There are two new polls out tonight. Firstly there is a ComRes poll in the Independent, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 40%(+3), LDEM 11%(-1), Others 13%(-2). Changes are from the last ComRes telephone poll at the end of May.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%.


20 Responses to “New ComRes & YouGov polls”

  1. I’m surprised that a 20% Labour lead in both the North and Midlands/Wales doesn’t show a more dramatic lead, but it seems it can be cancelled out by the South/London.

  2. Tonight’s YouGov (reposted from last thread to give link)

    Con 37%
    Lab 42%
    L/D 10%
    Oth 11% (UKIP 4%, Nats 3%, Green 2%, BNP 1%)*

    Approval 30-55 = -25%

    *You know what Anthony’s like with his rounding.

    Tables are here:

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-270611.pdf

    If the internet has given us anything useful it is the word ‘meh’.

  3. @ Roger Mexico

    …and surely a cat to pictorially describe your emotions;

    http://thelegendarybeek.com/boredcat.jpg

  4. Prefer polldrums (cc Amber)

  5. Possible convergence between ComRes and YG, but it’s only one poll so nothing to get overly het up about yet.

  6. @Alec
    Worse. It’s a dreaded “telephone poll” (or telepoll).

  7. @ Jim Jam

    :-)

  8. Can we extract anything remotely new or interesting from tonight’s two polls? Probably not, but here goes all the same! We now have two polls from separate polling organisations, using two different methodologies, almost telling us the same thing; a Labour lead of 4-5 points with the major parties on very similar ratings in both surveys. We must await further opinion polls but this could be the early signs of convergence, giving some credence to the view that we have an entrenched and possibly slowly widening Labour lead.

    By the way, buried in an article I was reading in the Observer on Sunday was a reference to some recent extensive polling commissioned by Michael Ashcroft on behalf of the Tory Party. Apparently, according to the article, one of his rather disturbing findings, certainly from from a Conservative point of view, was that, in the report’s words, “Ed Miliband more or less doesn’t have to get out of bed to be assured of a 40% vote share at the next election”. These findings were based on the post-election diaspora of Liberal Democrat voters, almost all of whom had found a new home in Labour.

    I therefore pose this intriguing question. Doesn’t the polling of the last 6 months, showing Labour regularly and consistently scoring 40%+, even at a time when their performance in opposition and Miliband’s leadership has been roundly condemned, rather suggest that Ashcroft’s baleful polling evidence is quite near the mark?

  9. These two polls show labour is gaining a bit, again, after their worse ratings, last week. although, 5% is a bit lower than 7%.
    On the economy i think there are some rather odd findings.
    The number of people who say that the cuts are necessary has fallen, the number who say its being done fairly has fallen too, but the amount of people who say the cuts are good for the economy has gone up slightly. Odd, isnt it?
    one other worrying thing (for David Cameron) is the fact that the coalition is now blamed by 26% for the cuts, while only 39% say its because of labour’s wrongdoing. finally, cameron leads only 3% on best pm. I think these figures shouldnt alarm CCHQ, but they should watch carefully.

  10. @crossbat

    “Can we extract anything remotely new or interesting from tonight’s two polls?”

    Given the changes in the COMRES then YES we can: Labour are beginning to show reasonable leads in several different pollsters.

  11. I would say Labour’s lead is now around 3-4% (given all pollsters). Labour supporters will be encouraged after the narrowing of the lead to 2% in early May; the Tories will be happy because their vote is still holding up remarkably well, despite the unpopularity of the cuts and some of the policies. So both sides will spin it (rightly) their way.

    Worrying thing for both parties is that neither Labour nor the Tories seem to be eating away at each other’s heartlands. The south still seems very reluctant to turn Labour – as would need to be the case in 2015 for Labour to have a realistic chance of an OM – but in Northern England (its heartlands) Labour seems to be gathering further support.

  12. Note: When I say the south needs to turn Labour, I mean that Labour would need to gain a substantial number of seats at the next GE when compared to 2010. Obviously the south will remain a Tory stronghold whatever happens, but Labour needs to erode some of the Tory support. There is still no sign of this, though this may change come 2015. Above all else, Ed Miliband needs to show that he represents affluent Middle England as much as the poor, unemployed and vulnerable. It’s a balancing act – but one which he must win.

