Yesterday’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%. Thus far there is no obvious effect upon voting intention from the riots… and that probably shouldn’t surprise us that much. The reality is that most things don’t have much effect on voting intentions, or at least, don’t have effects that are noticable underneath the day-to-day random variation from sample error.

If, like myself, you are the sort of political anorak who pays great attention to the ebb and flow of politics there is a temptation to think that everything has far more impact than it really does. In this case the riots really were a huge news story that I have no doubt even people totally uninterested in politics were aware of… but it doesn’t necessarily mean it has much impact on people’s party political views. Whether it changes attitudes to things like policing, civil liberties, social deprivation, etc is a different question.


65 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 43, LDEM 9”

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  1. Rob Sheffield

    “I hope we can debate this in 2015 ”

    Colin

    “Me too”.

    If after 13 years of reform as Rob described so well, 1000s feel no compunction about rioting and driving the citizens off the steets, looting and burning down local shops and businesses, what can DC expect to achieve in a mere 5 years.

    Perhaps he and IDS will be given ten years, after which time no govt could be excused ther repeat of similar crime and mayhem and claim that their reforms were anything less than a failure.

  2. Howard

    I assume you are a non-coalition LD.

    For someone not living in the country you seem to have strong views about Mrs T. Most people hated her (inlcuding most of posters on this site) or loved her.

    The 1970s were no walk in the park, 3 day weeks, terrorism, terrible football hooliganism, UK known as the sick man of Europe. The music was good.

  3. @ Rob Sheffield

    Thanks for the pointer to the ‘Broken Window’ articles. Very interesting.

    I learn so much from this site!

  4. John B Dick.

    Many thanks, I saw your comments. I put a comment in also there.

    ASA BRIGGS ih his VICTORIAN CIITES, is well worth reading on riots and disorders, as is Disraeli’s SYBIL

    The gap between the ruling elites at the present time with the sections of society which have bee rioting has parallels with 1830-1832 and 1842, 1848, 1887 and 1919.

    This time, though, it seems to be largely cultural, rather than narrowly economic. Ed Miliband- growing in stature- has been speaking about ethics and even ‘soul’ today. This may well be a fruitful line of attack on the PM who, as has been posted here, attacked Blair for the hard line on cime wih his hug and hoody slogan

    Ernest Bevin (my hero) often spoke about the ‘poverty of aspiration of our people’

    However, the long term pressure of the disjunction between our expectations of government spending and personal spending is going to intensify.

  5. HENRY

    @”So perhaps Sir Hugh Orde is doing a little history rewrite”

    No perhaps about it-as Paddick made clear on QT.
    They are all posturing to a degree.
    Orde was in a more inclusive mood after today’s COBRA with Theresa May.

    @”The 1970s were no walk in the park, 3 day weeks, terrorism, terrible football hooliganism, UK known as the sick man of Europe. ”

    You are the master of understatement this evening Henry !-the worst period in my working life.

    Red Robbo ( I lived near Longbrige then) & Our Friends in the North …….

    @”If after 13 years of reform as Rob described so well, 1000s feel no compunction about rioting and driving the citizens off the steets, looting and burning down local shops and businesses, what can DC expect to achieve in a mere 5 years.”

    Indeed :-)

    What i was encouraged about in Rob’s invitation was the implication that his previous prediction-the collapse of the coalition in 2013 , had been extended by two years :-)

  6. Colin,interested in your comment on Red Robbo.My
    father worked for British Leyland all his working life,and
    his father was factory manager at Fisher and Ludlow
    during the war.My father was a socialist through and
    through but he had no time for RR and all the harm he did
    during his tine at Longbridge.

  7. Ann

    Thanks

    Trying to run a company in those days was impossible.

    ….hence the need for Maggie .

  8. Harriet Harman has been doing very well on Radio 4
    Any Question today.

    Made me very proud. Reminds me of her uncle, Frank Pakenham

    Speaking with passion, measured and grasp of the detail.

    Dealt with the issue about the reductions of police numbers very well.

    In response to the Archbishop of York’s wife’s question about the moral deficit in the UK

  9. chrislane1945

    I’d also recommend “Riot, Risings and Revolution: Governance and Violence in Eighteenth-century England” by Ian Gilmour (yes the Thatcher cabinet member) as very good on its period.

  10. For Scots, the last straw was when MT addressed the Church of Scotland.

  11. Chrislane 1945

    If we continue this discusssion you will persuade me to join the SNP.

    Education is not the only thing different.

    “Blue Labour” has a bad smell about it as it suggest Rangers supporting orangemen marching. The only good thing about them is that in the 1960’s I was able to send my mother to buy up early classical and baroque flutes at pawnbroker’s aucton sales.

  12. While we are recommending books The Boer War by Thomas Pakenham (Harriet’s cousin) is well worth a read (Ok, no relevance to riots, but plenty of resonance with another war a century later, this time over ‘black gold’).

    An ICM poll suggests Cameron is losing his battle with the police over blame (slow to repond)/cedit (restoring order), and over resources/budget cuts.

    h
    ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/12/riot-poll-public-back-police

  13. John B Dick

    “For Scots, the last straw was when MT addressed the Church of Scotland.”

    For those unaware of Scottish matters, the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland meets in its building on “The Mound” in Edinburgh. Thatcher’s speech was immediately dubbed “The Sermon on the Mound”.

    It was totally contrary to accepted Scottish values across the political spectrum, and even the lengthy extracts on the TV News were embarrassing to watch.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mound

    Thatcher offered a theological justification for her ideas on capitalism and the market economy. She claimed “Christianity is about spiritual redemption, not social reform” and she quoted St Paul by saying “If a man will not work he shall not eat”

  14. oldnat
    John B Dick

    “It was totally contrary to accepted Scottish values across the political spectrum, and even the lengthy extracts on the TV News were embarrassing to watch.”

    Your comment points to the kernal if the dissatisfaction for the Union.

    If she wasn’t aware of what you say before she came, she should have been. If the aim was to cause offence and destroy the Scottish Conservative party, I couldn’t then and cannot now imagine a better way to go about it.

    If she was advised, she was badly advised by someone spectacularly unfit for the task. If she was not advised she was culpably ingnorant of the need to get advice.

    A holocaust denier giving a speech in a synagogue would be a deliberately offensive act. This was nearly as bad but pure ignorance and stupidity, even well-meaning.

    At the time I wondered if she had been set up by the SNP.

    Even the fact that she wore a hat, betrayed the fact that she thought she was in a church rather than in a court.

    I think she thought she would show off her erudition and her grasp of Chritian theology. Instead she displayed her breathtaking igorance.

  15. OldNat

    Thanks for the URL

    “The Margaret Thatcher Foundation, which reproduces the full text of the speech on its website and characterises the nickname “Sermon on the Mound” as distasteful, rates it as having key importance as a statement of Thatcher’s views on religion, morality, family, social security, welfare, taxation, education, race, immigration, nationality, and civil liberties.”

    That says it all, I’ve tried here to explain that the low esteem of the Conservative party in Scotland was about values. Clearly the MTF agrees with that.

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