Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. I’ll update properly tomorrow on other findings from the poll.


121 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 37, LAB 42, LDEM 9”

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  1. @ SoCaL

    Why not JM?
    ———————————-
    I doubt he would get the backing of the Union Members. If there is another contest soon, there will be a ‘consensus’ candidate; any other candidates will be for the look of it.

    CU won’t stand, IMO. He will wait & see what 2015 brings. He is smart enough to know he’s too inexperienced to actually do the leadership job before then.
    8-)

  2. “This is the only thing that gives me hope – that it works out for Scotland & other regions chose to join until we are ‘Britain’ & the Rest of the South is England.”
    Perhaps we need Northumbrian and Mercian nationalist parties. ;)

    Break ties from the Saxons! ;)

  3. @Amber Star

    “I’d prefer that Ed M turns things around by conference; IMO he can & will.”

    Before we jump the gun and categorise Miliband in the same “dead duck Opposition Leader” box as the one that contains Kinnock, Hague, IDS and Howard, you have to be aware of the differing political circumstances that apply now. Those past, relatively hapless, figures were swimming against irresistible political tides and leading, for the most part, disjointed and dispirited parties. Whatever one thinks of Thatcher and Blair, they were substantial political figures and leaders who, in their pomp, were pretty much unstoppable.

    Now, Messrs Kinnock, Hague, IDS and Howard may well have had personal flaws that would have prevented then ever becoming PM, whatever the circumstances (probably true with Hague and IDS, but possibly less so in Kinnock and Howard’s cases), but they had very difficult, almost impossible, farrows to ploughs.

    Now, let’s look at the circumstances today. A patched up coalition of two parties who didn’t quite win the last GE is now in power and is being led by two politicians who, how can we say, ain’t no Thatcher or Blair. Much of what they’re trying to do, in so far as they ever told us what they were intending to do in the first place, is unravelling in their uncertain and callow hands. Their honeymoon with the electorate was a lukewarm and barely consummated one and economic times are bleak. If I was an Opposition Leader in those circumstances, why wouldn’t I have some reasons to be fairly cheerful?

    As I said before, it’s premature to draw any lasting conclusions about Miliband thus far. One or two recent polls have put the party he leads some 8 points ahead. Not exactly disaster-ville yet, is it?

  4. Amber

    Thanks

    Calm & measured as usual.

  5. @ROB SHEFFIELD
    I was going to congratulate you on your very sensible overview of Labour under David Miliband. I then noticed that you had gravely disappointed and discommoded David B. I feel any deliberate fracturing of La-La-Toy Town is cruel and heartless. I think you should say sorry.

  6. “One or two recent polls have put the party he leads some 8 points ahead. Not exactly disaster-ville yet, is it?”
    Just feel like butting in here – I agree with your general point (as seen in previous posts) that Ed M isn’t in the same position as Kinnock et al (although Kinnock is a bad comparison – as I’ve shown earlier), but..

    There’s been only one poll recently (June 6-7) where Labour were 8 points ahead and it was almost certainly an outlier.
    Before that you have to go back to April (although that was also almost certainly an outlier) to find the previous +8 lead. And before that, you have to go to March.
    If you go by weighted polls, the last time a 5-day unweighted average poll showed +8 was March 17th and 30-day weighted poll err… never – highest lead was +7.6% on March 15th.

    It doesn’t defeat your overall point – Labour have been consistently ahead of the Tories for 6 months (after the decline of the LibDem VI, following the tuition fees vote) and often as decently ahead of the Tories as the Tories were ahead of Labour in the GE – but I’m just being pedantic. ;)

  7. Stuart

    Con +2 NGA -46

    Small sample

    Surely ED M isn’t that good for the SNP? Is that because you assume he was the person behind the strategy for the 2011 campaign?

  8. @crossbat

    “As I said before, it’s premature to draw any lasting conclusions about Miliband thus far. One or two recent polls have put the party he leads some 8 points ahead. Not exactly disaster-ville yet, is it?”

    You really cannot have it both ways. First you (and every other socialist on the board ) say the cuts are bitter biting, cruel and unjust. Second you say Miliband has a 5 to 8 point lead, so he is doing well. Which is it ? If things are 25% as bad as you say, of course the opposition are in the lead regarding VI polls. David Milliband or Donald Duck should be in the lead if your narrative is true. With Milibands personal popularity where it is, what will happen when a bit of blue sky breaks through ? There is so much whistling in the dark going on on this site every day, and it is always the red flag being whistled.

  9. Billy Bob,

    Barney was quite happy to describe himself as “Scottish Labour Party” on the ballot paper:

    http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/ElectedRepresentatives/Elections/election_2011/constituency_results.asp

    … so it seems a bit odd that he is unwilling to be equally open and transparent when writing comments on a blog. Is he ashamed?

  10. @STUART DICKSON
    You can see from my name that I am not ashamed of my party allegiance. However, I do not desire to have Dave’s daft tree thing adorning my posts. Barney, I have always found a Labourite of considerable wit and charm, who does not need to “dress in pink” to make his comments heard. By the way, I wish your party every success in Scotland.

  11. Barbazenzero
    PS to my last post….

    “On reflection, I suppose the Inverclyde by-election might just be spectacular enough to persuade one or more of the three main unionist parties properly to Bavarianise in the hope of regaining some ground.”

    SNP would need to win by 2000 votes. Otherwise it’s “a protest vote” and “we’re listening” and business as usual.

    Tavish Scott might be for Bavarianisation and Murdo Fraser. I can’t see it getting anywhere with Labour.

