There is a new online ComRes poll in the Indy on Sunday. Topline figures with changes from a month ago are CON 38%(+3), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 12%(-4). ComRes’s online polls tend to show smaller Labour leads than their telephone polls, but neverless this is the lowest this year.

Following on from the Populus poll this week, and the daily YouGov polls which seem to be showing a lower average lead this week than previously, the Labour lead does seem to have dropped slightly since the May 5th elections.

124 Responses to “New ComRes poll – CON 38, LAB 39, LD 11”

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  1. @ John Fletcher

    I was mildly amused by the Tory poll because it shows that:

    1) In order to appeal to non-Tory voters, they have to endorse more right wing ‘head-banger’ policies (Europe, immigration) which will be electoral poison in seats where they want to win against the Lib Dems;
    2) That they were unelectable because for some reason they are seen as a “party of the rich”;
    3) The poll, one of several aimed at influencing party strategy, was commissioned by Lord Ashcroft;
    4) They fail to see the rich irony of (2) juxtaposed with (3).

    “The Telegraph is going for Huhne”

    Like it did with Laws, Cable, Clegg, etc etc. So predictable.

    “Senior Conservatives have already questioned whether he wants to remain in his post after he launched a “theatrical” outburst against David Cameron and George Osborne.”

    Well, to paraphrase Mandy Rice-Davies “Well they would, wouldn’t they?”.

    I wonder what he has done to tread on the toes of Telegraph proprietors, the Barclay Brothers? They don’t have any nuclear interests, do they?

  3. @Pete B – “I would argue that all privatisations in the UK since about 1980 have been successful. For instance, Electricity and Gas prices are much cheaper in real terms than they used to be”

    It all depends how wide you draw the circle of judgment. In terms of short and medium term price and consumer choice, the energy market has been a success after privatisation.

    However, the national grid is falling apart, with huge cuts in maintenance levels that will eventually create real problems. Around 40% of our generation capacity is going offline in the next ten years and we haven’t a hope in hell of a privatised industry replacing it fast enough. The government had to instruct suppliers in the building of gas storage facilities so we didn’t run out of gas in cold weather. The DC interconnector systems now being planned for a critically important pan European power grid are all being pushed by governments, not the private sector.

    Overall, judged on any long term strategic basis, the privatised energy market in the UK has been a disaster – precisely because private, profit driven companies lack the long term responsibility to manage and develop such things where forward planning is more important than short term profit.

    On railways – speak to the relatives of the victims of Potters Bar. The court case was this week. Three private sector companies who between them failed utterly in the basic functions of rail maintenance, with directors shirking ultimate responsibility. It emerged that the H&S director of the company responsible for the lines at Potters Bar was paid a substantial performance bonus – for the year that the 30 people were killed.

    There are different ways of measuring success I guess.

  4. John F

    Oh I don’t deny he’s a clever man.

    The more “vested interests” he can identify and the more wedges he can drive between them the more successful the Tories will be: particularly at dismantling publicly owned institutions.

    Why, only yesterday Wandsworth Council have started to charge for entry to a park that is widely used at weekends saying “why should Wandsworth residents subsidise the children who come in to play from other boroughs.”

    Why indeed?
    Why should I subsidise the well-being of somebody else’s child?
    Why should I subsidise somebody else’s health?

    These are the questions the Tories want us to ask.

    Divide and rule.

  5. @Robert C – Lol!

    There was an article on Lib Dem Voice last year saying that that Clegg was pencilled in for a top Bruxelles post in 2014, and that the Tories were intent on installing a “friendly” repacement leader in the run-up to the 2015 election.

    While The Telegraph has been raising more concerns about Laws, the spin emanating from No 10 is that really he did nothing wrong, and that the government should not be denied his talents.

  6. Huhne has certainly copped for a few headlines this morning.

    Talk of a police interest in the matter too……..mmmm.

  7. Head of the IMF charged with attempted rape in New York.

    That job for/not for Brown looks like coming along sooner than we thought?

  8. Combined with the YG poll of last night, it does seem there has been a gentle uptick in Cons support since the locals. I think +5 on YG is now at the top of their range there (at the moment) and +2 is the bottom (a couple of weeks ago it was +8 to +4).

    But now the Coalition are back to governing, and getting in a pickle, I do think the Lab lead will slide upwards again.

    But this does go to show that until Lab can establish a clear sense of direction (not hard and fast policies as that would stupid three years before an election) and some sense of what they’d do differently (and for EdM to up his game) their numbers will be soft.

    Very susceptable to events and campaigns (where the focus is not anti-govt but on a choice between different options/visions).

  9. @Colin – I’ve been interested in the string of Lib Dem smears/exposes (depending on your politcal leanings). There have been very few similar stories relating to Tory ministers (or there have been but the press have not made a big thing over them). I am a bit cynical, but I do wonder whether this is part of a Tory led strategy with friends in the media chipping away at the credibility of their coalition partners in preparation for the next GE. A more innocent alternative of course might just be that becoming a serious party of government brings more scrutiny and they weren’t really ready for this.

  10. @Amberstar – read you post re Ed M on the NHS. As a rule I tend not to watch PMQs so have obviously missed this, and offer apologoes if that is the case.

    I still think that there must be something missing in Labour’s briefing work with the press though. This is the kind of issue where local media campaigns as well as national press can be very effective. Perhaps Labour have done this but the media isn’t picking it up, but I get the feeling that Labour in general isn’t offering a clear analysis of what the reforms could mean that can be easily understood by our somewhat dim journalists and editors.

