One more final poll for the referendum tomorrow – YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of YES 40%, NO 60%. That’s in the same sort of ball park as YouGov’s AV polling over the last fortnight or so, a very substantial NO lead (unless the polls are horribly, horribly wrong a NO victory appears a certainty) but not as large as suggested by ComRes and ICM. The poll was conducted yesterday and today, with a sample of 5,725.

There is apparently also an Angus Reid poll on AV due out tonight – I do not know when or where.

To avoid confusion, people are also tweeting a poll from the Metro apparently showing a 4 point lead for Yes. I’ve no idea of the veracity of the poll, but it is of readers of Metro under the age of 44, so is not intended to be a nationally representative poll or a prediction of the overall result.

UPDATE: The final Angus Reid poll on AV is now out, and has YES on 39%, NO on 61%


206 Responses to “Final YouGov AV poll”

1 2 3 4 5
  1. @Stuart D
    By the way, which seats have you ended up with a financial interest in?

    Mine are all SNP bets in Scotland, with much the largest stakes on the first three:
    Caithness, Skye, Mid Fife, Aberdeenshire W, Edinburgh W, Fife NE, Orkney
    (in mitigation as a red I plead that all but one of these is in reality against the LDs not Lab)
    Plus SNP weighted arbs in Galloway and Aberdeen D
    (although for Barney C’s sake I’d be delighted only with a return of the stake on the latter!).

    Plus Lab for Carmarthen W in Wales.

    All taken out several weeks ago before the odds started to narrow significantly.

  2. Rob

    “May 2007 was a Brown election”

    I’m not sure I entirely agree with that premise. Notwithstanding his much-trailed resignation, Tony Blair had been Prime Minister for 10 years, was still very much the Prime Minister and as I recall stayed on specifically to be in charge for the May elections in 2007 so that Brown would not have a nightmare start. I think the electorate was unlikely to have identified with Brown as leader in that election – people tend to identify a party by the current leader, not his putative successor.

  3. Hello all, a serial lurker here…
    Can any of you informed anoraks point me to a good bit of pre-local election assessment? Something of the “losing 400 councillors would be a good result for the Conservatives, losses of 1000+ would be a disaster” nature? The papers usually have something like that but I can’t find one this time.

  4. likes the av opinion polls if we had the alternitive vote it we sure see or countrys future of a labor librel coaliton
    for the forceable future this would be awfull and if this happens i will be packing my suit case and leaving.!!!!!

  5. Eddie,

    Incumbent governments show a tendancy lose council elections.

    Thus, there’s no good no bad..

    One might perhpas take the view that they’ll go on losing them until they are dumped from office.

    Then perhaps they might win some again…

    The rest is in the view of some analysts a bit of soap opera..

    The longer you are in power, the more you lose..

    Also the more you gained from 18 years of opposition [Labour], 13 years of opposition [Tory], then the higher threshold you have reached, thus your fall will be even harder…

    UK voters have shown a partial tendency for split ticket voting & for protest voting…

    That might mean that if blue are in power at the top level, the reds will make gains at council level..

    I suppose there is a degree of how drastic where those losses… I guess anyone who tries to answer that one straightforward will find it exceptionally difficult not to be in some way partisan…

    Ed Mili will be hoping Leicester South, Wales and Councils give a hat-trick to mitigate the tragic loss of Scotland [Holyrood].

    I would certainly forfeit every council gain, and and an overall majority in Cardiff, just to be in with a shout of forming the next Scottish government.

  6. Some serious talk in Tory Party ranks of arresting Bob Crow as a threat to national security should there be any more Tube strikes.

  7. I’ver been told that some polling statons in London have had fewer than 30 voters up to 12 noon – turn out in London is going to be below 20% I would have thought.

  8. DAVIDB

    Turn out this morning at my polling station seemed fairly standard. Including one 91 year old lady who has voted in every election since 1945!

  9. ‘WOLF
    Some serious talk in Tory Party ranks of arresting Bob Crow as a threat to national security should there be any more Tube strikes.’

    You’d have to be joking I hope. Tube travel is not that important. And I loathe Johnson’s idea of 50% plus for strike ballots–I’d only agree to it if all MPs had to be elected by 50% of the enrolled electorate…

  10. @DavidB – No elections in this neck of the woods either, and I get the impression that the referendum is being ignored.

  11. Eddie,

    Consensus seems to be that Miliband is expected to take 1000+ council seats. Significantly more would be a good night, significantly less combined with a large No vote in the referendum would be bad.

  12. Sorry guys, I know we are all poll dweebs but I think there is something to be said for banning polls a week or two before an election. I’m fed up of being told a) what I think and b) what the result will be. It definately influences people and I think that’s wrong

  13. “I think there is something to be said for banning polls a week or two before an election”

    I’m with you on that one Ashley.

