There is a [email protected] poll out that included a question on how people would vote in a referendum on EU membership. 33% would vote to stay, 50% would vote to leave. This isn’t much different from last September, when YouGov asked the same question and found 33% would vote to stay and 47% would vote to leave.

Extremely important caveat though is that this does not mean people would vote to leave the EU if there actually was a referendum. Learn from the AV referendum – before it was announced polls consistently showed people rather liked the idea of electoral reform. Polls for the first six months after it was announced tended to show the YES campaign in the lead. When the actual vote came it was a landslide victory for NO. Going back to 1975 and the referendum on whether Britain should stay in the EC, in the January before the referendum Gallup was finding people saying it was wrong for Britain to have joined the EC and that they would vote to leave. In the actual referendum the YES campaign won easily.

Historically early questions on how people would vote in a referendum have not proven to be particularly good guides on how people actually vote if one comes along.


484 Responses to “Voting in an EU referendum”

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  1. Colin

    you seem to be blaming Brown for Brooks making that disgraceful phone call.

    It seems to be Blair that reckoned there were more pressing issues than the press. It may well be that NI dumping Brown for Caneron played some part in his anger.

    But that doesn’t excuse the phone call. The behaviour of a sociopath.

    But this is pointless. You don’t like him, I do, sort of. It really doesn’t matter whether people believe he was a good PM or not.

    After his speech, Brooks resigned. It might have played a part. It damn well should have done.

  2. Nick Pooole

    What MIGHT hurt is if Labour can make a narrative out of the destruction of the BBC on behalf of Murdoch. Specially as it seems to be true!

    The argument falls down because DC has done quite the opposite. My only criticism is associated with World Service, but I bel;ieve some of that is being rethought.

    BBC has much to be proud of, but too much of the licensee money is wasted. I do not approve of people being paid much more than they are worth. Do you? If not I assume you applaud the cutting of excess.

    Also a number of times wasteful executive expenses have been highlighted in the press.

  3. Nick Poole

    “you seem to be blaming Brown for Brooks making that disgraceful phone call.”

    I don’t know what you mean-what phone call?

  4. I don’t really care about the pay at the top end of the BBC. I only got cross about the pay that top bankers get when they bankrupted the universe.

    I expect the BBC need scrutiny. I think they have an independent board for that.

    Which press was it that highlighted the “disgraceful” pay? The usual suspects?

    When are we going to do something about the pay in Banks at the top…bearing in mind they owe us a zillion quintillion pounds?

  5. Colin

    “Brooks rang up Brown and said we’ve found out your son is ill and we are going to publish it.”

  6. Chouenlai

    All in all, unless some damning evidence against Dave the Toff comes to light, where is their moral high ground?

    Your post indicate that there is alot in the public domain that incriminates Labour, but will it be effectively communicated?

    Incidently I used Toff in an ironic way, as it plays a part in ‘classism’ which I object to strongly as it divides the country, and as already said ‘is one of the last bastions of prejudice.

    I also used Mr Bean in an ironic way, as I like Mr Bean and don’t like …

  7. Those who say Gordon Brown should’ve launched an investigation into NoW & phone hacking whilst he was PM, don’t understand the Labour Party.

    The Labour Party leader does not have carte blanche to do as he pleases, even when he is PM. He is expected to consult with his cabinet colleagues & the wider Party; he is expected to take advice from civil servants &, absent any compelling evidence that the advice given is wrong, he is expected to take it.

    The leader is also expected to care about the election prospects of the Labour Party. Let’s be clear, any attack on NI which was not irrefutable, would have been a disaster for the Party. There’s absolutely no way, our leader would’ve been allowed to launch a ‘one-man’ campaign against NI.

    And the advice given by Gus O’Donnel was that GB wouldn’t have had sufficient legal grounds to launch an investigation anyway; the Labour Party would’ve absolutely insisted GB take that advice.
    8-)

  8. Been absent for a while; returned & found a few right wingers are providing balance to the discussion. A very welcome development, the constant left wing bias was getting boring.
    Because it has been going on so long, I’m not going to enter this discussion except to say that no one will come out of this smelling of roses. In the public’s mind it will just endorse what they thought of all politicians at the time of the expenses scandal. Power breeds corruption on the left and the right. What really gets me are those pretending to be so sanctimonious, when we all know they were as corrupt as the rest when in power. Only Dennis Skinner gets a clean bill of health in my opinion. Lol.

  9. reobert newark

    That does fit in with the poll that showed 50% of those asked didn’t trust ANY of the parties to sort it out.

  10. Nick Poole

    Oh -that call.

    Why should I “blame” GB for it??

  11. You seem to blame him for everything else.

  12. Nick Poole

    ‘I don’t really care about the pay at the top end of the BBC. I only got cross about the pay that top bankers get when they bankrupted the universe.’

