Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topine figures of CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%. The four point lead is well within the margin of error of the six point Labour lead YouGov have been showing of late, so it is far too early to suggest any sort of conference boost for the Tories. If there is any conference effect, we would expect it to show up after Cameron’s speech, so watch for the figures tomorrow night and in the Sunday Times.


532 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 37, LAB 41, LDEM 9”

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  1. So reading this day’s comments, it seems that all the bad things Labour ‘done’ the other lot would have done too. All the good things Labour ‘done’, the other lot wouldn’t have done.

    Nothing else to add really. I’ll wait for another thread title to pop up.

  2. OLD NAT,
    I thought that someone would pick up the anachronistic non pc language of headmaster and headmistress.

    I dont know where to find the smiley face icon.

  3. Nick P

    Following on from my previous post, I remember when we bought our first home, in the late Wilson years.

    My wife was a teacher and so we were allowed to stay in rented accomodation for a period at very reasonable charges; this meant we were able to save a deposit.

    It was with a bank that did not lend for homes and no building society would lend us money as we had not saved with them. I was miffed but in retrospect this seems very sensible. They lent only to trusted members.

    However, I was also a ratepayer and so we got a mortgage with the local Council; very good use of their money, and on which they got a decent return.

    Property was cheaper then, but interests rates were higher. Wilson’s govt did not mind giving us tax relief on the interest thus helping us in the most difficult times.

    People tell me times were not so good for the ordinary person in those days; well I felt pretty ordinary and Govts really helped hard working families with aspirations like us while regulating banks and building societies.

    O happy days!

  4. StatGeek,
    Not all the bad things!
    Possibly no 42 day detention. None of the broken health targets. Not as many of the mistakes in education (although the system would be vastly different).

  5. STATGEEK.
    Well, the Conservatives did vote against all Labour’s measures which I listed.

    But maybe that is why Dizzy said:
    Her Majesty’s Opposition’s duty is to oppose’

    As to the ‘bad things’ which Labour did, I am one of those who thinks the second Iraq war was necessary. The post war planning was a disaster. And I think Blair should have sacked the over spending, out of control, rude and uncommunicative chancellor, which was a major failure of leadership, as Rawnsley book, END OF THE PARTY shows

  6. @ StatGeek

    …it seems that all the bad things Labour ‘done’ the other lot would have done too. All the good things Labour ‘done’, the other lot wouldn’t have done.
    ——————————————–

    That’s absolutely right, I couldn’t have put it better myself. :-)

    I will, however, add: Those of us who criticise Tony Blair believe we could’ve got even more good things done & chosen to do less of the bad things which the other lot would’ve done. We are a political Party not a leadership cult; our leaders get our loyalty when they deserve it & may have to live with a few boos when they don’t.

    How could the Labour Party cheer a leader who now works for JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs or whichever bank it is?
    8-)

  7. Of course it’s all rose tinted, since half the items on the ‘Labour lists’ weren’t started by Labour, some wrecked the economy, and other than a couple the rest are just annoying the electorate.

  8. Chukka Umunna very impressive in his BBC interview…Has already coined a new phrase`Jobs,Jobs,Jobs`…But can he match the wily Vince…we shall wait and see

  9. Can we we please move on from Bliar and talk about Labours lost Leader John Smith. I liked him. He had conviction. I recommend Francis Becketts book the Prime Ministers who never were. The John Smith passage is one of the best. Has any body read it?

  10. Any body reading my post I am so verry sorry. I called Blair “Bliar”. It was a typo not a slur and I retract any slur that I might have caused. I think I will proof read my posts next.

    So very very sorry. :(

  11. Amber

    Jp Morton 5 million a year I believe, tony was in Libya just before the revolt chasing up business for JP

  12. Chrislane

    1880 was the last time a one term tory government was replaced by a full term non-tory government. Ed is no Gladstone, i am afraid!
    And Camron is no Disraeli

  13. @Chrislane1945 – “John Smith would not have won in 1997 with a decent majority.”