  11. I always believed that is very hard (almost impossible) to make predictions for a GE that may be held in 1-2, let alone 3 years, and the Strauss-Khan-gate corroborates this position. Now the political climate for 2012 PE in France has, IMO, completely changed, and the most probable winner of this autumn’s socialist primary will be Francois Hollande, ex-leader of the Party. He was already rising in the polls before, and in the most recent poll he tops the presidential race (in the event that he is the PS candidate), but Marine Le Pen is a close second and our failure of a President a close third, so in can go in all three ways and the nightmare of 2002 is not at all excluded. Anyway, I think he will do well, because the right had focused all its (sometimes very nasty, but this is the French right we are talking about, they can be totally abject if the so wish) attacks on S-K and his relation to rich men from the financial establishment, so now they must devise a new strategy, but so must do we. The point is to convince voters that are floating between the socialist and one of the minor center-left and far left candidates that if they make the second choice, the whole progressive family might be eliminated from the run-off as in 2002. Of course Sarkozy will try to do the same with the prospective voters of minor center and center-right parties, so if this works also, we will eventually have a classic run-off between socialists and Sarkozy, which will be very difficult for the latter, given his unpopularity as an incumbent.
    Critical local election today and tomorrow in Italy, with all the eyes turning to the Milan mayoral contest. If incumbent mayor Moratti is not elected in the first round, the second one will be very tough for her, since the voters of minor opposition candidates will probably vote for her main opponent Pisapia. If Berlusconi’s alliance eventually wins, it will be just a status quo, but if it loses, it will be a political earthquake, since Milan is the capital of his financial and political Empire (in a Star-Wars sense!). So patience till tomorrow afternoon.

  12. @ Virgilio

    Surely it is better that the socialist position is weakened, as until now it seemed likely that the 2nd round run off would be between Marine Le Pen and DS-K, with the probablility that the Fronte Nationale would win. A run off between Sarkozy and Le Pen is far more likely to lead to the defeat of the FN, as in 2002.

  13. @ Robert C

    I was mildly amused by the Tory poll

    Yes, one has to be suspicious of any poll commisioned by Ashcroft. However it does show in my opinion that the Tories are already seriously planning thier strategy to win the next GE outright. Many within the Tories simply view this Partliament as an interregnum before they fully take over the reins of power and institute far more right wing policies. They know where they are going. At the moment can the same be said of Lab or LD.

    @ Woodsman.

    These are the questions the Tories want us to ask.

    Exacly right. The Tories want to reduce the roll of the state and they cannot do so unless a good majority agree with them. They want people to ask the question “Is this what I want “MY” money spent on”.

    For to long there has been a disconnect between peoples concept of Government spending and their own personal taxation. The Tories clealry want people to focus on the fact that it is their money the Government spends and not money from some bottomless pit.

    They then want them to ask themselves, “Do I support my money being spent this way, but not necessarily, is this money well spent?”

  14. You Gov
    Sunday Times
    36/41/9 approval -18

  15. DAODAO,

    I would sincerely hope that if the run off was FN vs the Socialists that conservative voters would hold their noses and vote against Le Pen, as socialist voters did in the past against her father.

    If I am wrong about that, then the French centre-right are no friends of mine.

  16. @Socal Lib

    If you live under a bridge without an address you can draw that and register that as your place of residence.

    Wow. I’d love to see a selection of those drawings.

  17. @ Virgilio/Neil A

    If Le Pen does reach the 2nd round of the next French presidential election in 2012, it is important that her opponent is 100% French and preferably Catholic. One only has to look at the recent 2011 Scottish parliamentary election to see the effect on the Labour vote (compared to 2010) of replacing GB (a popular leader in Scotland and son of the manse), with EM (a non-Christian foreigner from a Marxist background).

  18. “I would sincerely hope that if the run off was FN vs the Socialists that conservative voters would hold their noses and vote against Le Pen, as socialist voters did in the past against her father”

    They will- but not by the same huge amount as the reds did for Chirac last time around.

  19. RobbieAlive
    “If wishes were horses, beggars would ride”, I’d always just assumed was an old folk saying (the horses reference suggests that).

    Anyway I googled it to check, and it’s a saying that has been around since the 16th century.

    As SoCalLiberal suggests, you may have issues! :-)

  20. PS to my previous entry: my comment about the ethnicity of an opponent to Le Pen primarily applies if her opponent is Socialist. Sarkozy would probably get away with only being 25% French.

  21. Pete B

    ‘Many employers, be they administrators or nurses who think they work really hard, have never had a job in the “real world”.’

    Interesting. I used to work in the private sector, in a successful chocolate factory. I’ve also been in a hospital ward with a seriously ill child, absolutely reliant on nursing care to see us through.

    Guess a) which felt more ‘real’ and b) who was doing the more useful job?

  22. @ Old Nat ”
    “If wishes were horses, beggars would ride”, I’d always just assumed was an old folk saying … anyway it’s a saying that has been around since the 16th century.” As SoCalLiberal suggests, you may have issues!

    There is a related saying: “A Beggar on Horseback will Ride to Hell”. I.e, make a poor person rich & they will go to the devil.
    What SOCALLIBERAL said to me was:
    “Dude I think you’ve got some issues.” Classic Californian psycho-babble! I think we all know who is burdened with “issues” [yuk]. Anyway, I sense a selective Anglo-Scottish rapprochement in the face of transatlantic lunacy.

  23. So how do you get italics and bold font on here….




  24. Ah-ha.

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