The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 37%(-1), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 14%. Changes are from the last online ComRes poll in mid-September. No significant change there from conference season (or the Liam Fox kerfuffle, though the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday).

The rest of the poll is the normal Independent fare of agree/disagree statements. The most interesting ones are probably those that are trends. ComRes asked if people agreed with the statement “Scotland should be an independent country”, and found people pretty evenly divided, 39% agreeing, 38% disagreeing.

The ComRes press release, which John Rentoul largely echoes here, says “Scottish independence, now backed by majorities in both Scotland and the rest of the UK”. This is somewhat over-egging the pudding, given the overall UK split is so close, the Scottish sub-sample is only 146 people so shouldn’t be given much weight, and if you take out Scottish respondents from the poll, the “rest of the UK (sic)” don’t actually seen to have a plurality in favour of Scottish independence – it is even stevens! Still, what is notable is the rise in support since the last time ComRes asked it in May 2011, when people disagreed with the statement by 42% to 33%.


103 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 37, LAB 39, LD 10”

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  1. I can’t be bothered to be first, ill post later when the thread is mature

  2. The poll results for Scottish independence mustr be the first time that the whole of the UK is in favour.

  3. RinN

    Lib Dems first and second. I hope this an omen

  4. I suspect that the reason that support for independence in the rUK is rising is at least partly because folk are answering a different question

    The researchers are asking if “Scotland should be an independent country”

    But the respondents are answering the question ” will Scotland be independent”

  5. Henry

    3rd 4th and 5th as well

  6. Since it mentions Scots’ Independence, I’ll add some other interesting points from the Scots’ section of the poll. Keeping things simple, like/yes for + and dislike/no for –

    Cameron -29

    Miliband -27

    Clegg -46

    (I would have liked to have seen a Salmond one for this.)

    Independence: +12

    Economy (DC & GO): -33

    Economy (EM & EB): -45

    Labour Childcare: -7

    Gov Childcare: -33

    Women bearing brunt: -7

    Same sex marriage: +21

    DC is sexist: -6

    Womens’ pension age rise wrong: +24

  7. @ Statgeek

    That’s the views of just 146 people; now, what does the rest of Scotland think? ;-)

  8. @ Anthony,

    Keep flying the Scottish flag over the ComRes results & the Tories will think they’ve had quite the resurgence in Scotland at only 2 points behind Labour; & no sign of the SNP. :-)

  9. @ Iceman – (apologies to the rest for giving reply to question on last topic), but it does have relevance given Amberstar’s post above.)

    Thank you for your thoughts. Unfortunately I do not think you can just write-off Con in Scotland in 2015 quite so readily. You seem to have assumed that the SNP successes in the Holyrood GE2011 will be completely replicated in any GE2015. If they are, then Lab are really in serious trouble.

    The Scotland cross-checks in YouGov recent polls, whilst not being completely reliable as evidence (as AW would always advise!), do not seem to show that decrease in Con. Given that the number of participant from the Scotland region( unweighted) is only just 200+, anything more than a firm indication is probably wishful thinking.

    Of the 8 YouGov polls from 29/30 Sep to the most recent 12/13 Oct:
    Con lowest level in Scotland Region is 16, highest 22 (twice) average 19.25.
    SNP lowest is 25, highest 37, average 29.9.

    Your view that Con is 1-2% below its GE2010 level of 16.7% is not borne out by the polling evidence. Similarly SNP is nowhere near its Holyrood GE2011 level.

    Unless you have some more compelling evidence that your personal opinion, then I remain unconvinced that my assessment is at fault.

    Until we can get some proper Scottish regional polling evidence, I think it is more prudent to assume a ‘smallish’ decrease for Lab, no change for Con, large decrease for LD and a ‘largish’ increase for SNP.

  10. @Amber

    “That’s the views of just 146 people; now, what does the rest of Scotland think? ”

    The rest of Scotland was in Alicante watching the football team play Spain!

    More seriously, I can’t believe that we’re even discussing the views of a sample of 146 people with any semblance of a straight face. Anthony will comment more scientifically, no doubt, but 146 people isn’t a statistically viable sample in opinion polling terms and falls very firmly into voodoo territory.

    Any sign of tonight’s YouGov yet?

  11. Sigh. Margin of Error on a sample of 146 is +/- 8. That’s without any extra error introduced because Scotland is not weighted separately.

    Also I suspect the question that the rUK are really answering is “Do you think the Scots should be allowed to be independent is they want to?”.

  12. @ Amber Star

    “That’s the views of just 146 people; now, what does the rest of Scotland think?”

    I think 146 is too small to be an accurate representation.

