Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. This is the lowest score YouGov have recorded for the Liberal Democrats since the end of January – normal caveats apply about not reading too much into a single poll, but it would not be surprising if a party doing very badly in last week’s elections suffered a further blow to their support as a result of being seen as unpopular.


122 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 38, LAB 42, LDEM 8”

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  1. @ Old Nat

    “Didn’t you know I was the reincarnation of Finn McCool – brought back to save Scotland? That would put me back in the Bronze Age, I reckon, so 1707 was only a couple of hours back.”

    Lol. Just as long as you don’t have plastic surgery to look like him.

  2. @ Amber Star

    “Oddly enough, I agree with you about the Scotland Bill. I am against independence but I can quickly see that the Scotland Bill is a trap.

    Alex Salmond will spend his 3 best years negotiating on this, waiting for it to pass through the houses & seeing what he has in the end. He can’t lay out the case for Devo Max when he doesn’t know how much or how little the Scotland Bill will deliver.

    David Cameron will run AS out of time on Devo Max. Then AS will have to go for a straight up or down referendum & risk going away empty handed, if it’s a ‘no’.”

    What would DevoMax entail? I think DevoMax would have a better chance of passing in a referendum than Independence would. It’s always easier to convince voters to say No to something than Yes to something (unless what you’re proposing on a referendum is legalized bigotry). The Labour tv ads against the SNP that are offbase against the SNP would be totally on point and highly effective in a referendum on independence. DevoMax though is a bit different and might stand a better chance of passing.

    Here’s a question, if Salmond and Sturgeon (I love that the two leaders of the SNP are named after fish) get DevoMax passed, does that make it an easier or more difficult path for independence?

  3. @ Amber Star

    Also, did you spot this in the Guardian?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2011/may/09/scotland-votes-but-what-exactly-for

    Thought it was some interesting analysis.

  4. @ Rob Sheffield

    “The key element here? They are anti Tory.

    We won’t hang onto them by bashing the Lib Dems- no matter how cathartic/ enjoyable that has been. The Lib Dems poll ratings in recent weeks have gone up when they attack the Tories (tonight most probably a mixture of outlier and ‘nobody likes a loser’- it will pass).

    So the KEY thing Labour has to do is focus critique and fire on the Tories: not other centrist/ social democratic forces. They are not ideological automatons for a small state at any social and environmental cost as the Tories arguably are.

    Thinking that we will do better by hoping the Lib Dems do worse (and trying to make that happen) is a dangerous and IMHO wholly inaccurate approach.”

    I think you’re right. I would imagine in doing that though, they’ve also got to provide an alternative for Tory leaning voters too (or perhaps swing voters, to the extent that such a term exists, who voted Tory in 2010). They can’t just be Doctor No.

  5. I was to comment on the the price of martian soil in 2200 but chose not to waste the time of the readers of this site. Unfortunately, those dependent on London based newspapers to provide you with insight into Scottish opinion are already wasting their time enough.

    I would never hope to pontificate on southern English opinion as the matter is well beyond my knowledge, and it would helpful if those in the reverse would do the same.

    Most comments from outslide Scotland on this site have not a clue to the reality of the situation in our country.

    Let me offer you a simple equation. Scotland is a country. England is a country, Britain is an island. People prefer to to be masters in their own house than servents in that of another. All the rest is political spin.

  6. On the actual data –
    Comparing now to previous yougov poll.

    Headline figures –
    Con – 36 (+2), Lab – (+1), LibDem 8 (-2)

    2010 Lab vote –
    Con – 3 (+1)
    Lab – 93 (0)
    Lib – 0 (0)
    Other – 4 (-1)
    So Labour has held up what was left of their 2010 vote.
    The Other>Con is UKIP>Con.
    Bit worrying for LibDems – if they continue to present themselves as a centre-left party, it seems they aren’t going to gain any voters off Labour.

    2010 Con vote-
    Con – 90 (-2)
    Lab – 4 (+1)
    Lib – 1 (0)
    Other – 4 (0)
    But bad news for Libs here too, they aren’t going to gain many voters from the Tories either – so playing centre-right might not be their best bet.
    Not hugely promising for the Tories, but..

