Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. Back to a six point Labour lead, but still below the sort of 7-9 point Labour lead we had been seeing.

Perhaps whatever caused the narrowing of the polls is fading again – a purely short term boost, and we’ll have 8 point leads again before long. Alternativly this is just normal margin of error variation around a Labour lead of 4 or 5 points. Time will tell.


154 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%”

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  1. Latest YouGov/Sun poll

    CON 36%

    LAB 42%

    LDEM 10%

    Damn!!

    I was just getting used to the higher number of blue posters as well :D

  2. Assuming it is now 6 points to Labour, there must have been a temporary charge for the Conservatives on the back of the news from Libya.

    Nothing else appears to fit the dates.

  3. Yougov have reported it as “Labour lead still narrow”!
    Is it just me or does that show anti-Labour bias?

    More accurate would have been:
    Labour lead still slightly less wide than it once was.

    Labour lead growing again.

    Tory poll recovery proves somewhat brief.

    Tories fall back to 36%.

  4. Chris Todd

    “Assuming it is now 6 points to Labour, there must have been a temporary charge for the Conservatives on the back of the news from Libya.

    Nothing else appears to fit the dates.”

    Writ large across the various news agendas today was the compulsory redundancy of soldiers (first wave of the defence cuts) and the ceremony to move the location of repatriation of military casualties- because Wooten Basset is being closed down and the land sold off: again as part of the governments austerity approach.

    I thought the government might take a little hit because of this in Saturdays- or perhaps Mondays- polls.

    But perhaps tonight we have already seen a small movement related to this first experience (for months) of cutting being high on the news agenda…..

  5. Back in familiar territory-strangely comforting.

  6. I wonder what the outliers were down to?

  7. @Chris Todd – “Nothing else appears to fit the dates.”

    Bank Holiday?

    On other matters – could this be one to watch? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8736496/Libya-the-minister-the-Tory-donor-and-a-contract-to-supply-oil.html

    Oil company with links to Tory MP and funder of the Tory party gets exclusive deal to trade oil with the rebels without other oil companies being invited to take part. Early days and there could be valid reasons behind the story, but I’ve predicted for a long time that there will be be a major Tory party funding scandal at some stage as they have been so slack with their management of big donors.

  8. Newsnight is covering Rob’s and my issues.

    I don;t see them making the pages of the Sun somehow, :-(

  9. Have not commeted of late but have followed.
    It seems to me that much of the lab lead narrowing is the usual summer effect when the opposition is not in the media much. Libya may have helped a touch and some of the increased lead due to phone hacking scandal has unwound perhaps.
    I think by mid Noveamber we will know where we are and probably back to lab leads a little above current levels which are OK but a long way from decisive

  10. @Howard – I predicted some time ago that planning reform would be a major issue in the next few months. I’m very much with @Rob Sheffield on this. There are problems with the planning system when it comes to big infrastructure projects, and there is a case for reform to enable things like airports and railways to be decided on one way or another much more rapidly, but the government has essentially asked the construction industry to write a planning policy for them.

    I did have to laugh at the Daily Telegraph’s ‘Hands Off Our Land’ campaign. For their readers, it probably really is their land.

  11. alec

    re the exclusive oil deal and Libya…bearing in mind Cameron’s trade mission just before the intervention, can you honestly say you are, even remotely, surprised?

  12. Blanket coverage of the Libyan rebel offensive has been enoiugh to smother other stories… and before that the riots.

    Something similar to the Royal wedding/AV referrendum//May’s bank holidays effect?

    Conference season may reveal more signs of coalition fatigue, and NHS reform (having been kicked into touch since before the local elections) could move centre stage again.

    Confidence generally takes a dive after the summer break, I am told.

  13. Howard

    I watched it.

    I am actually beginning to think that we have (yet) another Cameron U-turn about to transpire.

    I also thought that Greg Clark was terrible. I was under the impression that he was a safe pair of hands as well: not on the evidence of this performance.

