Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%. Yesterday’s 2 point lead looks like it was just a blip, and the 6 point leads we’ve seen from YouGov lately are restored. Tomorrow will be the first chance to see if Ed Miliband’s speech has had any impact, though lots of the fieldwork will be done before people see the news tonight or the newspaper reaction tomorrow, so worth waiting until Thursday before drawing any conclusions.


509 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 37%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%”

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  1. @ Crossbat

    “And it will probably be consolidated further in later life as dotage approaches (either that or you will acquire a predilection for erotic spanking!!)”

    Lol. So naughty.

    @ Alec

    “Priceless news from the world of Islamic terrorism. Apparently Al Quaeda have asked the Iranian government to stop claiming the CIA was behind 11/9. It’s a real classic, with shades of the People’s Popular Front of Judea etc etc.”

    Lol. The People’s Popular Front of Judea…..lol. :)

    @ Old Nat

    “No. The Scotland Bill (which is a partial implementation of the Calman Commission) is going through the Lords at the moment, and doesn’t include that.

    Hence why I said it was an odd decision by the UK Government.”

    You’re right, that is kinda odd. Though maybe it makes sense in the mind of a unionist who envisions Scotland as part of the union but envisions Northern Ireland as eventually becoming independent. Maybe.

  2. Statgeek

    If weight was a factor, neither Jackie Baillie nor Alex Salmond would have been elected. Fortunately most people don’t make political decisions on that basis (do any?)

  3. @ Andy C

    “My family is a real mixture. It starts with my Granddad on my dad’s side who was a right-wing Tory which was rather controversial at the time because he came from a working-class background at a time it was seen as almost tradition for the working-class vote Labour. Hints why my dad called him a working-class Tory. My grandmother was a Liberal as she was disillusioned from both Labour and Tory but was a staunch “anti-socialist” at the time Labour was seen as a socialist party.

    His three children all ended up spiltting from different ideological directions which was ironic considering that they learnt their morality and values from my granddad. My dad ended up being a staunch socialist/communist in his early youth and at one time tried to influence the Labour Party to be more left-wing. Has time has gone by he’s shifted to the right but still calls himself a socialist and left-wing. My aunt ended up being a Liberal; the kind that is socially liberal very controversial in my granddad’s eye because he was a social conservative i.e. anti-abortion, pro-family/marriage, anti-multiculturalism etc. My aunt is also economically to the centre-left often thinking the rich should pay more tax while rejecting my dad’s socialist views. Ironically my aunt married into a Conservative whose moderate on social issues but economically right-wing but has respect for Tony Blair. My uncle ended up being a Tory but a more moderate one on social issues but aggressively free-market on the economy.

    My mum’s side is rather consistent. Both her parents were brought up Labour voters but would flirt Liberal when it look likes Labour could not deliver on keeping the economy at float or were seen as too radical while still calling themselves Labour “at heart”. My mum voted Labour until the late 70?s when she thought Labour was “penalising her in securing a better job position” because she was offered a promotion but would have paid I believe 70% tax which she thought was just regressive and undervaluing hard work. So she voted Tory in the 79? election but felt she made a mistake because she thought she was too aggressive on the free-market etc. so she voted Liberal and did not convince herself to vote Labour until 97? when Labour had ditched it’s socialist label. My aunt, however, is a proud Daily Mail Tory.

    So I have been use to observing and absorbing different political opinions and ideologies which makes up for interesting dinner conversations (I say not, more like arguments) but still I felt like I’ve had a good childhood when talking political issues being able to see many different opinions.”

    My immediate family is fairly uniform politically, mildly liberal (or center-left) though we differ on certain policies/laws. But their parents and families were ideologically mixed. My dad’s dad was basically a socialist who would vote for socialist candidates (when they were on the ballot) or third parties. He’d occassionally cross over to vote for a Democrat. My dad’s mom was a right wing Republican who thought Nixon was the greatest president ever (and was framed for Watergate). Though despite her solid Republicanism, she was firmly pro-choice. And I think she did vote for Harry Truman and JFK (she also occassionally voted for Democrats at a local level but in those races, the candidates were both Democrats).