    I totally condemn the bankers and glad you and I agree on something.

    I am just surprised you are not condeming excessive pay in the BBC. Do you not think it excessive or do you think it is excessive but it is ok because it is in the public sector?

    Lastly ‘Universe’ ? But Gordon only ‘saved the world’; is this a flaw in his character, or has he been unduly influenced by the evil world of NI.

    ‘I expect the BBC need scrutiny. I think they have an independent board for that’.

    I would say excessive pay breaches all sense of decency; would you agree that the independent board has failed?

    ‘Which press was it that highlighted the “disgraceful” pay? The usual suspects?’

    I think most papers printed the pay bands, required by Parliament. However, the usual suspects probably were the ones who highlighted other financial excesses. I don’t think it was BBC TV or radio.

    When are we going to do something about the pay in Banks at the top…bearing in mind they owe us a zillion quintillion pounds?

    You and I are reasonable people, albeit prone to exageration; I understood that the country was a trillion in debt; however some of the less savoury press have suggested it might be two trillion. So perhaps the banks owe us say 100 billion.

    I would like every penny they took or lost repaid. I am hoping as a taxpayer that RBS and Lloyds will do very well over the next couple of years and the govt will sell off the shares at whopping profit. Then some of the long overdue tax cuts that the ordinary worker deserves will be paid in full.

  13. Amber

    “Those who say Gordon Brown should’ve launched an investigation into NoW & phone hacking whilst he was PM, don’t understand the Labour Party.”

    Is anyone saying he should have done as PM?
    The question is why he & his Cabinet colleagues didn’t do it five or so years before , when the issue first arose.

    “There’s absolutely no way, our leader would’ve been allowed to launch a ‘one-man’ campaign against NI.”And the advice given by Gus O’Donnel was that GB wouldn’t have had sufficient legal grounds to launch an investigation anyway; the Labour Party would’ve absolutely insisted GB take that advice.”

    ………….so why did GB bother to come to HoC to stand up & “directly accuse the cabinet secretary of blocking his plans to hold a judicial inquiry into the affair.” ( Guardian REport ) ?

  14. Robert Newark
    ‘Only Dennis Skinner gets a clean bill of health in my opinion’

    Have you any evidence to support this assertion?

  15. I think Gordon Brown came to parliament with the intention of wrecking Rebekah Brooks’s career.

  16. Apparently Boris Johnson has suddenly spotted it could turn serious and has been having a go at Sir Paul Stephenson over employing Wallis.

    The Telegraph:

    “It is understood that Sir Paul did not take kindly to the attack. A witness said he asked what was wrong with hiring a former journalist if the Prime Minister could hire Andy Coulson. ”

    ooh dear

  17. @colin – Brown’s speech was in direct accordance with the facts. he did not like the phone hacking scandal, he suspected Murdoch had changed sides because Cameron had promised Murdoch everything he wanted re- ofcom, the BBC and the BskyB deal – Cameron was, in the matters pertaining to Murdoch’s direct interests Murdoch’s poodle ( just as Blair was), hence Murdoch’s support, what he said re a judicial inquiry was 100% accurate – Everyone opposed it, therefore had he instituted one he would have been destroyed for political vendettas against Murdoch in the face of police opposition. Significantly Brown prefaced all of his speech by saying since 2007 – he feels he acted in the public interest to shore up ofcom – disallow the Sky purchase of ITV shares and refuse to be bullied on these issues – and he stated – absolutely correctly that every single decision of cameron in opposition and Hunt in government has been word for word what Murdoch asked for.

    Note – he made no reference to thje previous Blair years!

  18. Colin

    I do not think Sir Gus blocked anything; I understood that he advised that should GB start an investigation just before the GE, following the rascally Sun changing sides and supporting the Tories, such action might be deemed political.

  19. @ Colin

    ………….so why did GB bother to come to HoC to stand up & “directly accuse the cabinet secretary of blocking his plans to hold a judicial inquiry into the affair.”
    ————————————————–
    Because that’s exactly what Gus O’Donnel did. If I’m aware of how the Labour Party works, don’t you think Gus O’Donnel might have a clue. he would’ve known that his advice not to hold an enquiry would convince the Party, if not Gordon Brown himself.

    BTW, I am rather surprised that people think GB’s anger was directed at NoW, NI, Gus O’Donnel or the Tory Party. It was, in the main, directed at the people in the Labour Party who didn’t back him when he wanted an investigation.