  14. Well it did seem that the Libya bounce might be short lived
    especially if Gadaffi is to prove as elusive as Idi Amin
    after his fall from power.

  15. It remains a mystery to me why the Conservative VI is holding up so well:

    1) Covered in the smelly stuff following Murdoch affair;
    2) Refusing to reform the banks when the vast majority of the populace is demanding it;
    3) A donor scandal to boot.

    Personally, I think it is because the media coverage of politics remains so binary, with most people seeing mainly Conservative ministers on TV and Labour opposition spokesmen. It would be interesting to see how VI corresponds with share of time given to each of the parties.

  16. Yes we watched it too, first time for me for at least 5 months or so.

    Terrible reporting. Did the location have a defined development boundary? What were the provisions in the Local Plan for affordable housing on exception sites? Does the location, despite not having a DDB, have a frequent bus service to facilities, c.an the children in the proposed development walk or cycle on safe routes to school,……………etc, etc

    From the served up visual images , I doubt any of these provisions were present, but that of course pails in significance for the reporter who found out the infinitely more important planning factor that Laurie Lee came from the area.

    Luckily the local councillors were apparently not so in awe of the applicant that this outweighed the nimby class who opposed. It was a lesson for the hapless minister who should cease parting his hair down the middle if he wants to convince his core supporters of his case.

  17. pales not pails and the milk of kindness was missing I must admit.

  18. Could be Libya – but it was not a popular intervention and Cameron was not seen to triumph. Maybe it was the riots – with the ‘party of law & order’ getting some backlash support?

    However realities have set in again, the economy is weak, our kids excellent A level results have been trashed and written off as ‘grade inflation’ which is so unreasonable – then there are worries about planning, concern about the Health Service being run-down , 1000’s of kids not getting a Uni place and having to look at £9000 p.a. fees – and the allegations that an adviser to Gove got a nice jobs at a charity promoting ‘free schools’

    Ultimately all will be decided by the economy, as usual, it is not good

  19. Having just seen Greg Clarke put up a poor performance on Newsnight, I am absolutely amazed that the coalition is going down the same road as it did over forests. Why on earth is it about to upset its own supporters with this proposed change in planning guidance – why are the LDs who probably stand to lose more than the Cons going along with this. Which rural and suburban seats held by LDs or Cons are most vulnerable – if the government is not foced to backtrack, this could give Labour an additional 10-15 seats at the next GE and this might be key to an overall majority.

  20. A lot of chickens being counted, given (as AW points out) we are still in MOE.

    I do believe that the Labour lead will widen again though, as the cuts to the armed forces (with the media-friendly imagery of Wootton Bassett) and the upcoming debate on the cuts to the police bring the usual pattern of Opposition talking heads bemoaning the decisions of the government.

    Labour will be hoping that there are no further “unplanned” news developments for a while, to give them the exposure they need to set the scene for conference season.

    I don’t think any of the smaller stories, from planning to abortion to schools policy, will have a particular impact on their own, but they may combine to help Labour sell their product.

  21. @Eric Goodyear – “… having to look at £9000 p.a. fees”

    Was shocked to hear about the hike in Open University fees, which is effectively closing off the opportunity of futher learning for many adults:

    The price of a full-time degree will rise from about £1,400 to an average of £5,000 a year, with a part-time degree going from £700 to £2,500 per year.

  22. Neil A

    “I do believe that the Labour lead will widen again though, as the cuts to the armed forces (with the media-friendly imagery of Wootton Bassett) and the upcoming debate on the cuts to the police bring the usual pattern of Opposition talking heads bemoaning the decisions of the government.”

    Rather- bemoaning the JUDGEMENT of the government….

    Alec

    “I did have to laugh at the Daily Telegraph’s ‘Hands Off Our Land’ campaign. For their readers, it probably really is their land.”

