Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. I’ll update properly tomorrow on other findings from the poll.


121 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 37, LAB 42, LDEM 9”

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  1. Have any polls been commissioned to show the size of Labour lead under different leaders?

  2. By pure chance I can respond first. Not sure there is much to say of profundity. Except that these media leaks, tittle-tattle and knocking copy don’t seem to have much effect on vox populi, who having been saying for some time that Tories feel their ConDem Government is fine for them, Labour voters (and deserting LibDems) are against it, the LIbdem vote has collapsed… oh and before I get reminded by OldNat the Scots live in an increasingly different country, where Cons and LibDems are wiped off the map, Labour just about tolerated, and ScotNats can do no wrong !

  3. Welsh Borderer

    What a silly comment.

  4. Anthony,

    I’m very disappointed that UK Polling Report has not even bothered to report on a poll that may signal the beginning of the end of the Yookay:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/support-for-independence-growing-1.1105921?localLinksEnabled=false

    … and that’s before we even get to the voodoo end of the market research game:

    ht tp://www.politics.co.uk/news/opinion-former-index/legal-and-constitutional/tories-contradict-their-own-interests-with-union-support-$21389217.htm

    I’ve been in a non-blogging mood recently, but this wee gem cannot go unlinked:

    ht tp://news.scotsman.com/news/Tory-Michael-Moore-should-engage.6781363.jp

  5. @OldNat

    Unlike you to resort to abuse not argument. Or was I too close to the truth ? I thought you thought Scotland WAS different ?! You are interminably asserting that. What part of my comment was inaccurate ?

  6. Welsh Borderer

    Of course Scotland has a different politics. Why you need to devote the first post on this thread to a silly distortion of the variant political strengths of the different parties is something only you can know.

  7. Some of the TNS findings – as reported by the Glasgow Herald:

    The latest poll showed 51% of voters under 24 support independence with 36% against. Those aged 25-34 were in favour by 40%, with 36% against, and 38% of the 35-44 age bracket were in favour, with 36% against. Over the age of 65, the figure is 57% against to 28% in favour.

    Women are 11 points less likely to support independence than men. This is mainly because the undecideds among them are 10 points higher on 23%.

  8. Voters 45-64 are not mentioned; does anybody have those numbers &/or has anybody got a link to the poll itself?
    8-)

  9. Amber

    “Women are 11 points less likely to support independence than men. This is mainly because the undecideds among them are 10 points higher on 23%.”

    I remember a discussion on a previous thread about more women being “undecided” (I think it was about VI). Anthony made the point that this is quite normal in polling on lots of issues.

  10. We get a new pole at last showing that that the EB media leaks did nothig, and it’s highjacked by the scot nats.

  11. Well said Roger Rebel!

  12. Roger Rebel

    Welsh Borderer introduced Scottish politics (for some unexplained reason) in the first post.

    Amber is not a Scot Nat.

    What are your views on this YouGov poll? – or did you just want to whine?

  13. @OldNat

    With respect I think you are misunderstanding the political mood in the rest of the UK south of where you are !. What I said is demonstrated clearly by polls over the last 6 months – that
    (a) there is a solid Conservative vote which is around 38-40% (in E & W) and is about the same as at the GE overall but in detail a bit lower in Wales, North & Midlands, a bit higher in South and East, and heading south where you are
    (b) there is an increased but slightly softer (as shown in local elections) Labour vote since GE, of about 38-41% in E & W but static in Scotland and
    (c) the LibDem vote has fallen substantially almost everywhere because of desertions to Labour (in E & W) and utterly collapsed to ScotNats (in S).

    @ Stuart

    Interesting – but is the Herald poll that surprising in the wake of the Assembly landslide? To some the surprise may be that even now on the crest of the ScotNat wave, with Labour led by a one-legged duck in Edinburgh, there is a clear plurality against independence !
    I wonder what a poll in E & W might say on the same subject at the moment …

  14. Welsh Borderer

    Since I made no comment about the political mood in E&W, I find it strange that you are suggesting that I misunderstand it.

    Interesting, however, that Roger Rebel and SWEBB are labelling you as a Scot Nat. :-)

  15. @Welsh Borderer

    There was a poll by Yougov, on the 10th May asking E&W about Scottish independence, if you missed it?

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-scotindp-engwal-120511.pdf

    +7 London
    +4 North
    -1 East/South
    -2 Midlands & Wales

  16. Roger Rebel,

    If you think that Ed Balls media leaks are more important in the grand scheme of things than the dissolution of the Yookay then you lack political antennae.