    It’s all part of our society’s media driven, need-to-know neurosis.

    We’re told what politicians are going to say before they’ve even said it, what the results are before they’ve been announced (cf Nick Robinson at the Labour leadership contest!) We’re not given a chance to listen or see for ourselves or make our own decisions before any event is mediated and analysed out of existence.

    First time anyone’s called me a dweeb btw but I’ll let you off ;-)

  14. Ashley, I think we’d all be at a bit of a loose end.

  15. DavidB – work colleagues I’ve spoken who’ve voted in London today are all saying the same thing: tumbleweed at the polling booths……

  16. Thanks for the replies. I shall retreat happily back into my quiet dweebdom. (Dweebness?)

  17. @TGB/Eoin
    “I would certainly forfeit every council gain, and and an overall majority in Cardiff, just to be in with a shout of forming the next Scottish government.”

    Sorry, can’t agree with that. Indeed there seem to have been so many hyped-up promises being made (by all sides) in the Scottish campaign that any party winning with a majority or near majority is going to have a great deal to live up to. Plus the financial reckoning which English councils are already dealing with seems to have been postponed in Scotland until after these elections.

  18. Phil,

    What part of “in with a shout of forming the next government” did you take to mean as a “majority”?

  19. If the May 2010 General Election in Leicester South had had a turnout of 40%, then Labour would have got c.14,000 votes, the Liberal Democrats would have got 8,300 and the Tories would have got 6600. UKIP would have got less than 500 votes. Based upon the Survation poll published on 1 May, we can say that on a turnout of 40%, Labour are now forecast to get 18757 votes, a near 5,000 vote increase on 2010 (based upon an equalized turnout). Recalibrating that back to a turnout of 61%, it would mean a 7,000 vote increase on May 2010. The Liberal Democrats are set to shed 4,000 votes and almost half their vote,leaving them with 4,300. It appears that this would be to the benefit of the Labour Party. The Tories look set to lose 500 votes based on a 40% share of the vote but remain at a steady 6600 votes. The 300% forecast increase in the UKIP vote to 1500 might lead some to suggest that they have captured some of the small number of lost Tory votes. Lastly, the Greens and BNP have not fielded a candidate.

  20. Voted in Southwark: riverside, by the Tate Modern. Polling station completely deserted, atttendent asleep!

  21. @TGB/Eoin

    By using the phrase “in with a shout of forming a next government” I assumed you meant in with a shout of a Scottish election result that could result in any of the following
    – a government with an outright majority
    – a near majority coalition or minority government which can generally get its way
    – a weak coalition or minority government which it is easy to defeat issue by issue

    Did you mean something else by using that wording?

    My comments were directed to the first two scenarios, which might normally be seen as the most desirable for any party.

  22. Just voted in Stratford-Upon-Avon (solidly conservative for the last 50 years) and I can add to the other anecdotal evidence by saying the polling station was really quiet. In fact when I turned up at the door it looked as though I’d just woken one of them up! Surely there can’t be a huge surprise on the cards….

  23. Phil,

    I doubt anyone will ever get a majority in Holyrood…

    You said

    “Sorry, can’t agree with that. Indeed there seem to have been so many hyped-up promises being made (by all sides) in the Scottish campaign that any party winning with a majority or near majority is going to have a great deal to live up to. Plus the financial reckoning which English councils are already dealing with seems to have been postponed in Scotland until after these elections.”

    No. That is not anything remotely close to what i meant.

  24. Phil,

    I said

    “I would certainly forfeit every council gain, and and an overall majority in Cardiff, just to be in with a shout of forming the next Scottish government.”

  25. Well good luck and dry skies to all those standing, taking numbers, knocking up (we are so going to have to explain that to SoCalLiberal) and generally helping out on polling day. And commiseration to Eoin and fellow NI Labourites for not being allowed to put up candidates.

    Thanks to Rob Sheffield for the HoC Library numbers – I’d looked at 2007, but not the others. They do show the Lib Dem ‘local premium’ I discussed before, but also something I hadn’t seen – the increase in the ‘Others’ vote (if you ignore local elections held the same time as a general election). Ironically this has happened with a decline in the number of ‘Others’ getting elected as the number of Independents followed its decades-long decline. Presumably more Greens/UKIP/BNP candidates are standing but comparatively few getting elected.

    As several of us have discussed it’s important not to get hung up on the number of councillors. Partly this is because of the technical reasons mentioned, this should be a good year for them anyway and changes since 2007 would be in their favour. But it’s also because the loss of the ‘tactical Lib Dems’ to Labour because of their disapproval of the coalition. This may actually gain Lib Dem seats for the Tories – ironic if you consider the reason for the defection.

