Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 43%, LDEM 11%. It looks as though the bigger Labour leads of up to 8 points that YouGov have shown since the phone hacking scandal hit its peak haven’t quite faded away yet after all.

481 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 43%, LDEM 11%”

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  1. The Daily Telegraph is reporting that Osborne had dinner with Rupert Murdoch two weeks before BSkyB bid decision
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    All in it together?

  2. Liz Hancock
    @The Other Howard

    “I think it is commendable that people are given another chance but l think it is important to be cautious. For instance if someone had been accused of defrauding their company accounts, would you still employ that person in your company where they may have a chance to do the same or would you give them a second chance but in a position where they would not be able to commit the same crime should they be prone to do so? Otherwise you would have to watch them very carefully creating an environment of distrust.”

    You can get a committed and grateful employee, but I also knew boh sides where trust was not rewarded in just the circumstances you describe.

    It’s a management decision.

    As a young apprentice I discovered a minor fraud, The partner in charge said to the manager that he could sack the employee or not, and that he (the auditor) would support his decision whatever he decided to doeither way. That’s why managers get paid more than the people who do the real work.

  3. It’s only a “second chance” if you think he’s done something wrong. Entirely different from “innocent until proven guilty”.

    If Coulson had been found guilty already of phone hacking, would Cameron have given him a “second chance”? Would he have got any level of clearance?

    What Cameron means is that he took him on in good faith, believing the “one rogue reporter” defence and ignoring warnings.

    The question is, if he gambled that Coulson was innocent and/or would never be charged/found guilty…what does he lose if he loses that gamble? Should he lose anything.

    Will, “sorry I got it wrong” suffice?

  4. Nick Poole

    ‘what does he lose if he loses that gamble? Should he lose anything.’

    David Cameron appears to have lost in the polls regarding his own standing, and probably the Party two, and for a moment his leadership wobbled.

    That is before anything has been proved against Coulson, and I assume DC would be further damaged if Coulson is convicted of anything.

  5. Henry

    I’m not sure there is much more mileage in it and I was only discussing it out of interest.

    You are probably right that any damage is done, although it will come up every time Coulson reappears in the news, and possibly Brooks too.

    Meanwhile in the US a huge political wrestling match is taking place and the whole US (and world?) economy totters.

  6. Liz Hancock

    ‘The Daily Telegraph is reporting that Osborne had dinner with Rupert Murdoch two weeks before BSkyB bid decision’

    The Mail and Telegraph are doing everything they can to bring down Cameron. Both papers have had intense dislike of the last two Tory PMs.

    As right of the Tory Party as it currently is, and intense dislike of LDs, these papers would rather see Labour in power than DC retain the leadership.

    It is a gamble similar to the late 90s when they wanted Major to go. It contributed to a Labour win and 13 years of labour rule.

    It is a good position for Labour, to have two of the highest circulation papers, with predominately middle England readership, rooting (if not for them) against the Tories.

  7. Nick Poole

    I agree 100%

  8. It’s odd, isn’t it, the tendency for parties to hate their own internal rivals more than the opposition? The rifts between old and New Labour, the EuroSceptics v philes, the orange bookers v social democrats.

  9. @Henry

    “It is a good position for Labour, to have two of the highest circulation papers, with predominately middle England readership, rooting (if not for them) against the Tories.”

    Henry, Henry, Henry, can I usher you back into the real world for just a minute. The Mail and Telegraph may not like Cameron and his set or the Tory PM before him(and who the hell did like John Major, anyway) but if you think they won’t revert to their visceral Labour loathing ways at the first opportunity (i.e when it matters), I’m afraid you’re a little more naive than I thought.

    Labour-loathing is part of the Mail and Telegraph’s DNA, as it is too for most of their readership I would imagine.

  10. The Telegraph have for the last ten years or so been very critical friends of the Tory party. They try to not go too far as it would alienate most of their readership, who are typically well into their golden (blue rinse) years.

  11. Regarding the Tom Sheridan trial perjury investigation: If Andy Coulson did lie, knowing it could send TS to prison for several years, that is truly dreadful.

    NoW hounded TS, tried to humiliate him & ruin his marriage by blowing up a few indiscretions into a huge scandal. TS sued them, primarily to save his marriage & to make NoW more cautious about meteing out similar treatment to people NoW simply did not like.

    The vindictive reaction of NoW, who used all their power & influence to force a prosecution, was shocking to me. I could hardly believe that a newspaper, which dealt in lies & scandal, could be spiteful in such a deeply personal way.

    If Andy Coulson finds himself in the same position as TS, it would be poetic justice. But I doubt it will happen because, if AC were to be found guilty, the effect on David Cameron would be devastating. I think that no effort or expense will be spared in defending AC.

  12. @ AmberStar

    “But I doubt it will happen”

    It is out of hand, quite irrelevant what the powers to/of be want. The unpredictability of the events is extremely important.

  13. Amberstar

    He’s in the same position as Jeffrey Archer without the personal charm. If he can prove the Murdoch empire fabricated evidence against him best wishes but I suspect his champagne socialist life style will not win him many friends. Still I take it from your previous comments you’ like the Bollinger yourself preferably paid for by the Edinburgh council tax payer. Are you hoping to do well from the trams? Drummonds Bar used to be very nice but it’s probably a bit down market for your tastes.

