The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are up here. On the regular trackers, Cameron’s rating continues to trend very slowly upwards, Miliband’s slowly downwards, as the hackgate effect fades. Economic optimism remains dire. Only 3% of people think the economy is in a good state, 79% in a bad state (typical of the last few months). Only 9% of people expect their household’s financial situation to improve in the next twelve months, 58% expect it to get worse (a “feel good factor” of minus 49, again typical of the last few months).

YouGov asked if people thought the public or private sector were suffering more in the economic downturn – respondents were slightly more likely to think that public sector workers have suffered more than private sector workers (by 27% to 17%), but 49% of people think both groups have fared much the same. On public sector pensions 44% think the government’s changes are right (marginally down from when the question was last asked), 39% wrong, 49% of people oppose public sector strike action over pensions, with 38% of people in support (pretty much unchanged).

On the Liberal Democrats and the coalition, almost half (48%) of people think that entering the coalition was the wrong decision, a proportion mirrored amongst those who voted Lib Dem at the last election (although amongst the remaining Lib Dem supporters 71% think it was the right thing to do). There is a similar split in opinion on whether they should stay in the coalition now – 36% think they should stay (including 78% of their remaining supporters), 45% think they should leave.

Despite Nick Clegg’s low approval ratings, 41% think he should stay as Lib Dem leader compared to 32% who would like him to stand down. A majority (63%) of people did not know who would make the best replacement leader for Clegg (unsurprisingly given the relative low profile of third party politicians – Vince Cable was the top choice, but with only 16%, and this was probably because he was the least anonymous).

On the question of how much influence the Liberal Democrats have within government, most Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters think they have a little influence, with Conservatives thinking that is about right or too much, and most Liberal Democrats thinking the party should wield greater influence. Labour supporters tend to see the Lib Dems as not having much influence in government. Overall they are seen as somewhat more influential than they were when we asked the same question in May – back then only 8% thought they had a lot of influence, that has now risen to 15%.

46% of people see the Conservatives as having benefitted the most from the coalition, compared to just 19% who see the Liberal Democrats as the main beneficiaries. Looking to the future, 36% of people think that the Liberal Democrats have permanently damaged their party by entering the coalition, 23% think they will recover in time, 21% think they will eventually benefit from having been in government.

On a seperate subject, Labour are seen as the party that best understands and reflects the concerns of women, by 25% to the Conservatives’ 11%. However, 31% of people said no party reflects the views of women. Asked about the leaders, there is very little to choose – Miliband leads Cameron by only 16% to 13%, with 35% saying none of the party leaders understand or reflect the views of women (amongst women respondents, this rise to 43%). Labour are in a better position when people are asked about whether women are well represented in senior roles in each party. 47% of people think women are very or fairly well represented at the top of the Labour party, compared to 33% who think the same about the Tories.


27 Responses to “More from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll”

  1. Seems that, apart from Labour supporters – who are going to obviously be biased – the view that Cameron treats female MPs badly in the commons has not stuck with the public.
    This is good news for Cameron and his spin doctors – it’s one less thing to worry about.

  2. Well this being 1st is getting to be a habit.
    8-)

  3. @ Tinged

    Thank you :oops:

  4. Scottish split (218 respondents):

    Westminster voting intention – Scotland (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 43% (+1)
    SNP 27% (+7)
    Con 23% (+6)
    LD 5% (-14)
    Grn 1% (n/c)
    UKIP 1% (n/c)
    BNP 0 (n/c)
    oth 0

    Net UK Government approval:

    Rest of South -14
    London -15
    Midlands/Wales -25
    Scotland -34
    North -42

    Great Britain -25

  5. @OldNat

    There’s a discussion on The Other Place (PB) about whether political parties post en masse on political boards to influence public opinion.

    Whether they *do* is (to my mind) doubtful but whether they *can* is undisputed: they can. The technique is called “online persona management” and uses automated software to create and manage tens (if not hundreds) of sockpuppets, each sounding like a plausible human being. Some links are below.

    I think I’m right in saying that you occasionally post on PB. I don’t want to go there (it’s quite shouty) but you may want to tell them the above when you next go there.

    Regards, Martyn

    h ttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/8388603/US-military-creates-fake-online-personas.html
    h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/mar/17/us-spy-operation-social-networks
    h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ntrepid

  6. (reposted due to moderation)

    @OldNat

    There’s a discussion on The Other Place (PB) about whether political parties post en masse on political boards to influence public opinion.

    Whether they *do* is (to my mind) doubtful but whether they *can* is undisputed: they can. The technique is called “online persona management” and uses automated software to create and manage tens (if not hundreds) of sockpuppets, each sounding like a plausible human being. Some links are below.

    I think I’m right in saying that you occasionally post on PB. I don’t want to go there (it’s quite shouty) but you may want to tell them the above when you next go there.

    Regards, Martyn

    * Links edited out to bypass moderation filter: google “online persona management” instead.

  7. Martyn

    How many here are sock puppets, no names please

  8. Martyn

    Could sock puppets be used on this site? Could it be used for polling sites such as YouGov?

    Not that I would consider such underhand methods; besides I enjoy being one of the few lone voices in the wilderness.

  9. Maybe it’s just me and I’m trapped in the mists of time where opinion polls reacted to political events, but I’d have thought that both Cameron, personally, and his party generally, would have received some sort of noticeable boost, however short-lived, from his recent triumphant visit to Tripoli and Benghazi. I thought we liked our leaders as triumphant heroes, bestowing their favours on grateful inhabitants of benighted countries. From the evidence of the YouGov headline and sub-question data, seemingly not.

