MarketingMeans have their latest monthly poll of voting intentions in the South-West region for the The Western Morning News & Western Daily Press (or, at least, most of it – it excludes Poole & Bournemouth). Topline figures with changes from the June/July poll are CON 40%(-2), LAB 21%(-7), LDEM 21%(+5), UKIP 9%(+7), GRN 4%(-1). Full tabs are here.

A big drop in support for Labour, and a recovery for the Liberal Democrats… though I’d add my normal caveat about being cautious about any sudden movement in polls. So far this year MM’s regular South-West poll has been pretty steady and consistent (see below), so this big jump is quite surprising – we’ll have to wait till next month to see if it is sustained.


181 Responses to “New MarketingMeans polls of the South West”

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  1. MIKE N

    I think you’ll find that the percentage of male MPs who are divorced,separated etc is highest in the Conservative party – unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be any easily accessible published data – though I’m sure someone here knows better.

  2. I hope those Tory MPs realise they are broken Britain culprits.

  3. Just returning from a little break and trying to catch up…

    On the Laffer curve. It was completely debunked by Martin Gardner back in the 1980s – once you actually try to put data in, it fails.

  4. chrislane1945

    “We wore habits.

    And some were not so good.”

    So you picked up bad habits at your school? :-)

  5. “So you picked up bad habits at your school?”

    Gotta get through double geography somehow.

  6. The notion that English schools for the English working class is for teaching them knowledge and equip them to become citizens is a fallacy on which a lot of opinion on how these schools could be improved are based and hence collapse.

  7. So Merkel seems to have persuaded Sarkozy that offering the feckless spenders a way to carry on being feckless is not a good idea.

    So Sarkozy said -maybe later-when we have put Rompuy in charge of “a real economic government for the euro zone ” & eurozone members commit to fiscal rules in their constitutions.

    Do these people really expect anyone to take this nonsense seriously?

    Why didn’t they all stick to the last lot of eurozone fiscal rules?

    The ones enshrined in Stability & Growth Pact-Deficts max 3% X GDP. Debt max 60% X GDP.

    The SGP rules flouted by France and Germany, about which the Council of Ministers failed to apply sanctions against the two despite punitive proceedings being started when dealing with Portugal (2002) and Greece (2005), …for which fines were never applied.

    The SGP rules which Prodi described as “stupid” in 2002.

    The SGP rules which In March 2005, the EU Council, under the pressure of France and Germany, relaxed to respond to criticisms of insufficient flexibility and to make the pact more enforceable.

    These people have lost all credibility. I hope the markets hammer them until they do the screemingly obvious :-

    Cut the heavily indebted countries loose from eurozone-or make eurozone a Country with one Government.

  8. I don’t think phone hacking will hurt Cameron any more than it has already (2% off Tory VI) but it’s one of those ones that’s probably going to have a slow burn effect of making him seem less trustful – Like NI, Cameron (and the Tories) have had narrative after narrative that have been destroyed one after the other.

    What’s worse, for Cameron, is that these narratives have been near identical, which gives the perception of a stronger link to News International*.

    *That doesn’t mean I believe he has stronger links to NI. Only that it gives a *perception* of it.

    It was commented on, the other day, that Ed Miliband was stupid for bringing up the phone hacking while talking about irresponsibility in society – it made him ‘out of touch’.
    But this was actually a genius piece of spin – because Ed (or his spin doctors), like the rest us who were paying attention, knew that documents were going to be released today.
    That makes it look like, to the public, that he was ahead of the game – when, in fact, he wasn’t really.

    I’m surprised that there was no planned announcement from Cameron (unless I’ve missed it) – his people, if they were paying attention, should have had something prepared for before the release.
    This gives the perception that he’s a prime minister only reacting to events.

    And on the laffer curve – the laffer curve actually opens up a win-win opportunity for the left and a win-lose opportunity for the right.
    The left should really take advantage of those odds. ;)

    If the laffer curve points to lowering taxes to sustainably increase revenues, then the left win – increased revenues can mean increased spending.
    But if the laffer curve points to increasing taxes to increase revenues, then the left win – for the same reason.

    If the laffer curve points to lowering taxes to increase revenues, the right win – reduced taxes.
    But if the laffer curve points to increasing taxes to increase revenue, the right lose – their argument about taxes being counter-intuitive is demolished.

    It also give an interesting insight in to some of the effects of ideology –
    The left seek high taxes as a means to high spending as the ends (to help the poor).
    But the right seek low spending as a means to low taxes as the ends (to reward the successful).
    So the means and ends are reversed.

    Which also points to both sides having a fundamentally different argument – the left are having an argument over spending while the right are having an argument over reward (high earners shouldn’t be taxed to encourage success).
    No wonder the left and right can’t get together on the issue. ;)

  9. @ Tinged Fringe

    “increased revenues can mean increased spending”

    Not until it has meant reduced borrowing…………….unless you are a left wing UK politician -in which case you don’t think about debt much .

  10. I’ve always understood the argument of the Right to be, “I’m all right, why should I share?” except when it comes to the Police or Army protecting them, when they want everybody taxed and cannon fodder provided.

