Tonight’s daily YouGov poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%. After a few polls showing even narrower leads at the end of August, including a couple as low as 1 point, they seem to be stablising at around 5 or 6 points. Don’t be surprised if conference seasons produces some up and down though – there is clearly no sign of such a movement from the Lib Dem conference yet, but the most significant movements normally come after the leaders’ conference speeches, so look out for the results tomorrow or at the weekend.


351 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%”

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  1. I’m sure the Tories will have a great conference – PR & stage managed to the nth degree.

    Labour’s will be different from last year, when there was the culmination of the leadership contest. 2011 could well be a messy affair with blue/ purple bookers vs. old reds vs. reformist reds. Lots to look forward to! It will kill our polling, though.
    8-)

  2. First again & I even read the article & made an actual comment. I obviously spend too much time around here. :-)

  3. Well there’s optimistic Amber!

    Look forward to it :-)

  4. I look foward to the drama of a Labour Conference. It will be very interesting to see how Ed Millibands proposal of Shadow Cabinet elections will be taken. I hope they stay but thats just me.
    You can never tell what will happen in a Labour conference. Tom Watson rip up a copy of NOTW, Union Leaders declare war on Britain, Eddie Izzard dose drag routine, Labour pardons Ramsey Macdonold (not holding my breath) Ed Milliband says it was wrong of Gordon Brown to be PM…. Any bets?

  5. Clegg’s Conference speech… the LibDems obviously want to lose every Scottish seat they have, both at Westminster & Holyrood (which will be quite an achievement, given the List). :-)

  6. Mrs RR (very non-political) after listening to Clegg on the news said”he is sounding more and more like Cameron every day, has he joined the Conservative Party?”.

    Put a smile on my face :-)

  7. Amber

    Only saw extracts of Clegg’s speech, but noted a commentator saying he used the term “right” 18 times.

    In a political context it would have been wiser (if less accurate) to use the term “correct”.

  8. @Colin – I didn’t see NC’s speech but I did pick up some of your comments on it on the last thread.

    I have to say, if you think this speech signifies Clegg will never work with the Eds in government I think you are sadly deluding yourself. As some speculated, should Labour have the largest number of seats after a future GE then Clegg will be duty bound, by his own word, to go to them first to negotiate a deal.

    He will negotiate hard, and if he gets the deal he wants he will enter government with Labour. he will then spend the next 5 years savaging your lot, as he is now savaging Labour. You will feel betrayed, Labour supporters will laugh at you and Lib Dems will accuse you of arrogance for assuming they were always your poodles.

    I have a soft spot for the Lib Dems, but I also have no doubt that they will swing in the wind. I wouldn’t trust them too much if I were you.

  9. OLDNAT

    HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

    Clegg is, absolutely and nailed on certainly, in political terms…dead meat.

    He won’t hold any seat in the UK except possibly as a Tory candidate.

  10. Red Rag

    Well at least she didn’t say he was sounding more amd more like Ed Miliband! Then he really would have cause to be [even more] worried. :)

  11. Alec

    Agree with your post, very true. Remember what he was saying about Tories before May 2010! (but then that’s politics for you I suppose.)

  12. Not much discussed, DfE officials use of private (ie through unsecured servers located outside UK) email accounts to conduct government business. If the aim was to prevent leaks rather than circumvent FOI requestsor prevent leaks, it has failed:

    h
    ttp://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/08/31/michael-goves-official-us_n_943499.html

  13. The scottish results are interesting. the last few polls have been in the realms of:

    Lab 42%
    SNP 28%
    Con 19%
    Lib 6%

    (give or take a point)

    Tonight’s YG poll:

    SNP 36%
    Lab 34%
    Con 21%
    Lib 6%

    The 30-poll average with a SD of 1:

    Lab 41.7%
    SNP 28% (tonight’s poll is an outlier on their averages)
    Con 19.2%
    Lib 6.1%

    So possibly an outlier. The Scottish budget will probably yield more of a clue on peoples’ impression of the SNP as polls continue. Have the SNP sold the budget as necessary / Westminster’s fault, or do they have to take the flak?

  14. @Chouenlai – [In response to Roger Mexico on the last thread] – “Please desist from trying to treat me like an idiot. I am not one and I dislike pedantic gits.”

    I don’t wish to be picky, but technically speaking, as ‘git’ is derived from ‘beget’ it has traditionally meant an illegitimate person or b*st*rd.

    I’m not sure if you had an inside track on Roger M’s parentage, but as you know, I always like to get the facts straight.

  15. cont.

