One more final poll for the referendum tomorrow – YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of YES 40%, NO 60%. That’s in the same sort of ball park as YouGov’s AV polling over the last fortnight or so, a very substantial NO lead (unless the polls are horribly, horribly wrong a NO victory appears a certainty) but not as large as suggested by ComRes and ICM. The poll was conducted yesterday and today, with a sample of 5,725.

There is apparently also an Angus Reid poll on AV due out tonight – I do not know when or where.

To avoid confusion, people are also tweeting a poll from the Metro apparently showing a 4 point lead for Yes. I’ve no idea of the veracity of the poll, but it is of readers of Metro under the age of 44, so is not intended to be a nationally representative poll or a prediction of the overall result.

UPDATE: The final Angus Reid poll on AV is now out, and has YES on 39%, NO on 61%


206 Responses to “Final YouGov AV poll”

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  1. Voted early this morning in Plymouth. Sneaky peek at the lines across the voters register showed maybe 5% turnout in the first hour, but I was the only voter there. Does anyone know if postal voters are crossed off the register manually before the polls open (to ensure there is no double voting)?

    Incidentally, I decided to stay calm and vote “Yes” despite all the anti-Tory blather from the Yes campaign over the last week or two.

  2. My first ever vote in the UK. (I voted in Ireland GE 2011)

    If the question had been between FPTP and STV as in Ireland, I would have genuinely been torn. However, I see AV as less proportional and more unfair, it is my least favoured system of all potential voting systems so my decision was easy. So turnout is dreadful, almost none of the names were crossed out. A bit disappointing, my first election in the UK was nowhere near as exciting as my first one in Ireland.

  3. @All

    Unitary Authorities

    There are currently 47 of which 28 have the whole council up for election and 27 have 1/3rd. They comprise of Seats up for election. However because they will have differing dynamics for polling analysis I will deal with them as separate entities.

    Firstly where the whole council is up for election.

    This is a total of 1497 seats of which their seat holdings were Con 675, Lab 389, LD 264, Green 17, BNP 5 and Ind/Oths 147.

    There are 28 councils of which Con has overall control in 13, Lab in 6, LD in none and NOC in 9. Of these 9 Con is largest party in 4, Lab in 3 and LD in 2.

    Con is likely to retain control in its 13, and Lab in its 6.

    In NOC of the 4 Con ones, 2 (Brighton, Bath) remain NOC with Con as largest party, whilst in the other 2 (S Glocs, Telford) Con gain overall control.

    In NOC of the 3 Lab ones (Redcar, Stockton, Stoke on trent) Lab gains overall control.

    In NOC of the 2 LD ones, 1 (York) is gained by Lab with overall control, whilst the other Bedford remains NOC with a TU for largest party.

    Secondly where 1/3rd is up for election.

    This is a total of 328 seats of which their seat holdings were 125 Con, 97 Lab, 87 LD and 19 Inds.

    There are 19 councils of which Con had overall control in 6, Lab in 3, LD in 3 and NOC in 7.

    Of the 6 in Con control, all remain in Con control.
    Of the 2 in Lab control, all remain in Lab control.
    Of the 3 in LD control 2 (Bristol, Portsmouth) revert to to NOC with LD the largest party and 1 (Kingston upon Hull) reverts to NOC but with a TU for largest party between LD and Con.

    The 7 NOC, 2 have Con as largest party, 4 have Lab and 1 has LD.

    Of the 2 Con, both remain NOC, but 1 (NE Lincolnshire) still has Con as the largest party, whilst the other (Derby) has a TU for largest party between Lab and Con.

    Of the 4 Lab, 3 (Blackburn, Warrington and possibly Thurrock) are gain by Lab with overall control and 1 (Reading) remains NOC with Lab as the largest party

    Of the 1 LD (Milton Keynes) it remains NOC but probably LD still largest party, but with Con pressing hard.

    Time for a long pause I think.

  4. @Welsh Watcher

    ‘Welsh DeclarationTimings’

    Brilliant, many thanks. It also gives the declaration times for Scotland and the English Locals.

  5. I voted by post but it is drizzling in Abergavenny and the place feels like a ghost town.I voted yes and so did myhusband but then he always does as he is told! I wonder if a low turnout could be a real issue here.