    My mom’s dad was a Republican but definitely more in the old school, pro-business, anti-hippy way. And right before he died he renounced Dubya as one of the worst presidents ever. My mom’s mom was a little more complex and I think she was a swing voter. She was nominally a Democrat (she was a farm girl) but sometimes would vote for various Democratic candidates. I looked up some of her past donations when she was alive and they were to both Democratic and Republican candidates.

    My dad’s Republican registration wasn’t really out of a conservative political bent. He registered as a Republican so that he could vote against Richard Nixon in the 1972 Republican Primary and vote for his more liberal opponent, Pete McCloskey (R-CA).

  4. @ Statgeek

    “I can’t say weight is a massive (ha ha!) factor for me, but I can see how some would use the well fed shape as a way to suggest they live well, but their voters do not.

    Do a google for John Prescott and Peter Tapsell and see what you think of the fuller figured UK politician. Sometimes the personality makes your mind up, and sometimes peoples’ opinions are settled based on their favoured party.

    Also see:

    Cyril Smith (definitely a candidate for biggest loser).”

    I’ve seen John Prescott and he’s a big fat guy, but he’s not morbidly obese. Tapsell I saw once in a PMQs and he seemed big and fat but again, not morbidly obese.

    Now Cyril Smith, he was huge and probably was morbidly obese. Of course no one mentioned Smith as Prime Minister material.

    Now some have noted that in the U.S., a lot of the “obesity epidemic” has been created and falsified by health insurance companies looking to raise rates. They’ve come up with weight standards that ensure far more people will be “obese” and don’t take into account muscle fat. But, even putting aside some of their shenanigans, there’s definitely an issue with obesity. An elected official who is morbidly obese is not setting a good example.

  5. @ Old Nat

    “If weight was a factor, neither Jackie Baillie nor Alex Salmond would have been elected. Fortunately most people don’t make political decisions on that basis (do any?)”

    Don’t know what Jackie Baillie looks like. Alex Salmond isn’t that fat. He’s not going to be posing for Playgirl or Sports Illustrated any time soon. But he’s not morbidly obese.

    I don’t think I’ve made any political decisions based on a candidate’s weight or physical condition.

  6. SoCalLiberal

    “I don’t think I’ve made any political decisions based on a candidate’s weight or physical condition.”

    I always liked that “West Wing” episode where the voters elected a Democrat, even though he was actually dead (if I remember the story line correctly).

  7. @ Statgeek

    I’ve been thinking about it. I think the biggest difference between Americans and Brits politically is how we view our elected officials. You Brits hate your politicians and treat them with contempt and scorn. They’re simply servants of the Queen who are far too self-important and act as if they run the show.

    Americans claim to hate politicians too but we’re all lying because secretly we love our politicians. We love them, we admire them, we adore them, and we worship them. We put them on our currency. We name our schools, public buildings, educational institutes, metro stations, freeways, cities, streets, squares, and even a state after them. We devote public holidays to them. We celebrate our politicians taking office in lavish inauguration celebrations (the biggest one is obviously the president’s but not the only one). We lionize our politicians too and leave it to the historians to remember the faults and that’s not just the founding fathers but more recent ones too (Harvey Milk is a great example).

    It doesn’t stop there though and it permeates through our daily life. Rotary Clubs love it when they can get a Congressman or a City Councilman or a County Supervisor to come speak at one of their lunches (even if they prohibit partisan discussions). People are thrilled to take their schoolchildren to ribbon cuttings by politicians. People will line up for hours just to meet politicians on the stump. Politically minded college students all want Congressional internships and people look positively at them on resumes (even though, for the most part, Congressional interns don’t do all that much). The ultimate in politician worship is the Inaugural Ball where people shell out massive gobs of money (both for the ticket and for the outfit they wear) just so they can get a glimpse of the President dance for a few minutes.