  14. All will be forgotten after the summer. By 2015, the election will be decided on the economy. If the coalitition get it right, they will be ok, but Milliband/Balls will have to come up with an alternative which I doubt they are capable of.

  15. This report suggests that a defence of Coulson against any perjury charges is being coordinsted by “senior members of the Conservative Party.”


  16. There is an interesting interview with Speaker Bercow in the Guardian today.

    He has been an excellent speaker throughout the hacking debates & his contribution to defusing the excesses of the media around politics & policies should not be over-looked.

    The speaker has allowed 60 urgent questions already during this parliament, thereby allowing issues to be debated in parliament by MPs & Ministers, rather than in the media via press statements, spinners & arguments between politicians driven by e.g. Paxman.

    Kudos are due to the speaker for taking this approach.

  17. @ Wolf

    Still I take it from your previous comments you’ like the Bollinger yourself preferably paid for by the Edinburgh council tax payer. Are you hoping to do well from the trams? Drummonds Bar used to be very nice but it’s probably a bit down market for your tastes.
    What a strange comment you made! My alcohol of choice is Jack, I’ve never had a drink in my life which was funded by anybody’s taxes.

    As I’ve said before, I work for a US semi-conductor corporation which has zero interest in the Uk public sector or Edinburgh’s trams.

    If anybody is interested, I spend time in various bars in Leith, including the Dockers’ Club; & when ‘out on the town’, I tend to go where the live music is: Bannermans, Henry’s Cellar Bar, The Jazz Bar in Chamber Street, Liquid Rooms etc. I don’t know if these are up or down market by your standards but I like them.

  18. @ Billy Bob

    Thank you, that’s what I was alluding to… in the interests of transparency you have said directly that which I only hinted at.

  19. And for anybody who cares, I find Tommy Sheridan’s Party & George Galloway’s Respect rather irritating, when I think of them at all.

    My sympathy for TS would be extended to anybody who is imprisoned based on a media witch-hunt & witnesses at their trial committing perjury.

    I am not aware of any witnesses at Lord Archer’s trial being investigated for committing perjury. Perhaps I am mistaken & Wolf – or somebody else – can enlighten me, thereby securing my sympathy for Lord Archer regardless of him being a Tory.

  20. @ Nick Poole

    “I looked up “twinkie defence” on wiki (you captured my interest, socal!):

    Voluntary manslaughter? That’s like accidently on purpose?”

    I’m glad I captured your interest. :)

    I appreciate your question because it forces me to review. Murder is the unlawful killing of another with malice aforethought. Malice Aforethought can be established by (1) intent to kill, (2) intent to cause great bodily harm, (3) reckless disregard for human life (Russian Roulette), and (4) intent to commit underlying felony (felony murder rule).

    Now involuntary manslaughter is a homicide that is committed without the malice aforethought. Voluntary manslaughter, however, is different. It’s a mitigation of the murder even though the prosecution establishes that you had malice aforethought. A defendant is still guilty of the crime (will likely still do jail time for it) but they are able to mitigate the crime of murder to voluntary manslaughter. In order to mitigate, there must be adequate provocation that would cause a reasonable person to lose self control and no time to cool off. Adequate provocation is usually defined though by law (things like finding one’s spouse in bed with another).

    In White’s trial, the jury misapplied the law in order to nullify the charges against him. There was no adequate provocation for the murders. Even if there was such provocation, he certainly had time to cool off after he murdered George Moscone before calmly and deliberately walking to the other wing of City Hall and killing Harvey Milk. Because he knew he wouldn’t have been allowed to bring his gun into City Hall due to the magnetometers at the building’s entrance, he purposely snuck in through a basement window to avoid detection. This strongly suggests that the murders were both premeditated and deliberate and brought about by some provocation of a person.

    “Have you seen the “gay panic” defense?

    It seems to me you could create “whatever you dislike” panic defence, if you were so minded.”

    Yes, I know all about it. I don’t think you can really create such panic defenses for whatever you would like because what will allow you to mitigate a defense is typically defined by law.

    In fact, I don’t think that one can constitutionally raise the gay panic defense in a California state court. Or one could raise it but I think that it would have to be blocked by the judge.

  21. @Amber Star – In the interests of UKPR, let’s hope the Docker’s club is quiet tonight… if not, that the Leith police dismisseth you. ;)

  22. @ Robert C

    “It used to be standard issue (and I believe still is) when defending a homophobic murderer. Works all the time.”

    I’m not sure that it is standard issue anymore or that it neccessarily works. I think Matthew Shephard’s killers attempted it as part of their defense and didn’t convince a jury in rural Wyoming.

    With the Dan White case, I think many people made comparisons to the gay panic defense because his twinkie defense was utterly improbable and yet the jury seemed to buy it.

  23. @ Crossbat11

    “I haven’t got the stomach to discuss Murdoch and Coulson any more now the full horror of the absolute disaster in Norway is becoming known.

