MarketingMeans have their latest monthly poll of voting intentions in the South-West region for the The Western Morning News & Western Daily Press (or, at least, most of it – it excludes Poole & Bournemouth). Topline figures with changes from the June/July poll are CON 40%(-2), LAB 21%(-7), LDEM 21%(+5), UKIP 9%(+7), GRN 4%(-1). Full tabs are here.

A big drop in support for Labour, and a recovery for the Liberal Democrats… though I’d add my normal caveat about being cautious about any sudden movement in polls. So far this year MM’s regular South-West poll has been pretty steady and consistent (see below), so this big jump is quite surprising – we’ll have to wait till next month to see if it is sustained.


181 Responses to “New MarketingMeans polls of the South West”

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  1. @ Roger Mexico

    “By the way we had our own complete failure of Laffer Curve economics in the Isle of Man recently, but I’ll save it for later.”

    IoM eh.

    MCA £21,000
    Top Rate IT 20%

    Nice place to be a taxpayer Roger :-) :-) :-) :-)

  2. Tax rates –

    I am not convinced that private individuals have really sufficient income to generate the vast sums of missing revenue required for Western Euopean Liberal democracies to be able to function as the civilised places they are. We need to go where the money is – which is in the hands of multinational corporations who avoid paying tax and who use their status and free markets to skip from territory to terrotory wiothout meeting any obligations to the territories where their wwealth is generated.

    As it happens I think a 50 – 55% upper bracket is about all that seems reasonable even to me as a Socialist. I would hope that such wealthy individuals would them use ther remainder of their wealth to generate income, prosperity and employment amongst their fellow citizens.

    It is how we nail the cash that we need from corporations that will determine the future of civilised and decent welfare and service provision in the future. At the moment we seem to be in a Europe of Dutch auctions and robbing peter when it comes to business taxes. Eventuall we will all be starving and corporations will own everything. And we will lick their boots and thank them for their existence.

  3. Roger M 13.29 etc

    Thanks. I must be very ignorant because I have never heard of Laffer or his curve before.

    So the actual answer to my question, if I can work it out, is Colin and Guido, who represent the entire ‘Right’ in your view. :)

    The rest of it was just a lesson in Laffer curves, including a conspiracy theory that any analysis on this subject done can be safely disgarded if it comes up with the answer you don’t like because it will be done by people who are/are i the pay of 50% taxpayers.

    Just to make it clear, I don’t really mind your answer at all. It just makes me smile because you are so full of detailed and precise analysis a lot of the time – and then you suddenly show that you are human after all and make unsubstantiated statements based on your feelings/bias just like the rest of us mere mortals.

  4. Should read “are in the pay of”, not “are i the pay of”, sorry.

  5. @ NIck Poole

    I have long believed that Cameron knew more about Coulsons time at the NOTW, than he has admitted.

    If it was ever revealed that in January before his departure from No.10 Coulson had admitted to Cameron that he was aware of Hacking, this would mean Cameron had deliberately mislead Parliament.

    I doubt we will ever find out, as I am sure Coulson would not wish to embarass Cameron who had given him a second chance.

    Just my take on this as an indepedent spectator, but I think Cameron could do without all the questions about Coulsons appointment being raised again.

  6. @Iceman

    I think you are right about the increase support for the SNP – they seem to have performed well in govt and are setting the agenda north of the boarder.

    On the Laffer Curve – someone correct me if I’m wrong, but didnt Geroge Bush Snr refer to it as vodoo economics?

  7. partisan though I am, R Huckle, I don’t think Cameron will have known about phone hacking. I think it was a risky and foolish appointment, and there might be a bit of a vetting cover-up going on, but I don’t think Cameron would have been knowingly implicated. Why would he be?

  8. Roger Mexico
    Thanks for link. I was amazed and amused. The following para caught my eye…

    “[DC] has received support from some Tory backbenchers, including Louise Mensch, who likened such a ban to closing a stretch of rail network after an accident.”

