YouGov’s final Scottish poll has topline figures as below (changes are from the 2007 election, rather than from the previous YouGov poll!). Full tabs are here.

Holyrood constituency: CON 11%(-6), LAB 35%(+3), LDEM 8%(-8), SNP 42%(+9)
Holyrood regional: CON 13%(-1), LAB 32%(+3), LDEM 7%(-4), SNP 35%(+4), Green 6%(+2)

The SNP remain in the lead, but less convincingly than some of the polls a week or two ago. They have a bigger lead in the constituency section than in the regional vote. The Lib Dems and Greens are very close for 4th place. On ScotlandVotes these figures would give the SNP 54 seats, Labour 46 seats, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 7, Greens 5 and one Independent.

Final call for AV will be up later on. ICM’s final call AV is apparently due “soon”


47 Responses to “Final YouGov Scotland poll”

  1. A trend is a trend…SNP will be biggest party on Friday and Greens will improve. Two ‘winners’.

    Labour and LibDems will lose seats and Tories (but surprisingly little, surely Auntie Annabel can’t save that many votes..). Three losers.

    Now it’s up to the “people”.

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  2. AW

    What’s Cons % change from 2007 on regional vote?

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  3. @BT says

    -0.9%

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  4. this just posted elsewhere (one good turn deserves another!)
    in 2007 the final yougov poll had an SNP lead of 6% which turned out to be just 0.7% in votes(they didn’t adjust in those days but still got it badly wrong) – todays poll has an SNP lead of 6% on the unadjusted figures (7% adjusted which seems an odd thing for them to be adjusting in the other direction!).
    Last years eve of poll yougov underestimated Labour by 5% and overestimated the SNP by 1%. We are all interested in betting and politics and yougovs record in Scotland in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2010 was to always overestimate the SNP and underestimate Labour. This is not a political point – it is a betting point!!!!

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  5. Looks to me increasingly clear that the SNP will still be the biggest party, but they won’t have enough MSPs with the greens to have an overall majority.

    If Labour can end up level on where they were in 2007, I wouldn’t call this a disaster

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  6. Jack93,

    2007 was a decline from 2003, which was an even bigger decline from 1999. If Labour don’t increase their popular vote tomorrow, then they are apparently in an irreversible decline in Scotland, because they will probably never have such a winnable election-

    1. The Tory menace is back.

    2. The Lib Dems are in meltdown.

    3. The SNP have had some major problems, including the Megrahi controversy.

    4. They have adopted as many popular SNP policies as possible.

    If Labour can’t win now, can they ever win again in Scotland? Well, quite possibly, but all the signs are that they are caught in a terrific quagmire right now. Also, Iain Gray is probably their most charismatic politician at Holyrood, so it’s not like there is an obvious successor in the wings.

    The collapse of the Lib Dems should have been Labour’s big breakthrough moment in Scotland. There needs to be a lot of soul-searching for why that (apparently) didn’t happen.

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  7. Not sure if this has been mentioned already. Scotland Votes’ final ‘poll of polls':

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/blog/final-poll-of-polls-confirms-snp-lead

    “Using the ScotlandVotes.com election predictor the final Poll of Polls sees the SNP with 59 seats (+12), Labour 42 (-4), Conservatives 12 (-5), Greens 8 (+6), Liberal Democrats 7 (-9), and Margo Macdonald would also retain her seat.”

    For the constituency vote the poll puts the SNP on 44%, Labour on 32%, Conservatives on 12% and the Liberal Democrats on 8%. For the regional vote the SNP are on 38%, Labour on 31%, Conservatives on 12%, Liberal Democrats on 7% and the Greens on 7%.

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  8. What’s also quite interesting that if you take the constituency and list votes for each party and make an average:

    SNP: 41%
    Lab: 31.5%
    Con: 12%
    Lib 7.5%

    Then just for fun, pop them into the Scotland Votes’ 2015 GE predictor, the seats are:

    SNP: 34 (+28)
    Lab: 21 (-20)
    Lib: 3 (-8)
    Con: 1 (n/c)

    Different ballgame by then, and a different climate, but interesting.

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  9. Oh dear, looks like the Auld Alliance needs the cobwebs brushing off it before the referendum. Agence France-Presse have a story on yesterday’s TNS poll here. Nothing odd, you might think, on reading it but note that on the Google map provided, Scotland now seems to be an Eastern suburb of Brent. I wonder how many in Westminster will wish that it were true come Friday.

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  10. Greens only getting 6% in this election seems a bit unlikely to me. Just a purely personal opinion the Poll of Polls looks more credible than the last YouGov poll and, of course, the Poll of Polls is adjusted to reflect it.

    If I were betting at this point (I have had a bet laid for quite some time actually and got some breathtaking odds), I would put the SNP in the high 50s, maybe 56 or 57 and the Greens at 8. I really do think the Greens are going to make a breakthrough in this election. It has the potential to be a real change for them.

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  11. Time for my usua l(but extended!) warning about the unreliability of YouGov’s Labour (and Con and LD) panel selection.

    It may well be right. But if the panel is skewed towards loyalists, this is a good poll for the SNP and Greens.

    If it’s skewed towards disloyalists, it’s a very bad poll for SNP and Greens.

    We’ll be able to get some kind of idea in 30+ hours!

