Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%. Proper write up to follow tomorrow when the tables go up on the YouGov website.


73 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 36, LAB 43, LDEM 9”

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  1. The divergence between YouGov & the rest grows wider (at least for tonight). The others are pretty consistent, but so are YouGov. Since there doesn’t seem to be a national swing at the moment – Labour are doing much better in some places than others – one wonders if the sampling points are making the difference.

  2. I have been keeping track for months and it would have been nice for a new bloke, to have had the glory of a YOU GOV neck & neck, or a Labour 10 point lead. But no, just same old, same old. Just a word to some of the more devout opposition people. No hernia’s please, because its 7 points and not 5.

  3. @barnaby marder
    In my opinion, you are very likely correct. I move between my south eastern home and Hull quite often and attitudes could hardly be more different.

  4. Chouenlai

    Welcome to the most erudite political blog (or madhouse)! :-)

  5. I am interested, whether or not, ed miliband’s ratings have improved. Actually, it should, because he once again had a relatively good PMQ’s, relatively good week. Should go up.
    but that was what i thought too, last week, and i got it terribly wrong.

    i dont quite understand why there is such difference between YouGov and the other pollsters. Didn’t it have something to do with Newspaper’s weightings?

  6. if there is a clear divide building up between north and south this could bring lots of seats for the tories in the south, same number in the midlands and fewer seats in the north meaning on real change in number of seats.

  7. @ stuart james gregory

    i think you are right. By the way, im interested what the effect might be of the Strikes, next thursday. It’ll never be positive for the government. I guess, i guess, maybe labour might have a 10% lead by next saturday.

  8. Maxboere

    “Didn’t it have something to do with Newspaper’s weightings?”

    That’s certainly been mentioned several times (and trying to translate Scottish Newspaper readings into UK/English equivalents is clearly nonsense). However, IIRC Anthony said that this was a small part of YouGov’s panel selection, and it was primarily based on party identification after the UK GE.

    Again, that is misleading for Scotland, but as we are only 8.5% of the population, that should have a relatively small effect.

    What seems a more likely possibility is that YouGov’s range of panelists in England are more loyalist Labour than the Labour voters there in 2010 actually were.

    If a polling organisation are asking people who aren’t actually representative of the population as a whole, then their methodology might well be suspect – even if their product is cheap to commission.

  9. @OLDNAT

    “Welcome to the most erudite political blog (or madhouse)”

    Not the most mad house……..not by a very long way ;-)

    And facts are generally welcome…..not censored :-)

  10. Colin

    “And facts are generally welcome…..not censored”

    Absolutely! Evidence based political sites are sadly rare.

  11. There seems to be no change nor, thus, any change in the amount of change.

    So I have no comment, and have no comment as to why I have no comment.

  12. There seems to be no change nor, thus, any change in the amount of change.
    ————————————-
    Great, I have persmission to use my composite word: Poldrums.
    8-)

  13. OLDNAT

    “Evidence based political sites are sadly rare.”

    Evidence positively discouraged in some ;-)

  14. Amber

    “Poldrums.”

    Brilliant :-) :-) :-)

    Take a bow .

  15. @ Stuart james Gregory

    if there is a clear divide building up between north and south this could bring lots of seats for the tories in the south
    —————————————————–
    I’d be cautious about claiming the entire South for the Tories on this site. YG’s most recent London poll gave Labour a huge lead. I’d like to see another poll with a similar outcome before I get too excited about it; nevertheless, I found it encouraging for Labour.
    8-)

  16. @ Colin

    Thank you, you are too kind :-)

  17. Amber

    Poldrums

    I’ll add my unrestricted admiration for your contribution to the psephological lexicon!

  18. Amber

    “YG’s most recent London poll gave Labour a huge lead.”

    With all the qualifications about YG’s panel selection, I still don’t see London as particularly representative of the South East of England any more than New York City is representative of the North East of the USA.

    Big international cities have a dynamic of their own (and they often don’t see their hinterland as having any relevance to them).

  19. Welcome to @choenlai and @maxboere – not seen you post before.

    Polls seem a little static, but still with the divergence between companies. It’s not a bad position for Labour in any of them, given the pasting they took in 2010, but equally the Tories might think that they aren’t in too bad a position either.
    Poldrums is just about the perfect word for it.

    It will be interesting to see what impact the developing Euro crisis will have on UK polls. In many ways, it’s nothing to do with us, but if a Greek default sparks another round of financial panic it wouldn’t be great for the economy, but would the government get the blame?

