Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. It’s at the top end of the Labour lead than YouGov have been showing over the last two weeks, but is probably just normal random variation (before anyone asks, it’s too soon really to see a Ken Clarke effect).

Meanwhile, turning to the other cabinet member under fire, this morning’s Sun also had a YouGov question on Chris Huhne’s future: 49% think he should resign, 29% think not, and 23% don’t know.


348 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 42, LD 9”

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  1. @Neil A and Alec
    I don’t disagree with you. But we have to try to strike the right balance. where that is, i’m not sure I know for sure.

  2. @ Old Nat

    “Not to nitpick (though that’s exactly what I’m doing! )”

    You’re allowed to nitpick. :)

  3. SoCalLiberal

    Just watching a news item on Obama and Netanyahu.

    I’ve never understood why the US has tied itself quite so closely to Israel over the years.

    The Jewish vote doesn’t seem big enough to make the US act against its own interests, and the Christians seeking Armageddon and the Rapture can’t be a serious explanation – I hope!

  4. @ Alec

    “One of my experiences regarding the law was as a witness in a trial of a man who attempted to assault me while in a drunken rage. It was a bit hairy, but I was largely unscathed. Three witnesses, policed evidence of cuts on his fists (tried to punch me through a window) and aggressive behaviour to the arresting officers, but the trial was still touch and go. There were streams of character witnesses saying what a fine chap the man was, and how much he did for charities, but in the end he was convicted.

    It was only when the court heard about his 15 previous convictions (mainly assaults, including two on police) that we heard an alternative view on the man’s character. I still fail to grasp why juries get to hear about all the good stuff, but not the negatives. It’s very biased.”

    What strange evidence laws you guys must have. Basically, if you are going to put on character evidence about yourself as a defendant (and a defendant must open the door first), you need to have an amazing character that is absolutely stirling. Because character evidence is kept out unless you open up the door to it.

    @ Old Nat

    “It does seem odd. I can understand the reasoning for not divulging prior convictions, but if the defence decide to use character witnesses, then the same freedom should be available to the prosecution.”

    Under the federal rules of Evidence, it is available to the prosecution. Though there are other ways to get in prior convictions without the door being opened. Plus anything can be brought up on cross-examination.

  5. @ Old Nat

    “Just watching a news item on Obama and Netanyahu.

    I’ve never understood why the US has tied itself quite so closely to Israel over the years.

    The Jewish vote doesn’t seem big enough to make the US act against its own interests, and the Christians seeking Armageddon and the Rapture can’t be a serious explanation – I hope!”

    The Jewish vote was a major vote in states that used to be swing states (New York) and continues to be a major vote in states that are swing states today (Florida).

    The United States must remain a strong friend and supporter of Israel. However, being a strong friend and supporter does not mean unconditionally supporting every bad act your friend does. In a foreign policy sense, the U.S. can have its special relationships and friendships with other countries (Great Britain, Israel) but these relationships can never become like the one between Germany and the Austrian Empire just prior to World War I where it is unclear who is the horse and who is the rider.

    Netanyahu is a spoiled petulant child who has done his best to sabotage the peace process (almost as much as the late Yassir Arafat). I saw highlights of Obama’s speech and he said nothing that was anti-Israel. The complaints are ridiculous and over the top. If Israel would like to continue to defend itself and carry on without aid from the United States, they’re welcome to do so. As for complaints that Obama is calling for a withdrawal from Golan Heights, that is an issue separate from the Palestinian peace process. That area did not belong to the Palestinians and any resolution of that dispute is going to have to be done with Syria. But in terms of going back to the 1967 borders, there’s nothing wrong with that.

    As a Zionist (well maybe), I feel that the only way to protect Israel’s safety and security in the longterm is to have an independent, strong, and economically prosperous Palestine.

  6. @ Crossbat11/Nick H

    “In the case of DSK, I detected the presumption/assumption of guilt without any knowledge of the case beyond some likely journalistic distortion. I’ve seen it happen in other celebrated cases too where the drooling desire to see someone found guilty sometimes supersedes the proper and fair suspension of judgement.

