ICM poll on the riots

The Guardian have an online ICM poll on the riots, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. As in the YouGov poll at the start of the week, both David Cameron and Boris Johnson have negative ratings on how they handled the riots – 30% think Cameron did a good job dealing with them, 44% a bad job; 28% think Boris did a good job, 38% a bad job. In contrast Tim Godwin, the acting Commissioner of the Metropolitan police is seen as having done a good job by 45% to 27%.

The majority of the public (61%) are confident that the police are enforcing the laws fairly and without prejudice (36% are not), however only 41% are confident they have the resources available to control riots (56% do not).

Finally ICM asked people what they thought were the cases of the riots – as with the YouGov polling earlier this week people were most likely to blame it upon criminal individuals and cultural/societal problems, rather than economic, political, racial or policing problems. 45% said the main reason was criminal individuals, 28% a lack of respect within families and communities, 8% unemployment, 5% the shooting of Mark Duggan (2% said policing more generally), 4% the government and 2% the economic situation.


189 Responses to “ICM poll on the riots”

1 2 3 4
  1. @ THE SHEEP

    ” So can we conclude:
    a) this time the music that people are listening to really is going to cause the end of society? Or
    b) it’s another excuse for an easy soundbite?”

    Well not from the article I quoted-which takes two pages of today’s Times.

    Butthen-unless you have read it you are not in a position to make relevant comment are you?

    For your interest Shaun Bailey says that ” consumerism & lack of prental responsibility is to blame”

    But then-he is just a Social Enterprise manager, working on estates with young people-not an academic with shelves full of “expert knowledge” in a comfy study a million miles from a sink estate …………..so I don’t suppose anyone will listen to him much.

  2. SOCAL LIBERAL

    As for attacking the police response, I think that may have been a bad choice of Cameron’s.

    I agree. DC wanted to praise the police overall but recognise the fact that the response in the first couple of days did in many people’s eyes seem slow.

    I think he would have been wise to adopt the approach that a number of people had suffered in the first couple of days and are naturally asking questions about whether the police could have acted quicker. He could say he would be speaking to the chiefs the experts in the field to see whether any lessons could be learned or not, and whether the Chiefs needed help from govt. He could have then had a meeting and I expect come up with a satisfactory mutual response.

    Also I think it would have been prudent to say that thie rioting and looting had created an additional expense and while he was planning no change in cuts, he would allocate a special grant to cover the increased costs.

    However DC is the PR man not me.

    From the Police Chiefs, however, I am expect the public want to hear how despite cuts, the police will maintain all essential services, and look in particular to savings in waste. I am sure any PM wants employees who will tell him how they will deliver the service and not why they won’t be able to. If you can’t I will find someone who can.

  3. Alec

    Which Oborne article are you reading? The one I linked to before, which the Telegraph so amusingly are trying to disguise, amend and bury, doesn’t even mention Blair. It also doesn’t (and I think didn’t) include any of the points you discuss.

  4. Compare and contrast –
    11th Aug
    .ttp://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100100708/the-moral-decay-of-our-society-is-as-bad-at-the-top-as-the-bottom/
    A balanced article attacking all the parties and the very top of society.
    .ttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/8698033/New-Labours-toxic-legacy.html
    12th Aug
    It’s all New Labour’s fault.

    Hmm..

  5. Rob Sheffield

    “In any case-as said- these events were on a scale and extent never seen since WW2 ”

    I doubt it.

    But I’m not going to swap stuff on it.

    I just want to see us expanding -and funding-the work of social enterprises like Kids Company & others.

    I know Camila Batmanghelidjh probably doesn’t have the academic qualifications or opus of studies in social breakdown which the armies of academics queuing up to get state funding for even more erudite investigations will have .

    Nor, I suspect does Bill Bratton.

    But at least both of them seem to have produced worthwhile results.

    So whilst it may not satisfy the desire in you for yet more academic analysis-I would rather throw what money we have available at these two ( & their counterparts) than the cohort of academics looking to spend some quality time on the back of all this.

