And more results…

The patterns from last night seem to be a thumping victory for the SNP in Scotland, Labour heading for victory in Wales. In the English local elections the Liberal Democrats are suffering badly, facing extreme losses in Northern cities and patchier losses elsewhere. The Conservatives are experiencing modest losses to Labour, but these are being cancelled out by gains from the Lib Dems.

This afternoon we have the rest of Wales, Scotland and the locals before counting starts on the referendum at 4pm.

Finally, YouGov have released data from polling on election day (a sort of online exit-poll) here.


375 Responses to “And more results…”

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  1. John Curtice on BBC Radio Scotland: “Greens have not made a significant breakthrought”

    Curtice forecast 67 to 68 SNP MSPs (ie. overall MAJ)

  2. Curtice: “gradual collapae in confidence in the ability of Labour to govern in Scotland”

  3. SNP GAIN Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch from Lib Dems

    Has anyone seen Charlie Kennedy today?

    turnout: 56.23%

    Con 2,834
    LD 9,742
    Lab 4,112
    SNP 14,737

  4. BBC Highland correspondent: “Lib Dems have been gubbed in this election” “they are gone from the Highland mainland”

  5. BBC predicting SNP overall majority

    Prof John Curtice: “Labour’s poorest performance in Scotland since 1931”

    Curtice: “a political revolution in Scotland”

  6. The result in Scotland is the most significant event of yesterday. I say this as a southern Englishman. What is interesting is that if we held to the old constitutional norms that existed before the idea that one must have referendums to bring about constitutional change (this would have been considered thoroughly un-British before the early 1970s) we would be waking up to a legitimate Declaration of Scottish Independence, lawful under international law, that the UK Governement could not lawfully resist. It shows just how far our constitution has evolved over the past 40 years that everyone including Alex Salmond accepts that that would require a majority vote in a referendum.

  7. SNP HOLD Inverness & Nairn
    SNP maj over LAB 9,700

    Lib Dems collapse to 3,??? (-15 points)

    Remember, this is Danny Alexander’s seat!

  8. Curtice: “Labour Party will be fooling themselves if they think that the SNP’s success purely comes from the collapse of the Lib Dem vote”

  9. Dame Anne Begg MP (Aberdeen South): Labour have made big mistake by not putting key people on the regional lists

  10. Anne Begg: “On the doorsteps we were getting lots and lots of undecided, but they weren’t Labour undecideds” “We need to define what we are about”

    Begg attacks council tax freeze. Err… Anne… that was Labour’s policy too! :)

  11. Anthony, Curtice name-dropped YouGov’s extra data release today. He has clearly already perused it.

  12. Stirling result due in approx 10 minutes.

  13. Stuart – I have to say I agree with Anne Begg on the Labour needing to make better use of the list front. At least Scotland doesn’t have the ridiculous welsh law banning dual candidacies.

  14. BBC predict SNP will win 67 seats – 2 more than 65 needed to secure first ever majority government in the Scottish Parliament

  15. Clackmannanshire & Dunblane result due 14:00

    Argyll & Bute result due 13:30 – 14:00
    (local Lib Dems have already conceded defeat based on ballot paper piles at count)

    Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch changes:

    SNP +14.6 points
    LD -11.3
    Lab -1.4
    Con -2.8

  16. PM David Cameron: “I will fight to keep the United Kingdom together with every single fibre I have”

    Caithness, Sutherland & Ross changes:

    SNP +16.6 points
    LD -18.1
    Lab +5.8
    Con -0.8

  17. Inverness & Nairn changes:

    SNP +10.6
    Lab +0.9
    Con +1.1
    LD -15.9

    Lib Dems were 4th in Inverness, not 3rd as initially reported.

  18. BBC Scotland mention “rumours about Chris Huhne”, without elaborating.

    Anyone know what they are referring to?

  19. Stuart Dickson

    PM David Cameron: “I will fight to keep the United Kingdom together with every single fibre I have”

    In that case he’d better start looking at rewriting the Scotland Bill!

  20. SNP GAIN Stirling from Labour

  21. OldNat,
    – “In that case he’d better start looking at rewriting the Scotland Bill!”

    Indeed.

