Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. I’ll do a proper write up of the poll tomorrow morning once the tables go up on the YouGov website.

So far I am not aware of any other polling in the Sunday papers.


104 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 37, LAB 42, LDEM 8”

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  1. Labour +5% looking like current norm. Not too shabby.
    8-)

  2. EdM’s speech to Progress has done the trick !!!

    ;-)

    LD number is looking very anemic over the last week….

  3. er that could even be anaemic !

  4. It’s well over two weeks now since LDs got more than 10% in a YouGov. They seem to have further to fall. Is there a 7% round the corner?

  5. @AMBERSTAR

    How on earth do you come to that conclusion?

    It’s one poll from one polling company.

    Why you Labour lot keep getting excited by one poll from one polling company is beyond.

    When are you lot going to learn you need to see what trend emerges from across the different polling companies before jumping to conclusions?

    Over the past week the lead has been +5,+3,+2,+6+,2,+5.

    That doesn’t look like a norm of +5 to me.

    There doesn’t seem to be any trend from YouGov at the moment.

    If anything they seem all over the place.

  6. It’s certainly looking like a large number of former LD voters in England have moved semi-permanently to Labour.

    According to Anthony’s Advanced Seat Calculator that should give Labour an overall majority of 31 in England, 39 over the Tories.

  7. Lib Dems appear to be on downward trend at the moment.

    Is this down to the muscular liberalism approach they are taking ?

    If the LD’s vote was partly from Tories living in areas where Labour are strong, it cannot help their polling if they appear to be going back on policies they previously appeared to support. e.g they wanted to close PCT’s and SHA’s within the NHS and have more local accountability; and they supported the Police being accountable to people elected to represent the public. They appear to now be against the legislation that is being put through.

    I actually support the changes that the LD’s are looking to achieve in the current legislation, but if I were a Tory tactical voter, I would not be impressed.

  8. Sky reporting “Huhne says he may have been driving the car after all”.

    What effect might that have?

  9. @Woodsman

    That seems a bit of an odd statement given the polling data. Could you back it up with some facts?

    YouGov did about 60 polls between February and April, all giving the Lib Dems 9, 10 or 11. The week before the election there was a slight boost with polls of 10 11 and a 12. This coincided with a decrease of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say Don’t Know. Since the election, YouGov have been given three 8s, five 9s and two 10s to the Lib Dems, with a corresponding reversion to DK figures as before. There is no pattern to suggest a declining trend, unless you’ve spotted something I haven’t.

  10. Oldnat

    “According to Anthony’s Advanced Seat Calculator that should give Labour an overall majority of 31 in England, 39 over the Tories.”

    Electoral calculus for the *United Kingdom* gives Labour a majority of 54 on these snapshot numbers….

    CON 37% 264 seats
    LAB 42% 352 seats
    LIB 8% 9 seats
    NAT 2.26% 7 seats
    MIN 1.29% 0 seats

    ooohh to be a yellow at the moment.

  11. Clegg will have to do something soon as it does look two party politics with the Lib Dems as an irrelevance unless he acts.

    His only move left is to play hardball on the NHS as not even Clegg is deranged enough to think Lords reform is going to be popular and detox him and the Lib Dems.

  12. Oldnat

    Someone was recently given a 6 month jail sentence for getting someone else to take speeding points for them. I think the person concerned was a Police officer, so it was looked at more seriously, but it would not be a trivial matter if proven.

  13. Colin Green

    I’d looked at the figures before making my comment but you’ve backed it up for me.

    There is a decline in LD share since 4th May. 10% becoming rarer than 8 or 9%.

  14. Rob Sheffield

    The UK majority would be greater for Labour. I was explicitly commenting on England because we have direct evidence from Scotland that the net effect of LD desertions has benefitted the SNP rather than Labour.

    I’m still assuming that Labour would get 40 or so seats from Scotland in a Westminster election.

  15. “His only move left is to play hardball on the NHS as not even Clegg is deranged enough to think Lords reform is going to be popular and detox him and the Lib Dems.”

    Cameron won’t let him: his advisers have told him the only way to seal-the-deal over decontamination of the ‘nasty party’ brand is to be seen as the ones who changed the reforms as opposed to be the ones who pushed ‘nasty party reforms’ that were then ‘civilised’ by the Lib Dems.

    An interesting scenario is building up on that one…..

  16. old nat

    “The UK majority would be greater for Labour.”

    Not on EC and on these snapshot numbers it won’t be (54 for UK wide)- and EC is widely regarded as the superior seat calculator available for Westminster elections.

