The monthly online ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 38%(nc), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 11%(nc), Others 13%(+2). No significant change in itself, but it fits into the general pattern of dropping Labour leads, although ComRes’s online polls do tend to produce some of the better results for the Conservatives. The poll also has ComRes’s leadership rating questions, and like MORI and YouGov previously, they show the boost Ed Miliband recieved from hackgate having largely disappeared.

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. YouGov tend to show some of the larger Labour leads, but like other companies are also showing smaller leads since mid-August, dropping from 8-9 point leads to leads of 2-6 points of late. As usual I’ll have a more detailled post on the YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow when the tables are up.

Finally the Sunday Telegraph is reporting some Populus polling for Michael Ashcroft (at least, I assume it was Populus – they usually do Lord Ashcroft’s polling for him). I haven’t had chance to look properly at this yet, but Ashcroft’s report is online here.


62 Responses to “New ComRes, YouGov and Populus(?) polling”

1 2
  1. Hi Anthony

    Any word on that Conservative Home Scottish poll yet?

    I hate to nag, but … :-)

  2. Anthony

    Ta. Just saw your reply on the previous thread.

  3. The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%.
    ————————————-
    I’m highlighting this poll as the start of a new trend. Where Sunday YG’s go, the other polls seem to follow.

    Conference coverage might make a fool of me but I’m willing to risk it & say this is a post Libya, turning point for Labour.
    8-)

  4. AMBERSTAR

    Conference coverage might make a fool of me but I’m willing to risk it & say this is a post Libya, turning point for Labour

    IMO any poll showing the LDs on a mere 9% cannot be trusted.

  5. Richard in Norway

    Just in case you have moved onto this new discussion. Thank you again for your full and thoughtful analysis.

  6. ..Has anyone read the ashcroft stuff, I’m a little dubious of the of some of the questions as being leading or not having the counter question, but the pictures for clegg just blew me away. They say a picture is worth a thousand words, well those four pictures were 4 thousand swear words. He must be very happy that this didn’t come out before conference. Of course we didn’t expect much and the verbal responses etc were much as would expect but the pictures suggest that people are trying to be nice

  7. AMBERSTAR

    Sorry about the previous post; the LD poll is probably right; just getting over-excited on the prospect of a great LD conference spearheaded by our esteemed leader (before declining into despair later this week as we drift further in the polls.

  8. Henry

    You are welcome, it was good for me to practice organizing my thoughts but I think I need to invest in speech to text

  9. Richard in Norway

    Relating to one of your previous posts on how I should invest my hard earned savings, you did not get your gold at rock bottom prices from a certain GB did you? If so, please can we have it back.

  10. Henry

    No I did not I was late to the party and dithered about it, I have only a little as insurance because it will always be worth something but paper money can become worthless. It depends on whether we have deflation or hyperinflation and there are arguments both ways with deflation cash is king with hyper inflation cash is toilet paper

  11. @RiN – economists are famous for arguing between themselves, but with themselves is a new one. Make your mind up. Is it to be hyperinflation or depression?

  12. Lib/Dems on 9%. Is this their conference boost?

  13. That Ashcroft polling is here

    http://www.lordashcroft.com/news/18092011_lordashcroft_sundaytelegraph_leadershipresearch.html

    AW

    “showing smaller leads since mid-August, dropping from 8-9 point leads to leads”

    Since August 5th (hardly mid August) there have been precisely TWO 9% Labour leads !

    Henry

    “IMO any poll showing the LDs on a mere 9% cannot be trusted.”

    Brilliant- I admire your chutzpah ! Never give up the faith that’s what I say…..

    Amber

    yes a very nice change in the Labour ST YG polling- best since the populist boost for Dave due to the riots in mid August.

    Could this be the start of an uptick I wonder. We shall see.

    ComRes m.o.e. clearly 8-)

  14. @Amber

    “I’m highlighting this poll as the start of a new trend. Where Sunday YG’s go, the other polls seem to follow.

    Conference coverage might make a fool of me but I’m willing to risk it & say this is a post Libya, turning point for Labour.”

    And here you were this time last week saying the Sunday YG was rigged in favour of Conservatives.

    GSOH as they say…..

  15. China looks very wobbly at the moment and I don’t think it will be too long until we see a shock from the east. They are now openly talking about their own property lending inspired crash and estimates suggest that vulnerable debts could amount to 30% of GDP, bringing a banking crisis there as well.

    Apart from the impact on the Chinese economy, such an event would mean the Chinese would need to withdraw support from the western bond markets to shore up their own defences. It’s a really grim prospect, but getting closer by the day.

    We’re seeing the conjunction of so many different events now and they are all pulling us in the same direction.

