Two new voting intention polls tonight. Firstly ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent has topline figures of CON 37%(+3), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 11%(-2). Changes are from their last telephone poll a month ago, and show a shift towards the Conservatives much as YouGov’s recent polls have and the ComRes online polls have.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%. We’ve had some bouncing back and forth in the daily YouGov poll (though nothing beyond normal margin of error), but it looks as though its starting to bounce around an underlying Labour lead of 3-4 points.

Finally, there was also a TNS-BMRB Scottish poll this morning. It doesn’t appear to have asked voting intention, but did have VI for a Scottish Independence referendum, which found 39% would vote YES and 38% would vote NO. This is apparently the first time TNS have shown “YES” ahead since 2008.


108 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. @Roger Mexico

    “I also thought….” etc

    I fully agree with you about Clegg.

    More generally, he doesn’t seem to have enough nous to understand that a strategy of “differentiation” with the Conservatives will cut no ice so long as it’s confined to words that palpably fail to be matched by deeds. Words not deeds are the stuff of opposition not governing parties. And a leader that signals his unwillingness to enter battle due to the weakness of his position can hardly inspire confidence in his troops.

  2. Roger

    I’ve been thinking about that. It seems that the dems best chance of a real breakthrough were squandered, possibly because of a lack of self belief. With the labour party mortally wounded and the blues still not trusted and a country desperate for change. Added to the public anger over bankers, where both the other parties could have been painted as friends of the bankers, labour because of their record and the blues because of their backers. It beggars belief that the dems didn’t increase their numbers. I think the big mistake was in not actually going for the win. No lib dem heavyweight said “our goal is to be the largest party and form a minority govt with sensible labour and Tory elements” all the talk about a Hung parliament and who would clegg do a deal with could have been deflected with grandiose aspirations of forming a minority govt. But without the leadership projecting a belief in a possible victory it was difficult to get the extra % to vote for them. When the dems were a 30% they should have been saying “just a few more votes and we will be the next govt” hyperbole I know but better to aim high and fail………..

  3. @AW
    “We should expect to see a bump of some sort for the Lib Dems, then a bump of some sort for Labour, then finally a bump for the Tories. Such is the eternal story of polls in September and early October.”

    This year, I suggest that both Labour and the LDs potentially stand to gain a lot more from conference season than the Cons. Labour simply because following a summer of near invisibility they need the exposure to shift the focus back to the coalition’s domestic agenda and also the economy. The LDs because in the absence of Clegg’s unwillingness to rock the boat, they’ll benefit if the delegates force him to. The Cons, on the other hand, must be pleased with how the news agenda is going, so a bit of sycophantic clapping of ministers won’t make much difference.

  4. @ BILLY BOB
    “a pot of message”

    It’s a “mess of pottage” actually.

    Your’s sounds like a New Labour communication device :-)

  5. This might impact a little on Labour’s scoring for a week or two:

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-14804698

    “Ex-Luton MP Margaret Moran facing 21 expenses charges

    Ms Moran also faces six charges of forgery, contrary to the Forgery and Counterfeiting Act 1981, where it is alleged that she submitted forged invoices in support of some of her claims.”

    Or it might just lessen folks taste of rpoliticians in general.

  6. Rob S and Iceman
    Yes, Monbiot deals with the essential issue. I don’t agree that Monbiot is ‘descedited’ at least in the professional sphere.

    I recall that Pickles is merely trying to repeat the efforts of Ridley in the 80s to loosen the planning rules. Oh, and we had the ‘biggest road building programme since the Romans’ (from Parkinson).

    Despite the various protests and backlash in the 90s, I would say that it would only take one government of 5 years to double what we see today.

    Travelling around the country, we see we have a ‘Krispy Kreme, OOT mall, drive by’ edge of town environment, so I doubt whether there is really much more mileage in the issue. The deed was already done and mission accomplished.

    I point out that the latest poll tell us that the voters don’t give a planning fig and if you doubt that, just see the response to any suggestion that people should not drive to work or shop (the majority of trips by car are just a few miles).

    However, the NIMBY middle classes who fled the cities could be a powerful lobby, as I wrote earlier, we’ll see.

  7. crossbat11

    Of course ‘politicians do politics’, my objections to Clegg is that he isn’t doing it very well. In particular he’s behaving in a Brussels or Whitehall way when he should be in Westminster or better still Britain mode. He isn’t a nice consensual, negotiatory environment where people consult properly and come to amicable arrangements (not that EU is much like that at the moment either).

    On reflection, when Cameron’s ministers started going off doing their own thing, especially Pickles and Lansley, should have been when the Lib Dems started creating a fuss. Instead they have endless attempted to triangulate, modify and gloss over differences. People are very suspicious of all politicians at the moment and they might have welcomed a move to differences being discussed in public.

  8. @Colin – “a pot of message”

    Alas, my attempt to brighten up the day with a well known spoonerism has failed. ;)

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