    Scotland Votes (30-average):

    Lab 43 (+2)
    SNP 8 (+2)
    Lib 5 (-6)
    Con 3 (+2)

    and just for fun, the day’s poll:

    Lab 34 (-7)
    SNP 19 (+13)
    Con 3 (+2)
    Lib 3 (-8)

  16. Tonight’s YouGov

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-210911.pdf

    Quite a good poll for Labour by recent standards given that the sample seems more plausible. The ratio of Con to Lab voters in 2010 is very close to the 2010 result, which gives a bit more confidence in the results (by contrast, some other recent ones had low proportions of 2010 Con voters).

    Also, the 2010 Lab voters appear more solid than usual: 95% are staying, only 2% switching to the Cons. 2010 Con voters are less solid, 85% are staying and 5% switching to Lab – the net 80% is as low as I can recall from (a dodgy) memory.

    Also a good one for the ‘Others’ i.e. UKIP 5%, SNP/PC 4%, Greens 3%. The SNP are back in the lead in Scotland, which although it’s only a cross break does nonetheless mean that for once YouGov is consistent with other polling companies.

  17. OldNat

    In a political context it would have been wiser (if less accurate) to use the term “correct”.

    True in terms of ‘left’ and ‘right’ you are correct; however inpractice you would expect the speaker to always use right.

    When I was a YL and being trained for great things (that never actually came about) I was told in no uncertain manner never to use ‘correct’ in speeches but always use ‘right’.

  18. Statgeek

    I commented earlier that there are one or two YG polls in the field that seem to be Scottish ones. Whether they are ones that ever see the light of day is, of course, entirely another matter!

    I’ve only seen a brief summary of the Budget, so can’t really comment, but I was glad to see the “Drug-dealer” tax back in there. :-)

  19. OldNat and Statgeek

    As statgeek reported
    Tonight’s YG poll:
    SNP 36%
    Lab 34%
    Con 21%
    Lib 6%

    Obviously disappointing for us yellows; however the polling for Tories is strange. Is it do you think a long overdue blue revival or merely that polling figures are so low as to be meaningless.

  20. @ Valerie
    Chow mein? Chop Suey?
    Just add “Roly poly” and you could open a restaurant!”

    Very funny tho should it not be should it not be “Electoral Roll – y Poll- y”.
    But I do deplore your addiction to yellow blobs, which seems to be spreading. These loathsome objects make the site look like a the wall of a Primary School class. As Lenin would have said, were he have been a contributor to this site”: “When every post has a yellow blob, no post has a yellow blob.”

  21. Henry

    As always, cross breaks for VI are pretty useless.

    “When I was a YL and being trained for great things (that never actually came about) I was told in no uncertain manner never to use ‘correct’ in speeches but always use ‘right’.”

    Were you being trained to take part in a glorious coalition with the Tories? :-) Any word can resonate differently with its hearers, depending on the circumstances of the time.

    Clegg regularly repeating “right”, at this particular moment, may find that it has unexpected resonances.

    Of course, he might just have gone to the same training school as you. :-)

  22. Mrs RR (very non-political) after listening to Clegg … Put a smile on my face

    If Mrs RR had been politically committed to Labour the comment could be seen as disparanging but if as you state she is politically neutral, maybe she was indicating how united the Coalition Party leaders appeared to be, and what a good thing this was for the country at this troubled time.

  23. @Anthony W

    “After a few polls showing even narrower leads at the end of August, including a couple as low as 1 point, they seem to be stablising at around 5 or 6 points”

    Yep, that’s my take too, although looking at the non-movement of the LibDem VI ratings throughout their deemed-to-be-successful Conference, I’m not sure, even after Clegg’s keynote speech today, that we should expect much in the way of change. In fact, unless strange and unpredictable events occur over the next two weeks at the Labour and Tory Conferences, I think we may well sail through the Conference season with very little effect on the polls.

    Sadly for us politicos on these pages, I don’t think the great British public is paying much attention. Mind you, they might when their wallets start to feel the pinch. We live in largely apolitical and consumerist times.

  24. OldNat

    Of course, he might just have gone to the same training school as you

    But with a little more success. I was one of the LIberals who returned to my constituency to prepare for Govt but never returned.

  25. Crossbat, Valerie, Robbie Alive,

    Enough of the cheap racism thanks. I would have expected you to know better.