    Incidentally EC predicts for East and West Scotland individually. Tonight’s numbers suggest that:

    – In East Scotland Lab gains 5 from LD and 1 from SNP; Tories gain 2 from Lib Dems

    – In West Scotland Lab gains 1 from LD and 1 from Tories

  17. The UK Polling Report swingometer suggests the following seat allocation:
    Lab 357
    Con 259
    LD 9
    Other 7
    N.Ireland 18
    That’s a Labour majority of 64. Factor in the effect of the N.Ireland parties and the Speaker and it’s a Labour majority of 76.
    Lib Dems would be in danger of being overtaken by the DUP as the 3rd largest party in Westminster.

  18. BBZ
    The by election wae in my own ward. It is again a very strong showing from the snp who did minimal campaigning. The dual attractions were A Salmond and frozen council tax. Labour and SNP both had good candidates and until a month ago it would have been very close. Tories and Lib Dems both put in a lot of effort fighting for third. No surprise Lib Dems saying in last minute leaflet that it was too close to call between them and the SNP. The area has very low unemployment, high wages and a lot of retired people.

  19. Rob Sheffield

    It’s a long time since I looked at Electoral Calculus. If it applies GB figures to Scotland (assuming a roughly similar shift recalculated to previous Scottish shifts, then that sounds about right).

    However, there does seem to have been a different shift in the LD vote in Scotland and England, and any seat calculator would have to take that into account.

  20. “Cameron won’t let him”

    Cameron doesn’t control the Lib Dem MPs. Clegg does.
    It still all comes down to a vote and one that Clegg might see as a win win. If he pushes hard enough he will get the reforms his Lib Dems want, if he can’t get enough and has to march them through the No lobby he will no longer be seen as Cameron’s human shield and a proxy tory.

    Cameron has his own backbenches to worry about who don’t want to give an inch over Lansley’s reforms whereas Clegg already said he would veto any changes he didn’t like and has been told in conference by the Lib Dems what he has to do.

    Clegg’s MPs don’t like the NHS reforms one bit but their problem is that although Cameron and Lansley aren’t trusted on the NHS Clegg is barely trusted on anything by the voter right now.

    As you say, an interesting fight is building.

  21. If Huhne were to leave the cabinet?

    Cameron would come under pressure to “redress the balance” by promoting a Tory.

    Nick Clegg would need to *maintain* the balance by finding an MP from the left of his his party willing to serve under a Tory PM.

  22. There doesn’t seem to be any development, certainly in recent times, that is taking Labour below this 40-43% range. The variation in the lead over the Tories (2-6%) seems to depend on whether the Tories get mid or upper 30s, and I think it’s fair to say that, allowing for MOE, Labour now have a 3 or 4% lead. It also appears that they have ridden out the Tory post local election and Referendum boost with two of the last three YouGov polls suggesting widening leads.

    What may lie behind the solidifying Labour VI rating? My view, supported by the local election results, is that the Lib Dem returnees have come home for good and I can’t foresee a set of circumstances in this Parliament that would see them switch back, certainly if Miliband and his team box clever. If you also then assume that very few people now indicating they would vote Labour in a GE tomorrow are likely to switch to the Tories, then that gives Labour a bedrock support of circa 38% in my view.

    Now, I take Rob S’s view that we’re returning to something that resembles two party politics again, but I don’t think we’re quite back to those good old days and there is still likely to be a sizeable others and smaller party vote in the next GE. Accordingly, 38%, with the potential for growth if some of the current Tory voters defect, isn’t a bad position to be in at all. As Phil said a few posts ago, if Labour can solidify their support in this 38-42% range, it’s very difficult to see how the Tories can win. Their 1980s dream scenario of a 50/50 centre left vote split , enabling them to win big with low 40s polling is now a thing of the past.

    The Tories best chance of winning an overall majority, even allowing for likely boundary change advantages, is for Labour to slump to lower 30s and for the Lib Dems to revive sufficiently for them to hurt Labour in their urban heartlands. Not a very likely scenario in my view, unless Clegg can somehow extricate his party from the deep hole into which he has plunged them.

  23. @ Old Nat

    “The UK majority would be greater for Labour. I was explicitly commenting on England because we have direct evidence from Scotland that the net effect of LD desertions has benefitted the SNP rather than Labour.

    I’m still assuming that Labour would get 40 or so seats from Scotland in a Westminster election.”

    I think those LDs might consider voting Labour for Westminster elections but I think the Scottish elections demonstrate that LD deserters are not a lock for Labour.

  24. @Crossbat

    “Their 1980s dream scenario of a 50/50 centre left vote split , enabling them to win big with low 40s polling is now a thing of the past.”