    LOL

  23. I thought, given the comments policy, a more neutral formulation was sensible…

  24. Neil A

    “I thought, given the comments policy, a more neutral formulation was sensible…”

    Yep like writing “the usual pattern of Opposition talking heads bemoaning…” is neutral ;-)

  25. I didn’t say whether I thought they were right or wrong to be bemoaning. You only know that I think they’re wrong because of what you know about my politics….

    Politicians just play the same old games. If Labour had somehow managed to cobble together a government after May 2010, the same bemoaning about cuts would be coming from Opposition talking heads of the Tory persuasion. :)

  26. UKFI have issued a warning that if the government went ahead with the banking reforms previously discussed i.e. separating retail from investment, that the governments stake in Lloyds and RBS would be worth £10bn less. The current holding is already worth half of what was paid.

    Can’t see Cable persuading other ministers that banking reform should take place before the election.

    Also in the news (Independent). Alastair Darling hugely critical of Mervyn King in his book apparently. They wanted to sack him due to mistakes made, but had no suitable replacement to take over a governor of BOE. If some of the things being said about King are true, I cannot believe that he has managed to stay in the job. One allegation made is that King was aware of the problems at Northern Rock about a month before it became public knowlege, but apparently did not act.

  27. Well I think we have to say the YouGov Tory 39 and 1% was a super bliplet..:-)
    Not sure why I was deleted for just sayng hello to my friends Howard and RIN. i was partisan.. They are not same party as me… I am very sad. :-(

  28. Not partisan I meant….

  29. Well, what do I know (very little, some of you will say!). There was I thinking that we were about to see a Tory mini-revival in the polls and no sooner did it flicker into view than we saw Labour leads of 5-6% returning almost immediately.

    I’m surprised at this stick-in-the mud 36% that seems to be the Tory VI share come rain or shine. The glass is half full merchants will point to this static figure as evidence of resilience and stoicism in the face of unrelenting political headwinds whereas the glass is half empty observers may conclude that it’s a rump figure that seems stubbornly unwilling to increase even when favourable political tailwinds like Libya and the hard-line reaction to the riots appear on the scene.

    To a large extent, deep analysis of opinion polls some three and a half years away from an election belongs to silly season politics, but I think we may be entitled to draw the following tentative conclusions: –

    – The Lib Dem mass desertion to Labour that took place in the Autumn of 2010 looks embedded and long lasting.

    – Labour seem to have established a bridgehead of circa 40% without getting out of its political bed.

    – The Conservatives are in a sort of limbo land where so far they’ve avoided widespread public opprobrium but, strangely, have yet to seal any sort of deal with the electorate. Rather spookily, certainly for them, they seem to be stuck in their pre-May 2010 election mode of being viewed with a mixture of uncertainty and mild suspicion by a large number of voters.

  30. What effect did the riots have on the polling figures. I realise the Libyan dates line up as pointed out by some commenters, but the average person would not be aware of the oil contract benefits. I would look closer to home for a reason.

  31. I’d like to see a post riot, London only poll. It seems an age since the last London poll.

    We are also awaiting the Mori Scotland poll. Perhaps they are still desperately searching for a sample of the youth vote!

    London & Scotland could be the deciding factors in the next GE… I want those polls asap!!!
    8-)

  32. @Robert C

    I put it down to the “Things can’t be as bad as it’s made out” effect, with people not yet feeling the worst of the cuts, but thinking the worst is behind us. If so, there’s a significant chance of radical change of VI when households are directly impacted by cuts.

    As I’ve said before, I think the big one is going to be next spring when the “Single Room Rate” restrictions on Housing Benefit move from only requiring under 25s to live in shared housing, to only paying that rate for under 35s. This is one that’s not just going to hit those derided as “the benefits classes”. It’s going to hit a lot of young professionals and skilled workers who were made unemployed because of redundancies, and it’s going to put a huge pressure on “the bank of mom and dad” for a lot of the middle classes too.

  33. @Jayblanc,

    The effects of the “single room rate” will mostly be felt amongst those who are not natural Conservative supporters.