    If you look at Mori for June 1992 (Neil Kinnock) :
    Con 42%, Lab 39%.
    July 1992 (John Smith):
    Con 39%, Lab 43%.

    April 1994 Mori: Con 27%, Lab 47%.
    The Tories recieved their worst defeat for 30 years in the local elections on May 5th (one week before Smith’s death).

    April 1997 Mori (Tony Blair): Con 29%, Lab 47%

    Blair had enjoyed larger poll leads earlier in the parliament, but at the expense of the LDs.

  14. @KYLE DOWNING
    “Perhaps Ed M is the new Ramsey Mac”. If only, if Ed M had awoken in a bothy, with the smell of hot cow manure in his nostrils and the ache of hunger in his belly, one could stand some of the Labour nonsense rather better.

  15. CHRISLANE1945

    I had a row with Eoin on his site about his use of the term Headmaster.

    You, I can forgive – probably unreconstructable. :-)

    For anyone campaigning on gender related issues, however, it’s an unforgivable error!

    More seriously, I’m simply surprised that people in England and Northern Ireland still use such archaic language.

  16. If only, if Ed M had awoken in a bothy, with the smell of hot cow manure in his nostrils and the ache of hunger in his belly, one could stand some of the Labour nonsense rather better.
    ——————————————————————–

    Got it in one!
    Labours founding fathers were actually “Working Class” unlike some of the clowns in the party now. Back then Labour actually ment something to the working classes.
    Ramsey Macdonald was actually understood the needs of everyday people. What is Macdonalds reward? Exspulsion. His name assosiated with treason because he put contry before party.

    Lets just remember some of the honourable pit workers and steel workers who went on to become some of the first Labour MPs. Remember their honour, their integrity and their sense of juty.

    Then look at Ed Milliband. I know who was the better Labour leader. Don’t you?

  17. @old nat
    You are taking the micky ? How can a man of your intelligence object to Headmaster for a boy, and Headmistress for a girl. Why is Headteacher such a quantum leap forward ? This the kind of thing, that should I double my present age, 130, I will never ever subscribe to.

  18. @Old Nat

    I agree on “headteacher”, though Vanessa Redgrave prefers “actress” to “actor”.

    Not sure how to refer to Sean Connery… Bahamian? :)

  19. Chou,

    Perhaps it’s simply because most teachers in school are called “teacher” these days rather than “master” or “mistress”?

  20. It’s now come out that Adam Werritty’s right-wing “Atlantic Bridge” US/UK lobby group was run out of the (tax payer funded) parliamentary offices of Liam Fox. It was even registered as the official address for US lobby group registration.

    It is hard to see how Liam Fox will now be allowed to keep an investigation internal to the MoD. Or even survive in his position. Perhaps he will be able to use “But the parliamentary ethics standards didn’t explicitly say you couldn’t run a lobby group from your own offices, so nothing I did was against the rules”.

  21. @ SMUKESH
    `Jobs,Jobs,Jobs`…”

    That’s the second line of the song that starts “Education, education, education”

  22. Chouenlai

    I would suggest that it is probably unwise to have a boy or a girl as Head Teacher.

    Honestly, they don’t have the experience needed to lead a team of teachers.

    Even the Madras system used boys and girls as instructors, only under the instruction of a teacher.

    However, I’m prepared to be amazed by whatever retrogressive steps the Government of England decide to take in education in that country.

  23. @ OLDNAT

    “More seriously, I’m simply surprised that people in England and Northern Ireland still use such archaic language.”

    I am amused-but not at all surprised-at the first two words in that sentence.

  24. @JAY BLANC
    Well done sleuth ! It was hard to see how Cameron could stay in power after Coulson resigned. Were you a vulture, or a hyena in a previous life ? What a good thing your new party has such a blameless record. Your moral high ground is somewhere on Hackney marshes.

  25. John Smith would not have won the 1997 election with as big a majority as Blair seat-wise because he would have struggled to have swept the board in England with Mondeo Man and Worcester Woman in the way Blair did….