    It’s not surprising that the only two British Prime Ministers of the past 100 years who the average American would be likely to recognize, Winston Churchill and Tony Blair, are far more liked and respected by Americans than they were by their own electorates.

    Anyway, I point all this out because I think that politicians are often role models for the community, not just political leaders. A political leader who is morbidly obese might make people think that being morbidly obese is okay or even desireable. That’s not something I would want and it’s not something I think is desireable overall.

    (And this isn’t to suggest that discriminating against those who are overweight is ever acceptable, it’s not.)

  8. @ Old Nat

    “I always liked that “West Wing” episode where the voters elected a Democrat, even though he was actually dead (if I remember the story line correctly).”

    If you can believe it, I’m not a West Wing fan. I’ve never even seen the show (which some people think is crazy).

    But that actually did happen once in real life. In the 2000, Missouri Senate race, John Ashcroft (R-MO) was defeated for reelection by Mel Carnahan (D-MO) who had died a week or two before the election. He won though and his wife was appointed to take the seat by the Governor. As for Ashcroft, it really couldn’t have happened to anyone more deserving.

    I’m trying to think of other times where that happenned.

  9. SoCalLiberal

    We treat politicians appropriately as well.

    The statue of the Duke of Wellington in Glasgow is honoured and has been so for many years.

    http://lyndseymatthews.wordpress.com/2007/11/14/coned-the-duke-of-wellington-statue-in-glasgow/

    Apparently, it’s on the Rough Guide’s (?) list of 1,000 things that everyone has to see before they die.

  10. @ Old Nat

    The wikipedia article on Carnahan (he was quite a guy btw, his wife was a great Senator) mentioned that Jenny Oropeza (D-Long Beach) had won reelection to the California State Senate in 2010 even though she had died. I liked Oropeza and her death was totally unexpected.

    I think in 2006, a Democrat in New Hampshire defeated an incumbent Republican even though the Democrat had died prior to the election. I’m sure this happenned a few times.

  11. @ Old Nat

    “The statue of the Duke of Wellington in Glasgow is honoured and has been so for many years.

    http://lyndseymatthews.wordpress.com/2007/11/14/coned-the-duke-of-wellington-statue-in-glasgow/

    Apparently, it’s on the Rough Guide’s (?) list of 1,000 things that everyone has to see before they die.”

    Wait, didn’t Scots not like the Duke of Wellington? If so, it kinda would explain the traffic cones placed on him.

    As for 1000 things I should do before I die, it might be something to go and see.

    Here’s another example in the difference of treatment of politicians. Whenever a politician comes to blog at Daily Kos, no matter how disliked or seen as too conservative they are, their diaries will usually make it to the top of the reccomended list and people will show up to comment. Contrast that to Jim Murphy’s blog where his entries get almost no comments.

  12. The voting intention on you gov is very consistent. Low forties for Lab high thirties for Con.
    Conventional wisdom says that an election now would see a swing to the Tories and they would get the overall majority they want. But I’m not so sure.
    I think the voting intentions are absolutely clear! Far more likely to give Lab most seats. But if I’m wrong, why do Can not go for an election?
    I think we won’t see anything happen in that direction until the boundary changes are through. But the question remains…

    Can Lib Dem possibly vote for a reshuffle that gives them less seats for their vote than they get under the current one?

  13. Talk earlier in thread about Labour > BNP etc.
    Yougov did do polling on ‘fringe’ parties in the past –
    20-27th Sep 2010, 1139 participants.
    2010 BNP voters, who would you consider voting for?
    Con – 18%, LibDem – 8%, Labour – 7%, BNP – 80%, UKIP – 31%, Green – 6%
    Who would you NOT consider?
    Con – 52%, LibDem – 61%, Labour – 69%, Green – 52%, UKIP – 20%, BNP – 5%

    28% voted for Lab in 2005, 27% for Con.
    19% voted for Lab in 2001, 23% for Con.

    Sample size isn’t huge (433) but clearly Labour/LibDems the most hated parties – with Tories (excl UKIP) the most popular.