    There are many, many young professionals, especially in the SouthEast, who find they can only afford to live in shared housing anyway. They may well feel it is only equitable that others no longer get for free something which they can’t afford to buy with their income. Those people are (one of) the key target groups for Tory electoral chances.

  34. @Neil A

    Surely if their income is low enough that they could only afford shared housing, they would have been eligible for a portion of housing benefit?

    Or by ‘afford’ do you mean ‘could afford it, but want to spend the money on other stuff’. Or want to live in an expensive area with high quality housing, rather than a commuter belt or sink estate that people on low incomes are expected to live in now.

  35. Amber

    “We are also awaiting the Mori Scotland poll.”

    Hopefully it will be soon. They have released the section on Megrahi

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2851/The-majority-of-Scots-still-disagree-with-decision-to-release-alMegrahi.aspx

    Though they seem rather regretful about the reality of the situation, given that they say “The poll, most of which was conducted before footage from his home in Libya was broadcast this week”. I suspect they thought they might some cash for what turned out to be somewhat dated data.

    Their slides give the % of party supporters and “All” for and against, so one could make some kind of estimate of VI, I suppose. However, since we don’t know whether the VI is for Westminster, Holyrood, or just ID, it doesn’t really help!.

  36. JayBlanc

    People on low incomes now expect to live in houses!!

    Cue Four Yorkshiremen

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eDaSvRO9xA

  37. Judging by spending on the Holyrood election, we may have to consign the LDs to the status of minnows, compared with the big three.

    http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Lib-Dems-39struggled-to-raise.6829454.jp

    £176300 Liberal Democrats
    £132464 Scottish Green Party
    £30319 UK Independence Party (UKIP)
    £12034 All Scotland Pensioners Party
    £9779 British National Party
    £8795 Scottish Socialist Party
    £8196 Respect Party
    £4529 Ban Bankers Bonuses
    £4500 Scottish Unionist Party
    £2758 Socialist Labour Party
    £1865 The Co-operative Party
    £1699 Angus Independents Representatives (AIR)
    £988 Christian People’s Alliance
    £750 Pirate Party UK
    £352 Christian Party “Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship”
    £230 The Liberal Party
    £50 Land Party
    £0 Communist Party of Britain

    Professor Curtice said: “The Greens almost managed to spend as much as the Lib Dems, which says more about the Lib Dems than it does about the Greens.”

  38. I have to say that I don’t think this is intelligent politics:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/sep/02/coalition-opposes-scottish-independence

  39. @ Old Nat

    Wow! You’re using YouTube! :)

  40. SoCalLiberal

    “I have to say that I don’t think this is intelligent politics”

    I have absolutely no objection to the Unionists maintaining exactly that level of inanity!

    A respected Scottish (non-Nationalist) journalist (Iain McWhirter) was on BBC Newsnight Scotland (colloquially known here as Newsnicht) scoffing at the tired old rhetoric being deployed by the LDs (what used to be the Home Rule Party!) who appear to be the only apologists for the Union (in its present form).

    Compare that article with this from an SNP supporting journalist

    http://news.scotsman.com/politics/George-Kerevan-Reform-requires-us.6829467.jp

    I particularly liked his

    “There are those in the SNP – like me – who doubt if a workable confederation with England will emerge, though I’m willing to give it a try. My view is that the Unionist political establishment – witness Mr Moore – is totally capable of looking a gift horse in the mouth.”

  41. SoCalLiberal

    “Wow! You’re using YouTube! :) ”

    But, obviously, only for “old” clips!

  42. @ Old Nat

    “Professor Curtice said: “The Greens almost managed to spend as much as the Lib Dems, which says more about the Lib Dems than it does about the Greens.””

    So I’m actually curious, how do you guys go about financing your elections? Do you have public financing? Do you have big fundraisers where politicians have to go around and beg rich people for money? Are people capped in how much they can donate individually? And do you have PACs? I assume unions can contribute money, can corporations as well?