  17. Perhaps the only conclusion to be drawn from the polling pattern is that the froth and scandal and stories of plots and infighting only affects the tiny number of people obsessed with the Westminster Village.

    With no imminent election most people probably only have the vaguest idea of these shennanigans – and care less.

  18. I asked my non-political barometer(my wife) what she thought of the Ed Balls leaks, to which she replied”What leaks”. Like most tittle tattle in the politics bubble, it bounces around the bubble with such speed and ferocity, but hardly ever has enough strength to burst through the bubble into the real world…..the economy, well that is a whole different kettle of fish, which effects everyone.

  19. “We get a new pole at last showing that that the EB media leaks did nothig, and it’s highjacked by the scot nats.”

    The Scots Nats have done no such thing! :)

    I don’t think the poll results are surprising because nothing has occurred that would shift the polls in any particular direction. The releases about the plots against Tony Blair don’t really make an impact because while political junkies find them entertaining, they don’t reveal anything that wasn’t already known.

    If I may quote Seth Myers reporting on the book Game Change “Game Change taught us lots of things we had no idea about. For example, this one isn’t too bright (photo of Sarah Palin comes up), this one likes the ladies (photo of Bill Clinton comes up), and sometimes old white dudes still use the word “negro” to refer to black people (photo of Harry Reid comes up).”

    Gordon Brown didn’t particularly like Tony Blair and really wanted his job and used his close advisors to help him formulate a plan to make him Prime Minister. In other news, the Pope is Catholic and Elton John is gay. :)

  20. @ Old Nat

    “Perhaps the only conclusion to be drawn from the polling pattern is that the froth and scandal and stories of plots and infighting only affects the tiny number of people obsessed with the Westminster Village.

    With no imminent election most people probably only have the vaguest idea of these shennanigans – and care less.”

    I found it entertaining (at least the link Anthony posted) because it bashed Mark Penn and made him look like an idiot. If you had this “professional” class of politicians running all of your party’s campaigns into the ground and making massive fortunes off of it, you might be a little angry and a tad resentful. And you might enjoy it when their idiocy becomes highlighted in public.

  21. @ Old Nat

    I forgot to add that notwithstanding my little bit, I agree with you.

  22. To get on topic: The Balls documents.

    Were the documents leaked to the Telegraph by disgruntled Blairites? I think not.

    Anti-Ed agitators, nostalgic for New Labour, would leak to the Observer/ Guardian.
    8-)

  23. @ Craig

    Interpretation of England & Wales’ attitude to Scottish independence:

    +7 London (Scots keep nabbing all the top jobs here)
    +4 North (We’ll join Scotland, if it goes well for them)
    -1 East/South (Don’t go, you’ll make the Queen sad)
    -2 Midlands & Wales (Don’t leave us, we need you to beat the ConDem coalition).
    :-)

  24. Voters 45-64 are not mentioned; does anybody have those numbers &/or has anybody got a link to the poll itself?
    ————————————–
    @ Old Nat

    Thanks for the link. 45-64 age groups are 50% against & 35% for. Over 65 are against by 57% – 28%.

    I’m pleased to say, it’ll be hard to beat the over 45s. They are most likely to vote, they’re against independence &, IMO, unlikely to change their minds.
    8-)

  25. @Oldnat

    “the froth and scandal and stories of plots and infighting only affects the tiny number of people obsessed with the Westminster Village.”

    Even less when it’s old froth and scandal that everyone already knew about. Yet some of the incurably excitable types actually seem to believe this is the end of Ed Miliband and are ranting about this story in apocalyptic terms.

    Why they fear Ed so much as to expend such hyperbole on this mildly diverting Brown Blair detail is more puzzling. He’s safe but he’s still Ed Miliband.

    The biggest thing in westminster politics right now is the NHS reforms. The effects of those cannot be overstated and I’d be interested if there was any detail in the YouGov.

  26. @ Amber Star

    “To get on topic: The Balls documents.

    Were the documents leaked to the Telegraph by disgruntled Blairites? I think not.

    Anti-Ed agitators, nostalgic for New Labour, would leak to the Observer/ Guardian.”

    What would they gain from the leaks? If they’re disgruntled with Ed, their time would be better spent undercutting him in other ways.

  27. @ Mick Park

    “Even less when it’s old froth and scandal that everyone already knew about. Yet some of the incurably excitable types actually seem to believe this is the end of Ed Miliband and are ranting about this story in apocalyptic terms.

    Why they fear Ed so much as to expend such hyperbole on this mildly diverting Brown Blair detail is more puzzling. He’s safe but he’s still Ed Miliband.”

    Ed Miliband is far more talented and able than he’s given the credit for. That’s not to say that he’s the best leader Labour could possibly have. But he’s still better than reported.