  6. Well my assessment of the AV turn out is 18.7% – any other offers?

  7. Possible large turnout in Bromley (town centre area). My wife has just voted (YES), and reports a large queue mainly of first time voters.

    On my way home. Will update when I get to the polling station at around 8.15pm.

    Gloriously sunny and warm in London.

  8. Confession time: having initially infuriated Martyn and Howard by posting as many objections to AV as I could imagine at the time this was first being discussed… I have voted Yes (safe in the knowledge as it were), however, for a long time I couldn’t make up my mind, and if I thought the result would be close I might still be trying to make up my mind!

  9. Quiet in my part of suburban Nottingham. A couple of other voters in the polling station, both elderly.

    Voted No, and Lib Dem.

  10. @Neil A
    I suspect they are, but only if they have already voted. One may ask for a postal vote, not use it and rock up to vote in person on polling day.

    Proud of you for ignoring the trash talk and going with your own view. :)
    Very poor show from both campaigns in misrepresenting the other.

  11. I find it intriguing that the limited analysis on this forum of the potential results of a change to AV or some other form of PR seems to be through the narrow prism of the current political party landscape . Although not in the immediate term of the next election (or two) but looking to the mid to long term would there not of been a strong possibility that the party landscape may have changed in response to a changed system. After all the current main parties are in themselves coalitions of left to right wing grouping relative to the particular party in question. A change of system may change the strategic viewpoint of those distinct grouping within the “party coalition”. Have there been any studies that give some analysis to how the political party landscape may be impacted?

    Although of no consequence given the polls show that the AV campaign will not be successful but just wondering why people seem so certain that the current party landscape would not have significantly changed over time.

  12. David B,

    Turnout of 35% I reckon.

  13. My postal vote overseas arrived yesterday. Was the same at the General election..pathetic really

  14. @All
    Non Metropolitan Districts

    Again these split into two groups, so I will deal separately

    Firstly those with the whole council up for election

    There are 128 of these council, 93 with Con in overall control , 4 with Lab, 9 with LD, 2 with Ind Gps and 18 with NOC.

    They account for 5777 seats of which 3473 are Con, 606 are Lab, 1074 are LD, 6 are BNP, 31 are Green, 3 are UKIP, 580 are Ind/Oths and 3 are unspecified vacancies.

    Dealing with the councils with a party currently in overall control.

    Of the 93 Con, 92 should remain Con, with 1 N Warwickshire reverting to NOC with a TU for largest party

    Of the 4 Lab, all remain Lab.

    Of the 4 Ind, 3 remain in Ind control, but 1 West Somerset reverts to NOC with a TU for largest party.

    Of the 9 LD, 4 remain in LD control, 4 (Hinckley, Lewes, Northampton, N Norfolk) reverts to NOC with Con as largest party. The last one (Vale of the White Horse) reverts to NOC with LD as the largest party.

    Dealing now with the 18 current NOC

    14 have Con as the largest party, 1 has Lab, 2 have LD and 1 has an Alliance Gp.

    The Alliance Gp (Allerdale) remains NOC with Alliance as largest party.

    The Lab (Lancaster) remains NOC with Lab as largest party.

    Of the 2 LD, 1 (Teignbridge) is gain by Con. The other (Ashfield) remains as NOC but with Lab as largest party.

    Of the 14 Con, 10 (Babergh, Broxtowe, East Lindsey, Mendip, Mid Devon, Richmondshire, Ryedale, Taunton Deane,Tendring, Tewkesbury) are all gained by Con. 4 (Eden, Scarborough, Thanet, West Devon,) remain NOC with Con still the largest party.

  15. @Jonn

    That my main reason for voting YES. if we had AV, people would be more inclined to use their first preference to vote for the party, however small, closest to their political views, rather than vote for the party most likely to win or their main challenger. We would then have a mych better indication of where the nation’s politics really lie, and this should influence the pilitical discourse of who we are, what we really think, and which policies should be adopted at national level.

  16. @John

    There was some such discussion on this site, as you suggest, when the referendum was proposed last summer.

    If I remember, Rob Sheffield for one put forward a tentative list of 9 or so distinct parties.