    Blair was closer to my politics, aside from the Iraq shame, but Smith was a man of integrity and one of the most decent politicians I’ve seen in my lifetime. Labour would have won 97 either way, but if Smith had made it to fight the 97 election there’s no doubt that his time as PM thereafter would still be remembered with more fondness and respect than Blair’s…….

  26. Bluejock

    I agree with your assessment of John Smith. That he was leader was an important part of my joining the Labour Party.

    I didn’t last long there, once Dewar had delivered a Scottish Parliament!

  27. @ old nat
    Education you say, God man we have given up on that these 15 years. Now we publish results that convey a continuing improvement. The facts are unknown, but suspected to be very different. As for titles, well, distinguishing between the sex’s sorry, genders has been customary for sometime and as long as the Lord spares me, I wish it would remain so.

  28. @chouenlai

    Actually, I recall being highly skeptical of the rumors that DC was going to have to resign right away… (Of course, there are a string of court cases to come, so who knows what they will bring up…)

    However, Liam Fox’s position is clear. He lied to the press about the activities of his friend, who did accompany him to official meetings despite the denial. And who now is shown to have used Fox’s official parliamentary offices to run a US-UK lobby ‘charity’.

    I invite you to defend Fox and Werritty’s actions rather than casting aspersions on others. But as I said, I don’t really see a way that Fox can defend what’s been uncovered here.

    And certainly, it’s DC’s perogative to keep him on. Assuming that the parliamentary standards committee don’t take action. But if he did, that would just bring up so many more public questions about “Cameron’s Judgment” in selecting his staff. Fox has just become a huge liability for the Conservative party.

  29. jay blanc
    “Casting aspersions others” . Sorry Jay I just dreamt it.

  30. @ Henry

    “People are always be free with advice. I reckon one should always listen, and then go your own way.”

    Yeah, that’s basically how I am now. I listen to everyone but listening doesn’t mean blindly assuming one is right. Sometimes, people have legitimately good advice. :)

    “I remember filling out pages and pages of code to achieve the simplist operation. It has all changed now and I look to my kids for guidance in the Internet age.”

    I feel like I am a lot more technically gifted than I give myself the credit for but there’s a lot I can’t do or struggle with at the get go.

    @ Chris Lane

    “Good Morning and thanks for the comment on Blair.
    The ‘Life of Brian’ sketch on ‘What ever did they do for us?’ comes to mind.”

    You’re welcome. I always thought Life of Brian was very funny (though I saw it back in elementary school so maybe my tastes have changed). The only scene I really remember though is the end where they’re all on crucifixes singing “Always look on the bright side of death.”

  31. Chouenlai

    I have been happily enjoying the difference between the sexes for more than 50 years!

    However, my kids have enjoyed the benefits of having had (mostly) good teachers during their school careers.

    The teacher’s sex (a physical characteristic) was never important. Hence there was no need to characterise their description by gender (a linguistic term).

    I have never understood the obsession to link everything to sex, that you appear to have – perhaps you should watch a more varied set of films?

  32. Mr Milliband is a better party manager than a political communicator. It may prove to be a skill that will carry him much further than charisma. Atlee was good in that department too….and if a modest man to have much to be modest about it didn’t stop him going all the way….

    All of this turns on the world and the world one feels is about to turn upon the hand that has fed it the easy lies that leave us unleashed and we will bring home the bacon. The pigs have flown and the fairy tale is destined to end unhappily….the ratings agencies designed in the 1930s to prevent the repetition of the Great Depression are now colluding with their previous failures to ensure the financial crisis will turn into a catastrophe.

    The markets are intoxicated with both an immutable sense of self-belief and an impending sense of doom. Like a drug addict their mood swings will only make matters more unstable.

    Until the crash makes everyone realise the Emperor has no clothes, never had any clothes and therefore cannot lose his shirt… this stupid uncertainty will be a self-self-fulfilling reality .

    But come what may the world will somehow still go on…and once we’ve faced down the worst we’ll write it all off to experience, start over as if nothing happened and think we are all very clever…..

