Today the Scottish Boundary Commission have published their provisional recommendations for the new Westminster boundaries, available on their website here. Scotland will lose 7 MPs as part of the reduction from 650 to 600 members of Parliament.

The FT have a rough and ready attempt at working out the impact here, currently just assuming party support is evenly distributed within each seat. On that basis, the Conservatives lose their seat, the Lib Dems lose 3 and Labour lose 3. Of course, as the FT themselves are the first to admit, that’s a very crude analysis, but it will probably take me a while to crunch the figures for better notional projections, given the number of wards currently split between constituencies.


554 Responses to “Provisional Scottish boundaries”

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  1. Colin

    I heard figures on the radio that there were 16 sellers for every buyer in the housing market at the moment, if that true then house prices should be crashing or the laws of supply and demand are wrong

    Actually the the law of supply and demand is badly written, it should read “when it is known that supply outstrips demand then prices will fall” there are other problems with the law of supply and demand but I won’t go into them now

    I know that the data compiled by the American estate agent association are misleading(its actually called something else but I translated to English) I would expect the British figures to be equally misleading if they are compiled by a group that has an interest in higher prices

    Sometimes what everyone knows is wrong, therefore I ask for evidence. Rising prices are not evidence of lack of supply at best they are evidence of a perception of lack of supply. The market does not act rationally without accurate information

  2. Richard

    “Sometimes what everyone knows is wrong, therefore I ask for evidence”

    I just love the world of conspiracy you inhabit-is it a Norwegian thing?

    We can both access stats & studies on UK’s housing market over the last decade.

  3. Colin

    What conspiracy theory. Businesses act in their own self interest is a conspiracy theory? Statistics produced by special interest groups are often unreliable is a conspiracy theory?

  4. Richard

    Just back from skateboarding/grandson duty so briefly :-

    re “I heard figures on the radio that there were 16 sellers for every buyer in the housing market at the moment, if that true then house prices should be crashing or the laws of supply and demand are wrong”

    This is I am afraid far too simplistic.

    A huge North South divide has opened in UK house prices-and its growing.

    Since the pre recession bubble peak, prices in the North are still down on that point-in fact they are back to 2005 levels. Sellers are reducing prices by 2.6%

    In the South prices are nearly 20% above the pre recession peak-& rising at 4.7% pa.

    House prices are, of course a function of cost as well as demand-like any commodity. In the case of housing , cost is a function of the mortgage market.

    And this has done a U turn.

    Prior to the Credit Crash, LTV of 100% + was available-this drove the price bubble-and we know the result of that.
    Now UK mortgages are cheaper than ever in terms of interest rates, but lenders have put up the sutters on risk. LTV have plummetted. 40% **deposits for the best rates are not unusual .

    It is this which inhibits buying -particularly where cash is tight & the economy struggling-ie THe North. Where cash is more plentiful & economic activity greater-higher deposits are not such a bar.

    House prices react accordingly.

    The average age of a first-time buyer who has not benefitted from financial help is now 37. Young people are staying with parents for longer.

    Are all those stay at home 36 year olds a sign that “demand” for houses has declined?-or is it a sign that where higher deposits cannot be raised, house purchase is being delayed?

    ** I was reading that , in Germany , where renting is more prevalent than buying, 60% LTV is the norm-which just demonstrates what predatory , feckless lenders , and comatose regulators did to this country in the years up to 2007…..not to mention a grateful, Treasury hell bent on Tax & Spend policies.

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