  14. Tingedfringe – you’re looking at the wrong question, if you go further down the survey it asked which parties BNP voters had backed in the past – they are more likely to have voted Labour.

    Essentially, BNP voters are most* likely to be former Labour voters…. but the sort of former Labour voters who in other circumstances have been most likely to have been picked up by the Tories.

    (*though that suggests the difference is bigger than it is…. they aren’t *that* much more likely to be Labour voters, it’s pretty close)

  15. “if you go further down the survey it asked which parties BNP voters had backed in the past”
    If you go further down my post, I pointed that out ;)

  16. Harriet Harman has apparently been on Sky this morning claiming that chances to the electoral register will make it harder for more Labour leaning short term renters, student etc to register to vote. I didn’t see it so I dn’t know what she is talking about, but has anyone any ideas? It seems to be linked to the boundary changes but sounds like a separate issue.

  17. The YouGov aggregated data for March 2011 gives BNP 2%

    The 2010 vote for this sample was Con 1, Lab 0, LD 1, Other 10 (Party ID in 2010: Con 1, Lab 0, LD 1).

    Their voters identify themselves as left(2), centre(1), right(14), with the majority seeing themselves as very right-wing.

    If BNP are on 2%, and the aggregate is of 51,028 responses in March 201, is this a better sample?

  18. MARTYN

    Thanks.

    Reports this morning that Merkel will get a majority-but only with help from the Opposition. This will signal that she no longer controls the coalition with certainty.

    Its amazing that these parliamentary votes on EFSF have already been overtaken by the talk of leveraging etc to 2bn euros.

    This crisis has demonstrated with clarity that the Byzantine labyrinth of EU institutions, overlaid on so many sovereign parliaments with disparate political priorities, is simply unable to take decisions quickly enough-or even at all.

    The EZ must surely become what Barosso effectively called for yesterday-a single Fiscal & Monetary with one Finance Ministry . No doubt they will crawl there via multiple bureaucratic sticking plasters.

    But if they want to keep Greece in the Euro, and not collapse the European Banking system, they have to be able to transfer funds from Berlin to Athens, like we do from London to Liverpool-ie one Eurozone State.

    And that changes the rules of engagement for UK.

  19. Bill P
    “My impression of Ed Miliband’s speech was that, just like Ed Balls, he raises very important questions; I just disagree with their answers.”

    But surely Miliband’s speech ties in very well with your moral stance. He wasn’t saying, “penalise bosses who don’t work hard”, he was saying “penalise companies whose effects are deleterious to the commonwealth.”

    After the experience of the last half decade, that is a compelling moral argument. There’s a debate to be had in this country about our companies’ obsession with shareholder value above all else. Will Hutton was arguing 20 years ago that this was the cancer at the core of our economic well-being.

  20. The Times Leader today returns to that jeering of Blair , and EM’s milking of the applause when he said he wasan’t TB.

    In his interviews afterwards, EM has been at pains to say he disagreed with the heckling,but the Times highlights that he “grinned in gauche fashion & carried on”-instead of giving them an unscripted dressing down & defence of the Labour Party’s greatest winner.

    We will see how all of this will impact EM’s ratings-but the TB booing, the confusion over Predators v Producers, and the continuing allusions to Rowan Atkinson characters are adding up to a bit of a disaster.

  21. “We think that three French banks and one Belgian bank will collapse we think that Barclays and RBS have written credit default swaps and will have problems we think that a big US bank is over exposed to the French banks and will go down”

    Getting a touch of the Royal We Richard?

    Bad sign-remember what happened to Maggie.

    :-) :-)

  22. Alec – Has this to do with the proposal to remove the compulsory component of registration (which was discussed in these pages a few weeks ago)?

    Imo, making registration optional will cut out a lot of procrastinating/disorganised people, who come election time nevertheless do vote.

    One suggestion was to incentivise people to register by making it a prize draw (which happens in some places).