    Of course, roads need to be kept open too.

    The other argument (the “localism” one) seems to be that people who use the services should pay for them and that those who have money locally should decide what services to provide, who will provide them and who will be eligible. You can bet your money the tax will head upstairs again.

  11. “Not until it has meant reduced borrowing”
    Oh, I agree – I was speaking broadly.

    There are plenty on the left, myself included, who believe in balanced budgets and the need to deal with the debt.
    But it’s not always that simple – if we’d have to borrow in the short-term to boost growth in the long term (not saying I totally agree), to get out of recession, then that’s what is required.

  12. @Colin

    You said “…These people (Merkozy) have lost all credibility. I hope the markets hammer them until they do the screamingly obvious :- Cut the heavily indebted countries loose from eurozone-or make eurozone a Country with one Government…”

    As I’ve said in previous posts, there’s no mechanism for enforcing either. You can finesse things (You can construct an advisory council, or give the ECB power to purchase unlimited bonds), but anything more permanent will require treaty changes and that takes *years*.

    Given this, my best bet is that they’ll continue on with stuff they can organise quickly (an unfettered ECB, *possibly* the proposed EFSF as well) but big stuff (eurozone confederation) just won’t happen, ‘cos you can’t get tens of countries to agree on big stuff quickly. The temporary sticking plasters will become permanent, and the proposed BIG PERMANENT CHANGES will be forgotten about.

    But that’s just my opinion: as Amber will no doubt point out, most “serious commentators” (people paid to be wrong in unison… :-) ) disagree with me.

    So let’s lay down some testable criteria. Oooh, that scientific method, eh?… :-)

    It’s August 2011. I’ll stick my neck out and say that on January 1, 2012 the euro will still exist and Greece and Germany will still be members.[1]

    Are you willing to say otherwise?

    Regards, Martyn

    [1]: In fact, I’ll go further: on January 1, *2014* the euro will still exist and Greece and Germany will still be members. But that’s too far away for either of us to come back and check.

  13. “Following the talks in Paris, Sarkozy said he and the chancellor were also proposing for all 17 euro-zone countries to commit to balanced finances and cement that aim into their constitution by the summer of 2012.”

    Balanced Finances!!

    From the country that couldn’t stick to 3% deficit when it was a “eurozone commitment”

    For Greece!-when?-in 100 years time?

    These politicians are a joke-they have no idea how to solve this problem-except to keep on talking complete bo””ocks

  14. Merkel/Sarkozy-no need to expand EFSF-it’s big enough.

    Yeah…….right .

  15. @ Colin

    I agree with you on SGP – but the requirements were not kept even on the day when the euro requirements had to be met: both Italy and Belgium flouted the rules.

    The political economy journals (and economics ones too) were full of the critique of the Maastricht Treaty criteria.

    I don’t know what the outcome will be, but the two great leaders appeared to be quite headless…

  16. @Colin

    No bite? Oh well, never mind… :-)

    Anyhoo, pointing out the obvious: changes to constitutions require referenda (at least in Ireland – they won’t even have to invoke Crotty[1] to force a referndum). So that’s 17 eurozone nations, all of whom have to get it passed by a lower house, upper house, and head of state, in the teeth of opposition, and at least one of which has to hold a referendum, and do all this in twelve months.

    Presumably their next trick is squaring the circle and creating a perpetual motion machine… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

    [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crotty_v._An_Taoiseach

  17. So in the last quarter the UK economy grew twice as fast of that of Germany and faster than France. I wonder if Balls will be writing that letter of congratulations to Osborne anytime soon.

  18. “So in the last quarter the UK economy grew twice as fast of that of Germany and faster than France. I wonder if Balls will be writing that letter of congratulations to Osborne anytime soon.”
    But over the past 6 months, or 9 months, or year, far less.
    Good thing that we don’t just take these figures out of context – like politicians do. ;)

  19. @TingedFringe

    I guess the link that Miliband was trying to make between phone hacking (and financial offences like embezzlement, fraud, insider dealing, product misselling etc) and the recent rioting/looting seen on our streets was what it might say about our moral relativism when it comes to the attitudes we strike towards different types of criminality. Gross invasion of privacy, such as phone-hacking, even if it leads to a juicy journalistic scoop, is a hideous crime and one that steals an individual’s sense of identity, be it Andy Gray or a 7/7 bombing victim. The fact that we’ve had some of the country’s leading opinion formers, media magnates and news organisations indulging in this sort of systemic criminality for years should be a staggering affront to us all. So should what some of the world’s leading financial institutions and banks have been doing too. But is it? Isn’t it always easier to forgive and condone a smartly dressed executive, dripping fork-tongued and weasel words all over a callow Parliamentary Select Committee than it is to look equally sympathetically at far less photogenic behooded youths running riot over our streets?

    Society’s losers are much easier to demonise, marginalise and punish than those who’ve burrowed themselves into the very heart of our establishment..