    Even if it doesn’t get directly blamed, it wouldn’t be good for the government as they are relying on 2014 tax cuts, so anything that dampens or reverses the recovery would not be good news.

    Much effort being made to avoid a Greek default, including the Treasury asking UK banks to take a loss on Greek bonds in a non default default. All a bit pointless, as very quietly Ireland has already defaulted. It’s only a matter of time for Greece, but they are trying to find a form of default that they can pretend is a restructuring, not a default. Pointless.

  20. @ Old Nat (from the last thread)

    “I had a wee chat with the Inverclyde Labour candidate today, as we arrived at the same house at the same time (under the prison walls!) Seems a nice chap.

    If he wins, Barney should have no fears. He won’t rock the boat at all, and will loyally vote for the party on all kinds of English issues that he hasn’t a clue about.

    I found his a strange campaigning style, though. Accompanied by 7 or 8 supporters who didn’t seem to be doing anything other than milling around – using loud “unrespectable” language in a “respectable” part of the town.

    In the context of the previous thread, that perhaps makes me a “social conservative” in that, while I use the “F” word myself in private, I suspect that using it while canvassing/leafletting or being part of the candidate’s entourage would alienate many more voters than it gathers.”

    How awkward. I’m glad the two of you hit it off though. I don’t think I’ve ever had anything like that happen to me. I don’t think I’ve ever met a political candidate I was opposing, let alone while canvassing against them. I’m sure if that ever happenned I would act as you did. FYI, I admire you for your active and fearless canvassing.

    As for kids using the f-word, doesn’t seem like a big deal unless they’re being extraordinarily loud and being noticeable aggressive with each other. Having people stand around and be useless is a problem for any political campaign but not unique to this candidate. Then again, if you have some lousy volunteers and fear what they might do outside your presence or if working the phones (I’ve supervised some horrible volunteers on phones on the one campaign I ever worked on).

  21. Usual nonsense from YouGov then.

    And no, London is obviously not part of the South East in terms of voting patterns. Let’s not go over that again,

  22. @ Colin

    “Not the most mad house…..not by a very long way ”

    I would tend to agree. I know I must drive you all nuts with bringing up U.S. politics (and wild political stories that are a virtual impossibility in the UK) but you guys tend to know more far more about U.S. politics and public policy than most American bloggers do. And you’re far more civil, polite, and enjoyable to blog with.

  23. @Sergio – correct, London isn’t representative of the South East as a whole, but as it currently contains 11.2% of all parliamentary seats, it is pretty important.

  24. @ Old Nat

    “With all the qualifications about YG’s panel selection, I still don’t see London as particularly representative of the South East of England any more than New York City is representative of the North East of the USA.

    Big international cities have a dynamic of their own (and they often don’t see their hinterland as having any relevance to them).”

    Yeah, that’s true. I rarely think about that.

    San Francisco might be an exception to that rule but it’s a far smaller city and far less international/imporant than London or NYC.

    London’s voting patterns are still important (and Labour being at 51% of the vote is still significant) considering that London has so many marginal constituencies and used to have a number of Tory bastions and would seemingly be key for the Tories to win a majority at the next election. And as has been explained to me, “London” doesn’t include just the inner city touristy areas I’ve been too but the massive sprawling outskirts as well.

  25. @ Chou Enlai

    Welcome. It’s a nice place.

  26. The problem is that all of the major pollsters have tweaks and methods for differential turnout and honesty over voting intentions that were optimised for pre-2010 politics. However, with the mass post-coalition defection of Lib Dems to Labour, it’s unclear whether those methods still work.

    The first chance we have to see which pollster is right this time might be the next general election. And if a whole load of voters change their mind at the last moment again, we could be in the dark a lot longer.

  27. Incidentally – it looks like UK exposure to Greek and other Euro periphery zone debt is very significant – much more so than is apparent from the rather minimal direct loans from UK banks.

    Most of the core Eurozone exposure has been offset by Credit Default Swap insurance on the UK and US markets, meaning that we are, in effect, very substantial creditors to Greece, Portugal and Ireland. UK institutions would need to cover twice as much as German, Dutch and French banks combined.

    Oops.

  28. Alec

    I think we’ve already argued about this recently.

    London is the largest city in Europe, is politically volatile territory whose largest constituent of voters is Labour. We know that.

    Anyone who tries (disingenouously or not) to conflate it with the rest of South East is talking from their hind quarters.