    Ditto- under a 2/2.5 party system- is the idea that the main opposition party needs to be a minimum 10 points ahead of the governing party to stand a chance of winning the election a year or two later.

    Though if the LD’s pull the plug (minority government rather than forcing an election) we could well be back to a 2.5/3 party system again…..

    @billy bob

    “If Huhne were to leave the cabinet?
    Cameron would come under pressure to “redress the balance” by promoting a Tory.
    Nick Clegg would need to *maintain* the balance by finding an MP from the left of his his party willing to serve under a Tory PM.”

    When Huhne eventually does have to go (missing his fingertips) I smell a quick forgiving of David Laws- who happily happens to be both a Tory and also someone who is a member of the Lib Dems

    8)

  25. SoCalLiberal

    I was assuming that LDs in most of the Central Belt would vote Labour for Westminster.

    That’s why I was suggesting Labour would lose few Westminster seats in Scotland. However, the likely scenario would be that many/most LD seats would become SNP.

    Scottish politics could, however, be very different in 4 years time, and it’s much more likely to see significant movement than England – where politics is still being fought within the late 20th/early 21st century context.

  26. “I smell a quick forgiving of David Laws”

    He’s under investigation by the police for his expenses claims now. He’s not coming back anytime soon.

  27. Rob Sheffield

    “When Huhne eventually does have to go (missing his fingertips) I smell a quick forgiving of David Laws- who happily happens to be both a Tory and also someone who is a member of the Lib Dems”

    That certainly seems the most likely scenario. That polls say Laws shouldn’t return for a significant time won’t bother the coalition. They habitually ignore polling on things which are inconvenient – as every party does.

  28. Reintroducing an MP suspended for filing false expenses to the cabinet to replace one suspended due to arrest would be a… Very Brave and Courageous move.

  29. David Laws; he’s not coming back anytime soon, regardless of what happens to Chris Huhne.

    Getting suspended from the House for 7 days may not seem like much of a punishment to us but it is a censure that no MP can blow past & bounce back into cabinet.
    8-)

  30. JayBlanc

    “Very Brave and Courageous move.” But only if there is an alternative party for English voters to choose who are upstanding, moral, and free from having had jailed MPs.

    Unless England is going to vote overwhelmingly for the Christian Party, then what option do the voters have?

  31. Amber – “not too shabby”

    For whom?

  32. “Getting suspended from the House for 7 days may not seem like much of a punishment to us”

    Even though that’s actually a big suspension that was the bit where he got off lightly. He’s facing a new police inquiry into aspects of his expenses that are, superficially at least, similar to some of those the Labour MPs are now being convicted of.

    If he’s very lucky the police will quickly give him the all clear, if he’s not….

    He could be finished as an MP for good.

  33. @Rob S

    “Ditto- under a 2/2.5 party system- is the idea that the main opposition party needs to be a minimum 10 points ahead of the governing party to stand a chance of winning the election a year or two later.”

    I could never understand that hoary old chestnut either, although I suppose it gives succour to those who tend to argue that however well Labour may be doing, they’re never doing well enough!

    For what it’s worth, my current reading of the political situation is this. While the opinion polls don’t point with any certainty to the outcome of the next General Election, Labour’s position is nowhere near as dire or doom-laden as some suggest. In fact, it’s really rather good considering their heavy defeat 12 months ago.

  34. As with the end of the world, the end of Labour’s poll lead, as predicted by quite a few on here after the local elections, seems to have been put on hold for now. Two strong showings on the bounce from YG must be encouraging for the reds, although it is only one polling company as yet showing a solid lead. If this continues, I would suggest it confirms that those who suggested the results showed a generally decent showing for Labour (ex Scotland) will be more satisfied than those who suggested the results were very good for the Tories.

    The weak LD numbers are interesting. It seems a fair assumption that they already lost many left leaning voters to Labour, but with Clegg now doing the dirty on NHS reforms and claiming he is on some kind of mission to block harmful health policies that he previously signed up to (literally, if you look at the forward to the bill) and voted in favour of, I wonder if he is now p*ssing off his remaining right leaning supporters?

    Tory backbenchers are certainly outraged by his behaviour, to the extent that they are now backing Lansley. I wonder whether Clegg’s duplicitousness is now losing him votes at the other end of the spectrum?

  35. Alec

    “I wonder whether Clegg’s duplicitousness is now losing him votes at the other end of the spectrum?”

    When I were but a lad, there was a song about limbo dancing (I think) that had a repeated line “How low can you go?”

    That song may have to be resuscitated for the LDs.