    @ Amber Star

    “I’m pleased to say, it’ll be hard to beat the over 45s. They are most likely to vote, they’re against independence &, IMO, unlikely to change their minds.”

    I think undecideds in any kind of referendum situation are more likely to break against the yes position. I was proven right in the AV battle (though not on election night itself as polls began moving dramatically in the no directionbefore the election).

  28. @ Amber Star

    Btw, I’ve decided to use you Labour Scots as my inspiration and role models. You guys have 41 MPs in Scotland. I figure, if you guys can get 41 MPs out of Scotland, we in California can get 41 Democratic Congressmembers elected to represent our state. The state’s new Congressional map from redistricting just came out yesterday.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/incumbents-lose-democrats-win-with-california-redistricting-proposal/2011/06/10/AGYXoIPH_blog.html

    :)

    What’s really funny about this is last time, Democrats controlled the trifecta in Cal (as they do now) and controlled the redistricting process. This time, over Democratic protests, the redistricting was done by an independent non-partisan commission (similar to your independent boundaries commission). Typically, when parties control the redistricting process, they will usually draw themselves more seats, not less seats. And usually, losing control of redistricting will mean less seats, not more seats for a political party. At least that’s how it is in the other 49 states and presumably any other country that redistricts the way we do. But you know us California Democrats, we’re unique (or special). :)

    But anyway, Amber, you are my new inspiration and goal. 41 seats. :)

  29. @ Amber

    Meant to say, you are my new inspiration and your Labour MP count is my new goal. :)

  30. @Amber Star.

    “Anti-Ed agitators, nostalgic for New Labour, would leak to the Observer/ Guardian.”

    Who leaked the DM speech to the Guardian then Amber -and why?

    And is the timing ( DT leak re EB) coincidental?

  31. Interesting how the media (mostly right-wing!) are concerned with a Party no longer in power – and, if the Coalition have its way, will not have a chance of being in power for some 3+ years!

    Could it be that the Coalition is in a more fragile state than we already know???

  32. FPP –
    @ToryLord
    ” actually quite like you, you recognise that Labour inherited a booming economy from Major. Also the best you see for Miliband, is depriving Cameron of a majority next time.”
    Not quite – I see the best case scenario for Cameron being that he’s denied a majority or just about scrapes by because of a split-left. And then best-case he enters coalition again.
    The best case I see for Miliband is that the LDs do not have time within the 2 year ‘break off’ period to recover their lost voters (who would by then have solidified their view the LDs can’t be trusted or aren’t left-wing). He inherits a now booming economy (starting Mid-2013/2014) for which the Tories gain no credit. And like in 1997, he wins because he’s the monkey in the red rosette – with a percentage of the vote larger than Blair did (although doing worse in the South-East).
    (That isn’t to say Tony Blair or Ed M are a couple of monkeys – just that a monkey with a red rosette could have won in 1997).

    My 5-day unweighted poll is at Lab 42.8 (up 0.8% compared to a week ago), Con 36.8 (down 0.4% on a week ago), Lib 8.6 (down 0.4% on a week ago).

    My weighted against the past 30 days poll is at Lab 41.73 (up 0.2% compared to a week ago), Con 37.08% (up 0.06% compared to a week ago) and Lib 9.15% (down 0.17% compared to a week ago).

    Both show a downward trend for Lib and upward trend for Lab but mixed message for Cons – unweighted poll showing a trend downward very recently, weighted poll showing a trend very very slowly upward since the local elections.
    Not sure which I think is most accurate – but the 30 day weighted poll should definitely tell me when figures peak.

    And looking at the latest yougov – IMHO, it shows that the only way Ed is going to start gaining in the approval ratings (considering his own party’s split view about him) is if David M comes out in massive public support for his brother.
    I think the strategy they were going for before was ‘Get David to step out of the spotlight and let Ed take centre-stage’ but it seems to have backfired and made people think that David dislikes his brother.

  33. “These findings put into real doubt the assumption, which seems to be widely held in both media and political circles, that Brown was Labour’s biggest handicap in the election.”

    Explaining Cameron’s Coalition, by Robert Worcester, Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines and Mark Gill, examines the election and the events leading up to it through the prism of polling:

    h
    ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2011/jun/09/gordon-brown-not-labours-problem-at-election

    Labour’s biggest problem continues to be media imo. For those who dislike Blair, why was it that he and the New Labour project were, uniquely in modern times, able to break through this barrier of negativity?