  6. COLIN,
    For a little balance – he’s also a Conservative partisan, ex-Conservative candidate for MP and ‘big society spokesperson’ for the government.
    Let’s not act like Shaun Bailey is completely unbiased in this.

    That isn’t to say he isn’t a valid source on youth problems – his work is very important, but let’s not paint him as the only source on youth problems.

    Similar is your attack on ‘academics’ who, by virtue of not being ‘on the ground’ means that their opinion, by implication, is worthless.
    For a site, that is for the analysis of polls (and thus statistics), making such a claim -if only by implication – borders on ridiculous.

  7. @roger Mexico – http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100100708/the-moral-decay-of-our-society-is-as-bad-at-the-top-as-the-bottom/

    It’s back to No 1 on the Telegraph’s most read slot, and is an entirely different piece to the discussed article on New Labour.

    I don’t think the DT has retitled it – but perhaps they did ask Oborne to have a go at Blair to try and balance it up a bit.

  8. Aha! All is explained. Alec was referring to a new piece from Oborne which went up last night, preaching the gospel according to the Telegraph. If you click on the title it leads to the new article (it didn’t go anywhere last night).

    If you click on Oborne’s name underneath though it though, you still get his previous, mega-popular article which the rest of us were talking about – even though it has otherwise vanished into the vaults. I’m still not sure if it has been altered – I seem to remember Cameron’s wisteria making an appearance, but I may have got that from a comment.

  9. Tinged

    Ah-I wondered how long it would be before you spotted that .
    Your reaction is unsurprising & the use of the phrase “Let’s not act like Shaun Bailey is completely unbiased in this.” is just the sort of party political crap which stops us helping those families.

    @ “That isn’t to say he isn’t a valid source on youth problems – his work is very important, but let’s not paint him as the only source on youth problems.”

    Unless you are involved in social work connected with inner city deprivation I will treat that as patronising uninformed self importance.

    If you are involved however, your direct experiences , advice & solutions would be good to hear.

    @”Similar is your attack on ‘academics’ who, by virtue of not being ‘on the ground’ means that their opinion, by implication, is worthless.”

    It don’t imply any such thing-but I do say that such funds as are currently available should be channeled to operators/providers/practicioners who are currently achieving worthwhile outcomes.

    I have no problem with academics writing yet more studies to enhance the body of work which already no doubt exists on this topic.
    But I don’t want the Government to fund them before the organisations I have in mind-and I don’t want to wait around for them to pontificate.

    Family lives are in crisis in some inner city areas-we need action soon.

  10. Thanks Alec – as you can see I worked it out a different way and our posts crossed.

  11. @ SoCal

    Thanks for your input on Bratton.

  12. “Your reaction is unsurprising & the use of the phrase “Let’s not act like Shaun Bailey is completely unbiased in this.” is just the sort of party political crap which stops us helping those families.”
    Except it’s not party political. It was a response to your painting him as the one true source of wisdom.
    I’d point it out, exactly the same, if he was a Labour (or LibDem, or Green, or UKIP, or Democrat, etc) candidate – he isn’t unbiased. Treating him otherwise is ludicrous.

    “Unless you are involved in social work connected with inner city deprivation I will treat that as patronising uninformed self importance.
    If you are involved however, your direct experiences , advice & solutions would be good to hear.”
    In other words –
    “Unless, you’re an artist, how dare you insult my favourite painter”

    There was an interesting debate on young voter’s question time about this – between him and two other youth workers (one who works specifically with gangs) – they disagreed on many things and there was a very heated exchange.
    That was my point – the appeal to authority is flawed, especially when that authority has obvious pro-coalition bias.
    That’s what you have to do when looking at sources – factor bias in to the reading.

    “But I don’t want the Government to fund them before the organisations I have in mind-and I don’t want to wait around for them to pontificate.”
    I apologise – I assumed you were making a point about academics not knowing what they were talking about, when you were making a point about limited government resources.

    I agree on the need to focus on channelling money to the work on the ground first – but a full inquiry with academic input is required if we want to sort out the long-term issues.