  20. Crossbat

    ‘Isn’t it always easier to forgive and condone a smartly dressed executive, dripping fork-tongued and weasel words all over a callow Parliamentary Select Committee than it is to look equally sympathetically at far less photogenic behooded youths running riot over our streets?’

    I’d rather be hacked than be driven from the streets, burnt out of my home, my business and livelihood destroyed, or in fact be murdered.

    Any crime should be punished. Hacking should be condemned. But the posting seems like another apology for criminal, opportunists and those who just want to destroy our society be they from deprived backgrounds or daughters of millionaires.

    I think any politician who uses the bad behaviour of poorly regulated bankers, hackers from NI, who were close to both Labour and Tory Cabinet members, and expenses of MPs, the 4 most guilty of which are now languishing in jail, to excuse some of the most heartless, mindless and destructive behaviour will suffer in the polls.

  21. Tinged Fringe

    Good thing that we don’t just take these figures out of context – like politicians do

    Your absolutely right. However good news for GO.

  22. Nick Poole

    ‘’ve always understood the argument of the Right to be, “I’m all right, why should I share?” except when it comes to the Police or Army protecting them, when they want everybody taxed and cannon fodder provided’

    With the nation split roughly 50/50 if that is how you see the right how do you see the altruistic other half.

  23. “However good news for GO.”
    It depends on how you define ‘good news’ – easily spun news, yes.
    But with the virtual collapse of the world’s economy (Euro nations have showed a collapse in growth, but also some asian nations have also seen a collapse, IIRC), there’s not really much revenue to pay off the deficit with.

    And that’s going to be the real problem – if we still lack growth in the immediate future Osborne’s going to have to make a choice – does he take a short-termist view and ‘stay the course’, damaging the Tories’ chances in 2015 because he doesn’t keep his promise of deficit reduction.
    Or does he take the long-term view, pull out a Plan B – take the initial hit to Tory VI, but then push for growth and hope for a VI recovery closer to 2015.

    “Society’s losers are much easier to demonise, marginalise and punish than those who’ve burrowed themselves into the very heart of our establishment..”
    I agree with your post – but I was specifically talking about mentioning phone hacking, rather than his overall point.

    Bringing up phone hacking was genius because of it’s timing – and this feeds in to his general point about the rot at the top and the bottom of society.

  24. Henry

    “With the nation split roughly 50/50”

    That does depend on what nation you are talking about! :-)

  25. None of it sounds like good news. Austerity is failing all over Europe and it is arriving in America as we speak.

    My understanding is this is what happened in the 30s. But my understanding is limited, as you know.

    But I’m worried.

  26. Martin you may be technically correct (you usually are) & I certainly wouldn’t contradict you, but when the Euro implodes, there won’t be time for drawing up new treaties. The markets will decide, just as they did in 1992. The likes of France & Germany have the chance to lead the break up (or full integration) in a measured way, or they can prevaricate & let the whole stupid experiment, implode.

  27. Nick Poole
    “My understanding is this is what happened in the 30s. But my understanding is limited, as you know.”

    That’s my understanding too, but cheer up, we can solve it in the same way too! Have a really decent war to ramp up production in the factories!

  28. @Lazslo – “I don’t know what the outcome will be, but the two great leaders appeared to be quite headless…”

    I’ve heard of a monster with two heads, but is there any mythology relating to two monsters without a head between them?

  29. Alec,well in Greek mythology,there were three old women
    with only one eye between them,called the Greyii,but I think that does not fit the case here.

  30. @Robert Newark

    Don’t get me wrong, it’s perfectly possible for the Euro to collapse – Stephanie Flanders outlined a method a few weeks ago (a run on the Greek banks with all the money being stored outside any banking system, which forces the ECB to recapitalise every Greek bank) which i didn’t believe, and Open Europe outlined another method earlier this year (national banks avoid default by printing Euros without ECB consent, causing hyperinflation) which I did believe (because it’s the same way the rouble zone collapsed post-Soviet Union).

    But both of these mechanisms have clear warning signs and we’re not there yet.

    Given this, and the fact that there exists a mechanism to save the Euro (ECB buying bonds and undertaking huge QE), and the fact that the Gernam head of the ECB is being replaced by an Italian in October, and the fact that other proposed cures (Eurozone Confederacy) take years to set up, I assume the EU will do what it always does – the minumum to save the situation after prevaricating ad nauseam, and hang the legality. Which is why I made the prediction I did

    Of course, I may be wrong: we’ll see in January 2012…:-)

    Regards, Martyn

  31. I live in the rural South West and I am very surprised to see these results. I certainly haven’t seen any sign of the borrowed Labour vote returning to the Liberal Democrats for instance and there are no major regional events I can think of to explain the results.

    However I am not surprised that Labour still fails to gain any real foothold as it seems to have no ability to connect with rural areas. In the last election campaign the Liberal Democrats positioned themselves as the party of the ‘villager’ and the Conservatives as the party of the ‘farmer’ while Labour sent out details of ‘improved access to the countryside’… a completely urban-centric take on rural issues. So it still boils down to Liberal D. v Conservative here until Labour get their act together.

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