Ipsos-MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, and has topline figures of CON 32%(-5), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), Others 18%. Changes are from last month’s poll, and clearly show a significant drop for the Conservatives and a boost for minor parties.

On leader ratings David Cameron’s net approval stands at minus 15, a signifcant drop from last month’s minus 2. Ed Miliband’s rating is minus 7, up from minus 15 last month and, I think, the first time a poll has shown him with an approval rating above David Cameron’s. Scrap that bit – Miliband certainly had more positive ratings when he first became leader and it’s actually been quite common for Miliband to have better net ratings than Cameron in MORI’s version of the question

One caveat about this though, it has a slightly odd sample. MORI’s sample contained significantly fewer people who said they voted Tory in 2010 than it usually does, in fact the weighted sample still had more people who claimed they voted Labour in 2010 than claimed they voted Tory. Regular readers will know that ICM, Populus and YouGov all use political weighting to make sure how people in their sample claim they voted at the last election roughly reflects what actually happened (with some variation due to assumptions about false recall). MORI do not (for reasons which I’ll come to below), therefore the political make-up of their sample can be significantly different from one month to the next.

Looking at the polls over the last few days and based on the information available from each company’s tables (only ICM gave full details in their tabs, so the others make some assumptions about the proportion of 2010 “others”):

In the last ICM poll, people’s recalled 2010 vote was CON 37%, LAB 30%, LDEM 24%
In the last Populus poll, people’s recalled 2010 vote was roughly CON 37%, LAB 30%, LDEM 24%
In the last YouGov poll, people’s recalled 2010 vote was roughly CON 36%, LAB 31%, LDEM 25%
In the last Ipsos-MORI poll, people’s recalled 2010 vote was roughly CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 23%

The reason MORI do not weight by party recall or past vote is because they are concerned that people’s past recall of how they voted could change rapidly, and therefore weighting by it risks dampening out genuine volatility in public opinion. ICM and Populus also think that levels of false recall can move, but think it changes only slowly over time, something which their model takes into account. YouGov are panel based, so store respondents’ answer to how they voted in 2010 and don’t need to worry about false recall changing.

These are legitimate differences of opinion, and obviously the different companies each believe that they are doing what is correct… but we shouldn’t be surprised if they result in different answers, and if a poll that has far more 2010 Labour voters in it is better for Labour and Ed Miliband than a poll with more 2010 Conservative voters in it.


147 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Reuters – CON 32, LAB 39, LDEM 11”

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  1. AW
    Thanks

  2. @Old Nat

    It seems to me that, in your comments, you endlessly plough the same furrow.

    I was merely following your example.

    Don’t forget, immitation is the most sincere form of flattery!
    8-)

  3. @Old Nat

    Mea culpa. :-(

    My response should have been to your fellow traveller, Stuart Dickson, although I try not to read his posts, let alone comment on them!

  4. Things are getting fairly forensic now so it’s time to take an interest in semantics. What, in this context, is an ‘appropriate conversation’? So, Rebekah asks David what his line on BSkyB is when he discusses the matter with Jeremy Hunt and David says he supports Jeremy’s approach but if Rebekah and the Murdochs have further information germaine to the issue they should communicate it as soon as possible. Perfectly OK on the face of it but might be seen by Rebekah as a coded green light to keep pushing for News Corp’s desied outcome. All fairly academic as we’ll probably never know even after countless enquiries.

    The main issue which will continue to colour people’s view of Cameron is his willingness to appoint Coulson in the first place. Cameron was once Communications Director for Carlton Television and should have been aware that in the media world mud sticks . Before all this, mutterings of croneyism were being directed at Cameron and he’s not going to be able to dispel this after what’s happened – still we are used to PMs who are ‘damaged goods’ are we not.

  5. @Robin Hood

    *If* the conservatives had been doing well before the NI collapse and recriminations, then maybe you could say that if DC survives he will go on to win…

    But the fact, established by polling, is that the Conservatives were not doing well before. A return to status quo ante bellum, is a return to the Conservatives not doing well. David Cameron not resigning in disgrace isn’t a victory. He can, and I suggest probably will, survive this but be rendered so unpalatable to the general public that he would become a drag on his party.

    This has been a common refrain recently… “Once the Conservatives get past $Insert_Crisis_Here, they’ll be popular again and win!”

    The problem is that the Conservatives have a *lot* of crisis they were previously damaged by, are being damaged by, or are expected to be damaged by.