  23. Colin

    Instead of “we” I should have said some financial analysts. I don’t think. I don’t have the brains for that

  24. Richard.

    :-)

    Not true of course.

  25. @Alec

    h
    ttp://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/09/electoral-registration.

    There would also be knock-on effects in the next round of boundary changes.

  26. @Colin

    “We will see how all of this will impact EM’s ratings-but the TB booing, the confusion over Predators v Producers, and the continuing allusions to Rowan Atkinson characters are adding up to a bit of a disaster.”

    Dear oh dear, Colin, I sometimes think, certainly in your worst moments, that you’re Baroness Warsi in disguise. This sort of tired and predictable stuff could have come straight from a Tory HQ rebuttal unit trotting our choreographed denigrations to order.

    You’re better than this, surely, or is it just not possible to occasionally step out of a party political strait-jacket?

  27. Crossbat

    Colin is baroness warsi??!!!! I will never be able to view colin’s post’s in the same way again

    I’m off for a cold shower

  28. Well Crossbat, party political straight jackets don’t apply to me-I’m not a member of a political party.

    In fact the chat last night here of political awakenings at the tender age of 11 made me realise how much of a minority I am on UKPR.

    I thought the speech was poor-some topics that have potential-but dreadfully mangled up in theoretical left wing wonkery.

    What else can I say?

    Well I can saqy that Yvette Cooper’s speech-and her interview performances were very impressive.

    She is the only Shadow Cabinet Minister who has looked & sounded like credible opposition.

    No-I’m not Ms Warsi-prefer trouser suits to saris dear :-) :-)

  29. @Anthony Wells

    Robert

    REDRICH

    “PS to everyone, I have tried to get the Labour background but it doesn’t give me that option when I go into my profile? can anybody help?”

    Sounds like you have the same problem that I had. Anthony fixed it somehow for me. It sounds like he needs to do whatever it was for you, also.

    Anthony – please cna you help me with this, I dont get the option for the Lab background when I go into my profile.

    Thanks in advance

  30. I liked Ed’s speech’s substance – it contained a clear agenda and vision. It set a coherent set of values.

    My problem is that my colleagues at work couldn’t really get what he was talking about – he is attempting to explain real solutions to real problems – but the puiblic are not attuned to that – and actually don’t want to know – Hague was similarly encumbered with similar problems in the public understanding of his philosophy.

    We sadly have a fairly lazy and politically uneducated public who want to hear platitudes, and to vote for people who look the part – and we all pay the price for that when they constantly choose style over substance and demand knee jerk reactions to complex problems. That is the problem of the system we are stuck with- and which all of us must support.

    My fear is that Ed will not connect to that demographic ( he seems weird, my brain hurts trying to figure out what he’s telling me and he looks a bit foreign really).

    I think this nexty election can only be lost by the Coalition parties. Sadly for the country they can only lose it by destroying the economy with a counter productive and excessive austerity package. I think any sustained recovery by 2015 now looks impossible. the task then for Ed will be to simplify his message and go negative – in order to follow a positive and sensible aganda when in government. Tricky but do-able.

    Ed is an electoral gamble – he may sadly prove unelectable – but I hope not. He is potentially a great reforming PM in the making – if he can get himself elected! ( a mirror of Blair really – a great electioneer but lousy PM)

  31. @Colin

    “Well Crossbat, party political straight jackets don’t apply to me-I’m not a member of a political party.”

    You’ve trotted out this defence before, but it’s utterly irrelevant to the donning of party political blinkers and displays of partisanship. The absence of a party membership card fron one’s wallet rarely lessens subjectivity if “my party right or wrong” is the overriding mantra.

    “In fact the chat last night here of political awakenings at the tender age of 11 made me realise how much of a minority I am on UKPR.”

    A gnomic observation that requires much more explanation, I’m afraid

    ” thought the speech was poor-some topics that have potential-but dreadfully mangled up in theoretical left wing wonkery.”

    As dear old Ronnie Reagan would have said; “There you go again!”

    “What else can I say?”