  17. I have just done something really weird – having been hostile to AV on so many grounds, and argued such on this forum, I felt compelled when in the booth to vote “YES” – but why? I was quietly deep in thought walking home with my wife when she asked me what was wrong….I told her…only to discover she had done the same!!!!! Having had half an hour to compose myself I think I realise it is because the NO campaign has been so nasty…as have the press….and i felt a twinge of guilt that Clegg had to move his position on fees and become so unpopular because our Conservative Prime Minister asked him to. To make capital out of that feels thoroughly dishonourable….and it made us both change our vote independent of one another at the last minute. Has anyone else felt this way unexpectedly?

  18. @TGB

    What about the propects for differential turnouts in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland? I think this is somewhat overplayed, myself. Scotland should be higher, but the others should be around the same.

  19. ‘Although of no consequence given the polls show that the AV campaign will not be successful but just wondering why people seem so certain that the current party landscape would not have significantly changed over time.’ Jomm

    Because having lived in Australia main parties are dominant. With AV it’s simple; you know who you want to vote for (vote first), you know who you loathe (they go last) and you know who you can cope with (somewhere in between. And the local independent / minor parties don’t matter as they all go out very early. No way do freak shows like BNP have any chance as they have to get more votes than any one of the main parties. No main party would ever tell it’s members to vote in anyway other than BNP last.

    It would have minor squeaks from some minor parties Greens / UKIP as their percentage votes would go up a bit (people can actually vote for them first before actually voting for a party they might think get again).

    The only minor change would be a few more non-tory seats as I believe Liberal / labour swap preferences more than anything else. Possibly a few more SNP seats as Labour would put SNP 2nd.

    I actually cant see any reason why Labour voters would not vote for AV. They’d pick up lots of Lin2 votes.

    But it’s a lost cause,sadly.

  20. Tony,

    I did the same thing. Wasn’t enamored by AV but have voted Yes anyway. Why? Well basically because whilst I don’t think AV will be much of a change – its just as unfair and undemocratic – I would like the margin of victory for the No’s to be as small as possible in order to keep electoral reform on the radar. That and the NO campaign did annoy me with its many, many lies.

    Its not gonna be an earth shattering change if it happens. In fact I think it will barely affect any general election result. Personally would prefer a real choice of all the alternatives and a PROPER say on which electoral system this country would like.

  21. Raf,

    In NI the turnout will be 60% plus
    in Scotland the turnout will be 60% plus
    In Wales turnout will be c.50%
    In Leicester the turnout will be c. 40%
    In Council areas/AV the turnout will be low.. I reckon about 35%

    But they are just my views, for all that that’s worth.

  22. Thanks Gary O. I agree.

  23. @Tony Dean

    My wife and both changed our minds and voted yes in the end – I didn’t feel sorry for Nick Clegg as he deserves all he is going to get. Once the No campaign started to try and capitalise on my feelings of betrayal I started to smell a rat – the game changer was being told that voting yes would turn me into some kind of baby murderer. Not UK politics finest hour!

  24. @TGB

    Thanks. It’s worth quite a bit, as you are often very close to the mark :)

  25. Voted No, so did partner…. rehearsed reassons many times…all my LibDem friends vote yes and all the Labour friends vote no….my Conservative friends don’t admit it!…..actually those I know haven’t wanted to talk about it….

    I would still vote Yes for PR….

    Polling Station quiet but not deserted in Oval London.

    Off to Ireland tomorrow – so, all the excitement I will miss!!!

    To those guys doing all the wonderful analysis of local government elections I’d like to say a big thanks. I’ve loved read your posts over last week or so….

    I wish as happy an election night as possible to all of you….bearing in mind the results will depress some of us no matter what the outcome….

    And tHANKS TO ANTHONY FOIR THIS GREAT SITE… I hope we don’t disapppoint you all the time with our off the wall comments….

  26. Tony Dean / Gary O / Ian From Lichfield:

    I did exactly the same thing as you!!! Voted Yes at the last second.

  27. Looking at some of the comments by people makes me wonder if the people in this country really understand the concept of referendum and our national interest. Voting No just because Clegg says Yes or voting yes because some ‘No’ campaigner said you kill babies… If this isn’t x-factor politics, I don’t know what is.