    They have a *lot* of work to do to ensure they could win the next election. Getting past this current crisis is in fact one of the least of their problems. Albeit one that could suddenly get a whole lot worse should anything new come to light.

    The conservative party are a ship cast on a storm, manning the bilge pumps and someone just heard snapping wood below the water line… If they find it was just a broken bucket, they are still pumping water in a storm and very far from safe harbour.

  6. @Sergio
    Thanks for the clarification. 8-)

  7. @Mike N

    Sadly, a direct request to find out which company vetted an individual will be easy to decline on security and personal privacy reasons. It could be possible to make a claim for the vetting processes of all No.10 employees, but that could still be denied on security grounds.

  8. @ Valerie & Sergio etc.

    I would have some respect for those calling for more Grammar Schools if they admitted in the same breath that they were also in effect calling for more secondary modern schools.

  9. Valerie

    Mystery explained!

    As to the “same furrow” comment, those of us whose main political interest is in the political reconstruction of the UK find the endless bickering over English public services equally quaint. :-)

  10. Jayblanc
    Sadly, aye.

  11. Another interesting question is whether DC and RB at any time discussed the fact that DC should appoint Coulson. I know she said she didn’t but we’ve already seen how reliable her testimony is to previous parlt cttees.

    And, did Brooks attempt to have any influence on the PM through Coulson once he was in No 10?

    The answers to those questions would tell whether we have a Manchurian Candidate in No 10 simply doing News Corp’s bidding.

  12. @ Adrian B

    The answers to those questions would tell whether we have a Manchurian Candidate in No 10 simply doing News Corp’s bidding.
    ————————————–
    Well, in the unlikely event we did, we don’t any more.

  13. Ipsos Mori non-headline figures (in other words the percentages that appear on their archive page – without the 100% certain to vote weighting which became their headline figure in 2002):

    Con 31%, Lab 42%, LD 10%

    Highest Lab figure since January 2011, lowest Con and LD scores this parliament.

    Con had a 29% score on the archive for April 2010, and before that a 31% in August 2007. For LDs 10% is the lowest since a 9% in April 1997. Highest Labour lead since September 2007.

  14. @Billy Bob

    Con had a 29% score on the archive for April 2010, and before that a 31% in August 2007. For LDs 10% is the lowest since a 9% in April 1997. Highest Labour lead since September 2007.

    But they did somewhat better than that a month later, when it mattered. So I don’t think we can read too much into the data.

  15. John B Dick

    Re Bavarianisation of SLAB

    Did you notice that SLAB’s largest donor is arguing precisely for that in today’s Scotsman?

    http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Brian-Dempsey-Ambition-needed-at.6803676.jp?articlepage=1

  16. @chouenlai

    As Anthony has advised, do not rise to partisan posts [snip]. I have watched, and am still watching the Prime Ministers Satement and the debate following. It is not something I would do for such a lengthy period very often but it is fascinating watching Parliament in action.

    The Ipsos/Mori poll was interesting as I posted on the last thread but as Anthony commented in his thread it could be an outlier because of the particular sample. It will be very interesting to see what movement if any we see in future YouGov polls. I suspect like Anthony, that there will be very little, certainly from what I have heard to date (17.01 pm).

  17. @ Amber,

    Actually I was referring to Cameron not Coulson, but I realise I am allowing my Hollywood side to take over … this all started when I posted that James Cameron would likely have to stand down as News Corp director … possibly to work on Terminator 5.

  18. @ Old Nat

    Re Bavarianisation of SLAB

    Did you notice that SLAB’s largest donor is arguing precisely for that in today’s Scotsman?
    ————————————————-
    Even if he is Labour in Scotland’s “largest” donor (& I doubt it), he has no more influence than anybody else.

    BTW: He also says, in the article:

    “It may seem strange to say, but it [the Labour Party in Scotland] needs to be less democratic. Once the leader is in place, it will require a benign dictatorship to reinvigorate this movement…”

    I am rolling my eyes at this because words cannot express etc.
    8-)

  19. Robinhood

    a post so long that I am tempted to quip “the man doth protest to much”

    One phrase response: “its the economy stupid”: including employment- both quality and security; costs of living; household real disposable income as well as the quality of public services.

    None of which has the slightest to do with Hackgate- which itself has no bearing whatsoever on whether DC will manage to win his first election n.b. why the Tories do NOT actually have a strong foundation (35.9%) going into the next GE.