  36. There is a really interesting article by PK on YG.

    Wanted: A better capitalism.
    I don’t actually share all PK’s conclusions & something that I found astonishing was this:

    Markets are seen as flawed but necessary

    ‘The market economy – that is, an economy where most goods and services are provided by private companies in a competitive system – is the best way of delivering wealth and prosperity for society’. Here are the results:

    Britain %
    Agree 38%
    Neither agree nor disagree 30%
    Disagree 21%
    Net agree +17%

    PK’s conclusion, given ahead of the data in the acticle is: …we found widespread approval of the market economy, when we tested this statement:

    38% (+17%) does not, IMO, constitute widespread approval for a system that has been relentlessly ‘sold’ to us – by corporations, sophisticated advertising & governments of all colours – for the past 25 years.

    I am, quite frankly, astonished by this. The fact that the 38% aligns with the, so far, resilient Conservative VI is interesting.

    But far more interesting is the 51% who are not convinced & the 11% who seem not to have an opinion. Because, until now, I thought it was only an insignificant minority of die-hard lefties like myself who ever questioned the power of the market.
    8-)

  37. Well no surprise that you lot haven’t been raptured. (Incidentally there’s an interesting piece here showing that not even all those working for the operation concerned were expecting to get the heavenly heave-ho).

    This is really a steady-as-she-goes poll. All parties got some of their ex-voters on board for this months elections; the Lib Dems lost theirs quicker, though the others are going too.

    Nick H/Crossbat11 claimed that “the Lib Dem returnees have come home for good”. That isn’t really happening if you look at the most recent YouGov we have figures for (with LD at 10%), only just 26% have gone to Labour. They still retain 30% and 25% are ‘non-voters’. I can’t see this changing massively when we see the details tomorrow. The Lib Dems may be about to hit a life-or-death crisis, but it hasn’t happened yet.

    Scotland may be different, but across Britain as a whole that doesn’t make a big difference – only 2% of Lib Dems have moved to them, even if that poll (with the usual warnings) shows SNP 40%, Labour 28% in Scotland.

    None of this is a recipe for Labour sliding effortlessly to victory.

  38. @ Sergio

    Amber – “not too shabby” For whom?
    ————————————-
    Labour, of course. The Tories are stuck in coalition with the LibDems for as long as Labour are ahead. No quick dash to the polls or Tory majority is on anybody’s horizon, despite some of the mutterings we were hearing not so long ago.
    8-)

  39. Roger Mexico

    “even if that poll (with the usual warnings) shows SNP 40%, Labour 28% in Scotland.”

    The May average for the Scottish sub sample still shows a higher Labour score –

    Lab 38% : SNP 33% : Con 18%

  40. @Alec

    “I would suggest it confirms that those who suggested the results showed a generally decent showing for Labour (ex Scotland) will be more satisfied than those who suggested the results were very good for the Tories.”

    Playing down expectations prior to elections, particularly mid term local ones, is a game all parties play, as is the resulting post election spin. Baroness Warsi was “predicting” ludicrous Labour gains before the locals, saying that anything less than 1400 would be a “disastrous” showing for them. Conversely, Labour was predicting modest gains of 400 to 500, thereby enabling them to describe anything better as being a “great” result. We all know the score by now, which makes the post election analysis and discussion riddled with spin and partisan interpretation.

    The Tory post election spin, ably assisted by a largely compliant and supportive press, was that the results had been remarkably good for them. This narrative seems to have taken hold, enabling both the Tories and their press allies to bait Labour and Miliband about their “disastrous” showing. There was some good news for the Tories in the sense that they held their vote share to about their GE level of 36% and they also, ironies of ironies, benefited from the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Beyond that, however, the picture was more nuanced. They lost over 300 councillors to Labour, lost control of many councils, semi-collapsed from an already calamitous position in Scotland and remained becalmed and some distance behind Labour in Wales. They also remained very weak/anaemic in great swathes of Northern England.

    Still, hey ho, and away we go. A tremendous night for them on May 5th, so says the Mail, Telegraph, Express, Times, Sun, Star, Sky News, News of the World etc etc etc etc. It must be true!

  41. @Amberstar – I would agree that PK’s assertions run a little ahead of the evidence.

    Talking of the free markets, I’ve been watching the social networking companies and talk of the next dot com bubble. Linkedin floated last week and saw a massive share price rise in the first two days of trading. They are now valued at something like 28 times their income. It seems to be way beyond reason.

    In my mind, one thing is clear; whatever happened in the world of the markets in 2008, we haven’t heeded the lessons. Markets are wildly flawed and are unable to provide trustworthy valuation of worth or indication of risk.