  29. SoCalLiberal

    I’ve spent a little time in SF with my nephew who lives there.

    i found it surprisingly “European” given the huge cultural differences one expects between California and Europe.

  30. @socalliberal

    London also used to have a number of Labour bastions (in eg South London where I live) which are now Tory. It has always been predominantly Labour because of the general demographic you expect in a massive and culturally diverse metropolis, but pockets of it change over time, usually to reflect changes in a neighbouring area. Hard to predict and hard to generalise about.

  31. Poldum is a brilliant term – stuck in the poldrums is the phrase that must be used from now on when the political scene is boring – which fortunately it isn’t very often.

  32. Sergio

    I think you’ll find both “Chelsea & Fulham” & “Tottenham” are fairly easy to predict ;)

    But you are right, London tends to behave in an entirely different manner to the rest of the country.

    Also you are right that London is not part of the political “Southeast”. There are areas such as Medway which seem similar to the East End in terms of population but in general they really have nothing to do with each other.

  33. London is one of the leading global cities, metropolitan area population 12-14 million… for many in the rest of the SE (population 8 million) it is still “town”, or put another way London is their “hinterland”. Life without it would be rather parochial.

  34. Alan

    “Chelsea & Westminster”, shurely.

    Yes, London is not part of the political “Southeast”, and why should it be since most of its inhabitants are not from the South East.

    In summary, Amber, Labour is more hated in the South East than it has been for a very long time – don’t expect that to change any time soon.

  35. Kensington & Chelsea – d’oh!

  36. Sergio

    The constituency used to be “Kensington & Chelsea” if I recall. I might be mistaken if I missed a rejigging of the seat, but K&C certainly used to exist as it was Alan Clark’s seat for a while.

  37. Alan you’re right – C&W is the hospital where my kids were all born – a Freudian slip you could say,

  38. @ Old Nat

    “I’ve spent a little time in SF with my nephew who lives there.

    i found it surprisingly “European” given the huge cultural differences one expects between California and Europe.”

    Really? You know, I haven’t spent much time in San Francisco to agree or disagree with you with any certainty (I think I was last there when I was 2 years old). It’s funny that you think of it as European. I’ve always imagined it as this very genteel, refined, sophisticated city (at least that’s what I derive from the imagery of the city in the media). Yet, I have a friend who’s from San Mateo County who recently moved back east and she is insistent that the city is a “rough town.”

    What traits though do you attribute to a city that make it European? Having been to London, Paris, Nice, Avignon, Rome, Florence, Venice, Naples, Prague, Vienna, and Zurich, they all seem extraordinarily different to me.

  39. @ Billy Bob

    “London is one of the leading global cities, metropolitan area population 12-14 million… for many in the rest of the SE (population 8 million) it is still “town”, or put another way London is their “hinterland”. Life without it would be rather parochial.”

    It really is. I love London.

  40. Actually there is quite a difference between 5% and 7% lead. Each percentage point allegedly represents around 300,000 people changing their mind. That is of course assuming that polling can really be extrapolated to predict mass voting intention – if not, perhaps we’re wasting our time here.

  41. @ Sergio

    “London also used to have a number of Labour bastions (in eg South London where I live) which are now Tory. It has always been predominantly Labour because of the general demographic you expect in a massive and culturally diverse metropolis, but pockets of it change over time, usually to reflect changes in a neighbouring area. Hard to predict and hard to generalise about.”

    It’s counterintuitive to me that urban seats that become revitalized and see gentrification become more conservative. I’ve never seen gentrification in the U.S. ever make any place more conservative (if it ever makes a difference at all, it seems to do the opposite). It’s also counterintuitive to me that all these city centers are Tory strongholds. But this seems to be a pattern that repeats throughout Europe and in Latin America. I remember when I looked at the map of London in the 2005 general election. There were these four specks of blue in the heart of the city. They were surrounded by a sea of red which was in turn ringed by a lot more blue. I was genuinely confused.

  42. @Sergio

    “Labour is more hated in the South East than it has been for a very long time”

    Bit of a generalisation there. Whilst a good number of the inhabitants are as you say not from the South East, a good number of the inhabitants of the South East ARE from London. And this doesn’t lead to uniform reactions. My late mother (who left London for Kent) hated London. Whereas I (who left London for Sussex) still love and miss the place. Nothing atypical in that. I doubt there’s been much (or any!) polling on the reaction of Londoners to the hinterland and vice versa, but I’ll offer odds there’s no consistent pattern.