    2010 Lib vote –
    Con – 13 (+5)
    Lab – 44 (+4)
    Lib – 30 (-9)
    Other – 13 (0)
    So votes of both Lib sides (centre-right and centre-left) have abandoned (although since it’s a post-election bounce, perhaps temporarily) the party.
    It’ll be interesting to see if either bounce is sustainable – if the Tories start taking more centre-right voters when the centre-left voters have already largely abandoned the LibDems to Labour, it could do serious harm to their polling.

    Interesting splits across age and area groups –
    Regions –
    South & Midlands see Con polling gains and Lab polling drops. Unsurprising since that’s where Tory heartland (and wins) are.
    Labour boost (at the expense of the Cons) in the North, with Labour drop in Scotland.
    No surprise there either.
    London now neck and neck, previously Con ahead (although they didn’t have local elections, the Yes vote wins may be the transfer to Lab).

    But across age groups –
    18-20 –
    Con – 29 (-2)
    Lab – 49 (+2)
    Lib – 8 (-7)
    Other – 14 (+6)
    Other gains are largely SNP but also surprisingly BNP.
    So nationalists gaining the Lib vote?
    Or Lib > Lab with Con > BNP?

    25-39 –
    Con – 36 (+2)
    Lab – 44 (0)
    Lib – 9 (-2)
    Other – 11 (+1)

    40-59-
    Con – 37 (+4)
    Lab – 42 (-3)
    Lib – 9 (0)
    Other – 12 (-2)

    60+
    Con – 43 (-2)
    Lab – 38 (+6)
    Lib – 6 (-2)
    Other – 13 (-1)
    This one perplexes me somewhat – Tories do better with older voters, surely a Tory post-poll boost should mean a boost with the older generation?

  7. @Tingedfringe

    Any movement in the 60+ group could see a change in likelihood to vote differential… whatever is written on the calendar generally gets done.

    I was speaking to a peron of advanced years… has voted for Thatcher and Blair at times, and though initially prepared to give Cameron/Osborne benefit of the doubt, was at pains yesterday to stress that voting Tory at the GE was an endorsement of the local MP, *not* the government.

  8. @ Tinged Fringe

    “This one perplexes me somewhat – Tories do better with older voters, surely a Tory post-poll boost should mean a boost with the older generation?”

    Do older voters receive a lot of government benefits and if so, if the Tories are cutting or threatening those benefits, might thsoe voters be switching away from the Tories? I mean, I don’t know. That’d be my theory anyway.

  9. @ Billy Bob

    “I was speaking to a peron of advanced years… has voted for Thatcher and Blair at times, and though initially prepared to give Cameron/Osborne benefit of the doubt, was at pains yesterday to stress that voting Tory at the GE was an endorsement of the local MP, *not* the government.”

    Obama’s numbers among senior voters are improving now that the Republican teabaggers are threatening social security, Medicare, and Medicaid. It’s why he’s leading in Florida. These voters may be racist and hate having a black president but they don’t want to see their government checks reduced or threatened (I swear to you, greed is one of the BEST weapons against bigotry).

  10. @Socalliberal

    Self preservation is a strong motivation. And I agree with your comment about “entitlements”.

    I think there is also something of an unconcious judgement (gained trough life-experience?) about who you would place your trust in a tight spot. That may not neccessarily be the person you agree with on all things… the cool, competent and decisive one can make an appeal over and above superficial conscious concerns

  11. I see that the full data has now been published. Here is the Scottish split. First time SNP has been ahead in a YouGov Westminster VI sub-sample since 2008 IIRC:

    Westminster VI – Scotland (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    SNP 37% (+17)
    Lab 34% (-8)
    Con 16% (-1)
    LD 8% (-11)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    UKIP 2% (+1)
    BNP 0 (n/c)
    oth 1%

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

  12. Amber Star,

    – “… & risk going away empty handed, if it’s a ‘no’”

    And SLABers wonder why they just got thumped?

    Wonder no longer: your own obvious delight in thwarting the aspirations of Scots to run their own affairs says it all.

  13. @ Billy Bob

    “Self preservation is a strong motivation. And I agree with your comment about “entitlements”.

    I think there is also something of an unconcious judgement (gained trough life-experience?) about who you would place your trust in a tight spot. That may not neccessarily be the person you agree with on all things… the cool, competent and decisive one can make an appeal over and above superficial conscious concerns”

    I agree with you. And honestly, people are entitled to their “entitlements.” I just want consistency.

