We don’t normally get much in the way of polling on Fridays (I like to consider it my night off!) but today we have Ipsos MORI’s regular Scottish monitor. Voting intentions are as follows:

Holyrood constituency: CON 13%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 49%
Westminster: CON 15%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, SNP 42%

As far as I can tell from the tables Holyrood Regional voting intention wasn’t asked. This is MORI’s first Scottish poll since the Scottish Parliamentary election (I think it’s the first Scottish voting intention poll since then from any company, but don’t quote me on it!) and clearly suggests Alex Salmond and the SNP are enjoying something of a post-election honeymoon.


174 Responses to “First Scottish poll since the Holyrood election”

1 2 3 4
  1. DavidB
    Well, as an anti ‘car economy’ man, i would suggest to them to introduce more trams, but I gather one can better avoid that subject up there.

  2. @ Old Nat

    An investigation into the riots should also look at why there were none in the NE of England as well.
    ————————————-
    It’s the culture – in the NE of England “you get nowt for nowt”. They don’t expect to get anything for free – if they nicked a pair of trainers, the bill or the old bill would be sure to follow in a matter of days. ;-)

  3. Amber

    It probably does need academic research to tease out the differential factors affecting rioting/non-rioting areas. I suspect there are cultural factors as part of that mix, but I would be hesitant about being dogmatic on that.

  4. @ Old Nat

    I am rarely dogmatic about anything. IMO, Academic research can’t be done in a vaccuum. I think it generally starts with assumptions/ theories & then sets out to prove or disprove them. Of course, being equally ‘happy’ to prove/ disprove is of the essence.
    8-)

  5. @amber star & david b
    Cameron is a moron and Salmond is a Scottish moron.
    Right, so many disagree with you, could you be wrong about both ? And wrong about Ed Miliband also?

  6. @ chouenlai

    You are attention seeking ;-)

    I made the point that current polling shows people like Salmond & Cameron style leaders. Nowhere did I say the majority preference is currently for Ed M’s style of leadership.
    8-)

  7. @ Howard

    “Well, as an anti ‘car economy’ man, i would suggest to them to introduce more trams, but I gather one can better avoid that subject up there.”

    I’m that way too. I like cars and all, they’re great. And mass transit needs to be geared to the automobile commuter. But there need to be options beyond cars.

  8. Amber

    “Academic research can’t be done in a vaccuum. I think it generally starts with assumptions/ theories & then sets out to prove or disprove them.”

    Fortunately, I have never been involved in that type of academic research!

    A more normal process is to postulate hypotheses, and design a research project to test whether there is objective evidence to support them. Since causation is virtually impossible to determine, patterns of correlations are normally used to indicate key factors. Fortunately, the SPSS program allows the researcher to investigate not just the correlations that were initially hypothesised, but unforeseen ones as well.

    Of course, the research will then be wholly misunderstood by the media – and misused by politicians! :-)

  9. AmberStar

    “chouenlai
    You are attention seeking”

    Teachers know that attention seeking is best dealt with by ignoring such behaviours, while rewarding good behaviours by giving the child appropriate attention and involvement.

    Effective parents do this instinctively. Any supermarket queue will provide examples of both good and bad parenting skills in this aspect of behaviour management. :-)

  10. @ Amber Star

    ” in the NE of England “you get nowt for nowt””

    Don’t know about the NE-but in Yorkshire the saying is more accurately “tha never gets owt for nowt”,

    The complete context is a phrase I remember well from my Yorkshire childhood:-‘Hear all, see all, say nowt, tak’ all, keep all, gie nowt, and if tha ever does owt for nowt do it for thysen’

    Thought to sum up the archetypial Yorkshireman.

    :-)

  11. “Teachers know that attention seeking is best dealt with by ignoring such behaviours, while rewarding good behaviours”

    It’s a good job that the non teachers on UKPR ignore that advice, or the board’s posts would comprise teachers seeking attention from each other.

    ……………..mind you, come to think of it

    :-)

  12. Colin

    :-)

  13. Amber
    “Do you know that 90% of prescriptions in England are to those who qualify to get them for free? The 10% who pay don’t even cover the admin costs of charging for some & not others. The rational for charging is allegedly to manage demand.”

    I did actually know that amber as I used to work for a major healthcare supplier. It used to be 83/13 but may well have moved. For that reason, I could never understand the fuss about ‘free’ prescriptions. Only those who can afford them effectively pay anyway. And for regulars you can buy an annual ‘season ticket’.

