A small avalanche of polling tonight – as well as the daily YouGov poll in the Sun, which will be up at 10pm, there is also the monthly Populus poll for the Times at 8pm*, the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian at some unspecified time (though “later than usual”), and a ComRes poll on the ITV News at Ten. I’m out at a meeting this evening, so ICM or Populus may sneak out before I’m home. If so, feel free to use this post to discuss them.

(*Sam Coates at the Times says there are “unexpected results” in the Populus poll. But then again, he wouldn’t say “deathly dull, don’t bother reading” ;) )


66 Responses to “Extravaganza of polls tonight…”

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  1. Also from Times’ Twitter:

    Has your opinion of Ed Miliband post hacking gone up or down or unchanged. Up: 14, Down: 20, Unchanged 61

    Has your opinion of David Cameron post hacking hone up down or unchanged. Up: 4 per cent. Down 39 per cent. Unchanged 55 per cent.

    Has your opinion of Nick Clegg post hacking gone up down or unchanged. Up: 4, Down 27, Unchanged 65.

    So people think worse of all of them, even (on balance) Miliband? Surprised at that. Also surprised at the divergent polls…

  2. simon m

    “Looks like we’re entering a period of divergence in the polls again…”

    Well LD’s only team up in the first two so far….Lab badly down in ICM/ Tories badly down in Populus

  3. Tory drop doesn’t look so bad now it looks like it’s gone to the LDs and Others.

    Still a little sceptical, though. The change is against the previous Times poll which had the Tories doing a bit better than most of the other polls at the time.

  4. Robert C

    “LDs at 12% in Scotland according to YouGov yesterday.” Discounting the huge switch from Labour to LD in a single day :-) it was that kind of direction of change which I thought might prove interesting.

    If the LDs who moved to Labour (replacing their losses to the SNP) have moved away again, while the SNP continue to gain / stay stable, then that would be interesting.

  5. @ Tristan Perry:

    Those are pretty poorly-chosen questions that are not very illuminating. The answers are generally going to be largely defined by party loyalty in the first place.

  6. Populus/Times: CON 34% (-5), LAB 39% (-1), LDEM 11% (+2)

    A slightly different picture with Con being the big losers and Others seeming to be the big winners.

  7. Seems a NotW whistleblower has been found dead.

    Not regarded as suspicious at the moment.

  8. Has your opinion of Nick Clegg post hacking gone up down or unchanged. Up: 4, Down 27, Unchanged 65.

    Bizarre that Clegg can be can be demonstrably on the right side of a major scandal like this and yet get no poll improvement whatsoever.

  9. Populus: Cons 34% (-5) Lab 39% (-1) Lib D 11% (+2).

    It will be interesting to see Yougov, the most indicative. Taken with the poll in the Indy yesterday that should give a good overall impression of what is going on. It is bit silly to start “jumping” with excitement over one poll – which could be a rogue. Circa 11% hardly a reason to get excited. But then again, if that is what get excites some people…..

  10. Simon M

    Still, surprised the support has come from Labour though – with Cameron under pressure, I would have expected it to come from the disillusioned liberal Tories.

    You are more right than me as far as Populus is concerned. Even so, encouraging 2% gain.

    Hopefully we will retain a dignified silence, at least until the various reviews have been completed.

  11. Sorry, I know this is a bit off-topic, but there is currently an absolutely bizarre discussion going on on the Guardian live blog regarding the possible identity of a poster who has been making comments that some might take to be in poor taste.

  12. Ghan

    ‘Circa 11% hardly a reason to get excited. But then again, if that is what get excites some people….’.

    Certainly not as good as 16%.

    However, the LDs made a bad tactical decision before the last GE that has cost us dear since, and a consistent revival across several polls is encouraging.

    Further more a number of posters on this site had concluded that the LDs were dead and buried and deserved to be for forming a Coalition with Tories.

    Never say die.

  13. I said I wouldn’t post, but here goes.
    Taking a single poll as gospel is a dodgy proposal – I find it hilarious when partisans of all stripes go bananas over single polls. (That isn’t meant to be a dig at the LDs, I find it funny when there’s an outlier positive to Labour and Labour partisans go bananas).

    Weighting the ICM poll against the previous month gives –
    Con 37 (+0.6), Lab 37.2 (-1), Lib 14.3 (+1.1)

    Tories have been trending upward since January, Labour have been down, up and now down again, Libs have been trending down since January except for the latest poll.
    So I would say the latest one is a bit of an outlier – but we’ll see next month.
    If Libs are up next month with Lab down, I’ll call it a trend.

  14. @ Tingedfringe

    I think the ramifications of the whole hackergate affair go well beyond short term polling trends. Our whole political establishment has been controlled for decades by two parties who have been abasing themselves to Murdoch. Their misdeeds are going to be examined publicly for months to come. This one will run and run.

  15. Tingedfringe

    Taking a single poll as gospel is a dodgy proposal – I find it hilarious when partisans of all stripes go bananas over single polls. (That isn’t meant to be a dig at the LDs, I find it funny when there’s an outlier positive to Labour and Labour partisans go bananas

    Good post if a trifle harsh on us LDs.

    A week ago a number of posters were attending our funeral, and dancing on our grave.

    So for the previous YouGov, and current Populus and ICM poll which indicate we are rising from the ashes ( and picking up a few points as well) warrants a banana or two perhaps.

  16. I think these polls will be all things to all people

    Cons will look at the poll where they lead labour and think “Blimey, things aren’t so bad at all”

    Labour will look at the Cons -5% and think they have the Cons on the ropes.

    The Lib Dems will look at the 16%, stop, reread the 16%, scratch their heads and wonder what the hell they did so right.

    I think there is enough for all parties to serve as a confidence boost after a turbulent week. It hardly serves to get too excited over a single poll, although no doubt many people will.

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