  42. Labour’s position depends on two things….the LibDem slump being semi-permanent and Labour doing as well as its polling %…..

    It’s possible but Labour hasn’t recently achieved the latter. I think that the former part may be likely if in a slightly regionally skewed sense…but hard evidence for both is very thin….

    The Scottish election warns how quickly an modern election can slip away if there’s an underlying uncertaintty in voters’ minds about a prospective leader.

    Equally, this, like the 92 UK election, may be the election Labour did better not to win in Scotland….The sooner Cameron devolves more to the Scotish Parliament the sooner the SNP will find it difficult to evade responsibility for the realities. Alec Salmond like Harold Wilson is a strategist but usually in politics that only takes a party so far…

    I think there’s also a soft underbelly in both LibDem and Conservative UK vote that revolves around perceptions of being either elitist or old-fashioned/generationally out of touch.

    That may not yet speak loudly but if the going gets as tough as some think it may in economic terms then this government may be very vulnerable…

    But for the moment the only voice that matters is the government’s and until that changes much of the froing and toing is froth….

    That said I suspect something pretty significant has happened to Labour’s vote vis a vis the Lib Dems….and that makes it unlikely that the LibDems will do as well in the next election.

    IT may be that it will be better for the LibDem MPS to run on their old constituencies than run the risk of the fewer new ones…. The new 600 is where the strategic party politics abuts individuals’ ambitions….and it’s an instability that the loss of the AV referendum will only reinforce within the LibDem and Conservative parties with the passage of time….

  43. @Amber Star – “… most goods and services are provided by private companies in a competitive system”

    Except for instance – the Dutch state railway company which runs a larger train network in Britain than it does in the Netherlands (£3bn northern rail franchise).

  44. Crossbat11

    “Playing down expectations prior to elections, particularly mid term local ones, is a game all parties play, as is the resulting post election spin.”

    On this one single occasion, the SNP are exempt from that. Not even the central strategy team imagined that the size of victory was possible.

    Even Alex Salmond (whom I have never heard swear) was caught saying “F… me”, when he heard the Clydebank result.

  45. “Clegg now doing the dirty on NHS reforms and claiming he is on some kind of mission to block harmful health policies that he previously signed up to (literally, if you look at the forward to the bill) and voted in favour of,”

    Oh it’s clearly rank hypocrisy but the crucial thing for him is he wasn’t fighting for his political life when he signed it.

    For that matter Cameron signed it too so neither bothered to glance at them if their new found distaste at the NHS reforms is anything to go by.

    Apart from betting his future on the NHS I just don’t see what other option Clegg has. To keep on foolishly acting as Cameron’s scapegoat now would be the end of him.

  46. Labour should just carry on, keep out nerve.

    Ed should just plug away, remaining courteous.

    Voters did not want to hear too much in the first year after the Election.

    The country, I think will revert to the two party polarity, with LD’s being pulled to both poles

    Labour should, though, be proud of the recent generation’s successes: NMW, NHS investments, sure start, Schools investments, removal of Milosevitch
    Equality legislation. not a bad record

  47. OldNat

    Oh, I’m not surprised at that – was just making the mathematical point that even when the SNP shows high, not much of the Lib Dem 2010 vote goes to them.

    That said it will be interesting to see if there is a big boost in SNP’s Westminster numbers building over the past few weeks and for how long that boost stays.

  48. Heres news of a survey – okay, it’s not a poll – but it’s already causing political ‘fallout’.

    A survey of the country’s leading private healthcare companies showed that four out of five chief executives believed that the current NHS reforms would provide an opportunity for them to profit.

    Parthenon Group, a strategic consultancy that interviewed the chief executives, found that companies either believed that they would benefit by taking over services now monopolised by NHS hospitals, or that government policy would starve the NHS of funds and drive more people to take private insurance or “self-pay” – abandoning free care to go private.

    According to the survey, the overwhelming majority of the companies said that they were planning to spend more on marketing aimed at GPs.
    8-)

  49. Roger Mexico

    I’d be very surprised if there is significant change in the Westminster numbers this year.

    SLAB have to make up their minds where they stand on the constitutional issue and the structure of the party in Scotland.

    Once they do, and the reaction to changes (if any) in the Scotland Bill are the subject of focus, then things may change.

  50. Amber

    I though the 4-country Survey for Policy Network was fascinating as well. The four countries were Britain, US, Sweden and Germany and the different attitudes towards the market and the state fascinating. Too much to comment on at this time of night, but definitely worth reading through.

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