  14. Colin

    The version I knew as a kid was, ‘eat all, sup all, pay nowt’ in place of your, ‘ tak’ all, keep all, gie nowt’, but it may have been the difference between Ridings. I lived in the posh North!

    Alec
    Bought our first house in Sunny Scunny for £4k. Eee, the slag tipping was better than any sunset. The one I remember was , Typhoo put the T in Britain who put the…. you know the rest.

  15. tatgeek @ AMBERSTAR

    “If however the Holyrood percentages are carried to Westminster, Labour return ten MPs…

    We would all say “unlikely”, but there have been a few ‘unlikely’ changes in Scottish politics lately.”

    Which is why we need more polls and why I not only won’t offer an opinion, but I don’t even have an opinion yet, other than that the range of possibilities is greater than it was.

    Perhaps OldNat’s theory about nearness to the last electon affecting VI was right, in which case the SNP will appear to fall back (though nothing will have changed.

    Perhaps this a trend not picked up till a few days before the SP election, but fermenting unobtrusively like yeast, to bubble up all at once. In that case it could continue.

    One poll cannot tell us which. We need at last two more a month apart.

  16. John B Dick

    Did you see that Murdo Fraser is standing for the SCON leadership on a pledge to Bavarianise the Scots Tories? (a topic we have discussed before)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/8739927/Scottish-Conservative-Party-set-to-disband.html

  17. John B Dick

    “One poll cannot tell us which. We need at last two more a month apart.”

    We agree. I suspect that TNS-BMRB will have one in the field soon, and give it to the Herald – something which they seem to do for free! (presumably piggy-backing their political questions on one of their commercial polls).

  18. @ Amber Star

    As long as none of your leaders are wimps, that’s what’s important.

    See e.g.:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/02/obama-halts-epa-regulation-smog-standards_n_946557.html?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec3_lnk2%7C92668

    (Can I just say this s*** annoys me?)

  19. Robert

    :-)

    Wakefield in my case-and definitely not “posh” !

  20. oldnat @ John B Dick

    “Did you see that Murdo Fraser is standing for the SCON leadership on a pledge to Bavarianise the Scots Tories? ”

    Thanks. I knew he was looking in that direction, but I didn’t think he would go that far. I was on the point of writing to him to suggest it.

    It’s the right answer for them but ten years too late. Labour too, and I think Tavish Scott got an indication recently that it wouldn’t have been harmful to ScotLibDems.

    Few organisations will benefit more directly from independence more than a Scottish Conservative Party. If they Bavarianise now, they can seamlessly move to independence.

    Is there any UK law restricting foreign based political parties? Would the unionist parties become illegal overnight if they don’t Bavarianise?

    A couple of years ago I wrote to my Con MSP’s and suggested that they do it. They said they were a Unionist Party.

    The Unionist bit was Ireland originally wasn’t it?

  21. John B Dick,

    “Few organisations will benefit more directly from independence more than a Scottish Conservative Party.”

    I agree. Even leaving the Thatcher/England problems aside, there is a definite gap in Scotland for a moderate centre-right party and there won’t be public pressure for that gap to be filled until Scotland has fiscal independence.

    Thatcherism will not prosper in Scotland in my lifetime, but dry capital-U Unionism? There’s still a definite constituency for it, but that constituency has abandoned the Tories for Labour and the SNP.

  22. Bill
    I can accept an argument for a sensible centre right party in Scotland. All normal democracies require that. But then to argue that party should be Unionist is somewhat silly.

    Why? Look at the SNP polls. The point for creating a Scottish Tory party rather than one which is Unionist is because devolution (at least) is supported by the people.

    . The current Scottish Tory party is Unionist; it is in the same organisation as Westminster Tories. To create a Scottish Party and then say it’s Unionist is risible. And the Press would tear any such party apart.

  23. Jack,

    Hence “capital-U” i.e. the ideology of the 1950s Scottish Unionist Party, rather than unionism (the approval of the UK constitution).

    Devolution is by-the-by, since there are unionists who aren’t anti-devolutionists (i.e. almost everyone outside the 1986 SUP).

  24. Tinged Fringe

    I have started but I havn’t finished it. Hopefully it’ll be here tomorrow, but if not it won’t be Tuesday.

1 2 3 4