    We know very little about what actually happened in that hotel room in Manhattan. It’s possible nothing criminal occurred at all, although a prima facie case has been made leading to charges being brought. That is very far removed from proof of guilt and it is quite possible that the accused is innocent. Let’s leave it there until it’s proved otherwise.”

    I agree with you. This happenned with Kobe Bryant. Obviously rape is a serious charge and accusations should not be taken lightly but the mere fact of arrest of a famous person should not be treated in a way that presumes his guilt.

    @ Neil A

    “At the risk of straying into devolved issues which, as an English bobby, I clearly have no right to have a view on, there are actually three possible verdicts in a Scottish court. Guilty, Not Guilty, and in the middle, Not Proven. There is a lot of debate about the value of Not Proven as an option for the jury. Some fear it is used as a “split the difference” cop-out by juries that, if they tried a bit harder and longer, could actually arrive at a more definitive verdict.”

    See I don’t get this because Not Guilty means not proven. I guess there are alternatives when it comes to issues of mental health (like the verdict of Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity) but that’s a far less common verdict in reality than on tv shows.

    Also….

    “I often think that there must be a better way. I think all of the admissable evidence should be pooled, and agreements reached about not just which evidence the prosecution can/will use, but what the defence will say about evidence that isn’t being used.”

    I think defendants have the right to a strong defense and that doesn’t mean handing the prosecution their case on a platter. Prosecutors have stricter requirements for evidence they must turn over but prosecutors have greater responsibilities because they are agents of the state.

  7. @ Old Nat

    “Just watching a news item on Obama and Netanyahu.

    I’ve never understood why the US has tied itself quite so closely to Israel over the years.

    The Jewish vote doesn’t seem big enough to make the US act against its own interests, and the Christians seeking Armageddon and the Rapture can’t be a serious explanation – I hope!”

    Here’s something else you must understand about U.S. politics and support for Israel. Jews are not only the second most heavily Democratic voting group (after African Americans) but are the driving force behind all the great liberal movements and tend to be extremely supportive donors of the party. To put it in perspective, there are now more black Republicans in the House of Representatives than there are Jewish Republicans (there’s one). It’s not like in the UK where you have prominent Jewish politicians for both Labour and the Tories.

    So you have a natural constituency on the left that favors Israel and other constituencies on the left who support Israel because Jews support their causes. Prior to 9/11, Muslims of Middle Eastern descent (as opposed to Black Muslims) were actually Republican leaning. Then you have to realize that Americans as a whole are generally not attuned with global events and what’s going on outside our borders. This is true of both those on the left and those on the right. This is true of Jewish Americans too. Therefore, most Jewish Americans will give wholehearted and unquestioning support to Israel regardless of what goes on there (mainly because people aren’t paying attention). So whatever policies of Israel treat Arabs as second class citizens and whatever policies of Israel are disruptive to the peace process, it goes unnoticed. Then you also have the “My Israel: Right or Wrong” crowd.

    But, in conclusion, that’s why Obama has to watch what he says closely and why there is the high level of Israel support here.

    I am a strong supporter of Israel. It doesn’t mean I turn a blind eye to what Israel does or believe that they shouldn’t have a role to play in the peace process.

  8. @ Old Nat

    “I’ve never understood why the US has tied itself quite so closely to Israel over the years.”

    There’s one other thing I should add. Israel works very hard to lobby the U.S. And one thing they do is they have a program known as “birthright.” I don’t know if you’re familiar but basically, Israel offers a program for all Jews (or at least Jewish Americans) to take a free trip to Israel before the age of 25 or 26. This is purported to be an all expenses paid multi-week trip to allow Jews to reconnect with their homeland. What it really is is a full on propoganda opportunity for the Israeli government to indoctrinate foreigners (through various mind control techniques) into becoming full fledged supporters of Israel and to look at themselves as quasi Israelis and not just citizens of their own country (I’d be curious to see what would happen to a young Jewish Nat who went on birthright). People come back from these birthright trips and take on the attitude: “My Israel: Right or Wrong.” I find this all to be very unfortunate.