  16. @ Old Nat

    “I don’t know about other countries, but in Scotland it is normal practice to put suggested legislation on most topics out to consultation before the Bill is drafted, to allow the people to have their say in advance.

    We call it democracy.”

    Yes. At the risk of asking for the “I’m an Amendment to be” cartoon, I’m curious as to what a formal consultation is. Like what goes into it, is it like a series of hearings? Or is it like a formal research study and report to Parliament? Or is it an open forum where proposed legislation is open to public comment? Or is it some kind of mixture? Or

    And when a formal consultation is announced, how likely is it that the consultation produces results that the government wants? For example, Tony Blair hypothetically announces a “formal consultation” on whether to require national ID cards. The consultation comes back saying that they’re needed and explains how to implement it.

    Sorry to ask all this but I am genuinely ignorant as to this process.

  17. Allan Christie

    Most posters are either tucked up safely in bed or out partying by this time, so good to see a few posts still trickling in, particularly your words of encouragement Allan.

    your comment ‘ Lib/Dems on 9%. Is this their conference boost?’

    This is just our pre-conference boost, just wait for our post conference boost; we are hoping to hit double figures.

  18. Alex

    I’m not an economist, I have read the various arguments. But we are in a new situation, at the moment be have bi-flation, inflation in the things we need but deflation in the things we want. I expect this to continue for a while and get worse as folk buy up anything with guaranteed value. It could go over into hyperinflation if enough money is printed, and once it starts it would be difficult to stop. But deflation is where the economy wants to go and would go without intervention. I’m coming to the view that the two states are merely two sides of the same coin. I do sometimes regret not going to imo and studying economics but I still can’t see how it would have led to a job I actually wanted to do.

  19. Alec

    ‘China looks very wobbly at the moment and I don’t think it will be too long until we see a shock from the east.’

    Its always good to hear from you Alec and your latest cheering news. We are hoping for some substantial rise in exports to China and so if they are having problems it will hit us bad. Hopefully it is not as bad as you fear.

    I was thinking of going to bed, but perhaps I shall just stay up and worry.

  20. SoCalLiberal

    Consultations are published online with a set period for responses. They cover not only legislation but also regulations (which are usually Civil Service suggested changes).

    These are the current consultations

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Consultations/Current

    It may be that no one has any views on ” the addition of the fertiliser Polyhalite to Schedule 1 of The Fertilisers Regulations 1991″ :-) but it also maybe that someone out there has very good reason for that not to happen, and it avoids inappropriate regulations going through “on the nod”.

    Similarily with legislation. The same sex marriage consultation is here

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/09/05153328/0

    The Government outlines what is minded to do, then sets a series of questions – the answers to which allows them to frame the legislation better.

  21. SoCalLiberal
    Consultations are published online with a set period for responses. They cover not only legislation but also regulations (which are usually Civil Service suggested changes).
    These are the current consultations
    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Consultations/Current
    It may be that no one has any views on ” the addition of the fertiliser Polyhalite to Schedule 1 of The Fertilisers Regulations 1991? but it also maybe that someone out there has very good reason for that not to happen, and it avoids inappropriate regulations going through “on the nod”.
    Similarily with legislation. The same sex marriage consultation is 8th down on that list (I forgot I couldn’t post two links so I went into moderation!)

    The Government outlines what is minded to do, then sets a series of questions – the answers to which allows them to frame the legislation better.

  22. Alex

    China is a worry but they have an advantage in that they can take dictatorial action. But that could be a disadvantage, their building of ghost cities sounds like Keynes gone stack raving bookers.

  23. RiN

    “stark raving bookers.”

    Would those be Orange Bookers? :-)

  24. Old Nat

    I know you like intercine warfare, but really?

    I will not rise to it, I have irritated my comrades enough

  25. RiN

    I couldn’t resist! :-)

  26. That Ashcroft poll is amazing:

    “Reforming welfare to stop scroungers and cut benefit dependency”

    It’s like something you’d expect from an American push poll.

  27. Berious

    So you saw that too, but it’s not so bad if they have a balancing question.

    I think everyone knows what my balancing question would be.

    This is the problem with private polling, it gives some insights but they are looking for the answers that they want

  28. @SoCalLiberal

    You asked “…At the risk of asking for the “I’m an Amendment to be” cartoon, I’m curious as to what a formal consultation is…”

    I should be able to reel this stuff off, but…well, let’s talk through an example. Let’s say the Government wants to make everybody called “Mark” to wear a cerise shirt. How does it do that?

    1) Green paper
    The Government publishes a document with a green cover (hence the name) floating the idea: “Hey, let’s make everybody called “Mark” to wear a cerise shirt. Whaddya think?” People make their views known.