    @ Statgeek

    “DC is sexist: -6”

    It might not be a representative sample but I’m surprised there are that many who think Cameron is a sexist. I mean, he may be a lot of things but he never struck me as sexist.

  13. Roger

    “Do you think the Scots should be allowed to be independent is they want to?”.

    OldNat will be on in a minute breathing fire!!

  14. Anthong

    Standard caveat for Statgeek & AKMD please.

    They see meaning in Scottish Crossbreaks and in particular a rise in Con support an “half a dozen” MP’s.

    Crossbreaks tell us nothing and certainly not that an almost unrelieved decline of over half a century has reversed.

    Keying these words I can say I know how it feels. I have had an unrelieved decline for over half a century myself, and was 72 yesterday. I know I’m not going to be around much longer.

    At least those that care about me are not (yet!) talking about euthanasia as Murdo Fraser is for the SCons.

    Six seats in 2015 and Murdo would be seen as a visionary leader. Six seats after independence is a modest aim.

  15. RiN

    Oldnat is just in from a pleasant family dinner.

    Far too full of the milk (I was driving :-( ) of human kindness to breath fire.

  16. The Scots can be independent if they want, but only on the basis that any oil related revenues are shared with England, N.Ireland and Wales. Perhaps the Scots share should be based on their population size prior to any separation.

  17. R huckle

    I think the Scots would say that we have had our share already and p*ssed it up against the wall.

  18. R Huckle

    And the revenues from the City of London should doubtless be equally shared?

  19. Anthony

    FrankG @ Iceman on the previous thread also need the standard crossbreak caveat reminder.

    Frank G says

    “The Scotland cross-checks in YouGov recent polls, whilst not being completely reliable as evidence (as AW would always advise!), do not seem to show that decrease in Con. Given that the number of participant from the Scotland region( unweighted) is only just 200+, anything more than a firm indication is probably wishful thinking.”

    It isn’t even a firm indicaton. The decline between 2010 and 2015 will be less than 2% and that could never show up till the day itself, and the range in recent polls Frank G quotes is three times that.

  20. statgeek

    Clegg -46?

    So they had quite a few ex-LibDem voters then. I’d love to hear what Tavish Scott thinks of him.

  21. “oldnat

    R Huckle

    And the revenues from the City of London should doubtless be equally shared?”

    No, but you can share any of their losses. e.g Royal Bank of Scotland.

  22. Look like the Sunday Time YG poll is out >>>>>>>>>>>

    Lab 42%, Tories 39% LD 8% Approval -25%

    So the Tory vote is up following the problem with Liam Fox.

  23. Con 39%, Lab 42% Ld 8%

    That would be for the “Fox kerfuflle”, pre-demise phase.

    No opportunity has been lost, however, to remind us what a terrific job he has done to mend the “black hole” Labour left in MOD finances.

    The report into his conduct as minister is expected to be “critical” or “highly critical”.

  24. Bizarre – no matter whether Blue or Red have a bad time, the polls hardly move.

    Have the electorate been secretly lobotomised? ;)

  25. This is always the standard response, but outlier?
    Obviously we’ll see on monday, but it does seem a bit of an odd one.

    Will be a shame for the LibDems if it sticks though. Moving from being on 9 for an age to 8 could lead to further drops.
    And if UKIP starts to pull support from the Tories, we could see a new third party.

  26. @ Old Nat

    And the revenues from the City of London should doubtless be equally shared?
    ————————-
    Ah, a rare venture into British (English) matters. It must have been a good dinner, you are branching out. :-)

  27. Not surprised that the donors who funded Mr Werrity’s trips around the world are not happy, if the Telegraph article is accurate.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8829655/Fox-affair-donors-fury-over-lies.html

  28. Referendum outcome prices – Paddy Power

    Against independence (Fail) 4/7
    For independence (Pass) 5/4

  29. @SOCALLIBERAL

    The -6 is disagreement with the statement (is Cameron sexist).

    @Others

    Lots of people keep picking on the crossbreaks, but if there’s nothing else, what can anyone do? Every Scottish crossbreak I mention someone (usually someone who doesn’t like what they see) highlights them. When the polling isn’t against what they see, they remain silent. :)

    As it’s all we have to go on, they seem to be more accurate than supposition, and until the polling people decide to use larger sample sizes, there’s little we can do.

    Hence why I use 5,15,30 and 60 poll averages now. It gives a slight idea of what’s going on.

    Even the raw data gives a trend (and while I agree there’s a large mardin of error, the polls are right some of the the time):

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/5/60day.png/

  30. The reality is that Salmond is the only political leader with a positive rating and indeed the only real political leader around at present.