    If the employment situation has and is improving; if the costs of living for the average voter are not increasing as they have been doing the last 12 months and if household incomes are rising and back about the level (in real terms) that they were in 2008- and if public services have not clearly deteriorated- THEN you might be justified in being a DC cheerleader.

    The fact that DC has survived Hackgate makes no difference whatsoever (IMHO- which you forgot BTW).

    **

    Elsewhere- EdM could not lay any “left hooks” on Cameron today.

    I think Hackgate has now bottomed out: (in parliamentary terms- it already had already obviously in polling terms.

    EdM and the front bench need to get back on the front foot over a whole other bunch of ‘bread and butter’ issues that are slipping away unchallenged during this overblown fizzy Westminster bubble (if a bubble can indeed be fizzy)!

  20. @ Adrian B

    Ah, I get it now, :-)

  21. @sdcook5000

    I was not reading anything into the data just setting it out… it could well be that the latest Mori poll is an outlier, as earlier ones no doubt have been.

    The interesting thing for me is that not including the 100% liklihood to vote proviso may uncover underlying volatility in voting intentions.

    If you push me to read anything at all, a return to polling picture on Mori similar to that of the summer of 2007 (but with LDs significantly lower) might suggest a closing of the Coulson chapter and a retoxified Conservative brand… but I realise there is no evidence for such a conclusion. ;)

  22. @ Robbie Alive

    @ Valerie & Sergio etc.

    I would have some respect for those calling for more Grammar Schools if they admitted in the same breath that they were also in effect calling for more secondary modern schools.

    —————————————————————————

    Absolutely. 8-)

    Those asking for more Grammar schools, dont seem to realise that “You can’t have one without the other”.

  23. The other Howard
    Thank you for caring. I think the best thing I can do is stay away from this site until this blows over. The ridiculous tittle tattle is no place for grown men. I watched the entire kit & karbodle this AM and PM myself.

  24. @ Chou

    Well I hope you come back in another reincarnation when you emerge from your lair in Bucks.

    There could be a prize for the first person to spot you. 8-)

  25. @ Amber,

    Actually, although the “Manchurian” language is a bit immotive, it is not hugely far-fetched.

    We know there is (or was) a very pro-Murdoch strain to the front bench who were very pro-Murdoch owning the whole of BSkyB (Osborne, Hunt, Vaizey etc).

    There are questions whether Brooks was pushing for Coulson to be appointed as Cameron’s press man (let’s face it, whoever was going to be Cameron’s press man was almost definitely going to be in No 10 as Lab was obviously going to lose). Osborne was certainly pushing for Coulson to come on board.

    Once in Coulson was clearly having meetings with ex-NotW contacts (Wallis), was he also meeting with Brooks/hearin from Brooks?

    And was Cameron bending over backwards to help Murdoch (in ways that were on the edge of appropriateness) in his bid with BSkyB?

    In some ways the appearance of things can be as damaging as actual wrong-doing (although I think in Brooks and Coulson’s case they would say there is a big difference and hope that the police decide it’s the former not the latter).

  26. A second big poll drop for the Tories now looks suspiciously like genuine hacking related movement. I’ve said before, but I think Cameron has been damaged by this and the damage will last, to some extent at least.

    Today’s developments; his inability to straightforwardly answer ‘no’ to simple questions about whether he discussed the Bskyb bid with NI people are sinister. Clearly, he did discuss the bid, otherwise we would have that straight ‘no’. So we are now left having to believe a PM when he says these discussions were not inapproprate.

    If I was a PM, I would accept the fact that I no longer had a private life and that any meetings with senior business figures (particularly those engaged in a major bid for which government has legal oversight) would need to be in the presence of government officials and fully minuted. I would do this for no other reason than for my own protection.

    If Cameron cannot supply transcripts of all his discussions with NI people, or a simple denial that the bid was ever talked of, then I will seriously question his judgement. The guff about hindsight over Coulson was one thing (plenty of people has sufficient foresight to warn him) bt the inability to spot that talking to NI people at such times was not sensible. Unless you had business to talk about.

  27. I don’t think there is evidence yet, just a tantalising possibility that a percent or two of those who voted for Cameron are now so disillusioned that they have persuaded themselves that they actually voted Labour at the GE.

  28. @ Valerie & Sergio etc

    The Grammar School I attended remains. The local primary schools do not prepare their pupils for the 11+, as this would unbalance the education they provide. State school parents who wish their children to take the 11+ hire private tutors to coach them. Large numbers of children enter from private prep. schools from miles around, & such schools advertise their vigorous 11+ preparation as their main selling point. One may approve or disapprove of these arrangments. However, the fact that parents in effect buy places for their children in Grammars is seldom if ever mentioned.