  13. @ Colin – “THere is a massive opportunity here for DC to follow through on “broken society”.” and “Family lives are in crisis in some inner city areas-we need action soon.”

    Would this be before, after or simultaneous to the scrapping of EMAs, trebling of tuition fees, advocation of eviction for looters’ families and forced removal of families from expensive inner city areas?

    Camila Batmanghelidjh does brilliant work. She listens to young people.
    That is what DC will have to start doing.

  14. This whole “they think the world owes them a living” criticism of young people by their elders is a disgraceful abolition of responsibility.

    We do owe children a living. We brought them into this world. It’s up to us to nurture them.

  15. Alec

    I was around in 1981 as well: I think you’ll find that these recent disturbances (and numbers of arrests, numbers of arsons, per capita value of damage inflvicted on property, insurnace claim totals etc etc etc) were more widespread and more numerous and more expensive than in Moss Side, Toxteth, Brixton et al in 1981.

    They were also in large part related to the sort of aggressive policing that Cameron has suddenly been converted to in the last 7 days. Perhaps you are a victim of your own self censorship when watching the TV: we all to a degree see what we want to see and hear what we want to hear and you are clearly no different to anyone else in that.

    Colin

    As someone who has advised social enterperises and community groups in three major UK cities, and worked for one in the another (yes before academia I spent over a decade in your “real world”) I can tell you quite simply- from professional experience- that SE’s and CBO’s cannot get up and running (nor survive through diffcult economic contexts) without sufficient monetary support from central and local state coffers and from charitable sources (a large part of which itself comes from the state).

    Camila Batmanghelidjh has been arguing as such across the media the last week but you have clearly missed her protestations n.b. she has lectured in psychology at various colleges/ has guest lectured at various universities and has been a contributor to social research projects- sorry to let you know that as I know that means you’ll instanateously mistrust her :D

  16. @Colin – “…but I do say that such funds as are currently available should be channeled to operators/providers/practicioners who are currently achieving worthwhile outcomes.”

    A problem endemic in the third sector is the practice of funded practitioners effectively falsifying evidence on the numbers they reach and the effectiveness of their interventions in order to secure further funding. We actually do need academics to dispationately assess the evidence from a neutral standpoint, as the practioner groups themselves always distort the evidence.

    I don’t say this as a particular criticism – I was engaged in such third sector work for many years, and there is well established scientific evidence for subconscious participatory biase in all kinds of ways.

    A great case in point was the US habit of taking young offenders into gaols to meet hardened inmates, safe in the knowledge that it would deter them from a life of crime. Various programs went on for years with widespread public support, until studies showed quite clearly that it actually increased offending rates.

    On the Shaun Bailey Right or Wrong debate, I have a certain level of respect for what he does but I do see him as politically biased and many highly successful youth workers don’t agree with his prognosis. That isn’t to say his work isn’t effective, but perhaps there is more than one way to get to the end result?

  17. Tinged FRinge
    “It was a response to your painting him as the one true source of wisdom.”

    I didn’t – I referenced him & camila batmanghelidjh

    “I’d point it out, exactly the same, if he was a Labour (or LibDem, or Green, or UKIP, or Democrat, etc) candidate – he isn’t unbiased. Treating him otherwise is ludicrous.”

    I wouldn’t-what I am refering to is expertise in the problem-to treat it as a party political matter is ludicrous & counterproductive.

    “I agree on the need to focus on channelling money to the work on the ground first ”

    Good :-)

    ROB SHEFFIELD

    “Camila Batmanghelidjh has been arguing as such across the media the last week but you have clearly missed her protestations ”

    No I haven’t -I always listen to her.

    I don’t care what her politics are-its her results which matter to me.

    I realise funding is needed. IT should be provided to the max possible & relevant. LA’s who have cut third sector funding before looking at their internal costs should be ashamed.

  18. ROB SHEFFIELD

    ” SE’s and CBO’s cannot get up and running (nor survive through diffcult economic contexts) without sufficient monetary support from central and local state coffe”

    Of course-absolutely.