    I just hope we remember to remember those who will get most hurt in this in a real way are those who start off with little or nothing….and it’s to them we owe a duty of care. For that is in my opinion what we’ve lost sight of in a foolish rush from easy money to tight budgets….

    ….Those who like us all who have only a single life-time but whose one go at life has already been ruined by the needless greed of others and for whom now the needless selfishness of all of us who can spare a dime….will bring to the end of hope.

    We all really can do better than this…but we need to do it together…sometimes it’s better for us all to get through than debate the relative merits of each of us getting through….and that means putting up with putting our hands into our pockets. And the cant of the priests of markets needs to be set aside….their time will come again…for them paradise will only be postponed…and if that not good enough…then they must justify it to the decent majority who demand something of them now…

  33. ”@OLD NAT
    My children also have had the benefit of good teaching, in English schools, geographical luck/ability. However, how it matters that Miss Taylor is a Head Mistress or a head teacher, I am buggered if I know. Put it down to Saxon uncouthness.

  34. @john murphey
    You mention drug addicts, what are you on to have typed that epistle.

  35. Chouenlai

    You are still obsessed by sex!

    However, I hadn’t realised that it was those kind of films you watched!

  36. Interesting choice of new speech writer for Cameron in Julian Glover. (Not sure if it’s been posted about).
    Long time coalition apologist in the paper that shall not be named, while denying being one.

    He has argued in the past that the reason the Tories haven’t convinced the public is because they haven’t been totally honest.
    He argues that the ‘necessity’ arguement for cuts is nonsence and Tories *should* say it’s ideological but should argue that social democracy is dead and we should embrace small-state free-market liberalism.

    So a hint that Cameron is going to be open and call for a small state as an end and not just a temporary necessity?

  37. Where is Amber when she is needed?

    Curran appointed Shadow SoS for S, and immediately (along with Jamieson) comes out for Johann Lamont against Murphy’s candidate, Ken McIntosh.

    This has all the appearance of Miliband and Murphy fighting each other through surrogate candidates in Scotland.

    So reminiscent of the Cold War, with the USSR and the USA running surrogate proteges in a client state.

  38. @tingedfringe
    “So a hint that Cameron is going to be open and call for a small state as an end and not just a temporary necessity?”

    He did with that Big Society stuff – early on it was his big transformative mission if you recall. Didn’t really catch on. I for one would appreciate it if the Tories were a little more honest about their intentions though(i.e. turn us into a copy of the USA).

  39. @tingedfringe

    Cameron initially wanted to be a hands-off premier, but then came the loss of a polling advantage over Labour, along with concerns from LD ministers about Tory departmental chiefs embarking on a “Maoist revolution”, and then the sinking without trace for Cameron’s Big Society idea.

    The fact that he hadn’t really grasped the extent of what Landsley was pushing through prompted him to beef-up the policy unit at No 10… but a paucity of Tory talent meant that this had to be drawn from the ranks of the civil service and outsiders.

    Without Libya and the riots, he really would be floundering.

    Osborne is busy, Coulson gone, and there is continuing concern in Tory circles that the No 10 machine is not functioning well, or well connected with the party. Oliver is not a Tory, Cooper and Hilton are not mainstream, and now another Liberal Conservative (as he is being referred to) in the form of Glover.

    It is clear that Osborne intends the cuts to be permanent, also that Cameron is not the centre of gravity for his party… but he will be trying to regain the initiative somehow.

  40. Billy Bob

    ” Oliver is not a Tory, Cooper and Hilton are not mainstream, and now another Liberal Conservative (as he is being referred to) in the form of Glover.”

    The dissonance between politics in your part of the UK and mine, is that I don’t recognise the names of any of these people you mention – and I’m probably more aware of English politics than most Scots.

  41. @Old Nat

    Craig Oliver, the ex-BBC editor replacement for Coulson (Andrew Neil’s election-night Thames river-boat party?) Cooper imported at the same time (from Populus?) as pollster/focus grouper, and I’ll leave you to find out about Steve Hilton (he is a Cameron advisor of longstanding) for youself.