    Small wonder then with these unpopular parties and laders launching a daily assault on independence that it becomes ever more popular.

    No-one should underate Salmond’s ability to pull this off.

  31. Is It possible that some Ukipers rallied to the Tory cause while Fox was hanging on?

    The full debacle over his affairs may only be beginning.

  32. Stuart

    Won’t there be three possible outcomes

    Independence
    Greater autonomy
    Status quo

  33. Polls are like buses. None for ages then 2 arrive at once but neither is going in the right direction.
    8-)

  34. Scottish sub-sample:

    Westminster VI – Scotland
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 33% (+13)
    Con 22% (+5)
    LD 8% (-11)
    UKIP 4% (+3)
    Grn 1% (n/c)
    BNP 0 (n/c)
    oth 0

    In other words, support for independence is still far stronger than support for the SNP. This has been a consistent feature of Scottish polling over many decades.

  35. Rikard i Norge,

    Tell Paddy Power that. Nothin to do with me! ;)

  36. YG and CR within m.o.e despite three partyconferences and a ‘be-hounded’ Fox.

    Can we call it polldrums ?!

  37. I think it’s just a case of MOE. Expect 4-6% again in the next few Yougov polls.

  38. According to my calculations the winner of ‘Guess the YouGov- Sunday Times Poll’ is Tinged Fringe, closely followed R Huckle, and I think Nick P and Henry came third (the story of my life)

    However, as no one guessed correctly the prize is carried over until next week.

  39. Amber

    You might say that British = English. I couldn’t possibly comment. :-)

  40. For those interested in what the week’s events tell us about the internal power dynamic, Garry Gibbon sees Osborne’s fingerprints everywhere:

    h
    ttp://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/who-told-fox-his-time-was-up/16932

  41. @ Old Nat

    London = English, to the SNP, no? :-)

  42. Where are the you gov tables, I want to see if there was an increase in don’t knows/won’t votes, maybe I can claim Henry’s prize

  43. Tinged Fringe
    This is always the standard response, but outlier?
    Obviously we’ll see on monday, but it does seem a bit of an odd one.

    Interesting viewpoint from someone who came so close in predicting the poll correctly.

    I shall pay particular heed to your comments in future.

  44. @ Billy Bob,

    The Telegraph is reporting that Fox didn’t fall on his sword for noble reasons… allegedly he’s angered some major Tory donors by soliciting donations which were used to fund Werrity’s lifestyle.

    The donors were promised anonimity; having been ‘outed’ they are saying they do not like it, that their money has been spent on Werrity. What they have utterly failed to make clear is: What did they believe their money would be used for?
    8-)

  45. @Amberstar

    “The donors were promised anonimity; having been ‘outed’ they are saying they do not like it, that their money has been spent on Werrity. What they have utterly failed to make clear is: What did they believe their money would be used for?”

    Indeed – Moulton is the example par excellence. Very interesting bloke- did a fascinating presentation to the Treasury SC on CDS/ CDO/ derivatives et al at the height of the crunch. Very informative.

    But a rather sinister character- sort of makes me think of a far right version of Mandelson: charismatic but sinister. (IMHO).

    But his name has been all over the media the last two days due to being outed as a back seat donor by the Fox affair.

    From what I read of it its quite straightforward: he gave donations to Fox to use however Fox wanted as they were both of the same perspective on a number of major issues.

    But he does not like the bad media/ bad press: who needs friends (and donors ) like that ?!

  46. The Pm remains unscathed.

    Politics of Sport.

    Wish we had a scottish referee, rather than an irish-frenchman!

    gutted son of a welshman i am still

  47. RiN

    Three possible outcomes is distinctly possible. That has been signalled for some time as something which the Scottish Government is happy to explore.

    What would be mildly interesting would be to know the views of those in England (primarily) to Scotland having Full Fiscal Autonomy (as opposed to the views of those so ignorant that they aren’t even aware of the effect of the Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Order 1999, and its relationship to the international maritime boundary – which is based [as most of you know] on the principle of the median line, that every point is equidistant from the nearest points on the coastlines from each of the two states measured, whether they are bordering, or opposite).

  48. “Henry

    Guess the YouGov- Sunday Times Poll’

    However, as no one guessed correctly the prize is carried over until next week.”

    When I guessed that the Tories would not lose ground due to the recent problems, I did not take into account some of the LD VI moving to the Tories. Only joking, but I can see no reason for the Tories vote increasing, other than people like some of the right wing policy direction.

  49. Chris Lane 1945
    ‘Wish we had a scottish referee, rather than an irish-frenchman!
    gutted son of a welshman i am still’

    Played a great game, but should have converted the try and won.

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