    If demonstrably effective practicioners are not appropriately funded, then that is a failure of policy

  19. colin

    “If demonstrably effective practicioners are not appropriately funded, then that is a failure of policy”

    agreed

  20. practitioners

    Bloody hell I wish I could spell

  21. “colin

    “If demonstrably effective practicioners are not appropriately funded, then that is a failure of policy”

    agreed”

    ..and flicked send on this blinking iPhone before I’d finished.

    Was going to add:

    ..and effective practitioners did not always get appropriate funding under new labour (particularly after 2007).

    Furthermore- to Alecs point- ineffective pracitioners were sometimes able to create the illusion of success and ‘targets, outputs and outcomes’ achieved thereby in effect fraudulently claiming money.

    Interestingly this kind of thing made it into a Sopranos eposode (a stateside version of the phenomenona).

  22. Typo’s- I give up on this “iPhoine” for the time being!

  23. I’m amazed that the one theme which has not been aired in the whole debate this week is the one which I see as THE biggest societal fracture. Not a class-divide but an age-divide.

    The displacement of wealth towards the older section of the population over the last twenty years has been well documented.

    The sensible, law-abiding, play-by-the-rules younger generation is now being hit by a multiple whammy:

    – Higher education costs (which is a de facto transferral of costs from older to younger generation).

    -Higher housing costs (a de facto transferral of wealth from the younger generation to the older property owners).

    -Lower pension expectations, whilst having to pay tax to fund the current older generation’s comfortable pensions (again, a de facto transferral of wealth form younger to older generations).

    So, where is the incentive to be a play-by-the-rules young person? And the kids from wrong side of the tracks; where are their role models? When they see the clean, law-abiding youth struggling to get by, what sort of example does that set for them? Knuckle down at school and have aspirations to just about scrape by as a wage slave? Get real…

  24. @ Nick Poole

    People may mock, but according to the BoE monetary policy committee, George Osborne may be about to authorise another round of QE, not because there is an immediate crisis but simply to eject more liquidity into the economy.

    Therefore, the government is giving serious consideration to ‘firing up the printing presses’. This could set a precedent that will change the way governments manage the UK economy for decades to come.
    8-)

  25. Amberstar,

    Sounds like a good idea, given that the money supply is contracting, the UK has spare capacity, the fiscal stance is contractionary and nominal GDP is still well below its trend path. QE is a much better way of stimulating the economy than fiscal stimulus.

    Like I said: Ed Balls has been right to raise the issue of growth. He has just been wrong about the way to get it.

  26. Also, the Fed’s recent success in boosting US confidence by signalling suggests that there is milage out of that, though I prefer QE or even underfunding because signalling creates a potential credibility vs. flexibility dilemma.

  27. @ Bill Patrick

    And is QE the right way to get growth?

    YG are becoming increasingly sophisticated in the questions they ask on the economy. I would not be surprised to see a poll with this question, probably after the event, if GO does authorise a non-emergency round of QE.
    8-)

  28. Does anyone feel that it’s a bit of a national embarrassment for our government to call in someone from another nation to tell us how to sort out our problems?

    We should have enough expertise and faith in our own police and politicians to look at options and solutions. After all, we experienced decades of social unrest in Northern Ireland, so someone should have been thinking about this.

    I just wondered whether this may back-fire on the government… Are we really in such a mess?

  29. “LA’s who have cut third sector funding before looking at their internal costs should be ashamed.”

    We had a visit from our County Councillor recently who said that because the social services budget – for young and old – was the biggest slice of the entire budget then it would feel the brunt of the cuts.

    He’s a Tory Councillor on a Tory controlled council but I expect the same applies to councils of all hues.

  30. Was this before or after the eviction had taken place?Would it have had time to filter through?

  31. ROB SHEFFIELD

    Thanks for that.

  32. Eviction of *families* for the crime of one member certainly seems to collective punishment with is a violation of Article 7 of the ECHR.