  12. @ Stuart Dickson

    Barney Crockett uses his own name & has always made it clear that he is a Labour Councillor & was an MSP candidate.

    Your comments to him/ about him are rather silly & a tad ill-mannered. I will reply in kind – Are we to believe that under an SNP government we will be expected to ‘brand’ ourselves. Any failure to do so will be punished, if not by the law then by mockery & harrassment?
    8-)

  13. @Colin

    Observing the trajectory and difference of “TFB/GEER” these last months tells me that a good decision rule for any Labour leader would be to look at what they are saying…..and do the *precise* opposite :D

    Even Harris in the guardian said that they were harking back to the early 80’s- but interpreting that the Left then were right !!

    They remind me of the CLPD….and if ever given any influence (very unlikely) would produce yet another catastrophic electoral disaster.

  14. JOHN B DICK

    SNP would need to win by 2000 votes. Otherwise it’s “a protest vote” and “we’re listening” and business as usual.
    Possibly more. That’s certainly the reaction I anticipate whatever the result.

    Tavish Scott might be for Bavarianisation and Murdo Fraser. I can’t see it getting anywhere with Labour.
    Probably a pity for the L-Ds that Tavish resigned so abruptly, as he did seem to understand what was happening, even if he wasn’t allowed to say so during the campaign. OTOH, Rennie seems to have learnt nothing. Halving their 2007 vote in Tain & Easter Ross while the SNP more than doubled theirs is hardly an auspicious start.

    I agree re Labour and Murdo Fraser.

  15. I have been called a council school master here by Lord Tory. Marking Year 8 History exams at the minute, and next week A Level exams, on line.

    I am proud of being a public sector teacher, and hope to be one for several years to come; enabling young people to have the opportunities to become themselves, to realise their ‘telos’

    And as to Labour, they are not doing as badly as the media suggests.. They should keep calm and carry on

  16. @ Stuart Dickson

    “I must admit, I gave a wee cheer when Miliband Minor won the Labour leadership contest. (Although I kept my big trap shut on public forums like blogs: no need to alert the opposition.) From my own narrow partisan point of view, it is one of the biggest boons the SNP has been given since Tony’s early days.”

    Never stop your opposition from walking off a cliff…that’s what I say.

    @ Craig

    “It works in reverse; the speaker’s constantly accused of taking orders from his Labour wife.”

    And what pair those two are.

    @ Tinged Fringe

    “I saw similar things thrown at Hillary Clinton, with ‘Is it really Bill re-running for president?’ headlines.

    A Yvette Cooper victory in 2015 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 would make an interesting result though, considering Yvette was a policy advisor for Bill in the run-up to the 1992 election.
    I can’t imagine US-UK relations would be much harmed by such a partnership.”

    I didn’t know that. I like Yvette Cooper even more now! I love Hillary, did all that I could to try and help elect her, but I don’t think she’s running for president in 2016. Unfortunate but true.

    @ Old Nat

    “Also you get to chat about the Royals and the Head of the English Church.

    Happy Anglicising!”

    I thought about all the good Anglicans here yesterday. I was at the DC Pride Parade and saw no less than four Episcopalean church congregations marching in the parade and an Episcopalean bishop or two.

  17. @ Amber Star

    “I doubt he would get the backing of the Union Members. If there is another contest soon, there will be a ‘consensus’ candidate; any other candidates will be for the look of it.

    CU won’t stand, IMO. He will wait & see what 2015 brings. He is smart enough to know he’s too inexperienced to actually do the leadership job before then.”

    That’s unfortunate. You would hope that labor unions wouldn’t be so shortsighted and look for those who can push their agenda more effectively than one who can’t. If I was a union member, I’d prefer backing a politician who disagreed with half of the things I wanted but I knew would get half the things I wanted implemented as opposed to a candidate who would back everything I wanted but would never be able to implement any of it. I think that way when I vote in primaries except on certain fundamental issues.

    IMO, JM is far more like Barack Obama than CU is. Of course you can’t imitate Barack, just like you can’t imitate Bill Clinton. A lot of European and Canadian politicians have tried to do that and they’ve all fallen flat. JM though has some natural qualities (as opposed to painted on) that are like Obama and Clinton.

  18. @ Amber Star

    “Awesome, I will ‘hold’ you to that & keep encouraging you to achieve it.”

    Unfortunately, I don’t work for the DCCC. So I can’t tell them where to spend money and devote resources. :(

    But I am kinda excited about the prospects.

    I like how your boundary comission is non-partisan. I think all redistricting (when you have single member districts) should be done this way. I should be honest and admit though that I voted against this.

  19. Rob Sheffield

    “Observing the trajectory and difference of “TFB/GEER” these last months tells me that a good decision rule for any Labour leader would be to look at what they are saying…..and do the *precise* opposite ”

    I agree.

    My temptation is to say that I hope you are wrong,for party political advantage.

    But I agree because even the smallest possibility that those neo-marxist , anti-business, anti-aspiration, ideas could be put into practice in UK , would be a disaster of enormous proportions.

  20. Crossbat,
    Regarding DM,I believe that he had his moment inJanuary 2010.Basically he had his chance and he blew it.I am sure it was for reasons of honour and
    loyalty,but since when has politics been an honourable
    game?

  21. Chris Lane,
    I too am surrounded by what seems like thousands of scripts at the moment.Please, never,ever ,feel the need to justify being a teacher.I do not have to mark exam papers as I am retired and it is useful pocket money as it were;but
    I am full of admiration for those who mark external exams
    and hold down a full time and often very stressful job and
    as often as not, family commitments too.Without the input
    of teachers in marking these exams,the whole educational system would collapse.You deserve praise and admiration.

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