    Cameron only has one chance to get this Bill right.

    As it stands, it is a truly appalling piece of cobbled together legislation.

    Cameron needs to smack Moore’s heid off the wall on Monday, and tell him who the boss is.

  22. Some superbly amusing spin from scottish Lib Dems tories and SLAB right now.

    Apparently Salmond is going to have major problems because he will now have so many MPs.
    He’ll be gutted. :-D

  23. “Rewrite the Scotland Bill”? Are the SNP backing away from chasing full independence then? I was looking forward to hearing the SNPs *official* economic and political argument ending a plethora of nationalist beliefs.

    Is it true that the nationalist blog Newsnet is claiming a cyber/’denial of service’ attack on it’s site, by the way?

  24. Leicester City Council have been saying that the Leics South by election result comes at the same time as the referendum result… 7pm.

  25. There’s aleady some Conservative headbangers arguing that Cameron should bring a referendum bill through Westminster so he gets to choose the wording.

    And I thought SLAB didn’t get it. :-D

  26. Steve

    It’s very simple.

    We don’t know what the “status quo” is going to be that Independence is the alternative to!

    Once Westminster decides what the Scotland Bill is finally going to say, then we’ll know what the choice is.

    The ball is in your court.

  27. Steve

    Newsnet Scotland had a technical problem – not hacking.

    It’s back online now.

  28. Am I the only person who thinks these results are pretty bad for Labour? The Con vote has roughly held up, and whilst Labour have made some gains, AV will be defeated, which Ed Milliband supported, and also Scotland, where Labour are traditionally strong, seems to be over time moving more & more to the SNP.
    If you combine these things, along with boundary changes that the Cons are making for more equally sized constituencies, I can’t help but think this is actually a very good night for the Tories given the sort of cuts they have to do.

  29. OLDNAT

    It’s beginning to look as though the YouGov where fieldwork was completed on 21 April was the one with the right mix of Holyrood loyal vs disloyal. On the basis of that poll I reckoned there was a good chance of Fife NE going to the SNP and STV have just predicted that will be the case as they go off air.

  30. Barbazenzero

    Indeed, but the last minute poll from Scottish Public Opinion seems to have caught the last minute swing better than YouGov.

    Surely Anthony has to admit at some point that the YG methodology for Scotland is mince!

  31. OLDNAT

    Absent proper tables and weightings, I continue to regard all PSO polls as not proven, even the ones that are right!

    I suspect that YouGov will have a rather larger market for Scottish polls for a while to come, provided they can sort out their party ids and newspaper readership.

  32. A handful of LD ex-councillors and ex-council leaders have gone on the air to openly call for Nick Clegg’s resignation, one saying that the party is on the way to a split along the lines of what happened in the 1920s.

  33. Richard O,

    I think “disappointing” is the word. Even the lowest expectations for Labour didn’t involve them failing to reduce the Tories’ 2007 result.

    The AV result is an example of what happens when organisation meets disorganisation. The result hurts Ed Miliband’s authority more than if “Yes” had won.

    Scotland is just a disaster.

    The Welsh results are good, but not good enough to make up for what (on balance) is a rough day for Labour. However, this must surely be overshadowed by the disaster for the Lib Dems, who HAVE performed to expectations and were more committed to AV than Labour.

    I still think that David Cameron will, on balance, be the happiest of the three today. Across the country, I suspect that Alex Salmond is a little worried that he fell asleep before the count and that he’s about to wake up.

  34. SNP take Dunfermline from 3rd place!

  35. Memories re Darling vs DBS quite long, I suspect.

  36. Lose one interesting constitutional change, gain one even better….

  37. Oldnat,

    If this isn’t just another of your guesses but something that has genuinely come down from party HQ, that very much suggests the SNP are already looking for an out from chasing full independence and instead accepting a compromise agreement. This obviously goes against everything the SNP claim that ‘full independence is the only answer to all of Scotland’s ills.’

    That would be a shame. As someone who is tired of all the (often ill-informed) bickering between Scotland and UK/England/London, I was hoping a campaign based on fact (as the SNP would need to do to avoid being discreditted) would clear up a great many misconceptions, spin and well, blatant lies. You yourself have proven this need with your once strongly-held beliefs that the bailout of RBS and HBOS cost only a tenth of the real amount, that a Scottish Exchequer would be entitled to tax global revenues of Scottish multinationals and that no oil revenues are returned to Scotland.

