One more final poll for the referendum tomorrow – YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of YES 40%, NO 60%. That’s in the same sort of ball park as YouGov’s AV polling over the last fortnight or so, a very substantial NO lead (unless the polls are horribly, horribly wrong a NO victory appears a certainty) but not as large as suggested by ComRes and ICM. The poll was conducted yesterday and today, with a sample of 5,725.

There is apparently also an Angus Reid poll on AV due out tonight – I do not know when or where.

To avoid confusion, people are also tweeting a poll from the Metro apparently showing a 4 point lead for Yes. I’ve no idea of the veracity of the poll, but it is of readers of Metro under the age of 44, so is not intended to be a nationally representative poll or a prediction of the overall result.

UPDATE: The final Angus Reid poll on AV is now out, and has YES on 39%, NO on 61%


206 Responses to “Final YouGov AV poll”

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  1. Jamie makes an interesting point,the number of people on this site who have changed their minds at the last minute in favour of yes.If this is replicated across the country ,plus a low turnout,then perhaps all is not done and dusted after all.

  2. I love a good pedant! Being one myself. :)

    Tony,

    – “We English would vote to keep our English Empire in the British Isles even if it does cost us a bob or two!”

    :D I admire your honesty!

  3. @ Ann (in Wales)

    ……… perhaps all is not done and dusted after all……

    If only you were right! However, we must remember that the kind of people who are likely to contribute to this site are by definition interested “thinking” types. I suspect we are collectively whate ever our politics, more likely to be offended by particularly nasty negative campaigning. Sady, evidence of this type of campaigning from the States indicates that more go with the ambient mood of the negativity than the small number of “cerebrals” who are turned off by it. Thus its use by the NO campaign I guess?

  4. Don’t assume this site is representitive of country as a whole. There is little conservative presence and it’s completley dominated by left wing (well that way inclined anyway) contributors.

  5. Please don’t take that as a dig as I think this site is brilliant, but it was just an observation.

  6. John Knight,

    Interesting perception. These things go in cycles. I can remember when some posters used to complain about the right-wing / tory bias on this site. However, the best posters here have always been fair and imppartial in their comments – notwithstanding that we are mostly active in politics, and hence not “neutrals”.

    But in one respect, this site is most definitely not representative of the country as a whole. We are, almost by definition, interested in politics. Joe Public emphatically is not, otherwise we would not routinely see elections with turnouts weel below half, and in some cases below one fifth of eligible electors.

    Paul H-J

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