    (Okay I know I must sound like Miley Cyrus here but you can understand my natural curiosity).

  43. @ Old Nat

    “But, obviously, only for “old” clips!”

    That’s okay, that’s what I use it for too. Sometimes, things just need better videos too. For example, the song “Born this Way” by Lady Gaga is one that I now love. What I realized is that the music video is wrong. Now if only I could make a YouTube video myself (I’m a technological Luddite).

  44. @ Old Nat

    “I have absolutely no objection to the Unionists maintaining exactly that level of inanity!

    A respected Scottish (non-Nationalist) journalist (Iain McWhirter) was on BBC Newsnight Scotland (colloquially known here as Newsnicht) scoffing at the tired old rhetoric being deployed by the LDs (what used to be the Home Rule Party!) who appear to be the only apologists for the Union (in its present form).”

    Well when your opponents are stepping all over themselves, don’t try to stop them. I think that’s the saying anyway.

    I think that Labour’s campaigning against Scottish independence hurt them in the May elections. And it hurt them because it was a distraction that failed to resonate. But I think it also failed because it was basically an f-u to Scots, telling you guys that you’re not capable of being an independent country. I think that just pushes people to favor independence more because the reaction is “oh I can’t now can I? We’ll just see about that.”

  45. IANANTHONYIN WALES

    The Labour lead is very narrow.

    Double digit leads are needed by Labour, at this stage, if they are to form a Government after the next GE.

    The last two elections, 1964 and 1997, when Labour took power as a majority government, saw their leads greatly reduced in the run up to those elections.

    Feb 1974 must, I think, be regarded as an exception, partly because if Heath had not insisted on electoral reform in NI, the Unionists would have remained in the Party, and had more MP’s than Wilson had behind him.

    Heroic bravery by Heath that was, normally forgotten on the mianland of the UK. One Person, One Vote introduced 7 years after the USA had it (LBJ etc)

  46. My weighted figures show the VIs stabilising at 37/42/10, with Labour *possibly* actually falling to 41 (the figure is still trending downward more rapidly than the others are upward).
    Excluding the 39, the latest figures all fit within the 37/42/10 or 47/41/10 with +-1 usual rate of error.

    Just thought I’d put that out there. ;)

  47. What a joy to see the lefties all chipper again after that slight moment of self doubt:-)

    Back to the long haul to 2015

    The morning Sky report from Libya featured an Amnesty International official describing how they found incarcerated civilians in a sealed container-most were dead.
    From what this woman said they have a large body of evidence pointing to war crimes as the rebellion grew in strength.

    I hope they get the chance to take Gadaffi & his gang to the Hague-but he looks like he wants to t6ake Libya down “in flames”. What a madman.

  48. “What a madman.”
    That isn’t very non-partisan.* ;)

    I do think they’ll find Gadaffi soon – and I hope they put him through the same sort of trial they did Saddam, rather than shooting him when they find him.
    They need to show him for the pathetic figure he is.

    * THIS IS A JOKE

  49. I’ve mentioned it a couple of times, but I still thing the Constituencies Bill has the potential to test the Coalition sorely.

    If the work of the boundary commission sends up endangering quite a few Lib Dem seats (they can’t affaor to lose many!), how can they vote for it? Will thay have a change of heart and seek an amendment keeping the number of MPs as 650?

    If so the tories will be hopping mad as I don’t believe the equalisation of size by number of lectors will help them much without that (arbitrary) chop in numbers.

    Will the turkeys vote for Christmas to come twice in 2015?

  50. Nick,
    It was already LibDem policy to go for a seat reduction (IIRC it was a much larger reduction than 50), so they must have been aware for some time that it’d lead to the loss of LibDem seats.
    So I think that they definitely will all vote it through – assuming that the boundaries are fair, in the sense that they don’t (unintentionally) set boundaries that favour certain parties.

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