  28. @ Andy JS et al.

    Likewise. My head told me that AV was a backward step in relation to full PR, but my heart would not let me keep fellow company with those in the No camp.

    Wonder if there were enough of the same mind to produce a surprise result? No, thought not ;)

  29. Bonne soirée électorale to everyone – I like election nights, especially in local elections. Since I vote in two countries where all local, regional etc. elections are held with a two-round system, I have almost lost count of the times I have voted in these (they must be more than 50) and I always follow the results flow. Good luck to our Labour friends and to all participants that are fighting for election as councillors etc, I know very well how they feel since my late father was a council president in a suburb of Athens (before being arrested by the military junta), my uncle a vice-mayor in the same one (after democracy was reestablished) and my aunt was councillor in Paris (though, sadly, she did not live long enough to see the socialist victory in 2001). So in each election of this kind , I sort of relive all this excitement and this is the beauty of politics independently of the party one belongs to.

  30. Intended to vote no and did vote no, although came close to voting yes in the booth. Think seeing the ‘you must vote no’ slogan on the front page of Desmond’s Daily Express is what nearly changed me!

  31. Just voted YES in Bromley. 3 other people in the polling station, which is in a church just of the high road. It’s late night shopping tonight, so that may help evening turnout.

  32. I know it counts for nothing, but turnout in my polling station in central Oxford was high, with a good 50-60% of names crossed off the list as of 6pm

    This is a strongly lib dem area, lots of yes posters in windows etc… so I did expect turnout to be high. I’m hearing a lot of stories of empty polling stations in London, where I fully expect turnout to be under 20%.

  33. Eoin

    I’d actually wonder about your NI estimate for turnout of over 60%. Remember that it was less than 60% in May last year – disillusion with the effectiveness of the Executive may mean more have decided to join you.

    And if the weather you’ve had has been anything like ours, no one will have gone out. Still I can’t see anyone setting fire to the Mournes again in a hurry.

  34. I voted Yes, because I actually believe it’s a better system than FPTP.
    It isn’t my first choice, but that’s the thing about reform (and I suppose, the whole point of AV) – if you don’t get your first choice, you should at least push for something better.
    My first choice would be panarchism, second choice consensus politics, then PR, then a better preferential single-member system, then AV, then FPTP.

    And I’m actually glad that we had this referendum, even though it’s unlikely to win, because it made me realise how important electoral reform is to me.
    So that will help decide how I vote in the future (and I know I’m not alone in this respect).

    So if the two major (you know who you are) parties ditch electoral reform after a no result, I may just have to go back to voting LibDems – even though I’m a fanatically now anti-LibDem.
    Ah, what politics does to you.

    Also – from what I’ve heard on twitter, I expect non-national turnout to be extremely low.
    Whether Yes or No supporters are more fanatical, I don’t know – but I’m now expecting it to be closer than the 60/40 (although I’m still expecting a No result).

    (Hopefully that post was non-partisan enough)

  35. Roger,

    I suppose if you are correct we should welcome that as progress… It must be the only place in the world were a low turnout is to be commended.

    Regarding weather, tis miserable.

  36. I swithered for ages, then voted ‘Yes’. I’m not sure why, cos I had been vaguely meaning to vote ‘No’ for months, but there you go.

    For Scots, the AV referendum was a very, very tiny issue. Hard to even see why on earth it required a referendum. They didn’t have a referendum when they abolished multi-member constituencies, certain of which (university constituencies) used STV. So why the big fuss over such a minor adjustment?

  37. Timothy

    quite the reverse for me. I have deep and long held convictions which I was losing sight of in an attempt to get my own back on Nick Clegg. The excesses of the campaign, culminating in the almost ludicrous attempt to blame AV for hospital spending cuts, was for me a wake up call. It made me realize that I was allowing personality politics to cloud my judgement in a way it has never done before – the baby killing adverts actually moved me away from the x-factor politics I was in danger of being dragged into.

  38. @All
    Non Metropolitan Districts

    Secondly those with 1/3rd of the council up for election

    There are 68 of these council, 40 with Con in overall control , 1 with Lab, 7 with LD and 21 with NOC.

