Scotland where the centre is far to the left of NewLabour.

    In 2011 they found an appropriate home for the time being.

    You won’t be laughing so much after independence.

  39. @ John B Dick

    Really, the SNP a socialist party? I dont think so. It cant even consider it self centre-left either – if reducing corporation tax is one of the first things it wants to do.

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