  29. ALEC

    Agree with you – Cameron needs to go public on relevant aspects of his private social life – a statement such as ‘I have been horse riding with Mrs Brooks about 10 times over the last 18 months and on some of those occasions shared a drink with her in a local hostelry’ would be quite refreshing and couldn’t do any more damage than has already been done. When asked what they talked about he could probably say ‘all sorts of things and certainly not business’ and just about get away with it!

  30. The more I hear about Police corruption in taking bribes from media for information, the more I believe that the two have been involved in a long running illicit affair. For this to be the case, senior officers with the Met where most of this has taken place, must have had suspicions about what was going on. When newspaper hacks were able to get to the scene of an arrest before the Police had arrived, this must be due to a tip off. Either that or the Police communications systems are being monitored.

    I thought that Cameron did pretty well today, but he did not answer exactly whether BSkyB had come up during informal discussions with News International Executives. He skirted around the subject, which indicated that it had been raised, but that it was not his business to get involved in. I suppose that as PM it is difficult to stay away from journalists and media owners, but having had one in the heart of No.10 even more difficult.

  31. This Eurozone tax on banks, to save Greece is a miracle idea, it’s proof the Euros is great, I think that will help Labour,

  32. Amber

    “he has no more influence than anybody else. ”

    I’m delighted to hear it. I had taken your fellows at their words when they made frequent posts about large donors having undue influence on political parties. I took it for granted that they were talking from knowledge of what happened in Labour.

    Glad to hear that they were simply deluded eejits.

    As to anyone in Labour advocating less democracy – quelle surprise! :-)

  33. I don’t see that the throw away comments on Mori’s poll (that it’s no good) have any validity in the circumstances that their method is unchanged and that they are historically as likely as any other pollster to ‘get it right’.

    Certainly the opined volatility in public opinion seems to be borne out by the leader ratings and we must watch the trend in YG over the next week to see if Mori might be ‘onto something’.

  34. @ Old Nat
    “As to the “same furrow” comment [re Scottish independence], those of us whose main political interest is in the political reconstruction of the UK find the endless bickering over English public services equally quaint.”

    The “bickering” concerns the jobs, livelihoods & social welfare of millions of public sector workers & the people who use their services. The same “bickering” must go on in Scotland, which experienced negative economic growth in the last 2 quarters, & where Public Sector workers face a 2-3 year pay cut, facts ignored by the SNP independence-junkies who post on this site.

  35. Most normal people spend christmas with family and
    friends.Cameron spends his with Rebecca Brooks.I
    wonder if Helena Bonham Carter has had her phone
    hacked? Probably not I would hazard a guess.

  36. ROB SHEFFIELD

    “EdM and the front bench need to get back on the front foot over a whole other bunch of ‘bread and butter’ issues ”

    I agree-but that applies to the whole of Parliament.

    There is some very serious stuff going on economically & it behoves them all to start thinking about it.

    Having watched all the Select Committee hearings yesterday , plus DC’s statement today & a slug of the ensuing debate I cannot imagine there is any more to be said.

    A raft of enquiries & reviews is now in train, not to mention a police investigation.-lets just wait for the results ………………..& start worrying about the Eurozone !

  37. @ Amber

    Once the leader is in place, it will require a benign dictatorship to reinvigorate this movement
    —————————————————————————

    I wonder if such a regime would have a statue of said dictator in its HQ? 8-)

  38. ROBBIE ALIVE

    “Scotland, which experienced negative economic growth in the last 2 quarters”

    I didn’t realise that !

    But then-I don’t usually look for the regional breakdown of UK GDP change.

  39. Oldnat

    Thanks for the link.

    It wasn’t Lord Astor but witness Steven Ward to whom Mandy Rice-Davies was referring in the famous quote.

    If Bavarianisation had taken place at devolution we might not be talking about independence today.

    Certainly that argument that they should prepare for independence is sound, but it would be better not to announce it till after they have bavarianised.

    They do need to do it sooner rather than later. Leaving it till after independence would leave them looking extremly foolish and irrelevant. Imagine an independent country where the second party is led by someone in the parliament of another country.

    It wouldn’t be much better if they did it between the referendum and the implementation of a decision to end the union. To do it during or just before a referendum campaign would be to admit the possibility of defeat. Best to do it now.