  43. @ Maxboere

    i dont quite understand why there is such difference between YouGov and the other pollsters. Didn’t it have something to do with Newspaper’s weightings?
    Actually I think it’s more to do with the fact that other pollsters weight for turnout, and re-apportion don’t knows based on guesstimates/’squeezes’, which Yougov doesn’t do until it’s election time. Take for instance the last ICM, which had a 8% Labour lead before weightings, and ended up in the published figures as 2%.

  44. @ Sergio

    In summary, Amber, Labour is more hated in the South East than it has been for a very long time – don’t expect that to change any time soon.
    ———————————————–
    I was responding to a post which said the Tories would dominate the South in general, not the South East. Therefore, I was drawing a distinction between London & the rest of the South.

    Rather than using emotive terms like ‘hate’, I was pointing out that Labour had come out rather well in a recent poll of Londoners.
    8-)

  45. @ Sergio
    “Labour is more hated in the South East than it has been for a very long time”

    I have lived in the South East all my 40+ years and still do, and to use the word “hate” about Labour sounds like wishful thinking. I thought this was supposed to be an “evidence” based site.

    My experience and opinion talking to lots of non-politicoes is that the opinion of Labour is incompetent, but not hated………though I wonder how long that can last with the volume of U-turns this government is undertaking (next: DNA records of rapists?). Forgiveness for being ‘green’/naive lasts only so long.

    And I can assure you every Tory party since Margaret Thatcher, with the exception of David Cameron’s Tory party, were all hated a lot more than the current Labour party.

    But if you spend your time with Tories…maybe hating the Labour party is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

  46. @SoCalLiberal
    “It’s counterintuitive to me that urban seats that become revitalized and see gentrification become more conservative. ……. I remember when I looked at the map of London in the 2005 general election. There were these four specks of blue in the heart of the city.”

    Those places, such as Kensington, haven’t become gentrified. They have always been gentrified. Some of the houses cost millions. Rich people tend to be more conservative, though that correlation seems less marked than it used to be.

  47. There is a big north south divide(minus London) according to the polls, however, one thing that is swinging them Labours way is that Labour have now taken the lead in the Midlands and have done for quite a while. In some polls they are polling higher in the midlands than they are in Scotland, which includes tonight’s poll. It could be this area that sways the next election, whenever it is, one way or the other.

  48. @Pete B
    Probably because for much of the time, their only alternative was a socialist party that were seeking to redistribute wealth (and did so fairly successfully if you look at where we were on the gini index). In these days of a multi-party (at least the pretence of one, anyway) system and a non-socialist Labour party that isn’t bothered about addressing inequality (it even risen above Thatcherite levels in the New Labour years) they’re relatively spoilt for choice.

  49. @ Pete B

    “Those places, such as Kensington, haven’t become gentrified. They have always been gentrified. Some of the houses cost millions. Rich people tend to be more conservative, though that correlation seems less marked than it used to be.”

    I wasn’t thinking of Kensington or Chelsea and Fulham or London and Westminster so much as I was thinking of Battersea and then (though it’s not in London), Hove.

    Rich people tend to be more conservative except in the United States. And the more urban and the more western, the rich people, the more liberal they tend to be. Which isn’t to say that there aren’t rich conservatives, there are plenty. But in comparison to London, if you go to any of the millionaire or billionaire precincts in New York City (places where networths and incomes are probably comparable to those living in Mayfair, Knightsbridge, Cadogan Cardens, Belgravia, Notting Hill, and similar neighborhoods), you will find overwhelming numbers for the Democrats. And the most leftwing ones too. That’s not limited to NYC either (the pattern exists in cities across the country).

  50. Unfortunately, the tables aren’t up yet (?) – so I can’t view approval.

    30-day weighted figure –
    Con 36.82, Lab 42.33, Lib 9.00
    Still showing a slow downward trend for Con and upward trend for Lab.
    A trend that’s been going on since 5th June.

    7-day weighted figure –
    Con 36.60, Lab 42.36, Lib 8.94
    Also showing downward trend for Con and upward trend for Lab. But unsurprisingly, a lot more of a turbulent set of figures.

    Weekly average of 30-day weighted (changes)-
    Con 36.94 (-0.16), Lab (+0.19), Lib 9.03 (-0.06)

    Weekly average of 7-day weighted (changes)-
    36.75 (-0.05), Lab 42.34 (+0.03), Lib 9.06 (-0.11)

    Weekly average unweighted (changes) –
    Con 36.6 (-0.2), 42.2 (+0.2), Lib 8.8 (-0.8)

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