    All I can offer is my sincerest condolences to all those massacred and their their families and friends. I just hope that somehow they can find the strength to come through it, bind their society together and try to eliminate the lunatic fringe responsible. In that sense I wish Jens Stoltenberg, a fine and decent man, and his Labour Government all the very best in the hellish days and months to come. I also hope that the Norwegian Labour Party can find a way too to cope with this horrendous calamity.

    Another example of how blind hatred, intolerance and a complete lack of reason can lead to unspeakably evil acts.

    My thoughts are entirely with the Norwegians now as they try to recover from the evil that this lunatic has visited upon their beautiful country.”

    I hear you. It’s very disheartening and very saddening. I will never understand how people can be capable of doing such evil.

    I wish all the survivors of that summer camp the best too because what happenned to them is downright evil and it will likely stick with those teenagers for years. That’s occured with a number of student survivors of school shooting rampages. I hope that’s taken into consideration.

  24. @John B Dick
    “That’s why managers get paid more than the people who do the real work”.

    I cannot agree with that as a generalisation. When i was a Managing Director, I and my senior managment team worked longer, harder and under more stress than anyone on the shop floor, thats how you make a success of a business.

  25. @ Nick Poole
    “Will, “sorry I got it wrong” suffice”?

    Yes it would to me. I want the prime Minister getting on with running the country.

  26. @Nick Poole.

    Fine post, thank you.

    And Mr Hoare will have family in grief too,

    as will the families of the other, allegedly ‘hacked’ people.

    As a History teacher, I try to remind my students that underneath so called ‘High Poltiics’ are the lives of ‘ordinary people’

    On Holy Ground, we are.

    Having said all that, the political weather has changed.

  27. Nick poole
    “Will, “sorry I got it wrong” suffice”?

    Not for me.

  28. Cross bat

    ‘ but if you think they won’t revert to their visceral Labour loathing ways at the first opportunity (i.e when it matters), I’m afraid you’re a little more naive than I thought’.

    I am not claiming to know these papers’ agenda, and I would be interested in your views

    I think the Telegraph and Mail are undermining Cameron and have access to typical Tory voters. It appears they want to bring down Cameron (Major if it was 97).. Perhaps they hope he will be replaced by a far right leader, who will then lead the Conservative Party to a massive victory. If so I think they are mistaken and DC presents a more acceptable face of the Tory Party, just like Tony Blair did for Labour in 1997, and 2001.

    Incidently, John Major held the largest majority of all in his Huntingdon Constituency. It was a Tory area, although majorities have declined since he left. However, he was very popular in the Constituency and that contributed to his majority.

    The Tories were John Major’s problem not the orther way round.

  29. Lord Leveson, the judge who will lead the hacking inquiry has said he had attended functions with Murdoch’s son-in-law – but that he had informed David Cameron of this before the appointment was announced.

    I can smell the whitewash already.

  30. @Henry

    “I am not claiming to know these papers’ agenda, and I would be interested in your views”

    In fairness, the Mail and Telegraph aren’t at the top of my “must read” list, so I can’t comment much on their daily content or agenda, but when I’ve picked up the odd edition of either title, which I occasionally do, I have noticed the anti-Cameron strain to which you refer. What’s driving this is difficult to know exactly, but I suspect it’s part disappointment at his failure to secure a majority in May 2010, forcing him into a coalition with the Lib Dems (who the Mail and Telegraph abhor almost as much as Labour) and part rejection of his “Compassionate Conservatism” rhetoric. All a bit “salmon pink” in hue for these papers, I would think.

    However, where I part company with you is that while they may personally dislike Cameron, their real purpose in life is to prevent a Labour Government being elected. Even Cameron and the Lib Dems are better than that appalling prospect and they’ll soon turn their ire on the real enemy in time. They’d sooner rip out their own kidneys with a rusty pair of pliers than do anything to help Labour!

    My disdain for Major is a personal thing and I accept that there were those who liked him. I found him a vacillating and peevish character and I was glad to see that he’s just come rank bottom in an opinion poll as the the least likeable and competent PM of the last 50 years. Even old Grumpy Gordon finished ahead of him!

  31. I agree that Mail/Telegraph do not intend to hand 2015 GE to Labour (unless there are other agendas of which I am unaware). However, as far as the right is concerned they are playing a dangerous game; if they damage DC in the eyes of the Mail/Telegraph reader and he remains PM, then there is a danger enough of these voters will either abstain or vote UKIP in 2015 to lose the election for the Tories.

    I thijnk they must realise they are damging a DC Tory Party but feel that it is worth it to remove DC; following his removal a clearly rightwinger will be picked and the delighted country will give the Tories a GE victory.

    I think they are wrong on both counts i.e. they will not succeed in removing DC and if they did then the Tories would have less chance of winning the GE.

    I expect you believe that Labour will win anyway, and I feel it is too early to call (the bookmakers slightlty favour the Tories). To my mind a change of leader at this stage, particularly if rightn wing, will guarantee a Labour victory, furthermore it will probably alienate the LDs and could result in a 2012/2013 election speeding up a new Labour Govt.

    This is why in my original post I was optimistic for Labour.

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