    But, although the Conservatives have not had a honeymoon with the electorate, they still have the basic advantage that a majority of voters believe in the priority of the deficit reduction strategy – even if they disagree in the details. This means much of the Tory vote remains solid and those dissatisfied will more likely abstain or vote UKIP.

  26. @Eoin/TGB
    OK, so what you really meant was something like:
    “I would certainly forfeit every council gain, and and an overall majority in Cardiff, just to be in with a shout of forming the next minority or coalition Scottish government.”

    Can’t agree with that either.

  27. Phil,

    The first word of that quote is the most important.. I’m glad to have cleared up your misunderstanding of what ‘in with a shout’ referred to.

  28. Roger,

    Thanks for the commiserations. Another 4 years of Homophobes, sectarian and chauvinist governance to look forward to.

  29. I think that the Holyrood election carries dangers for both “winners” and “losers” between Labour and SNP.

    The key for Labour, given their dismal non-campaign. ( Whoever devised a strategy that did not focus on demolishing the SNP record and Salmond’s actual credibility needs sacking) is to show progression from 2007 in both seats and votes – thereby avoiding total disaster – rather than actually attempt to go into a minority government – unlike the SNP the Tories have no goodwill nor shared values with the Labour party,and Lib-dem and Green numbers look like being so small as to render any rainbow coalition unviable. I suspect SNP will clearly win anyway.

    Problem for NATs in minority rule is that they can’t meet the promises on University funding and council tax without savage suts in public sector job numbers which they will not be able to pass off so easily as Tory cuts, and that their existence will be predicated upon their continued following of an essentially Scots Tory agenda to maintain their support. Should they now “lose” this election and finish a seat or two below Labour even gaining seats into the low 50’s such is the expectation that this very good result will be seen as failure.

    The nightmare scenario for the parliament is Labour as largest party unable to garner support and SNP a seat or two behind being able to garner that support via the tories. Would they, could they take on the role of government in that position? And if not, then what kind of admninistration could actually be viable?

  30. If, as it seems, turnout really is rock bottom today, is there just a smidgen of a chance that Yes might sneak to victory…..?

  31. The Daily Telegraph has published an article to restrict the votes only to tax payers. I am not sure if the 20% is included

    h ttp://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010127/a-tax-based-alternative-to-the-alternative-vote/

  32. When I visited my polling station it was full of people with long queues outside and lots of arguments going on about AV.

    Er, not really.

    Will a low turnout be a good thing for democracy? Does it say voters are unhappy with all the parties and candidates?

  33. Abandoning universal suffrage clearly has merit.

    In a few years we could even have our own rebels supported by foreigners.

    You know it makes sense.

  34. There were more election staff than voters at the polling station when we went about an hour ago. The only argument about AV was between me and the wife.

    If the Yes campaign did squeak a victory – then the low turnout could give them a credibility problem.

  35. Regrettably my wife found the polling card I had hidden, not very skilfully. So that’s at least one vote for YES.

  36. I voted NO in the AV ref. But I have to say it will be absolutely hilarious if Yes wins because of an abysmal turnout.

    NC and the LDs could conceivably be happy, but DC and the Cons would be fuming.

    I almost regret voting no…

  37. There are a couple of other points in the Conservatives’ favour as well. One is that Labour has not been able to make an overwhelming case for the effect of local government cuts.

    YouGov have been running a more or less fortnightly tracker with the question Local councils in many parts of Britain are cutting some of their services. Thinking about the area where you live, which of these statements comes closest to your view?

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-trackers-economy-050511.pdf

    The number saying My local council is mainly responsible, because it could achieve most of the savings it needs by cutting costs, without cutting services has remained pretty constant at around 34% and the number blaming the Government has actually fallen – possibly due to voters in non-urban areas being less affected by the cuts.

    The second point as has been mentioned, is the dominance of the news by non (domestic) political matters. I don’t think this is due to any “feelgood” factor. As Brits we don’t take to the streets chanting (‘The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland’ is a bit less catchy than ‘USA, USA’) and the killing of Mr bin Laden actually makes only 12% of us think that it will make the West safer from terrorism. See:

    ht tp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-bobama-obinladen-050511.pdf

    Indeed even the Royal Wedding doesn’t enthuse us that much. When asked How closely have you been following news about the wedding twice as many Americans as Brits answered ‘very closely’:

    ht tp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/cbs_monarchy_results.pdf

    (alright 6% versus 3%, but still).

    so the real benefit of these events has been to keep other news out of the headlines, rather than spread a lot of happiness. Still that helps the government as opposition voters will be less fired up by the news to oppose them.

  38. Surprisingly busy at my little country station – and we only have the referendum, no councils.

    An old school type in a deerstalker declared to all and sundry that “this is all Cameron’s fault!” I presumed he meant having to be dragged out of his house with his wife, herself in a neck brace, just in order to confirm the status quo.