    Isn’t LM seen as a potential Con party leader?

    Hmmm

  9. Re: the 50% tax rate, I’m amazed that so many people have strong feelings about it before evidence has shown that it raises revenues. I suppose people have a tendency to focus on nominal rates, rather than actual revenues. It’s another kind of “money illusion” that certain naive people suffer from.

    Anyway, the main advocate of a “Laffer Curve” approach these days is Ed Balls, who wants to raise revenue by cutting taxes.

  10. I suspect that the latest phone hacking revelatioons

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/aug/16/phone-hacking-now-reporter-letter

    will exercise us political geeks, but have virtually no effect on the polls.

  11. On the matter of the additional rate of income tax and whether and how it affects behaviour.

    When the 50p rate was set to start on 6 April 2010, some employers chose to bring forward payment of bonuses that would otherwise be due on or after that date so that payment occurred on or before 5 April 2010. Thus, the recipients paid tax at the higher rate rather than the additional rate.

    Now, let’s project forward…If GO announces the withdrawal of (or reduction in) the additional rate, to take effect from, say, 6 April 2013, some employers will consider amending terms and conditions of empoyment so that any bonues due in say March 2013 becomes due on or after 6 April 2013.

    Current tax law makes such action legal.

  12. @Nick Poole – “I don’t think Cameron will have known about phone hacking.”

    Just my take, but I would have thought a little off the record whispered assurance that “it is all in the past, we’ve nailed down the lid and buried it” (plus plausible deniablity on his part), would have presented some risk, but not enough to outweigh the advantage to Cameron of having Coulson as part of the team.

  13. Knowing that many contributors take an interest in the Big Society (sadly some in a rather cynical way!) I thought this link might be of interest –

    http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/content/whos-who-big-society

  14. MIKE N

    I wouldn’t thought Louise Minsch was a prospective Tory Party leader but I have heard that certain male Tory MPs of a certain age see her prospects quite differently.

  15. Just read an interesting (and amusing) short article on the riots by a well-known psychologist and writer:

    http://www.peoplemanagement.co.uk/pm/blog-posts/2011/08/the-single-biggest-cause-of-rioting.htm?wa_src=email&wa_pub=cipd&wa_crt=fbcomp_1&wa_cmp=pmdaily_150811

  16. re: CLIVE GOODMAN letter

    Having now read this letter it is clearly ‘games up’ time for Andy Coulson. How he can say that he wasn’t aware of hacking when he was instrumental in banning the mention of phone hacking at editorial meetings I fail to see!

  17. @Billy Bob

    @Nick Poole – “I don’t think Cameron will have known about phone hacking.”
    Just my take, but I would have thought a little off the record whispered assurance that “it is all in the past, we’ve nailed down the lid and buried it” (plus plausible deniablity on his part), would have presented some risk, but not enough to outweigh the advantage to Cameron of having Coulson as part of the team.

    I very much doubt that even this happened, in terms of DC handling of the affair it looks very much like appointing him was just a case of bad judgement. I am starting to think that the phone hacking saga etc is feeding in to a growing issue over perceived competence of the govt. 6 months ago I thought the next election would be determined largely by what happens with the economy – now I am not so sure. It normally takes a good few years for a perception of incompetence to be attached to a govt – but this government seems to be fast tracking it.;-)

  18. DavidB
    “I wouldn’t thought Louise Minsch was a prospective Tory Party leader but I have heard that certain male Tory MPs of a certain age see her prospects quite differently.”

    Tory totty? whatever is the world coming to.

  19. MIKE N

    Just back in from tennis, responding to Society ceasing to tolerate the endemic disorder in too many schools:

    The ‘1945’ may be a clue to my stance. I was born ten years later. Bevin, Attlee, Cripps and Morrison were giants.

