Election night

There is one final poll on the AV referendum. Opinium for the Evening Standard have figures of YES 36%, NO 64%.

Next stop results. Polls close at 10pm. Some local councils, and some of Scotland and Wales are counting overnight, but results will be relatively slow going because of the need to validate the local/Scottish/Welsh papers AND referendum ballot papers. The Press Association’s estimated declaration times suggest we won’t have anything till around midnight (Sunderland and Tameside are the first councils expected to declare, Bridgend the first Welsh seat), and apart from then little until 1am. There’s unlikely to be anything in Scotland till 2am.

The referendum count starts at 4pm tomorrow.

As far as I am aware there are NO exit polls tonight.

UPDATE: There is also a final Scottish Parliament poll in tonight’s Daily Mail, conducted by Progressive Scottish opinion (while it’s being published tonight, it isn’t an exit poll – the fieldwork was conducted over the weekend, continuing up until Tuesday). Topline figures are constituency: CON 12%, LAB 26%, LDEM 4%, SNP 51%. Regional: CON 12%, LAB 22%, LDEM 3%, SNP 53%, Green 5%. A thirty-one point lead for the SNP in the regional vote seems, to put it politely, somewhat unlikely.

671 Responses to “Election night”

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  1. @ Eoin,

    Definitely – if Clegg stays it benefits Labour. But EdM needs to do more to attract floating Blues. I guess needs a good policy review, and start sounding more like a leader.

  2. If you’d have said on here a few days ago that after a little over a third of the local election results being announced the Tories had gained 2 councils and 45 seats, I’m sure very few people/no one would have believed you! I just can’t believe how the Tories could possibly have gained given the economic climate, the cuts etc. Just seems beyond comprehension to me.

  3. “Scotland getting independence would be terrible news for Labour….”

    Terrible news for the English too, IMO. While I agree that the Scots should have independence if they want it I hope they don’t.

  4. MichaelB

    That was always the plan. Looks like the SNP can now set their own date.

    The following timetable looks likely –

    1. Use the election result to “suggest” to Westminster that the Scotland Bill needs amendment to transfer major new powers back to Holyrood.

    2. Depending on Westminster’s response, phrase the referendum question or questions.

    3. Hold referendum 2014.

  5. “I just can’t believe how the Tories could possibly have gained given the economic climate, the cuts etc. Just seems beyond comprehension to me.”

    That’s FPTP for you. LibDem vote collapses; Tories win by default. I think Conservatives would be foolish to take too much comfort from it.

  6. @RogerH,

    It would, indeed, be a sad day for Britain.

  7. National projected votes for local elections are normally intended to show what the vote shares would be if there were *local* elections across the whole country.

    Hence they take into account things like the lack of London elections… but they are not intended to be a projection of national *Westminster* support – people normally vote differently in local and national elections (specifically in terms of higher Lib Dem support in local elections)

  8. “it is in no-one’s interests to precipitate the coalitions collapse at the moment.”

    Arguably it is in the interests of the LDs AND the Cons.

  9. North East Scotland list result:

    following elected:
    Baker LAB
    Johnstone CON
    Myra LAB
    Milne CON
    McInnes LD
    Macdonald LAB
    Macdonald SNP !!!

    We got the last list MSP! Totally unexpected.

  10. We won all 10 constituency seats, but still Mark Macdonald got in on the list. He was 5th on the list and turned up to the count in jeans and trainers. :D

  11. typo: ” He was 5th on the SNP’s list ”

    The Greens JUST missed out. They’ll be totally sick in the pits of their stomachs.

  12. Now Con Blogger Tim Montgomery has turned on the LDs saying they need to “grow up”.

    New Press release from LDs saying “No-one likes us, but we don’t care.”

  13. @OLD NAT
    thanks for that,I wish you well.Regardless of any political persuasion,a lot of us far far south of the border in England feel,this is something that now needs some closure one way or the other.
    There are lots of they get this and they get that benefit from both sides and this IMO is the best way to decide now where we go.If it is the wish of the Scottish people to their own way,then democracy should dictate thus.
    Has their been any recent independance polling btw ?

  14. @Stuart Dickson I said that last NE seat would be very close! And so it turned out. Was the anti trump stance a vote loser for the Greens I wonder?

  15. Stuart

    That’s phenomenal! All the constituencies and a list seat too.

    the Greens shouldn’t have tried to cosy up to Labour.

    Still hope we adopt their Land Value Tax though.

  16. I see the Greens won a ward in Bristol.

  17. @OldNat re Land Value Tax I was just thinking the same thing. Hopefully LIT can be dumped blaming it on Westminster refusal to give back council tax benefit and then LVT suggested instead.


  19. “AW was explaining the other day that the AV referendum and the boundary changes/reduction in MPs go through separately even if they are part of the same bill. In other words, the boundary changes/reduction in MPs do not depend on the AV result.”

    Then you misunderstood the point I was making. The boundary changes still go through but they were drawn up in conjunction with the AV Referndum and if the was a Yes they would have been used to help implement the voting change.

    They are linked in that sense and the sense of the bill that went through. Clegg now has to eat them regardless of the AV result.

  20. Notice the Lab lead over Con has shrunk to just 2%. And gov (dis)approval is now just -18%. Much of that negativity could be explained away by the dislike of the LDs…

    I suggest things are moving favourably for the Cons.

  21. @Mick,

    Ah, my apologies for the misunderstanding.

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