    Then the man behind the desk that checks your cards piped up with, “And Clegg’s. If it wasn’t for Clegg this wouldn’t be happening.”

    Is that allowed? Shouldn’t he be inscrutable and strictly neutral?!

  39. Mike N

    “When I visited my polling station it was full of people with long queues outside and lots of arguments going on about AV.

    Er, not really.

    Will a low turnout be a good thing for democracy? Does it say voters are unhappy with all the parties and candidates?”

    No, but it reminds us that this is a pointless waste of money to keep self-named so-called ‘Progressives’ happy on a subject that is of virtually no interest or benefit to ordinary people.

  40. @All

    Time for a general round-up of how IMO the local elections could go.

    Firstly the Metropolitian Boroughs. There are 36 of them and they currently up for election have Lab 392, Con 182, LD 177, Green15, BNP3, UKIP 2 and Ind/Others122. Total 893.

    17 of these boroughs have Lab in overall control, 3 have Con, 2 have LD and 14 have No Overall Control (NOC). So this is an area where Lab already has more councillors than both Con and LD combined. There is also a significant number of minor parties, Independents and Others.

    Of the 17 Lab councils, they would retain all 17. (Wow bet that was surprise – not!)
    Of the 3 Con councils they would retain control in 2(Dudley and Trafford), but the third (Walsall) will fall to NOC but with Con still as the largest party.
    Of the 2 LD councils they would probably lose 1 (Newcastle upon Tyne) straight to Lab overall control. Their 2nd council (Stockport) would fall to NOC with a Toss-Up (TU) between LD and Lab for largest party.

    Of the 14 NOC councils, Lab is the largest party in 7, Con in 5 and LD in 2.

    Of these 7 Lab, Bolton, Bradford, Leeds, North Tyneside, and Oldham are gained outright by Lab, whilst Kirklees remains NOC with Lab the largest party. Rochdale officially has Lab as the largest party but in reality it is LD with an Ind Group (consisting of former LDs) that have the majority. This coalition loses seats but with Con support will probably retain control.

    Of the 5 Con, Calderdale and Solihull remain NOC with Con the largest party. Birmingham is probably gained outright by Lab, but it is very close and could be NOC with Lab largest party. Bury remains NOC but with Lab the largest party. Wirral remains NOC but a TU for largest party between Lab and Con.

    Of the 2 NOC LD largest party, Sefton remains NOC with Lab as the largest party, (but wait for it!), Sheffield is either a gain by Lab or NOC with Lab the largest party.

    I will let any interested parties study these before dealing with the Unitaries.

  41. @ Mike N

    “I almost regret voting no…”

    You will do when a Tory government gets elected at the next GE with a wedge of Ashcroft and banker cash and 38% of the vote.

    If that happens, I will personally be excommunicating all my friends who voted ‘No’ because they “didn’t like the cuts” and blamed Nick Clegg for them.

    I am absolutely livid with them.

  42. Far Easterner
    “No, but it reminds us that this is a pointless waste of money to keep self-named so-called ‘Progressives’ happy on a subject that is of virtually no interest or benefit to ordinary people.”

    Aye

  43. Will BNP get any? Will they implode if they get zero?

  44. At my polling center the 2 minutes I was there a steady stream 5 out 7 in (I had to wait for clear doorways to get in and out (electric buggy)) that was at 10.30, out of that 12 people 1 under 30, 3 = 50-60, and 8 = 60+, which to be honest is what would be expected at that time of day.

    It has just started to rain 16.43 which may affect the late turnout if it continues for a long period.

  45. ‘THE GREEN BENCHES
    The Daily Telegraph has published an article to restrict the votes only to tax payers. I am not sure if the 20% is included
    h ttp://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010127/a-tax-based-alternative-to-the-alternative-vote/’

    Seriously? No elected Head of Sate, no elected Upper House and no universal suffrage. Wow, we’d be a prime candidate to be invaded by us to bring democracy…

  46. Robert C

    I’m not taking the bait.

  47. Good to see you are taking the decision to vote YES on highly thought through and principled points on the merits of each system then Robert…

  48. Maybe there will be a last minute rush like there was at the GE……d’oh! the deadline’s expired.

  49. Far Easterner

    “No, but it reminds us that this is a pointless waste of money to keep self-named so-called ‘Progressives’ happy on a subject that is of virtually no interest or benefit to ordinary people.”

    Yes.

    The expected loss of this referendum has focused on NC’s part in it-but what about EM.

    I wonder if his constant sniping at the idea of the Coalition ( together with the antics of VC & CH) has made people think that any voting system which makes coalitions more likely is to be avoided.

    I noticed that both John Reid & John Prescott gave one overiding reson for their objections to AV-more Coalitions ( by implication-like this awful one !)

  50. Welsh Assembly declaration times according to the PA-
    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/wales_2011_by_time.php

1 2 3 4 5