    And what exactly does Eric Pickles think is going to happen if he turfs out a small army of young, disaffected, angry and known to be violent people who now have truly nothing to lose? We’re just going to keep having riots, and keep arresting the homeless mobs created by this policy? Then new riots after they’re put back out on the street with out any support?

  33. JAYBLANC

    Wandsworth council said any tenant, household member, or visitor who breached their tenancy agreements – which forbid them from a range of criminal and anti-social activities, could be liable to eviction.

    Presumably the vast majority of Wandsworth’s council tenants abide by their conditions of tenancy.

  34. Thesheep @ Colin

    “Music has continually been blamed for the end of society as we know it.

    I’m sure the older posters on here will have heard other genres blamed: Rock’n’roll, glam rock…”

    I must explain that I am only 71 and I have never had much time for any 20th C or even much 19thC music so-called “classical” or pop so I have only what I have read to go on.

    Music and especially the dance musick of young people has been criticised by elders from at least the 15thC. Mostly it is bamed for breaking sexual inhibitions such as the 16th C Volta where the femail dancer is thrown up high in the air.

    Knickers had not been invented at that time, and just as well considering the ablution facilities.

  35. @ Colin

    You can put anything you like in a tenancy agreement; that doesn’t mean a court can/ will enforce it.
    8-)

  36. Amber

    Sure-there seems to be a long list of LAs waiting to see the outcome of the Wandsworth eviction notice.

  37. If some of these young people in inner cities lose their benefits and lose their homes they really will have nothing more to lose and will feel even more entitled to use criminal activity as a form of personal income generation.

    Whilst most people don’t take much interest in politics and economics what does happen is that they pick up general trends and opinions (some of which may be false) and these are important in the way they form opinions. So, there is a general opinion that the most affluent (and particularly those in the financial sector) do not pay the taxes they should, do not get penalised for making mistakes and are constantly ‘getting away with it’. There is another general opinion that MPs and Ministers have made money by fiddling their expenses, tend to have more than one home and spend a lot on holidays. When it comes to role models, top footballers can often earn more in a month than many people earn in a lifetime and their conspicuous consumption lifestyle is something people aspire to – not to mention the poor example set by the social behaviour of some famous footballers which may also encourage the ‘I can get away with anything’ attitude.

    I am beginning to think that compulsory national or community service combined with boot camp style punishment for wrong-doing may have its place in dealing with all this and may be cheaper for society in the long run as well.

  38. John B Dick

    “I must explain that I am only 71 and I have never had much time for any 20th C or even much 19thC music so-called “classical” or pop so I have only what I have read to go on. ”

    Being only a little way behind you , I am pretty surprised that your only experience of popular music is what you have read about.

    I still remember the electric shock of hearing Rock Around The Clock for the first time .

    Buddy Holly

    The Stones & the Beetles

    The timeless genius of Dylan.

    The sublime Elvis.

    Fleetwood Mac. The Pogues. Jethro Tull. Tom Waits. Tom Petty. Van Morrison. Queen. Dire Straits.The Who. Eric Clapton. Pink Floyd………..Enya even.

    How can you you not have heard any of this?-it was part of our lives………………still is!

    Haven’t you heard of YouTube ?

    :-) :-)

  39. DAVIDB

    “I am beginning to think that compulsory national or community service combined with boot camp style punishment for wrong-doing may have its place in dealing with all this and may be cheaper for society in the long run as well.”

    I think you are not alone in such thoughts.

  40. Training shoes, which the manufacturers pay Vietnamese & Thai workers pennies to make from materials that cost tuppence, have become symbolic of the riots.

    To a lefty like me, the goods have been ‘stolen’ before the looters ever laid hands on them. There are big thefts & little thefts.

    Our attention will be focused on the little thefts because anything else raises too many awkward questions about how we’ve been relentlessly schooled to value branding & PR whilst at the same time being taught that people who work to produce the items are expendable & virtually worthless.
    8-)

  41. Colin

    A very persuasive school friend took me to see Rock around the clock, which he had already seen himself, and even paid for the ticket. It left me cold.