  34. The Ed Balls papers in the telegraph were according to Mr Balls supposed to be transfered from his office at Dept. of Education to his office at the HOC. If they were left behind in error or went missing somewhere, I can’t see anyone on the Labour side wanting to leak. It is just not in their interest to do so, even if they wanted to undermine the two Ed’s. Why would they want the media to move from government u-turns, with secretaries of states jobs being on the line, to stories of plots within the Labour ranks. It would just not make any sense.

    As for Ed Milibands leadership, I think he has under performed. Nothing to do with PMQ’s, but I have not seen him making any speeches which have grabbed peoples attention enough to start any debate. Surely as leader of the opposition his role and that of his team, is to question the policies of the government, by going around the country listening to people to find out the issues they face and then to organise forums for debating these. Out of such forums, they then have a chance of trying to put together alternative policies. From listening to people, Ed Miliband and his team can also ask ministers questions about real issues and not just enter into punch/judy on whatever is in the media. Ed and his team seem to be stuck in the Westminster bubble, licking their wounds after losing the election and are letting the world move on around them. If the progressive (blairite) side of Labour are unhappy at the moment, it will be about the lack of any energy being employed by Labours top team to rebuild the party and to organise effective opposition to the government.

  35. @AmberStar
    “+7 London (Scots keep nabbing all the top jobs here)
    +4 North (We’ll join Scotland, if it goes well for them)
    -1 East/South (Don’t go, you’ll make the Queen sad)
    -2 Midlands & Wales (Don’t leave us, we need you to beat the ConDem coalition).”

    Or………..

    +7 London (You’re a drain on the economy)
    +4 North (We’ve always thought of you as foreign)
    -1 East/South (We don’t care either way)
    -2 Midlands & Wales (Some of us think we need your oil).

    @TingedFringe
    Your averages seem to back up Mick Park, Red Rag and others, that for all the recent news about leaks, the NHS, Question time etc, most people don’t care?

  36. This poll was conducted on Friday before the DM ‘speech-that-never-was’ leak had a chance to fully resonate in an “oh that’s what we might have got” kind of way (with labour supporters and non-aligned voters). Ditto it was at the beginning of the DT story arc vis EdM and EdB. Furthermore I don’t think anyone can confidently assert that all the ‘little local difficulty’ of the last 3 days has had “no effect” until this time next week at the earliest. To do so now is bonkers! I would assume some impact will be felt by Monday night’s poll at the very least: but whether the negative effect lasts (and who it benefits) are another two questions. It continues in a different (but allied vein): SN today are running with the ‘Miliband feud’ and the book by Hussein and Macintyre.

    I have to say- IMHO EdM being both:

    1) so fully implicated in the Brown plotter/ coup/ disloyalty (internal opposition hamstringing the government from effectively leading the country) shenanigans of 2005-2007 along with,

    2) the reporting that his was a key voice in convincing his brother not to topple Brown in early 2010….. but not out of some honourable/ noble loyalty to the Labour party idea- as other UKPR posters stupidly claimed at the time and since- but rather to self-interestedly position himself for his later Union gifted win;

    along with the poor performance against Cameron (set in stone now- it is not going to change that is clear = the dynamic is there for all with open eyes to see): it all screams loudly that the idea of EdM being the leader of the Labour party at the next election is dead in the water.

    Accordingly I think sooner now (rather than later) there will be a putsch unless he does what’s good for the Labour party and fashions a smooth transition. However, he has clearly thought strategically in the past about his own needs in contrast to what the Labour party needed at any one time so I am not optimistic about the latter scenario.

    He has done some good things- two in particular stand out:

    1) detoxified the Labour brand of uber-Blairism to defected green and LD erstwhile Labour voters- the one’s whose departure from Labour allowed Cameron to sneak into main party status at a time when the vast majority of the country was totally unconvinced by Lord Snooty;

    2) resisted the calls to jump into upon massive slate of ill considered and hastily assembled policies (again as many were asserting he should), that would ultimately not stack up.

    For these two matters alone he deserves mighty praise along with Labour supporters gratitude. But as someone who wants to see the Labour party win I am now prepared to state that the ‘give EdM till 2013’ mantra that I signed up to is no longer viable.

    He needs to go and go ASAP.

    PS it won’t- and should not- be DM: one from three of YC, AB or CU IMHO

  37. “Your averages seem to back up Mick Park, Red Rag and others, that for all the recent news about leaks, the NHS, Question time etc, most people don’t care?”
    Or that people had already made their mind up about whether they like the government or not – with a small number ‘returning’ to their parties for the local elections (I suspect that the LD numbers improved because for many areas, the LDs are the only ‘anti-Tory’ party to vote for).