    A bit esoteric regardless of geography..

  42. @ Old Nat

    This has all the appearance of Miliband and Murphy fighting each other through surrogate candidates in Scotland.
    ——————————————————
    If only ’twere that exciting!

    It’s the women; they’re sticking together & – if anything – Ed probably thinks having a female leader for Scotland would be good for the Party & good for Scotland.

    Obviously, I’d prefer to have Sarah Boyack but she’s still saying that she’s not going to stand.
    :-)

  43. @ Billy Bob, Old Nat

    I know who all those characters are. It is about politics & has nowt to do with geography. :-)

  44. Billy Bob / Amber

    Thanks for the info on those names. My point wasn’t about geography, but about political spheres.

    Amber is Brit Labour (nothing wrong with that – people are allowed to hold their own political views) so will be deeply immersed in English politics.

    Amber

    This is simply sexual politics? Labour women will simply vote for Lamont , regardless of who else decides to stand?

    Perhaps I misunderstood you, when you agreed that SLAB won’t even define the rules, much less define the timetable for your leadership election until 29 October.

    So if other women decide to stand for leader, Curran/Jamieson won’t support them? Why? Aren’t they female enough?

    A little logic would be useful.

  45. richard in norway

    “I’m disturbed by john b dick’s advise to tophat. That he should move to Scotland before the ref so he can be an automatic citizen. Will it not be possible to move to Scotland after the referendum. Will there be strict immigration rules? And even if there are strict immigration rules they surely won’t apply to englishmen?”

    They certainly will when England leaves the EU.

  46. @ Old Nat

    A little logic would be useful.
    ———————————–
    It certainly would… but you’ll have to look elsewhere for it; you won’t find any in the Labour Scottish leadership contest.

    I do find it surprising that anybody is openly backing a particular candidate at this moment in time; they don’t even know what the job description will be yet – so how can they decide who is best placed to do it?

    I like Sarah, I like Ken; they are outward looking & willing to engage with people; I’m not so sure about Johann, I don’t know her so well, but she seems like a female version of Iain Gray.

    Personally, I like Iain but sadly, the voters did not… so why pick somebody with the same style because they have a different gender? It does, indeed, defy logic.
    8-)

  47. Amber

    Thanks for that.

    Iain Gray is actually a good guy (OK during an election I was happy to help crucify him!) Like John Swinney he would be a good Minister – but never a Leader (I still think John and the rest of the current Cabinet are more competent than Iain – but I am biased :-) )

  48. Ramsay Macdonald was a great man, who was persuaded to lead a Coalition Government which deepened the slump by a policy of deflatiing the economy and cutting welfare and government spending.

    Unlike the present Labour leadership, he had had a considerable life prior to becoming party leader.

    He was a wonderful speaker, had a firm belief system and was a brilliant organiser.

    A note on the much missed John Smith. His 1992 Shadow Budget was a big error, I think

  49. @ Old Nat

    “I had a row with Eoin on his site about his use of the term Headmaster.

    You, I can forgive – probably unreconstructable.

    For anyone campaigning on gender related issues, however, it’s an unforgivable error!”

    Really? I’ve never heard there was a dispute over this term. I would have used the term “headmaster” to refer to a male or female. Honestly.

    I think we get away from real issues of gender discrimination and lose sight of the true evils of gender discrimination when we overemphasize the importance of using or not using certain words with gender connotations. My general rule of thumb is to use a gender pronoun to describe those of both genders.

  50. @ Old Nat

    “The teacher’s sex (a physical characteristic) was never important. Hence there was no need to characterise their description by gender (a linguistic term).”

    I use the term “gender” instead of the term “sex” even if it’s a linguistic term. It’s just a cleaner term and not one subject to potential misinterpretation and it seems to be more commonly used these days. I think they’re generally interchangeable terms and I don’t think of any one as a preffered term but gender just fits better and works better. So I use gender.

    Oh and I agree btw. A teacher’s gender (or sex) is a factor that is largely irrelevant to their teaching ability.

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