    Quite.

    “Well I can saqy that Yvette Cooper’s speech-and her interview performances were very impressive.”

    Well, knock me over with a large feather duster!

    “She is the only Shadow Cabinet Minister who has looked & sounded like credible opposition”

    Oh dear, there you go again.

    “No-I’m not Ms Warsi-prefer trouser suits to saris dear”

    Now, that is something we can all be truly thankful for!! lol

  32. Redrich –

    Will try and do it today. V. busy this morning, so if I forget put up another comment later and remind me!

  33. I have to say I am glad of Ms Cooper’s decision to set up a police commission. And the choice of Lord Stevens is very reassuring, as he is widely admired by police officers.

    I wasn’t so comfortable with the extremely partisan language she used in association with the decision to set it up, but I accept that she is a Labour politician speaking at a Labour conference and can be expected to try and score party political points from the issue.

    I just wonder if the Labour party will feel bound by the conclusions the review commission draws. I imagine they are hoping for a conclusion along the lines of “The Coalition’s cuts to the police are very damaging to the fight against crime and the country should elect a Labour government that will spend more money on the police”. But if they come up with more specific, less attractive proposals will the Labour party disavow them like it did the Browne report into higher education funding?

  34. I think people tend to be a little harsh on opposition shadow ministers when they make conference speeches. They are not in power, so can only make comments in general, plus a few jibes at the other parties. They cannot announce any real policy proposals, as they would not know the cost and also particularly difficult as the country is likely to be in a very poor economic state at the next GE. Also we are only 18 months past a GE when Labour suffered a defeat, so have not had the time to move from government into a fully functioning opposition, able to offer an alternative.

    In my opinion, Cameron and his team did not start to put forward an alternative agenda until 2008 i.e. about 3 years after Cameron became leader of the opposition. So I think Ed M and his team, will have to spend atleast 2 years listening to people and carrying out research, before they can start to put forward any alternative policies. The big problem for Labour is that they do not have any money to fund the parties work around the country to rebuild their bases. Not sure that is healthy to our democracy. I suspect the Lib Dem will also be in the same position, struggling to obtain funds.

  35. Some interesting perspective on the idea of a traansaction tax from Rob Peston. Since 1977 the volume of foreign exchange trading has increased by 234 times, while nominal global GDP has only increased by 7 times.

    Given that every trade made takes a cut of the deal, it’s clear that the explosion in trading has effectively extracted rent from the productive economy, and places in stark perspective the fact that the growth of city trading regimes does not help the real economy.

    Peston goes on to quote the Bank of Interenational Settlements whose research shows that countries with large financial sectors have correspondingly small manufacturing sectors. This is because the financial sector attracts capital and labour with higher returns, effectively starving manufacturing from the chance to grow and expand. Peston suggests that the UK might not have so much to worry about if taxes on financial transactions moved thiss trade overseas.

    I would also add my own observations, that the returns to the exchequer could also be boosted by a switch from the financial sector to manufacturing. We know that tax avoidance increases with higher earnings, and that the Corporation Tax regime is pretty lax on large companies when compared to PAYE and VAT taxes on more average wage earners in the real economy.

    If the city shrank with a correspondent increase in manufacturing, we might find the overall tax take increases, as well as employment.

  36. The whole point of the Tobin tax (as James Tobin proposed it) is to increase friction in financial transactions to cool capital flows.

    It was never originally intended to raise money but rather to be a structural reform to the world economy.

  37. @Iceman

    Good points. For what it’s worth, I like Ed, but then I’m one of those people who will read policy papers.

    I think in the next year or two Ed and Labour can develop about 4-5 soundbites that resonate. He’s made a decent start: note how much of the media does not use inverted commas for ‘squeezed middle’, suggesting it’s entering public discourse separate from a party label. ‘Too far and too fast’ is also starting to be quoted without rebuttal. About three more would do.

    Ed is very bright and intellectually switched on. He needs to dim that a little bit. Just keep repeating those soundbites.