    2) White paper
    The Government publishes a document with a white cover formalising the proposal: “The Government intends to make a law making everybody called “Mark” wear a cerise shirt.”

    3) First reading
    The Government prints up a document called “The Making Everybody Called Mark Wear A Cerise Shirt Bill 2011” and introduces it in the House of Commons

    4) Committee, Second Reading
    These discussion stages make the document tightly defined (“Mark” not “Marc” nor “Mick”, “cerise” not “cherry” nor “pink”, “shirt” not “cardigan” nor “sweater”) and add any amendments necessary to make a majority of MPs vote for it.

    5) Third Reading
    The MPs vote on it and if a majority vote for it, it goes to the House of Lords.

    6) House of Lords
    The Lords discuss it and vote on it (and can send it back to the HoC if amended) If the Lords OK it, it gets sent to the Queen

    7) Crown
    The Crown signs it and it becomes a law called “The Making Everybody Called Mark Wear A Cerise Shirt Act 2012”.

    …and that is how a law gets made in the United Kingdom.

    Your specific question resolves around the formal consulation process, which is part of the Green Paper. Interested parties (local authorities, interest groups, companies, police/judiciary, health care providers, ordinary citizens, etc) make their views known at this point. It isn’t structured: it can range from formal presentations to tea-and-biscuits to just reading letters. But oddly enough, the Government does do it, generally speaking.

    Regards, Martyn

    h ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/82326.stm
    h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/careandsupportreform/what-green-paper
    h ttp://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/green-papers/
    h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acts_of_Parliament_in_the_United_Kingdom
    h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_paper
    h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_paper

  29. @SoCalLiberal

    I’ve answered your question about consultation but it’s in moderation for reasons not known to me: no doubt Anthony will clear it in due course.

    Regards, Martyn

  30. @ Sergio

    And here you were this time last week saying the Sunday YG was rigged in favour of Conservatives.

    GSOH as they say…..
    ——————————————-
    The h@cking kid new s/he was rumbled & ran away.

    GSOH was entirely the point of last week’s comment. It’s how I cheer myself up. :-)

    Rob Sheffield was first to notice the Sunday YG as the harbinger of things to come. He spotted that it trended down before the other YG’s & where it lead, ComRes, Populus & Mori all followed – certainly for Labour & Tory.

    LD is a slightly different kettle of fish. I tend to stay away from forecasting that hot potato.
    8-)

  31. Amber

    I knew you realised that SOH is the key to UKPR, but was just checking….unfortunately I haven’t worked out how to do the smilies (and no I am not in my 70s)

    PS don’t know if you noticed but I called the widening lab lead yesterday….no-one noticed as usual……

  32. As I predicted, the positive feelings left by the holidays are wearing off. Looking at the running averages rather than the daily polls, Labour has been trending up, Con down, since the start of the month, so that the Labour lead has increased by nearly 2 since the holidays ended.

    Although there might be some temporary blips during the conference season, I think we’ll once again be looking at regular Labour leads of 7-8 (at least) come mid-October.

  33. @ Robin

    come mid October, when there isn’t going to be an election, but fun to speculate nonetheless.

  34. @ Sergio

    PS don’t know if you noticed but I called the widening lab lead yesterday….no-one noticed as usual……
    —————————————-
    Nice 1; I’m sorry I didn’t respond to it; I was probably too busy debating (aka bickering) with Colin.

    Smileys are easy when you know how. I am going to put spaces so you can see the characters but don’t use spaces when you want the icon.

    : ) smiley. :)
    ; ) winking smiley. ;)
    8 ) Amber Star/ Joe Cool smiley. 8)

    Roger Mexico knows loads more. I think p ) or q ) gets one with a tongue p) q) let’s see, if I’m right.

  35. let’s see, if I’m right.
    ————————
    Nope, you’ll have to ask Roger Mexico how to make smiley stick his tongue out on wordpress. :-)

  36. Amber

    http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies

    Naturally, as a Nat in the current climate, I only know :-) .

    For most of my time in politics, I only knew :-(

  37. Ashcroft’s leadership thingy. David Cameron = Action man doll was chosen by lots of the focus group. How I laughed; my brothers had Action man dolls, they have no… okay, let’s just say they are anatomically incorrect.

    I don’t know what Ed will think of his: An incredibly cute kid in a suit, holding a mobile phone. Women are more inclined to like Ed, of course.