  26. Alex

    I disagree with you and. Really don’t like to, but I can’t see how NC could take US into a coalition with labour after the next election. He’s ruled it out. Even in the unlikely event that we gain seats but have to do a deal with labour, he would still have to resign. For a start the opposition ie the blues would tear him to pieces and the public would back them up. But also labour wouldn’t put up with it and I doubt that senior libs would either. It seems to me that his fate is now tied up with the blues if they do well then he does well. But if they don’t do well or do reply well then he will be in the political wildness. I don’t get it it wasn’t necessary to go that far, what has he to gain by going so far?

  27. CROSSBAT11

    “Sadly for us politicos on these pages, I don’t think the great British public is paying much attention. Mind you, they might when their wallets start to feel the pinch. We live in largely apolitical and consumerist times.”

    After 51 years (on and off) in active politics, I really don’t things have changed that much (OK consumerism has increased hugely).

    I still remember our neighbour in rural Aberdeenshire in the 50s having voted Unionist because she thought it meant Trade Unionist.

  28. @Sergio

    “Enough of the cheap racism thanks. I would have expected you to know better.”

    Steady on, my racism came rather expensively I’ll have you know!

  29. Crossbat 11
    Yep, that’s my take too, although looking at the non-movement of the LibDem VI ratings throughout their deemed-to-be-successful Conference, I’m not sure, even after Clegg’s keynote speech today, that we should expect much in the way of change.

    It maybe we had our conference boost yesterday (1%) before reverting to norm. However, ever the optimist, I expect our great leader’s speech to drive our ratings upto 11% or even 12%. If so I must not look down ; I can’t stand dizzy heights.

  30. Nice one, Henry.

    I would have saved some electrons in these straitened times and just posted an emoticon, but you know that I am always concerned not to give offence to others on this site.

  31. RinN

    I don’t get it it wasn’t necessary to go that far, what has he to gain by going so far?

    He was demonstrating 100% commitment to the Coalition, hoping to carry the vast majority of the Party. I really don’t think he is troubled about the longer term. He accepts that if the Coalition fail to turn round the economy that he can hang up his Parliamentary boots. If the Coalition is riding high in 2014/5 then there maybe a LD revival and if so DC, even with an overall majority, may ask NC, Vince DA and the others to join with him for another 5 years to complete the job.

  32. @RiN – “For a start the opposition ie the blues would tear him to pieces and the public would back them up. ”

    Err – not sure if you’ve noticed, but the reds and the public have already torn him up after his volte face after the last election.

    Joking apart, I understand what you say about Clegg, but don’t for a minute think that the Lib Dems as a party wouldn’t do a deal with Labour. This is the ‘mature coalition politics’ you oranges have lectured the rest of us about for decades, which other, less charitable observers have described as ‘switching to whichever side can get you into power’.

  33. @Crossbat11
    “Sadly for us politicos on these pages, I don’t think the great British public is paying much attention. Mind you, they might when their wallets start to feel the pinch. ”

    There are those who pay no attention to current affairs, whose VI presumably rarely changes. Those who do pay attention will realize that most economies are in trouble and that despite the cuts the deficit is getting worse. Everyone I have discussed this with is tightening their belts and realizes that whichever party was in power the government would have to economize as well.

    There may be dissenting voices on here, but the common sense of ordinary people says that when times are hard you batten down the hatches. When even prominent Labour people such as Darling agree, votes are unlikely to swing.

    Therefore I too don’t expect much effect from the conferences (it’s usually only short-term anyway), unless something very dramatic happens such as a leader being ousted.

  34. @OldNat

    “I still remember our neighbour in rural Aberdeenshire in the 50s having voted Unionist because she thought it meant Trade Unionist.”

    A bit like opting for Democracy and then finding you’d cast a vote for the Liberal Democrats!

  35. @ Henry

    …and if so DC, even with an overall majority, may ask NC, Vince DA and the others to join with him for another 5 years to complete the job.
    —————————————
    If Nick Clegg believes that, we should have the ‘tailors’ fit him out for a strait-jacket… that would be the most delusional fantasy ever….
    :-P

  36. @Oldnat
    “I still remember our neighbour in rural Aberdeenshire in the 50s having voted Unionist because she thought it meant Trade Unionist.”

    I can well believe it.

    A couple of decades ago, my partner gained election in the Black Country as a Labour councillor with a stonking great share of the vote. The day after, two old ladies came up to her in the street and confided: “we voted for you love because we liked your father”. She couldn’t understand it, given that her father lived 100 miles away in Wales, until she remembered that she shares the surname of the former Conservative (and subsequently Ulster Unionist) MP.

    It’s true.

  37. CROSSBAT11

    :-)

    (That’s why yellow blobs are useful!)