    As for his appearance, he’s obviously been practising in front of a mirror to stop his mouth going two ways at once. But I fear the ‘looks a bit foreign’ will tap into latent anti-semitism …

    More generally, I’m bothered by the way the commentariat is willing him to fail without examining the polling. Here at UKPR we’ve got used to Labour leads of varying sizes since last year. The commentators have ignored it. If on GE day Lab polls 41% to Con 37% it’s a majority. Nuff said.

  38. @ Colin

    Well Crossbat, party political straight jackets don’t apply to me I’m not a member of a political party.
    ——————————————————————

    Well Colin, you sure could’ve fooled me! I think the Conservatives would love to have lots of “non-members” like you 8-)

  39. @COLIN

    “Well Crossbat, party political straight jackets don’t apply to me-I’m not a member of a political party.

    In fact the chat last night here of political awakenings at the tender age of 11 made me realise how much of a minority I am on UKPR.”

    I am not, and have never been a member of a political party. It only encourages them.

  40. If it makes any difference, I’m not the member of any party either. Proud union member though.

  41. @CROSSBAT11

    “I think in the next year or two Ed and Labour can develop about 4-5 soundbites that resonate.”

    I thought he wasn’t Tony Blair? Soundbites are not policies.

  42. @Alec

    ‘Since 1977 the volume of foreign exchange trading has increased by 234 times, while nominal global GDP has only increased by 7 times. ‘

    UK exchange controls were lifted in 1979 so the comparison is not valid. IMHO.

  43. Alexander

    Why is the comparison not valid. Foreign exchange trading has exploded since the abolition of exchange controls, not just in the UK but also globally and much of it is purely speculative. Do you remember in 88 I think it was when the dollar almost reached parity with the pound, what was that about? Which comparison do you want to make and how much foreign exchange trading do we actually need?

  44. “I think in the next year or two Ed and Labour can develop about 4-5 soundbites that resonate.”

    I thought he wasn’t Tony Blair? Soundbites are not policies.”

    Indeed they are not but there is no getting away from the way sound bites resonate and ‘ping’ against the everyday background noise from politicians – and they are remembered.

  45. I love this deconstruction of the “anti-business” tag, very amusing: http://flyingrodent.blogspot.com/2011/09/media-manipulation-at-its-most-overt.html

  46. Anthony Wells

    Redrich –

    Will try and do it today. V. busy this morning, so if I forget put up another comment later and remind me!

    Cheers – much appreciated

  47. @Aleksander – “UK exchange controls were lifted in 1979 so the comparison is not valid. IMHO.”

    Of course it’s valid, and you missed entirely the point of the issue.

    Whatever the reason, currency trading has exploded, with very limited if any, real value to the broader economy.

    The other point to consider is that Rob Peston only used currency exchanges as a proxy for general financial market activities. He could easily have used any number of other measures, such as share dealing, derivatives trading, commodity trades etc.

    All the evidence appears to be pretty categoric in that the level of activity in the city actively harms the broader economy and simplistic comparisons between the exchequer revenues raised by the city compared to other sectors miss the point that more money would be raised if the city activity was curtailed in favour of more productive activity.

  48. Redrich – try again now, it should be working for you.

  49. @CROSSBAT
    I have always associated the party which you support and its followers with hypocracy, but for you to criticise Colin for trotting out the same old tired guff , must qualify you for some kind of an award.

    Have you read some of the comments on this thread ?
    The certainty of Labour victory in 3.5 years time mind you, based on YG and their stand alone Labour majority, that no other major pollster agrees with. The total absence of love, trust, respect, or even lust for his body, that afflicts Milibands ratings is totally discounted. Furthermore very nearly twice as many potential voters blame Labour for the cuts, than blame the coalition.

    None the less, the same old drivel gets trotted out thread after thread . I do not expect you to join the Young Conservatives, but for Christ’s sake get real. Colin BTW, makes the biggest contribution to the Conservative cause on this board.

  50. @Anthony

    Cool – thanks

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