    Of course, perceptions of cool, competent, and decisive can vary. I mean, upon hearing that the country you lead is under attack, is sitting there for 7 minutes reading My Pet Goat to schoolchildren cool, competent, and decisive? I tend not to think so but others disagree.

  14. Of course is very premature to predict the outcome of next GE, whenever it is held, but my political instinct tells me that the Tories’ chances are meagre. Even after the boundary change, they will need around 40% to get OM, which seems very difficult to achieve (Even in the “glorious” for them Thatcher years, they never saw their percentages increase from on GE to the next, their consecutive victories were a result of center-left vote split). Of course it is possible, after a possible tightening of the race, to have again a hung parliament, and not the Labour OM that polls actually predict, but even then Labour will form the government. Seriously, who will be willing to form an alliance with the Tories after what is now happening to the LDs? No party is that suicidal! In other words, the Tories did relatively well in local elections, this I admit, but they did so by cynically and deliberately (through the AV campaign) destroying the only party that had the courage (or should I say the folly?) to collaborate with them. So the label of the “nasty party” is now even harder for them to remove.
    On another topic, I do not think that Labour has much to fear from an eventual Scottish independence, and my friendly advice is that SLAB should stop fighting against it if such is the will of Scottish voters. On the contrary, there will be then TWO countries where they will be able to claim power, something which no other party can achieve, and they will be the only channel of communication between the two new countries (Scotland and the New UK), which after all will be neighbors and partners in the EU, since the influence of SNP in New UK and of Tory/LD in Scotland will be nil. Something similar is happening now in the EU, where the Socialist family, albeit second in number of votes and seats behind the Populars, is the only one to be represented in ALL 27 countries both in EP and in National Parliaments, and is now (after the Irish and Finish GE) the first or second party in 24 out of 27 countries (Cyprus, Estonia and Poland being the only exceptions), something no other family can achieve.

  15. ‘Labour has much to fear from an eventual Scottish independence, and my friendly advice is that SLAB should stop fighting against it if such is the will of Scottish voters. On the contrary, there will be then TWO countries where they will be able to claim power, something which no other party can achieve’

    Sinn Fein in NI and Eire?

  16. The recent swathe of comments by “John B Dick” do not sound like the John B Dick that we know.

    Anthony can you check?

  17. John B Dick

    Thanks.

    They have really annoyed you! You are normally far more measured than me.

  18. Virgilo, ill think youll find that w/o Scotland the polls are DEFINATLEY not predicting a labour majority, but a slight blue pluarility in the vote. With Labours vote mounting up in the north, were it is already strong it wont be as efficently spread as previously either, so it could even be a blue majority in england with this small lead giving how bad the libs are doing.

    I also see you blame the Tories for being “nasty” to the liberals. To an extent this may have been true, I dont deny it, but were you around to see the Vote No, Vote Labour adverts on here. They were attacking Nick Clegg and the liberals without any kind of veil, and were far more partisan than anything the tories put out. They have also been much more aggressive in the media to the liberals, so its pretty clear that your “nasty party” label has been applied using purely your own tribal bias.

  19. To be frank, i just dont believe YouGov, the liberals would not get anywhere near that low. I think its getting my party (blue) around correct, but to say the liberals would get half the vote of the locals is just too different to be plausible. ICM are increasingly looking like the blue riband pollster.

  20. Labour can’t gain many seats from the LD; in only around 15, they are within striking distance. To win an Overall Majority, they would need to gain significantly from the Tories. I don’t see them achieving that in the South.

  21. Are labour infront in Britain, last election was something of a tie was it not?

  22. @Ashley. re: the Lib Dems
    ‘ they are still the only challenger to the Tories in many areas and labour in others. But of course it doesn’t suit the narrative does it?!

    I think that the problem is that were they are the only challenger to the Conservatives in an area they have managed to be so due to ‘borrowed votes’ from the left and I cannot see these returning. Nick Clegg made a grave mistake IMHO by stating baldly that he was not, and never would be, running a left leaning party and did not want these ‘borrowed votes’. It almost seemed perverse as election literature in my area (Lib v Cons) had blatantly asked for such votes for years ( and got them).

    I do see these Lib/Conservative seats turning blue now without too much trouble unless Clegg gains votes from ‘soft Conservatives’ which shows no sign of happening.

    I do think that the political landscape has changed dramatically for the foreseeable future and it is not possible to draw as many conclusions from past voting behaviour in terms of the Liberal Democrats future chances.

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