    Which is why I am rather surprised that the Tories in the House & their supporters on this board were so irritated by his speech!
    8-)

  20. @HENRY
    Inverted snobbery, blaming a stock brokers son/daughter, for their parents occupation and wealth, is the most hateful thing about the politics of envy. Blaming a 5 year old boy because his parents have put his name down for Harrow, is of the same ilk as blaming a child for being Muslim, or Jewish. When this comes from people who support politicians, that grew up with a similar level of security and comfort, the hypocracy becomes even more sickening.
    BTW, I was a lower middle class grammar school boy.

    Anyway totally agree with your attitude on this.

  21. the really big and damaging question for Cameron is why he didn’t hold the enquiry AFTER the election.

  22. ICEMAN

    Cameron had promised Murdoch everything he wanted re- ofcom, the BBC and the BskyB deal

    Are you saying that Brown said this and is he to be believed; did he include the fact that he had abolished ‘boom and bust’ in the same speech?

    If Cameron has or is planning to do what you suggest, have you any evidence to support this? All I see is some improvement in BBC due to curbing of excesses.

    Or do you disagree and believe that the massive pay of some celebrities in BBC is justified and fair. if so your and my idea of fairness and social justice is a mile apart.

  23. @ Nick Poole

    I think Gordon Brown came to parliament with the intention of wrecking Rebekah Brooks’s career.
    ———————————————
    IMO, Gordon is clever enough to know Brook’s career was wrecked already.

    His speech was a rebuke to the people in the Labour Party who told him to rise above the personal hurt which had been inflicted by NI, think of the Party & shut-up about the phone hacking until there were stronger legal grounds to pursue it.

    The Party was split as to whether Ed Miliband should also keep his head down or go after NI. Ed Miliband, who could not be accused of having a personal agenda against NI, chose to be brave & lead the charge. Ed would have known, that if he’d made the wrong call, it was he alone who would suffer.

    Ed knew he could be replaced as leader in time for the next election, if it all went to hell on a sledge. The risk he took was with his own career, he wasn’t risking the entire Labour Party.
    8-)

  24. In fact…if you think about it, the fact that GB had considered an enquiry must have alerted Cameron to the dangers of keeping Coulson.

    What was he thinking?

  25. @AMBER STAR
    I have already explained the reason for Tory annoyance vis a vis G Browns modest little statement. I was a good follow up to his “How I Saved The World” epistle. His skill in rewriting history would have helped in the script of “Braveheart” and numerous Holywood war films whereby the United States won the Battle of El Alamien, the Battle of Britain and Errol Flynn reconquered Burma single handed.

  26. I should have said “IT” was a good follow up.

  27. Amberstar

    I certainly agree about Ed Milliband’s courage. When he stood up and demanded the bid was blocked and that Cameron should support his call for Brooks to go, it just for a moment took my breath away.

    Let’s hope he can keep his political courage.

  28. Robert Newark

    ‘Been absent for a while; returned & found a few right wingers are providing balance to the discussion…

    Perhaps you could add ‘and Henry who clearly occupies the centre ground’

    It is not me who is left or right its the others.

  29. I think David Cameron is desperately trying to rewrite history. A history that says he was hand in glove with James Murdoch, Rebekah Brooks, Andy Coulson etc.
    A history which shows that he fully intended to see the BSkyB succeed.
    8-)

  30. Chouenlai

    It was a good follow up to his “How I Saved The World” epistle. His skill in rewriting history would have helped in the script of “Braveheart” …

    Some respect here please, GB did more than ‘save the world’, he did away with ‘boom and bust’ (something lesser people thought was impossible), further more he sold off all our gold – had the price of gold subsequently plummetted we would have made billions (ok it didn’t but how was he to know?), no wonder he is remembered for his prudence, and toasted by bankers everywhere.

    In addition he almost had a judical review of ‘press hacking and NI’

  31. Amberstar

    ‘I think David Cameron is desperately trying to rewrite history. A history that says he was hand in glove with James Murdoch, Rebekah Brooks, Andy Coulson etc.
    A history which shows that he fully intended to see the BSkyB succeed.’

    And is it true that Samantha C was bitter for not being invited to RB and Susan B’s sleepover, and really DC was quite pleased when RB got the boot?

  32. The Other Howard @ John B Dick

    “I am sure you are right that the public care a great deal, but I would ask for how long? …… As long as they see both Labour and the Conservatives clearing up their relationship with the press…”

    I see now where or rather how we differ. With the LibDems in disarray you are in a two party system where “the’re all in it together” whereas we have a five or normally six party system.

  33. We’ve had the high level resignations, bent coppers, a man with an axe in his head a past PM’s personal financial records acessed and perjury in a perjury trial.

    What we havn’t had yet is the sex scandal. Why not? We’ve had everything else.

  34. @ Henry

    Perhaps you could add ‘and Henry who clearly occupies the centre ground’

    It is not me who is left or right its the others.
    —————————————————————–
    You’re aving a larf arent yer! 8-)

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