    Cross-border parties in national elections is something even the most pro-european parties cannot imagine.

    The demand for a stronger leader is either badly expressed or counter-productive. Clearly he wants one or other of the two MP’s and the other is named to seem even handed and objective. A Murphy inspired article perhaps?

    In my opinion they should get someone less identified with NewLabour, defence of the unbavarianised status quo, and unbelievable spin on matters best forgotten.

    That’s a problem.

    A novice among the MSP intake isn’t the answer either.

    A short term caretaker such as Henry McLeish would be an admission of lack of suitable talent.

    HM or anyone else from outside parliment for example, the untained best person available, Susan Deacon would be very difficult.

    Dare I suggest that the best choice might be Iain Gray? Freed from party minders he might surprise you.

    If they try they won’t get it right. Why not? Because they ar a bunch of incompetents. Will Scottish Peers be part of the Scottish or the English party? I’d bet that they would be part of the English party until the SNP point it out.

    For £50,000 I’d advise them how to avoid pitfalls like that. In fact I’m open to offers to be party leader if the price is right. I could never be a member of a leadership cult unless they made me leader first, and then I’d make it democratic and resign.

    Could Lord Foulkes be party leader?

  40. ‘For £50,000 I’d advise them how to avoid pitfalls like that. In fact I’m open to offers to be party leader if the price is right. I could never be a member of a leadership cult unless they made me leader first, and then I’d make it democratic and resign.’

    What ‘leadership cult’? the SNP is one big ‘leadership cult’

  41. Colin

    “ROBBIE ALIVE

    ‘Scotland, which experienced negative economic growth in the last 2 quarters’

    I didn’t realise that !”

    Since his data is wrong, it’s not surprising that you didn’t realise it.

    In Q1 2011, The UK quarter on quarter growth rate was 0.5%. Scotland’s was 0.1%

    Both were negative in Q4 2010.

  42. An actual polling related question!

    Which pollster was the most accurate in 2005/2010?
    As far as I can tell, for 2010, they were all fairly accurate at predicting the Tory vote share, close to the Labour vote share but the LibDems were out because the ‘Cleggmania’ effect hadn’t yet worn off.

    Seems the long-term trends for all pollsters seem to be somewhat out from one another, so it’ll help me judge them more clearly.

    At the moment, I trust Yougov the most simply because the sheer volume of data – part of the problem with the monthly polls is that you only capture a snapshot of that month which may not account for temporary polling effects.

  43. So in Scotland

    GDP 2010 Q4 was – 0.4%
    2011 Q1 0.1%

    Hmm. If not technically in recession, hardly signs of vigorous growth!

  44. People who say that the general public are not interested/bored with the hacking stories are not correct. For instance this morning I was running with a group of local women and the conversation was all about the hacking saga and everyone said they did not believe any of the people questioned yesterday and felt that the politicians, police and NI were all in it together. No one talked about their party affiliations but as I live in a safe Tory seat I am assuming some of these women were Tory supporters.

  45. Does anybody know who the senior civil servant that Nick Raynsford was talking about:

    “Will the prime minister confirm that, a year ago, during the period when Mr Coulson was director of communications, the cabinet secretary was alerted to evidence of illegal phone hacking, covert surveillance and hostile media briefing directed against a senior official in the government service?”

    There was also a suggestion from the Tory side that somebody “at the very top” put a stop to a wider phone tapping investigation in 2006. That would reflect badly on Labour, I suspect. Anybody come across more about that?

    Doesn’t really go away does it?

  46. Valerie

    “hardly signs of vigorous growth!”

    Indeed – but I wasn’t making any claim that it was. Simply that the data being quoted was wrong.

  47. If we are doing anecdotal evidence, in my office there was widespread hilarity about the shaving cream pie and complete and utter cynicism about every word of the Murdoch and Brooks evidence…especially Brooks.

    I think it was a (minor) error for Cameron to keep referring to what she had said as corroboration of his bona fides.

  48. @Nick Poole

    Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Blair’s lot were implicated but though Rupert tried his best to embroil Gordon in the mesh, the fact they assassinated his character speaks volumes about Gordon’s involvement with NI.

  49. For crying out loud please no! If people reading this blog aren’t aware that anecdotal evidence is of little or no worth then I’ve been wasting by time for 6 years.

  50. Oh and there was also a large buy-in to conspiracy theory about Dean Hoares death. So I’m not sure my lot are a particularly sensible group of voters!

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