    If such beliefs are common among the nationalist devotees, this badly shows the urgent need of the genuine facts.

  38. @OLD NAT
    We don’t know what the “status quo” is going to be that Independence is the alternative to!

    I thought the SNP stood for independance for Scotland no deals no status quo.All I have ever heard from Mr Salmond is independance,so why accept anything less? No bill from Westminster tories is going to satisfy what the SNP want ,the budget will be cut significantly etc. I really think Cameron is prepared to say “roll the dice” and see what happens.What is the worst that can happen,Labour are out of power for decades as losing 40 or so seats in Scotland ,won’t be replaced by English votes that is for sure.

  39. Steve

    You clearly haven’t been listening to what the SNP has been saying.

    I don’t talk for the SNP any more than you speak for Unionism.

    You may not like it that the UK now has to respond via the Scotland Bill, but that’s the position that the Unionists are in.

  40. MichaelB

    As for Steve – You clearly haven’t been listening to what the SNP has been saying.

    Cameron will make his call, then we’ll see what happens.

  41. LDs down to 4th place in Argyll & Bute.

  42. Look who was right, I forecasted the Tories would get 25% in Wales and Labour will go in the low 40s not high 40s. Tories stopped a Labour majority in its tracks. The only disappointment of the night for my self is the fact the seat I live in Cardiff North is now held by extremely strong labour candidate Julie Morgan and the loss of Jonathan Morgan will be a great loss to the assembly. But in other parts of Wales the Tories have increased their share of their to the highest ever in a Welsh Assembly election despite the fact we’re making difficult decisions in Westminster and we gained seats overall too! Ed Milliband failed to get a majority in Wales, completely failed in Scotland and has failed completely to to take any Tory vote at all!

  43. Fife NE has fallen on a 15% swing.

    Roderick Alexander McRobie Campbell SNP 11,029 37.2 +16.2
    Iain Smith Liberal Democrat 8,437 28.4 -13.8
    Miles Briggs Conservative 5,618 18.9 -7.8
    Colin Davidson Labour 3,613 12.2 +4.3
    Mike Scott-Hayward UK Independence Party 979 3.3 +3.3

    So that’s the lib dems down to 5 seats then.

  44. @oldnat

    One of the Conservative MSPs has already said this morning the Scotland Bill was not ‘fixed’ and the scottish Conservatives and Cameron would be consulting on it. There are already reforms ready and waiting to be added should Cameron chose to change it.

    No point in arguing with those who don’t get it.

  45. Pretty meaningless, I know, but “the BBC is saying that, on the basis of its current estimated national share of the vote (see 4.40am), the Lib Dems would have just 21 seats in the Commons if there were a general election now and people voted as they did yesterday. The same figures suggest Labour would have 340 Commons seats – a narrow majority – and the Conservatives 264.” Also: “The LibDems have had their worst local election result since the party was formed”.

  46. SNP gain Kirkaldy!

  47. Mick Park

    “No point in arguing with those who don’t get it.”

    I’m not arguing. I’m patronising them! :-)

    And the SNP gets to choose the Presiding Officer too, without giving up their majority.

  48. BillPatrick

    You seem to be making these far-reaching statement about Labour expectations.

    Although not overjoyed I think they will be okay with the performance in England and Wales especially overturning the 8% deficit from 2010. Okay, Scotland is another matter but we will see how this pans out over the next 5 years. I wish Salmond luck but it will be difficult for him.

    The next election is in 4 years so I do not see how you can make these statements without your tongue in cheek.

    Let us see 2012-2014 before making any judgement. Remember the Tories were going to win overwhelmingly in 200 and the LD weree going to beat Labour into 3rd!!!

    If we are making ridiculous leaps of logic then if these numbers are correct a GE would have returned a Labour majority Government – better than a year ago

  49. I’m patronising them!

    :-D

    “And the SNP gets to choose the Presiding Officer too, without giving up their majority.”

    Elmer Fudd ? :-D

  50. Kirkcaldy. History

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