Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%. This is the lowest Labour lead that YouGov have recorded since back in January, and follows on from a three point lead in the YouGov/Sunday Times poll.
As regular readers will have noted, I don’t normally give much credence to a single poll showing a shift in support – more often than not it is just normal sample variation. Two polls in a row showing a shift looks more meaningful. While it’s not beyond the realms of possibility to get two outliers in a row, and it’s possible that tomorrow will go back to an 8 point lead, it’s starting too look as though the polls are narrowing again.
There’s no overwhelmingly obvious reason for a narrowing in the polls – it seems a bit delayed for a riots or Libya effect – but perhaps they’ve just fed into a perception of things going somewhat better. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.