  9. @ Alec

    “As a rampant leftie, I feel that the abuse of the legal system by guilty people is an assault on ordinary people.”

    I find the divide among British leftwingers on this issue to be really fascinating.

    When an individual is no longer able to walk down a stretch of sidewalk or spend time in a park or drive down a street because they fear a criminal element that is present, they’ve been deprived of their liberty and their freedom. So I see your point. On the other hand, I still believe in the importance of restrained authority and believe that getting smart on crime is far better and far more effective than being tough on crime.

  10. John Murphy said.

    These men were no more philanthropic heroes than their aristocratic forbears in the sixteenth and seventeenth century were dashing democrats on horseback….

    “A ridiculous generalisation.”

    I think on the balance of evidence rather than opinion it would pass as sound interpetation….if colourfully phrased.

    And again:

    “I disagree-Career politics & the Party machine / mafia have replaced civic duty with self interest , mediocrity & incompetence.”

    Strongly held beleifs are no more or less true for being strongly held….as our precher who’s expecting that today is the day to render this site pointless….only to clearly illustrates.

    @Amber:

    I wholly agree…but my point was if we get the analysis of the past which has helped to create the present problem wrong, we’re just as likely to seize upon another wrong solution

    Central to the problem are the copeting activism of a the media to find pursuing problems and subjecting them to instant solutions and the passivism of the citizenry who prefer to allow professional elites to proliferate and complain about their inability to manage things better….the poor social worker being a classic example of the professional proxy who is damned if they do and damned if tehey don’t.

    The oscio political torpor engendered by the comsummer society surely matches anything the romans manged with b read and circuses.

  11. @Everyone – it’s an interesting debate, but in the end largely pointless. We’ve only got nine hours or so left until the end of the world, and as it’s a weekend anyway there isn’t much chance of altering the legal or politcal system before we go.

    Anyway, it’s been very nice knowing you all. I’m spending my last day sorting out the garden. I very much doubt that I’ll be among the 200m people who experience The Rapture, but if any of you are, have a lovely time.

  12. Oh rapture, rapture…

    There’s a Gilbert and Sullivan chorus hidden in that singularly meaningful word…..

  13. @Alec
    On the bright side, we will avoid the Spanish Socialists’ predicted defeat in tomorrow’s regional elections, and the last impression will be the unexpected victory in Milan last week!!!!

  14. @Virgilio – always best to look on the bright side.

  15. Hmmm…no posts for over an hour. Perhaps the world has actually ended? May be I’m left alone, the last poster on earth, living in that biblical limbo between heaven and hell they call UKPR.

  16. @SocalLiberal

    “I agree with you. This happenned with Kobe Bryant. Obviously rape is a serious charge and accusations should not be taken lightly but the mere fact of arrest of a famous person should not be treated in a way that presumes his guilt.”

    You make the key point here and I’ve seen it many times this side of the pond too where people in the public eye are arrested and charged and the media then explode into an orgy of presumed guilt and character assassination. We had a classic case not long ago with a TV celebrity called Richard Madeley who was arrested and charged with shoplifting. Cue the tabloid newspapers into feeding frenzy. Many months later, but with the damage to his reputation done, he was acquitted on all charges.

    What was going on was a malevolent desire to see him proved guilty; the wish being the father to the thought. They we equating a police arrest and charge with guilt and, as we know, they are quite often two very different things.

    In the West Midlands during the 1980s we had a police crime squad who were routinely fabricating evidence and trumping up false charges. Many innocent men and women were incarcerated as a result. The rotten apples had taken over the barrel with appalling consequences. Always best to let twelve good men and true to determine guilt, in my view; not the police and certainly not the media.

  17. Alec

    “May be I’m left alone, the last poster on earth”

    :-)

    I had forgotten that this was the end of the world coming. I’m still around – though you may be the last surviving poster with good enough weather to be able to get into the garden.