    Men are more in favour of DC; they see DC as a ‘family man’ who they can aspire to copy, the action man doll, a bull in a china shop & Churchill (statesman who’ll get chucked out when the crisis is over). I think DC has better PR skills than Churchill, so maybe not. :-(

    Ed has the cute kid in the suit, cloudy skies (because folks aren’t sure what he’s about), a row of nice looking terraced houses (representing the belief that Ed is on the side of ordinary people & can help solve their problems) & a picture of light at the end of the tunnel – nobody needs any help interpreting that one.

    Nick Clegg – you don’t want to know. Don’t even go to the linked site, if you are LD; it will just depress you.
    8-)

  38. @ Old Nat

    :-)

    I wonder what pictures Ashcroft’s focus groups would’ve picked for Alex Salmond…. Any suggestions?

  39. Amber

    Perhaps, they might have seen Salmond as the pre-2004 Desperate Dan?

    Certainly they would have seen Iain Gray as the post 2004 version. “Desperately” unkind as Iain Gray is better than that, but you asked for perceptions.

    To be really unkind (as you know I can be :-) ) Salmond would be eating the Dandy’s version of cow pie, while the Labour Party were eating the American meaning of that term.

  40. Amberstar

    ‘Nick Clegg – you don’t want to know. Don’t even go to the linked site, if you are LD; it will just depress you’.

    Too late; been there, done it.

    Ashcroft of course misinterprets ‘puppet on a string’ to be a weakness rather than recognising that this reflects Europe and our glorious leader’s enthusiasm for the great EU institution. ‘Puppet on a String’ was the pinnacle of UK’s success in Europe with Sandie Shaw’s historic victory in the Eurovision Song Contest. Likewise NC will lead his Party to victory in the European Elections, and ultimately the GE.

    It is 3 in the morning, what do you expect, sanity?

  41. @ Henry

    Likewise NC will lead his Party to victory in the European Elections, and ultimately the GE.
    ————————————
    Will he do it without shoes though? Because I think the shoe thing might be where he’s going wrong :-D

  42. @ Old Nat

    I’d bet on a haggis being the visual of choice for Alex Salmond. Iain Gray – Subway sandwich :roll:

  43. Amberstar
    ‘Will he do it without shoes though? Because I think the shoe thing might be where he’s going wrong.’

    Good point, you certainly have a very professional eye for detail (old audit skills resurfacing?) Its the one thing Cliffie overlooked and we all know what happened to him.

  44. @ Amber Star

    “I’d bet on a haggis being the visual of choice for Alex Salmond. Iain Gray – Subway sandwich”

    You know, I like Subway sandwiches. When I was a kid, they were part of my elementary school’s Wednesday hot lunch. I can still remember my excitement and remember the taste. Wednesday quickly became my favorite day of school.

    Of course now that I’m an adult, I really don’t care for subway sandwiches. I feel like I ate one just about every night during my 1L year and got sick of them.

  45. @ Old Nat

    “Consultations are published online with a set period for responses. They cover not only legislation but also regulations (which are usually Civil Service suggested changes).”

    So it’s kind of like “notice and comment.” That’s what we have for all proposed regulations in Administrative Law. It’s interesting that you have them for proposed legislation.

  46. @ Old Nat

    “To be really unkind (as you know I can be ) Salmond would be eating the Dandy’s version of cow pie, while the Labour Party were eating the American meaning of that term.”

    I don’t know what the American meaning of the term actually is. But have you seen the movie The Help yet? I saw it with my friend tonight (seriously one of the best movies I’ve seen in years). Because there is a great scene in that movie I’m reminded of by what I think you’re saying.

  47. @ Martyn

    “I’ve answered your question about consultation but it’s in moderation for reasons not known to me: no doubt Anthony will clear it in due course.”

    I look forward to reading it when it clears.

    It can be like the English version of “I’m an Amendment to be” :)

  48. Very pleased with Alexander’s announcement of additional tax inspectors. Assuming it is genuine and not some sort of “give with one hand take away with the other” trickery.

    Whatever one thinks tax rates should be, I think we can all coalesce around the idea that the rich should actually s**ding well pay them. I know from experience that the HMRC’s approach to tax evasion is lacklustre to say the least.

  49. Henry

    Allan Christie

    Most posters are either tucked up safely in bed or out partying by this time, so good to see a few posts still trickling in, particularly your words of encouragement Allan.

    your comment ‘ Lib/Dems on 9%. Is this their conference boost?’

    This is just our pre-conference boost, just wait for our post conference boost; we are hoping to hit double figures.
    _________________
    Henry.

    I look forward to the “Post Conference boost”… Double figures!! Yes I agree, 9.5%. ;)

  50. What do you call 5 Lib/Dems in a mini?

    (Liam McArthur,Tavish Scott ,Willie Rennie ,Alison McInnes and Jim Hume) :)

1 2