    My prescription.

    i. Plenty of selective schools, on ability, at the age of 13.

    ii. Pupils who regularly, in class, assail the teacher with appalling language need to be permanently excluded, along with the physically violent.

    iii. Day-centres for these ‘laggards’ need to be re opened.

    iv. Bad parents, as the WEBBS argued in 1909, need to be compelled to become educated in how to do it.

    v. Charity-supported Public Schools and Independent schools should open up 20% of their places to full scholarships.

    vi. Frank Field’s 1995-1997 Welfare package, which had £10 billion start up costs- modelled on the Singapore model should be legislated for.

    That is a start.

    Hobbes: we need a Leviathan, or life is nasty, brutish and short.

    Rousseau: Man must be forced to be free.. to obey the general will.

  20. the one big area where Cameron is vulnerable over Coulson is over who recommended the original appointment. Brookes at the parliamentary heaing went out of her way to say she wasn’t involved and that it was a matter of public record that it was Osborne, and in almost the same words Cameron said the same thing and quoted Brookes in Parliament as though her word was helpful to prove anything.

    I think Coulson’s appointment has NI fingerprints all over it and the real dodgy stuff was the “appropriate” conversations over the bSkyb bid. If that ever reemerges it could hurt him.

    That’s why the questions over the appoitment and the lack of developed vetting are important, and probably why Cameron’s office won’t answer them.

  21. ChrisLane1945
    Some good suggestions there, but this one caught my eye.

    “Pupils who regularly, in class, assail the teacher with appalling language need to be permanently excluded…)

    You mean, like, you know, innit?

  22. MIKE N
    Great response, the ones who say ‘you know.. innit’ get Grade A’s in GCSE and Grade B’s at A Level.

    As you probably know, nasty words beginning with f, w, etc etc.

    The teacher comes out of that class feeling demeaned, morale lowered.

    In the words of the former trade union leader Nigel de Gruchy (NASUWT): the best teachers become good, the good teacher became minimally competent, while the competent become bad teachers.

    Corporal punishment also not a bad thing, when regulated, I think. So when a boy tells a young teacher where to go off , the cane is used, to deter him and his mates. Brutal, but it works.

    (I think I have just failed my job interview)

  23. Nick Poole

    “That’s why the questions over the appoitment and the lack of developed vetting are important, and probably why Cameron’s office won’t answer them.”

    My take on it is that the Perm Sec at No 10 decided to use the pretext of savings costs to justify not subjecting AC to DV. This decision was probably driven by pressure from GO’D (you couldn’t make that up) to welcome the new PM and show willingness and a co-operative attitude rather than being seen as the civial service being stubborn etc.

    We should also note that the PM is the Q’s appointment.

  24. Whoever’s decision it was should probably resign.

  25. ChrisLane1945

    Appalling treatment of teachers by puils is not a knew phenomenon. Nor is it restricted to not-so-posh schools.

    I recall that a particualr teacher at the grammar school I attended (in the 60s) was subjected to appalling treatment by pupils. The poor guy had to leave.

  26. Repost in view of typos

    ChrisLane1945

    Appalling treatment of teachers by pupils is not a new phenomenon. Nor is it restricted to not-so-posh schools.

    I recall that a particular teacher at the grammar school I attended (in the 60s) was subjected to appalling treatment by pupils. The poor guy had to leave.

  27. i went to a grammar school from 1970 to 1977. It was a war of attrition with the teachers most of the time, and a couple of the weaker teachers failed the test absolutely. It was an all boys school and I can tell you no prisoners were taken.

    I got slippered and I can promise you it didn’t affect my behaviour one jot.

    One thing that I have seen discussed: primary schools are nearly all female teaching staff nowadays. Do you think that means boys lack a male authority figure especially if they have none or feckless at home?

    Or do I sound like a blue Telegraph reader?

  28. @Iceman – “I am not convinced that private individuals have really sufficient income to generate the vast sums of missing revenue required……”

    And you’re absolutely correct – we don’t. Total UK debt is something like 250% of income (GDP), and while we could possibly dig our way out of this very slowly by relying on a mix of cuts, taxes on income and growth, the experience of austerity measures so far around the world is not cause for optimism.