  13. If the government can get some growth in before the next election, not cancelled out by repossessions due to rising interest rates (coming sometime, like it or not) while pinning some responsibility for tax rises and cuts on Labour, then the Conservatives could well win a small majority. No easy conjuring trick there.

    Other than that, about the same sort of result or slightly better for labour. No reason to expect a 179 majority: they’ve got the wrong leader for that.

  14. Saying that you have to admire Ed Miliband’s ambition, there’s not been many government parties in the UK chucked out on a big swing, losing that many seats and being then voted back with a majority in the very next election. You only have to look at what happened last time Labour tried this, not exactly a resounding success. This time, it just might work.

  15. Another bit of interesting news I tripped up on in the weekend press, linked to the untimely does of Christopher Shale at Glastonbury, was the Daily Mail article that featured Shale’s leaked memo on the difficulties facing Conservative Associations in attracting new members. Apparently, since Cameron became leader, and despite him reviving their fortunes somewhat, Tory Party membership has declined by almost a third in that time, falling from 256,000 to 175,000.

    I find this interesting and it rather supports my view, further reinforced by their lacklustre performance in May 2010, that they are far from the vibrant and effective electoral force that they once were. It is through this changed political prism that we should frame all our perspectives, making it even more unwise, in my view, to draw too much from the past in terms of predicting the future. It’s also why we need to be careful about over-interpreting current polling evidence, particularly in relation to leader’s personal ratings and secondary question responses. I think voter behaviour is much more volatile now and the main parties much weaker, with far looser party allegiances at play. This means that political sands now move in non-linear and far less predictable ways.

    The psephologists need some new models, I think!

  16. I think 2015 will be very open.

    I don’t believe in the rubbish that party x can only ever get 35/40% etc. of the vote. The ‘core support’ argument always seems weak to me. True, there is ‘hardened’ support, but I don’t think it is anywhere near as high as many party supporters like to believe! Labour scored just 28% at the last GE, and the Tories were polling in the 50s not so long ago. That really exposes the fallacy of this argument. Most people are pretty apathetic towards politics, and all political parties.

    I think anything is possible. We could enter a double dip recession, eroding public confidence in the coalition government’s economic policies. They could make catastrophic policy decisions in other areas. If this were the case, then I strongly believe that Labour will seize power with an OM (possibly even a hefty one) and Ed would become PM.

    Alternatively, the economic news may improve by 2015. The Tories will be confident if their polling numbers stay on 35-38% IMO simply because their plan was always to demonstrate patience and reap the rewards of an improving economic outlook, come 2013-2015. In addition to this, the Tories will feel that they can bolster and increase support (from an already high base, if the current polling numbers continue) by offering tax and other sweeteners to voters as early as 2013/2014 – this is already being planned, apparently. Just a relatively modest shift in public optimism may well influence voting behaviour and be enough to tip the Tories into the 40s.

    The picture will become much clearer in a few years time, I expect. By then, we should have a pretty clear view of who will likely win in 2015.

  17. Note: I have noticed that the bookies are currently making the Tories slight favourites, but I think the next GE is all to play for. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ed ended up with a big majority – but then, similarly, it wouldn’t surprise me if David Cameron and the Tories romped to victory. I just hope that Labour (and Ed) really start to go for jugular now, before the Tories can start to gain momentum in 2014-2015!

  18. On the question of whether EM’s ‘unpopularity’ or DC’s ‘popularity’ will have any bearing on the outcome of the next GE, there is an interesting short article on Political betting : ‘Will the leaders be crucial again in 2015?’

    This comments that “2010 was different. Even before the leadership debates, in February 2010 the public were giving equal weight to the importance of leaders and policies in their voting decision.”

    Are we moving further towards more presidential style elections? Or will people return to voting according to ‘issues’.

  19. Crossbat & Rob:

    I said a week or two (or at least, I thought I said. Maybe I thought it but didn’t say it!) that I meant to do a post summarising the current house effects of the main pollsters.

    Haven’t done it yet, but I’ve done some of the number crunching, and in the year so far ComRes’s phone polls have tended to show the largest Labour leads of all of the companies.

    Hence, I don’t think this poll is out of line with the ICM & Populus polls showing the two main parties neck and neck – the ComRes phone poll showing 37/37 in May was probably an outlier, this one a reversion to the mean.

  20. Can anyone tell me what selection crteri was made for the Ashcroft marginals, and if there are anyin Scotland?