    I really don’t want the world to end before I deal with that last patch of creeping buttercup.

  18. I should think Obama is looking to get Netanyahu out of the game and get a more pliant replacement.

  19. Neil A

    While there is still time I must thank you for your many contributions on this site in which you have educated us on matters of your specialist knowledge.

    There are many here, including myself, who have provided insights into a range of matters in which they have employment or other experiences and have offered a Murphy’s law perspective as an antidote to the theorising – whether about a celebrity accusation of rape or the organisation of the NHS – of those whose perception of everything is derived from the application of the tenets of a belief system, religious, political, feminist or even vegetarian.

    We have learned much.

  20. OldNat

    Creeping buttercup you can dig up.

    I’ve got more than an acre of Japaneese Knotweed which I am attacking by four different methods in different areas of the garden. After four years I am beginning to see some progress.

  21. John B Dick

    Japanese Knotweed – ouch!

  22. @John B Dick – before it’s too late, are you aware that Japanese Knotweed is the subject of Environment Agency regulations and that failure to comply with these could result in legal action against you? It mainly centres on disposal of any part of the plant or soil likely to spread the plant.

    It might be worth calling your local council – they sometimes offer services to remove this plague, sometimes free to residential sites. Of course, you’ll have to wait until Monday, but which time the knotweed problem could already be resolved, along with your garden, yourself and your loved ones.

  23. We’ve all been left in this hell to talk endlessly about polls whilst the saved are in a queue for The Rapture……

  24. John Murphy

    “whilst the saved are in a queue for The Rapture”

    If the queues are organised by BAA, then we probably come off best.

  25. @oldnat – “If the queues are organised by BAA, then we probably come off best”

    Well I never – those queues were organised? You learn something new every day – even the last one.

  26. “Hello, and welcome to Heaven. I am St.Peter, your BAA customer service representative. I am afraid that due to unforseen circumstances, your soul has landed in Hell on a separate flight. We hope to reunite you with your soul as soon as possible. In the meantime, here is a complimentary bag of peanuts whilst you wait in Purgatory. Goodbye!”

  27. It’s appropriate, on this final day, that all shades of political opinion are in agreement on something. :-)

  28. St Peter

    I admitted to my guilt in advance. Do I still get in?

  29. OldNat
    We’re not all in agreement. (There’s always one).

    Who gives anyone the right to define whether or not I go to heaven? And anyway, I want to define my own heaven, not have to put up with some version that’s foisted on me by the powers-that be! They’re unelected anyway, and thus have no mandate to govern. :)

  30. “… your soul has landed in Hell”

    Typical, Neil A has us all diong the “perp-walk”.

    There is still over 3 hours to go before judgement is handed down. ;)

  31. Pete B

    “They’re unelected anyway”.

    Well its your own damned :-) fault for living in a country which has bishops in the Lords.

  32. If the Rapture does happen, perhaps it’s just to get rid of the 3% of harmful idiots so that the meek can inherit the earth and we can live in peace?

  33. @ Tinged Fringe

    If the Rapture does happen, perhaps it’s just to get rid of the 3% of harmful idiots so that the meek can inherit the earth and we can live in peace?
    ———————————————-
    Aww, I thought we weren’t talking about about politicians today. ;-)

  34. Tinged Fringe

    A Golgafrinchian solution?

    But then we’ll be wiped out by an infectious disease contracted from an unsanitized telephone.

  35. @SoCalLiberal

    The major failing in the US’s political handling of Israel has been that assumption that they had to be nice to Israel because of US Jews. It’s so easy an assumption to make, but it’s also at it’s root a bigoted one. It declares at a stroke that all Jews must support Isreal, and that to be a good Jew you had to be a Zionist.

    That just isn’t true. And it’s become very clearly true now that Israel have redefined “right of return” to apply only to the right kind of Jew, making it even more similar to the “White Australia Policy”. Israel’s actions have become more and more unpalatable to Democrat, and even Republican, Jews in the US, and is only made more so by the “You have to support Isreal, you’re a Jew” line.