    In many way the 50% income rate is a red herring – the wealthiest people have proportionately far more wealth than income, and wealth is where the money would come from to reduce the debt an help us control the deficit. We’ve progressively loaded taxes more and more onto income and spending, allowing wealth to accumulate under much more lenient taxation rules. This is where the money is.

    On phone hacking – Coulson is in the mire today with the new revelations, and this won’t be great news for Cameron, but the MUCH bigger story is the blow struck by solicitors Harbottle & Lewis against both James and Rupert Murdoch.

    The solicitors have flatly contradicted statements made by the Murdochs and the notion that they were asked to provide an assessment of the extent of phone hacking. Their letter was repeatedly used as evidence that NI had searched for and not found widespread evidence of wrongdoing, but the brief they gave to H&L was extremely limited and there was no way NI could make this inference from the assurances given to them by H&L.

    As H&L have a professional reputation to protect they won’t let this go (they are said to be furious with the Murdochs) and this bit of the story could well be terminal for James, possibly also Rupert.

  29. I see that Europe’s growth looks in a bad way with Germany’s 0.1% following France’s flatlining. This could have negative impact on UK who looks to EU in particular for exports. However, at least it makes GO’s 0.2% look much better.

    It is really important that UK can ensure that it maximises its exports to rapidly growing economies such as China and India, as well as maintaining or increasing exports to USA.

  30. But it’d possible that the Murdochs, Coulson, Brookes etc could bring down Cameron.

    The police certainly don’t seem to like him much any more.

  31. Anyone else smell burning toast?

  32. I wonder if the 65% remanded in custody for crimes like stealing six pack of lager (as opposed to released pending hearing) will start to look like massive, collective over-reaction by the courts.

    It’s usually 10% for same level of offence apparently. Legal types are saying the criteria are about whether they are likely to attend of reoffend if let out…i think those criteria are being ignored.

    There’s a danger here of igniting anger again.

  33. @Henry: It is really important that UK can ensure that it maximises its exports to rapidly growing economies such as China and India, as well as maintaining or increasing exports to USA.

    I was astonished to hear that Ireland was our biggest export market.

    Ireland, for fudge’s sake!

  34. MIKE N and NICK POOLE.

    My catholic grammar school in South London was also bad for poor teachers. But we loved the good ones, though we did not always show it. The saturday sport, especially was great, now absent from state schools)

    NICK: The lack of male teachers is a big problem.

    The war of attrition between teachers and pupils is natural, we expect that.

    NOW, very good teachers are destroyed.
    So, as the Select Committee has found, more than 30% of PGCE students qualify and then do not teach.
    Then the average teacher lasts four years having started the job.

    And the poorer children are the ones who suffer

    ‘Our People’ as Ernest, Nye and Hubert used to say.

    A proof, and a cause also, as OLD NAT has said on here, is that our political class makes very sure that their own offspring are not exposed to these conditions.

    Bernie Grant in the 1996 PLP meeting called to discuss Harriet Harman’s choice of a Kent Grammar School, said that the worst thing he ever did was to send his children to the local school- on ideological grounds.

    In State Primary schools increasing numbers of lessons are given by ‘TA’s (teaching assistants- on £10 an hour).

    Cover supervisors, on a bit more money, take lessons for absent teachers. Chaos ensues

    The ‘Big Society’ must involve schooling I would have thought.

    WOODSMAN: YES, burning toast in the air.

  35. ummm

    (can someone explain the toast thing to me? Don’t want to appear dumb…)

  36. “I wonder if the 65% remanded in custody for crimes like stealing six pack of lager (as opposed to released pending hearing) will start to look like massive, collective over-reaction by the courts.”

    I wonder if there are going to be a lot of successful appeals before all of this is finished — a central principle of the rule of law being that it should be applied equally. Yes, the circumstances were unusual, but for a non-violent petty theft, an appeals court might well see the chaotic atmosphere of a riot as a mitigating factor, rather than an aggravating one.

