The monthly online ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 38%(nc), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 11%(nc), Others 13%(+2). No significant change in itself, but it fits into the general pattern of dropping Labour leads, although ComRes’s online polls do tend to produce some of the better results for the Conservatives. The poll also has ComRes’s leadership rating questions, and like MORI and YouGov previously, they show the boost Ed Miliband recieved from hackgate having largely disappeared.

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. YouGov tend to show some of the larger Labour leads, but like other companies are also showing smaller leads since mid-August, dropping from 8-9 point leads to leads of 2-6 points of late. As usual I’ll have a more detailled post on the YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow when the tables are up.

Finally the Sunday Telegraph is reporting some Populus polling for Michael Ashcroft (at least, I assume it was Populus – they usually do Lord Ashcroft’s polling for him). I haven’t had chance to look properly at this yet, but Ashcroft’s report is online here.


62 Responses to “New ComRes, YouGov and Populus(?) polling”

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  1. When Angela Merkel fails to obtain approval in Germany for bailout of various Euro countries it won’t really matter what economic policies the UK has or what the polls are like. Once you get to a position where the PIGS are defaulting, there will be a massive banking crash. If you read some of the European press, you will see that these are real fears. In parts of Spain for example, even the Police are threatening a walk out (sick,as strike not allowed) because they have not been paid in months. The local government responsible for paying them, has run out of money. This is happening throughout parts of Europe.

    Not sure all this economic retrenchment across the west will bring about a more stable position. Once you start the unwinding process of a heavily debt laden world, you can cause unintended problems. If you don’t have a stable financial position, there is no way you will have any sizable investment taking place and the banks will be in a precarious position.

    Think the western economies need to get together to come up with a plan to stabilise the financial system, with debts being paid off over a longer period. This will relieve some of the pressure and enable targeted investment to take place. The only way western economies will get out of the current position, is by getting growth going, so they have more money to pay off the debts. There is no point straggling the system and then having defaults to deal with.

  2. Leadership ratings (yougov)
    Cameron -8 (+2)
    Miliband -27 (-1)
    Clegg – 42 (+3)

    Weighted against past 4 weeks –
    Cameron -9.1 (+0.8)
    Miliband -25.3 (-1.5)
    Clegg -43.4 (+1.2)

    Not much change, except Cameron’s leadership seems to be trending up while Miliband’s is trending down.
    Clegg has alternated between -42 and -45 for the past few weeks, so no change yet?

  3. We had a ‘Which government would be best for the country?’ question this week-
    Only change was -1 for both Con and Lab majorities – both to DK.

    With DK’s removed –
    Majority Con – 36.3 (-0.3)
    Con/Lib – 11.3 (+0.3)
    Lab-Lib – 15 (+0.3)
    Majority Lab – 37.5 (-0.3)

    Weighted against 6 weeks (last 3 polls)
    Majority Con – 36.2 (+0.6) Trending Up
    Con/Lib – 11.1 (-0.5) Trending Down
    Lab/Lib – 14.8 (+0.2) Trending Slightly Up
    Majority Lab – 38 (-0.2) Trending Slightly Down
    Seems the movement recently has been Con/Lib to Con and Lab to Lab/Lib.

  4. @ R Huckle

    The only way western economies will get out of the current position, is by getting growth going….
    ——————————————————–
    Or by taxing the wealthy; freezing & taxing/ confiscating their assets if necessary. It’s no coincidence that some of the wealthiest individuals are offering to pay more tax. They want to keep the system that’s allowed them to be wealthy i.e. avoid a financial meltdown & the change which would inevitably follow.
    8-)

  5. Yougov figures weighted against past 30 days (vs last week) –
    Con 36.8 (+0.2)
    Lab 41.8 (-0.2)
    Lib 9.5 (+0.1)
    Con still trending up, Lab still trending down, Lib stabilising at 9.5 (up from 9.4).

    Over the course of a month we’ve gone from a weighted lead of +7.6 to +5.
    And it looks like that Labour lead is still shrinking.

    Yougov weighted against past 7 days (vs last week)
    Con – 36.8 (-0.2)
    Lab – 41.5 (+0.2)
    Lib – 9.5 (+0.2)
    Figures showing possibility of Con peaking at 37, Lab possibly working back up from low of 41, Libs showing *broadly* no change.
    Compared to a month ago, the Labour lead has gone from 7.7 to 4.7.

    Unweighted weekly figures –
    Con – 36.6 (-0.4)
    Lab – 41.6 (nc)
    Lib – 9.6 (+0.4)

    Weekly figures weighted against past 4 weeks –
    Con 36.9 (+0.1) Still Trending up
    Lab 41.6 (-0.2) Still Trending down
    Lib 9.5 (+0.1) Up and down the past few weeks

  6. Amber

    I think the wealthy who are asking to pay more tax are worried about the free market solution to the problem of excessive inequality

  7. @Amberstar

    “Or by taxing the wealthy; freezing & taxing/ confiscating their assets if necessary. It’s no coincidence that some of the wealthiest individuals are offering to pay more tax. ”

    Government of all colours will always provide legal ways for wealth creators or just wealthy (inherited) to avoid tax. I remember seeing a documentary on the British Virgin Islands, where hundreds of billions is invested in holding companies. People with huge wealth use complicated measures to move their money around. It is held in company names, for which there is huge secrecy and some of the money is then used to invest through other companies. When you look at some of the Private Equity (PE) firms who buy up many companies during a downturn, where do they get their money from ? If you wanted to find out who invested in some of the PE’s, how would you find out. I have never seen this publicly listed anywhere. Another way people hide money is the complicated use of trusts.

    So I think you can issue many extra tax measures, but you won’t receive as much revenue as you think. Those with the money, will find ways of moving it offshore before they get caught.

    In regard to Politics and foreign ownerships of UK companies, I saw this video on Sky which made me smile. Shame Question Time is not like this.

    http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16072029

  8. “In regard to Politics and foreign ownerships of UK companies, I saw this video on Sky which made me smile. Shame Question Time is not like this.”
    If QT were like that, John Prescott would represent Labour every week. ;)

  9. @Old Nat – “Salmond would be eating the Dandy’s version of cow pie”

    Off topic, but for a rare glimpse into the recesses of my psychology ;) ; Salmond always seems to conjour up (movie trope?) the air of a well-fed son of the butcher during war-time rationing.

    I realise his parents were civil servants, but I can’t seen shake the mental picture.

  10. I bumped into Alex Salmond once in a bookies in London near Page Street. He looked a lot like the rest of us punters…studying the form on the walls, pretending to know what was going to happen, and then losing our money.

  11. Tinged

    We don’t have a Prescott, so that kind of QT would be a straight fight between the blues and reds, of course we used to have cyril, he was a real heavy weight and tough with it. But now all our people are nicey nice

  12. @NickP

    Perhaps it’s his version of the Brown grin, for use on TV.

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