    There is no domestic political gain for Obama to back Netanyahu’s expansionist policies.

  36. @pete B – does the localism bill apply to Heaven?

  37. Re: Japanese knotweed. I got rid of mine by digging out the roots whenever it came up. The main roots were about three feet down and it took several seasons. But I suspect that’s an impossible amount of work for an acre.

    Perhaps Anthony could ask a question about the best method in the next poll?

  38. Hal

    The critical question is how did you dispose of the rhizomes?

  39. Well, I’m still here and if everyone else is gone to The Rapture I’m having a drink!

    I’ll make it a Hogarthian gin rather than a polite beer….

    Meanwhile, how was the end of times for you….I slept right through it….

    I observe if that preacher has third go at this prediction there will be those who’ll think ‘third time…’

  40. @jay blanc
    Forgive me for returning the thread to the UK. If this country had been very much more forceful in selecting who received British passports within these islands, as do the Israelis when selecting Jews, we would have a lot less to worry about. People have flooded into Britain who have no interest in Britain, democracy, liberty or anything most of us hold dear. A very large numbers of these economic migrants are here for a soft billet with no commitment to this country whatever. As some of us are aware, although it is played down,
    a captured Taliban is as likely to speak English with a Brum or Mancunian accent, as to be a native speaker of an Afghan language. What a brilliant forward thinking bit of planning.

  41. ‘People have flooded into Britain who have no interest in Britain, democracy, liberty or anything most of us hold dear. A very large numbers of these economic migrants are here for a soft billet with no commitment to this country whatever. As some of us are aware, although it is played down,
    a captured Taliban is as likely to speak English with a Brum or Mancunian accent, as to be a native speaker of an Afghan language’

    Far right wing tosh.

  42. @JACK
    You forgot “racist, xenophobic and anti-Muslim. The usual insults and untruths don’t change anything.

  43. Sapper

    After your “As some of us are aware, although it is played down,
    a captured Taliban is as likely to speak English with a Brum or Mancunian accent, as to be a native speaker of an Afghan language.”

    the charges of “innumeracy”, “invention of ‘facts’ “, “pretensions to secret knowledge” are more relevant..

  44. The rapture is upon us! Hail ye hail ye!

  45. @OLD NAT
    I have “connections” with an RE regiment which has just returned and was their 2008. Also a Parachute battalion
    which has just returned and was their in 2006, 2008 as well. I don’t mind you being a liberal, but don’t call me a bloody liar because it does not suit your politics.

  46. @hal – re the knotweed – it sounds like you might have broken the law, unless you dealt with the roots in a specified manner.

    Three minutes to go. As a renown pessimist I suppose I ought to say cheerio to everyone.

  47. @Sapper

    ‘ People have flooded into Britain who have no interest in Britain, democracy, liberty or anything most of us hold dear. A very large numbers of these economic migrants are here for a soft billet….’

    Sounds pretty much to me like the stuff said about the Irish over the years….Reasoned argument might suggest all migrants are economic….and in flooding over the Atlantic to the New Wrold, India and Africa we hardly brought the peace and harmony to existing polities…but then the conquest of Wales, Ireland and Scotland were hardly without their price either…

    And for all the negatives…many postives come from immigration and I for one think this country has benefited enormously from its rich heritage of peoples, cultures, nationalities and nations…

    But I only speak for myself….a quiet voice of reason….in the hubbub of hyperbole….

  48. Sapper @ Old Nat

    “I don’t mind you being a liberal”

    Your hatred of all things liberal seeps from every sentence that you write, festers in every phrase.

  49. I’ve been listeing to the radio most of the day and I still haven’t heard Blondie singing Rapture.

    Harold Camping is clearly a fraud. :-D

  50. Re: knotweed. Burning is the recommended method of disposal. Or maybe today it all gets sent to hell anyway…

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