The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor for Reuters has been published. Topline figures are CON 34%(+2), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 15%(+4). All the main parties are up, and other parties sharply down, but this will be largely a reversion to the mean after a rather odd MORI poll with a unusual sample last month. The Lib Dems are up to 15% – whereas we expect high Lib Dems from ICM, this is unusual for MORI, who for the last five months have had them between 9% and 11%. I’ll add my usual caveat about any unusual shifts in the polls – it may be the sign of something, or may just be a blip. Wait and see if it is reflected in other polling. Full tabs are here.

Incidentally, given I’m normally so ready to be rude about poor newspaper reporting of polls, I should give credit where it is due to the measured and reasonable reporting of the poll by Reuters, which correctly says that the figures are broadly unchanged and that it is too early to say whether the Lib Dem increase indicates a sustained shift in attitude. Entirely correct!

The YouGov/Sun daily polling results yesterday are here. Topline results are CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%. On Libya, the proportion of people thinking the intervention is going well has crept further up: 54% think it is going well, 25% badly. However, suport for the intervention has returned to being pretty evenly split – 39% think it is right, 40% think it is wrong.


251 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Reuters – CON 34, LAB 40, LDEM 15”

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  1. Well, a lot of rebel fighters quite openly said they were prepared to die for a free Libya, but if we assume that every single Libyan who died in the conflict would rather have lived the rest of their lives under the same brutal dictatorship, what does that prove? Even if the death toll turns out to be worse than anyone imagined, the number of Libyans who survived the war vastly outnumber those who died. Put bluntly, the views of the surviving Libyans still vastly outweigh the views of those who died.

    I’ll take your idea that Libyans wanted more attempts at negotiations more seriously when I actually hear a Libyan express that view. For what it’s worth, if I was in a city where the tanks were hours away, the head of state was threatening revenge, and hundreds (if not thousands) of people had already been killed by him, I wouldn’t want to wait and see if saying “pretty please” made things better.

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