    They account for 1006 seats of which 537 are Con, 168 are Lab, 237 are LD, 1 is BNP, 8 are Green, 5 are UKIP, 47 are Ind/Oths and 3 are unspecified vacancies.

    Dealing with the councils with a party currently in overall control.

    Of the 40 Con, All should remain Con.

    Of the 1 Lab, it remains Lab.

    Of the 7 LD, 5 remain in LD control, 1 (St Albans) reverts to NOC with LD as largest party. The last one (Winchester) reverts to NOC with Con as the largest party.

    Dealing now with the 21 current NOC

    11 have Con as the largest party, 6 have Lab and 4 have LD.

    Of the 6 Lab, 3 (Barrow-in-Furness, Carlisle, Ipswitch) lab Gains overall control. 3 (Exeter, Norwich, Preston) remain NOC still with Lab as largest party..

    Of the 4 LD, all remain NOC, 2 (
    Burnley, Cannoch Chase) now have Lab as largest party, 1 (Colchester) now has Con as largest party and 1 is NOC with TU for largest party.

    Of the 11 Con, 2 (Weymouth, Woking) are gains of overall control by Con, 3 (Pendle, Hyndburn, Ipswich) remain NOC but with TU as to the largest party, 1 (Bassetlaw) remains NOC but with Lab as largest party, and finally 5 (Elmbridge, Mole Valley, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Worcester,Glocester) remain NOC still with Con as the largest party.

    That is my estimate on how the local elections will fan out. With the first results only a couple of hours away, it will be interesting to see how accurate my forecast turns out to be.

    My aplogies to anyone who has found the posts not to their liking.

    Even though in Cyprus we are two hours ahead, I will be watching the results through the night with some intrepidation having put my head on the block so as to speak. Still a couple of Keos (local beer) should dull any immediate pain.

  39. Voted Green and voted Yes. Turnout appears to have been appalling. Not sure who that will benefit…

  40. Quite interesting to read how so many of you changed your mind and voted yes at the last minute – a lot of people I know only decided today, and decided to vote yes for similar reasons.

    I don’t actually know anyone who is voting ‘no’ but I suppose that’s what living in the city of Oxford does for you – small c conservatives are a rare breed here!

  41. Stuart

    “Hard to even see why on earth it required a referendum.”

    It clearly didn’t. Only major constitutional change proposals require a referendum.

    Odd then, that the parties that wanted one on this piece of trivia vote against having one on something important.

  42. 43% turnout at my polling station at 7.30pm

    Well above what the polling clerks there are used to.

  43. @Frank G

    Great stuff.

    Look forward to reading a self-assessment of your estimates in due course!

  44. – “Odd then, that the parties that wanted one on this piece of trivia vote against having one on something important.”

    I’m going to make an educated guess and posit that the rump SLD Group are going to do a u-turn and vote FOR the Referendum (Scotland) Bill when it next comes before parliament.

    Only SLAB and CON will vote against.

  45. Just back from 4 hours worth of knocking up by phone for the reds in this part of the West Midlands. It isn’t always a pleasant experience – sometimes lots of people you have down as supporters turn out not to be. But this time it was good.

  46. I voted no because I am a supporter of PR and AV has nothing to do wth PR, is not an improvement on FPTP and under some circumstances can distort results more than FPTP (most commentators say this would have been the case in 1992 where a 7% Con lead would have lead to a hung parliament under AV or 1997 when Labour’s majority would have been even more than it was.

  47. Why doesn’t Cameron beat the SNP to it and legislate for a Dissolution of the Union Referendum Act in the Westminster parliament instead? With us all getting a vote: E, NI, S & W.

    In that scenario, ‘Yes’ is pretty much guaranteed to win. After all, England wants rid of us “subsidy junkies”. N’est ce pas? ;)

  48. FRANKG

    Thank you very much – your analysis is really really useful.

  49. @Stuart Dickson

    You wrote “After all, England wants rid of us “subsidy junkies”. N’est ce pas?”

    NO! NO! We English would vote to keep our English Empire in the British Isles even if it does cost us a bob or two!

  50. Stuart

    Pedant Alert!

    It would have to be a Dissolution of the Unions Referendum Act

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