    Ultimately I don’t think the Tories are going to get much more damaged in the public perceptions unless something truly terrible – major failure caused by one of their reforms or double-dip followed by stagnation happens.
    Their vote seems pretty solid at 36-37%.

  38. @ ROB SHEFFIELD

    Politically we disagree but I cannot fault your analysis of the situation regarding Ed M. Obviously I hope that he stays as leader of the opposition as I too believe he is unelectable.

    @ Ann (in Wales) Regarding yesterdays thread, yes we agree to differ but I wish you well with your gardening.

  39. @Amber
    I’m actually one Northerner who follows your interpretation.

    Some pretty damning figures for Ed Miliband in the report, yet there are a whole host of figures which would actually strengthen a social-democratic answer to the coalitions questions, if Labour bothered with that anymore (and not just desperately apeing the Torys)

    On the slut-walk/asking for it question, isn’t “harassment” a bit vague of a term? I thought it was specifically to do with the perceived clothing relationship with rape – something far less correlated than general “harassment”.

  40. (Following your interpretation in the sense I’m a Northerner who thinks of Scottish separatism like you said Northerners do.) – could’ve been clearer.

  41. @Rob Sheffield

    “PS it won’t- and should not- be DM: one from three of YC, AB or CU IMHO”

    Who is CU ?

    What about Hillary Benn. People like/trust him and he is a good parliamentary performer. I think he would unify the party.

  42. Chuka Umunna.

  43. R Huckle

    Chuka Umunna is CU (is was not a naught y abbreviation)!

    Oh God! The son of the Viscount?? The only thing he has inherited from his Father is that awful voice.

    He won’t unify the party as he is a Meacherite/ Lansmanite buffoon.

    A man from a past era- just like his old man.

  44. @Craig: “I’m actually one Northerner who follows your interpretation.”

    I’m intrigued, Craig. Is this motivated by the current government or is there something else?

  45. Dear Nats north of the ancient border,

    the more you keep hijacking these blog posts to talk of your destinies outside of the UK, the more I become persuaded it is all you exist for and want for Scotland. It seems to be Scotland independence or nothing, to the ending of the earth, so long as we be remembered. We’ll see what the upcoming by-election is like for you and whether the people share your oracle’s prophecies.

    As for the polls, I suspected the leaks wouldn’t have too much of an impact among the general public, they’ve heard it all before in the past, and I think Labour would far rather have it out now than in 2015.

  46. @Steve

    I’ve always believed the North’s representation in UK politics is as far removed – if not worse (they’ve got their devolved powers to offset measures) – than Scotland’s. The current situation is just another showing of it.

    As a socialist I’m completely unconcerned about nationalist borders/dividing England, and would rather join with like-minded areas than be hampered in a southern-dominated Westminster with Thatcherite-revolving-door parties for the future.

  47. Re the Scottish independence business, the feeling I detect among English friends and colleagues is that those who care at all just wish the Scots would get on with it.

    Many people appreciate the contribution that Scots have made, and still do, to the UK; but think that if they want to leave the Union they should just get on with it, or at least hold a referendum soon. It’s getting really boring.

  48. While Yvette Cooper may be a good replacement for Ed M (if they do get rid of him), she’d be an easy target because the Tory press would just run with the narrative, ‘She takes orders from her husband’.

    “-detoxified the Labour brand of uber-Blairism to defected green and LD erstwhile Labour voters”
    Perhaps this is the key to Labour winning (regardless of whether it’s under Ed or not)?

    Lab + Lib (30 day weighted, to eliminate outliers – July 2010-June 2011) never falls below 49.85% while it’s highest was 53.07%, when Lab were on 43.27% and Con on 35.69%.
    For comparison, at the Tory highest figure (41.93%) was when Others were at 8.01%.
    If we assume that 49.85% is the total voters who’re solidly Labour, solidly LibDem or swing between the two (LD in 2010, Lab in 2011) – then Lab has at max nabbed about 3.2% from the Tories/Others.

    If we assume that those who’re ‘solidly LD’ are 9% and those who’re ‘solidly Lab’ at 30% (using GB figures – not UK), that leaves about 10% who could swing between Lab and LD.

    So a centre-left ‘more liberal’ manifesto for 2015 – again, possibly with another, more charismatic leader, possibly not (if LDs hold on to NC, his ‘toxicity’ could push that 10% to Lab, even if Ed M is extremely unpopular – lesser of two evils).

  49. @Craig,

    Fair enough although I don’t think you can label Scotland as socialist. They are certainly more left-leaning than the southern parts of England (although not so much London) but not that far left.

    Are you from the NE? If so, how did you vote in the regional assembly referendum?

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