  38. Alec
    …don’t for a minute think that the Lib Dems … wouldn’t do a deal with Labour. This is the ‘mature coalition politics’ you oranges have lectured the rest of us about for decades, which other, less charitable observers have described as ‘switching to whichever side can get you into power’

    I agree we are likely to jump on to the ‘great red bus’, should the situation occur. I would like to think we would have the same benign influence on Labour as we have had on the blues. In practice, I think the DC will be riding high in 2015, with NC still happily perched on the pillion.

  39. Maybe this is NC’s revenge on his party – if he has to go he is taking the Party with him.

  40. Phil

    :-)

  41. @HENRY

    “Obviously disappointing for us yellows; however the polling for Tories is strange. Is it do you think a long overdue blue revival or merely that polling figures are so low as to be meaningless.”

    I don’t see a revival, so much as a lessening of Labour’s anti-Tory domination of Scotland (imho of course). there will still be plenty of a similar view in the SNP, but if I may be bold, the Conservatives are still unfashionable up this way. However, the dyed in the wool unionists might be disillusioned with SLAB, and turn to the blues. Equally, the big dip in Lib support might translate to all parties taking up a bit of the slack.

    Just to add some geeky stats ( :) ) :

    The average values:

    Lab 41.9%
    SNP 28.0%
    Con 19.3%
    Lib 6.2%

    The modal values:

    Lab 42%
    SNP 28%
    Con 18%
    Lib 6%

    The median values:

    Lab 42%
    SNP 28%
    Con 19%
    Lib 6%

    Not very exciting. :)

  42. Amberstar
    If Nick Clegg believes that, we should have the ‘tailors’ fit him out for a strait-jacket… that would be the most delusional fantasy ever….

    I could be oversensitive, but sometimes I get the feeling you don’t take our glorious leader or his loyal supporter seriously.

  43. @ Henry

    Au contraire – I take his supporters too seriously because, now I think about it, you must’ve been joking when you said the Tories with a mjority might continue to tolerate the Dems… :-)

  44. Henry

    You have to be thick shined to be a loyal yellow on here, just don’t tell em where ye live

  45. Call me a cynic but even if nick clegg did the most popular thing ever, you gov wouldn’t shift for the lib dems. I’m much more interested in the other polls. You gov is beginning to bore me

  46. Ashley

    You’re a cynic.

  47. Although I must admit that the Scottish Poll is very disappointing to Labour when you take into consideration the opinion poll as a whole this is very promising for Labour in cutting ties with it’s imagine that it is seen as a mainly Welsh and Scottish/Unionist Party.

    What this means is that because Labour’s second highest votes are casted in Scotland and in Scotland they traditionally have a higher share of the vote then the rest of the UK seeing Labour at 41% + that disappointing 34% in Scotland surely means that Labour have finally broadened it’s votes outside Scotland and Wales.

    I have not seen these polls but I have seen in other recent(ish) polls that Labour are now making remarkable ground in the Midlands (an area I have always seen as a three party split) as well as eating into the LD’s vote in Southern England. I mean getting between 45-50% in the Midlands has got to be seen as an achievment.

    I still have resverations about the SNP’s vote in Scotland though. I think, unless a referendum is passed, that is if defeated in that referendum then most Scots (give it they are unionists or not) will probably go back to voting Labour in essence of “keeping the Tories out” in National politics because of bad blood between Scotland and the Tories. A sort of “lesser of two evils” if it had to have a phase.

    However, come Scottish independence does happen that will not give up my fight to put federalism back on the political map as I believe that in essence that it the only solution to this political headache. Including within the EU.

  48. Oldnat

    I’m impressed by your politeness. You didn’t suggest the most popular thing ever that nick clegg could do

  49. Andy C

    I think, unless a referendum is passed, that is if defeated in that referendum then most Scots (give it they are unionists or not) will probably go back to voting Labour in essence of “keeping the Tories out” in National politics because of bad blood between Scotland and the Tories.

    My original thoughts on the Tories in Scotland changing their name and then just be associated with the Tories in the same way as the UU used to be, was a bad idea. However, what you say is true and the Scots and English Tories just don’t gel because of history of MT era. A party which is purely Scottish can beat the drum for Scotland in the same way as the SNP are seen to do albeit from a pro rather than an anti unionist stance. Given the present Tory MPs in Scotland, they would hardly risk much anyway.

    The LIb Dems are in a different position but I think they need to look at their campaigning techniques because clearly they are doing something wrong in Scotland and there is a high proportion of LD seats at stake.

  50. Andy C

    A Scottish poll? Have I missed something? I thought Statgeek’s numbers referred to YouGov cross breaks.

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