    Apart from The Beatles I could not name any of the hits of the bands you mention nor would I be able to asssociate the music with the performer. A couple of years ago I bought the complete works of Bach and Mozart on CD because it seemed a bargain, but have only listened to about three CD’s on my laptop. I own about 150 instruments but in the last three months I have only played a couple of historical clarinets for less than an hour.

    Music is a big part of my life, but I don’t listen to it that much.

    Most of today and yesterday has been spent on the internet silently searching for and reading 18c scores on the internet, and passing on by email what I have found to collaborators on two continents. This evening I will arrange some easy pieces for my granddaughter to play.

  42. Amber

    A friend of mine boasted about his rather limited success in finding a pair of trainers with a very small logo.

    I managed to find a fairtrade pair in Paisley and was told that there were only two outlets in Scotland. They were very cheap too.

  43. A second gem from Mrs A in as many days.

    She was pondering this afternoon exactly how, against a backdrop of such vigorous retribution such as 6 months imprisonment for theft of a bottle of mineral water and the eviction of families for the alleged crimes of a son, Messrs Cameron and Clegg propose to justify the oft predicted return to the cabinet of self confessed defrauder of the taxman and general decent chap David Laws.

    Just one of those teensy weensy inconsistencies that seem to hang around Cameron like flies on – well Mrs A didn’t say that, but you get the general drift.

  44. John B Dick

    “This evening I will arrange some easy pieces for my granddaughter to play.”

    That sounds nice-fortunate ( and talented) granddaughter.

  45. Chief Bratton has been quoted on the BBC website: that you “cannot arrest gang culture away”/ that the riots had “deep-seated social causes” and that we are going to need to look at (and utilise) “what works”.

    This is all classic Blairism and comes straight on the back of Cameron stealing Blairs lyrics (since we have a musical motif today) about “respect” and “responsibility”.

  46. Amberstar,

    “And is QE the right way to get growth?”

    It’s not the best way, but it’s a reasonable option, provided the BoE committed to maintaining the increase in base money.

    Two things determine growth in the long run: the supply-side and the demand-side. Supply-side reforms generally take a while to have an impact. Demand-side action only take one so far, but Ed Balls has been right to draw attention to this aspect of policy-making.

    I was once asked what impact I thought the Coalition’s cuts would have on my demand. My reply? If the BoE acts prevent a slowdown in NGDP growth, then approximately none.

  47. Police Chiefs already getting shirty about Bratton…don’t need johnny foreigner to tell us …etc etc.

    Just watched a young Tottenham resident on tv news describe how they torched her flat-then chased her & her partner in their car as they escaped.

    She said she left with nothing, because she called the police & fire brigade & thought they would respond.

    She called them twice-they didn’t respond-so she fled for her life.

  48. Alec

    ‘against a backdrop of such vigorous retribution such as 6 months imprisonment for theft of a bottle of mineral water and the eviction of families for the alleged crimes of a son, Messrs Cameron and Clegg propose to justify the oft predicted return to the cabinet of self confessed defrauder of the taxman and general decent chap David Laws’.

    I think the ordinary person, as opposed to the ‘liberal elite’ (I may be Liberal but not elite), believe that the rioters and looters got
    what they deserved and if as likely naming and shaming as well stiff jail sentences means that we will have no more riots and looting, clearly a crime against the people, then I suspect the vast majority of people will be happy. Most people IMO do not care a jot about David Laws.

    David Laws did wrong, although not as wrong it would seem as MPs who were imprisoned for their crimes. Those who feel he is not fit to be a Minister or their MP should campaign. accordingly.

  49. Rob Sheffield

    This is all classic Blairism and comes straight on the back of Cameron stealing Blairs lyrics (since we have a musical motif today) about “respect” and “responsibility”.

    I think many people were persuaded by Blairs be tough on crime be tough on the causes of crime. I know I was. Slick perhaps but correct and something many of us understood.

    I think DC is on message but do not know whether he will deliver either. I think Blair would admit he didn’t fully deliver and so if DC, NC or in the future EM can I shall be grateful.

1 2 3 4