    (As far as I remember, under English law judges and magistrates are allowed to “make an example”, but that only goes so far ….)

  37. My catholic grammar was St Joseph’s College Beulah Hill SE19, now a Comp and I’m told a war zone (although I don’t know). That part of London was a leafy suburb when my granfather and grandma lived there…now it’s a Greater London horror story (Upper Norwood).

    My teachers were half De La Salle brothers in black frocks some of whom were certifiable and sadistic. In a war it helps when you have some cruel heartles b*stards on your side.

    Whereabouts was your South London grammar school?

  38. Oops, forgot attribution — was quoting Nick Poole’s comment above.

  39. Nick P –

    Toast. n.
    2. Slang. One that is doomed, in trouble, or unworthy of further consideration.

    that was all ;-)

  40. woodsman

    I wondered if that was the sense. If so…who is toast? Cameron? Murdoch? Coulson?

    Croydon? Europe? the Western world?

  41. Well, exactly – So many to choose from!

  42. chrislane1945

    I’d love to see the research evidence that your “prescription” is based on.

    Given that the “research” evidence that was the basis for the introduction of the tri-partite system was fabricated (and its conclusions strangely reminiscent of the conclusions of the 1866 Taunton Report), one can’t be too careful.

  43. Interesting day on the hacking front. Still don’t think there was anything to cause extra danger for Cameron, although it sounds like Goodman could be an interesting prosecution witness in future for certain other figures in the case.

    The thing that made me smile most was the Harbottle story. What they are basically saying is that News International paid them them to read a handful of documents and give an extremely limited (virtually worthless, they are essentially claiming) opinion on a very narrow question.

    For which they charged £10,000!

  44. Nick Poole

    “Coulson?”

    If the statements in the Goodman letter are correct, then there would be a prima facie case for Coulson to be charged with perjury.

    At the Sheridan trial, these two answers by him are contradicted by Goodman –

    asked about a House of Commons committee report which had claimed that the NotW “turned a blind eye” and “at worst actively condoned” bugging and hacking in the newsroom. Coulson replied: “I don’t accept there was a culture of phone hacking at the NoW. There was a very unfortunate, to put it mildly, case involving Clive Goodman. No one was more sorry about it than me; that’s why I resigned.”

    Mr Coulson told the court that he had left after one reporter on the paper was convicted of a crime and he had “taken the ultimate responsibility and stepped down.” Asked what this crime was the witness stated that it involved “illegal phone hacking” and that he had “no knowledge of it.”

    Whether a perjury case in Scotland would affect polls in England, I doubt.

    It’s difficult to see how the residual Tory vote in Scotland would be affected by anything other than some mass sexual misdemeanour by the Cabinet. :-)

  45. NICK POOLE.

    Very small world. Fides Intrepida, 1966-1973.

    I think the Brothers and the lay teachers used to win the attrition battle most of the time.

    That is why my Dad sent me on the train to Norwood Junction and then the bus up the hill.

    Norbury, Grecian Villa, First and Second Meadow. Crown Point.

    Let us remember…

  46. Of course, without some serious corroboration, no prosecution based on Goodman’s evidence would ever succeed.

  47. For years older?

    Did you know the oldest Bell brother Peter?

  48. neil a

    The problem for the Murdochs is not whether Goodman was right, but non disclosure and the cover up. Ex-editors and their own lawyers are shopping them now.

  49. Nick Poole
    18 in 1973 I was.

    And the war zone descriptor is an accurate micro study of the ‘decline and fall’ of what this contributor has been trying to say here. (But it is better there than it was 10 years ago- another example for the reason to remain hopeful)

    They were not frocks by the way.

    We wore habits.

    And some were not so good.

    Most were wonderful, and men to have on your side.

    The good society cannot be built without excellent schools, to which the elites will entrust their own children.

    A new JBDLS would be a good start!

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