    The polls are making discordant and contradictory reading at the moment. To quote my old friend, Paddy Ashdown, the recent Ashcroft poll was clearly rubbish, but the other more reputable ones are trying to tell us different things at the moment. They’ve obviously tightened, mainly due to a Labour dip, but just when we think a trend is taking shape, we get a poll suggesting otherwise.

    There are three things, however, that seem unarguable. The Tories are stuck somewhere between 35-38%, a rating that seems more or less impervious to political developments that are both good and bad for them, Labour are swinging between 38-43%, but remain the one party seemingly capable of getting well into the 40s and opening up a lead of some significance, and the Lib Dems are feeding off the bottom of the polling ocean, 13% at best, 8% at worst.

    At one time, I thought the Conference season may see a decisive shift but, apart from some daily blipping, I no longer think that these largely predictable and stage-managed occasions will make much difference in the present climate. I predict us sailing on as we are for some time yet with the only the possibility of a major change coming off the back of an Alec-esque economic cataclysm. Much as I’d like to see Labour win the next election, I’m not sure I want that to occur, to be honest. I’m a tortured soul in many ways!

  10. @ HENRY

    ” I enjoy being one of the few lone voices in the wilderness.”

    Me too Henry-there is a strange perverse pleasure in it.
    :-)

  11. Colin & Henry

    Lone voices crying in the wildness, don’t they tend to have their heads cut off and served up on a silver platter

    I better be careful!!

  12. @Henry, RiN

    * Could automated sockpuppets be used on this site? Yes
    * Are automated sockpuppets used on this site? Probably not
    * Could automated sockpuppets be used on the YouGov panel? Doubtful (doesn’t YouGov phone panel members up to prove they exist?)

    Given that many of us devote considerable unpaid time to posting here, and that generally speaking our efforts cancel each other out, and that we cannot influence Anthony in his posts, there’s probably no point in creating automated sockpuppets for this site.

    As for good old-fashioned manual sockpuppetry? Well, I assume there’s at least one person posting here under more than one identity simultaneously, but I also assume that generally speaking people just stick to one ID.

    Regards, Martyn

  13. @HENRY & COLIN
    I must be getting old, the Lone Conservative thing rather gets me down sometimes. When I first came on the scene as Roland Haines, I really enjoyed it, but of course there were many more Tories and sensible LDs around back then. I think the worse part of the left wing influx is comment after comment regarding Steve Hilton breaking wind at a BBC soiree, and the resulting terminal damage to conservatism, but no mention of Blair’s hobnobbing with Gaddafi.

  14. To all.

    I see that most polls combine Wales with the Midlands. Is there a simple formula for seperating the two out, as Plaid Cymru’s polling seems to be buried within that, and it’s hard to get an accurate estimate on the Advanced Swingometer.

  15. @martyn

    As for good old-fashioned manual sockpuppetry? Well, I assume there’s at least one person posting here under more than one identity simultaneously, but I also assume that generally speaking people just stick to one ID.

    I don’t know who you have in mind Martyn. I have been Roland Haines, Sapper and Chouenlai over the last couple of years. But, never at the same time. I am riddled with guilt as a poster, but not that guilt.

  16. A sockpuppet’s comment: Wholly partisan and entirely irrelevant to any ongoing discussions.

    We see plenty of the former on here and occasionally the latter…but both?

  17. Chouenlai

    I must say that your present incarnation is much more restrained than previous ones

    Maybe the Hindus are right about each reincarnation leading us closer to niverna. But I think you have a way to go yet

  18. @CROSSPATCH
    I was wondering about the AshCROFT poll and the AshDOWN reaction. I think your comment has convinced me that AshCROFT is kosher. AshDOWN has never been right about anything yet, so why should he start now.

  19. dick in norge
    Dead right, Richard. Nirvana for me is a 100 seat Tory majority, we are a long way from that at present.

  20. Chouenlai

    I spoke too soon

  21. @Chouenlai

    For the avoidance of doubt, I do not know or suspect any named individual of being a sockpuppet and I accept your assurance that you are not one.

    I was making a *general* observation (human nature being what it is, there has to be at least one sockpuppet on this board), not a *specific* accusation (person X is a sockpuppet).

    Regards, Martyn

  22. @martyn
    I fully understand. However, with my record of name changing, I could always look like a suspect. Thanks for your reply.

  23. @Chouenlai

    You’re welcome.

    Regards, Martyn

  24. I notice that there is a link from the guardian to this blog post, so I think maybe we should begin some serious political discourse.

    My view on the lib dem conference is that its going well so far in as much as there have not been any punch ups so far, and only one shout of rubbish from the floor. Clegg and tether did ok but Danny Alexander looks to be weak and I don’t see him as continuing in govt even if the coalition wins the next GE and he retains his seat

  25. @RiN

    I heard D.A. got a standing ovation (I’m not watching the action).

  26. @Chouenlai

    Well, well, well, old Rollers comes clean and drops his many masks. Lord Roland Sapper of Chouenlai, despite many denials in the past, is one and the same person.

    Actually, I’m relieved, because the thought of four different people talking such drivel rather worried me. I’m glad the piffle only has one source! lol

  27. Statgeek

    Well he was the one who got the rubbish comment from the floor. Standing ovation are mandatory, failure to get one would be headline news. But I must admit that I’m not watching the show and just going by snippets on sky, the guardian and telegraph, reading Danny’s speech I think he would have to an orator of exceptional skill to turn such badly written dross into motivation, I talking about style here not content.