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  12. Oldnat,

    Do you know if anyone is doing an exit poll tomorrow?

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  13. Bill Patrick

    Haven’t heard it mentioned.

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  14. Barbazenzero

    :-)

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  15. Oldnat,

    Shame. It might end up being a long night, then.

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  16. Bill Patrick

    I’m going to bed when I get back from the polling station. I reckon I should get 5 hours kip before we get results.

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  17. Re the new YouGov, and ignoring concerns over potential mixes of the Labour political ID between Holyrood loyal and disloyal, the SV numbers look to be something the SNP would happily have settled for at the beginning of the campaign. In particular, if it turns out not to be merely MoE, the increase in the SNP lead on the list vote since last Friday may prove more critical to the overall outcome than the decrease in the plurality seat lead.

    SV (UNS based?) shows the differences as minimal:
        SNP 54 (nc), Lab 46 (-1), Con 16 (+2), L-D 7 (+1), Grn 5 (-3), Ind 1 (nc)

    My multiplier based calculator suggests:
        SNP 54 (+1), Lab 47 (-1), Con 15 (+1), L-D 7 (+2), Grn 4 (-3), Ind 2 (nc)

    SV suggests 60 (54+5+1) pro independence. My calculations suggest 59 (54+4+1). In either case, support for holding the referendum from the L-Ds would be needed.

    Extending the gap on the list by 1% could prove critical.

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  18. Sky news biggin’ up Salmond massively- what a strange alliance.

    Probably explained by it being the one straw they can pluck given that Labour will likely win a majority in Wales, win big in the English locals and walk the Leicester B :D

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  19. Barbazenzero

    Also a Presiding Officer has to be elected before anything else happens.

    If Labour doesn’t put forward an appropriate candidate, the other parties should punish them severely when convenorships are being allocated.

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  20. OLDNAT
    If Labour doesn’t put forward an appropriate candidate, the other parties should punish them severely when convenorships are being allocated.

    I’m really looking forward to watching that on holyrood.tv. Whoever is Labour’s shop steward at the time (and on this poll it could still be dour Iain) I suspect that Aunty Bella will prove once and for all that she has some understanding of what “the short and curlies” are.

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  21. Apologies, but it looks like there are a bunch of Lib Dems undecided. Given the last poll anyone think their vote may be underestimated?

    Could someone explain to me what those ‘don’t knows’, particularly on the regional vote, mean? Is it 8% of the sample?

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  22. @ Old Nat

    “I’m going to bed when I get back from the polling station. I reckon I should get 5 hours kip before we get results.”

    With the way you guys do election night counts, I’ve always wondered how you’re able to sleep or function at all the next day. I suppose I really don’t function the day after an election either. Also, how do you fall asleep when you’re waiting for the first results to report in? I would imagine it to be highly suspensful.

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  23. Duncan

    Yes, it’s a % of those who say they’ll vote LD for Westminster (1% won’t deign to vote on a mere Scottish election, and 10% of them haven’t expressed a preference for their regional vote). The VI numbers above are repercentaged to exclude them.

    Chances are they won’t bother voting anyway. The percentage of each party’s support saying “certain to vote”

    SNP 80%
    Con 78%
    Lab 74%
    LD 68%

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  24. @Oldnat

    There’s been rumours that Hugh Henry will be put forward.

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  25. SoCalliberal

    A very large dram of Laphraoig will see me off nicely. I’ll be ready for another when I awake – either for celebrating or sorrow drowning. :-)

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  26. A Brown

    That would sound reasonable. Henry has never been one of the bitter divisive crew.

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  27. Hi All

    First time post, but thought I should put this into the mix

    Anyone else seen the Edinburgh Evening News’ wee poll of 200 people today ?

    I can’t find it on the Evening news website, but Margo McDonald, Lothian Idependent candidate, has a pic of it on her Facebook page (very long link below):

    Here are the numbers:

    Constituency

    SNP – 44.8%
    LAB – 26.7%
    LDM – 12.4%
    CON – 7.6%
    DK – 8.6%

    Lothians List

    SNP – 37.5%
    LAB – 9.6%
    LDM – 6.7%
    CON – 10.6%
    GRP – 8.7%
    IND – 22.1% (Margo)
    OTH – 1.0%
    DK – 3.8%

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=158318124230347&set=a.104705159591644.6800.103861876342639&type=1&theater

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  28. SNP tend to poll higher than the actual result. Labour are in a better position pollwise than in 2007. More people are seeing through expert liar Alex Salmond. Good weather will give Labour an extra edge

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  29. ‘OLDNAT
    SoCalliberal
    A very large dram of Laphraoig will see me off nicely. I’ll be ready for another when I awake – either for celebrating or sorrow drowning. ‘

    Exactly why a second census should have been held suggesting moving voting to a Friday or Saturday (and closing it at 8pm) so we all could have had a drink or two, watched the results and slept in the next morning. Surely it would help people engage with politics more if could watch the election results and not have to go to work in the morning?

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  30. Rob S
    If you are Machiavellian, it is worth considering that AS is the most dangerous enemy of the BBC with the posiible exception of Murdoch.

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  31. @Andrew Scobbie

    Really? What do you think about Pentlands?

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  32. @Jack

    “Exactly why a second census should have been held suggesting moving voting to a Friday or Saturday (and closing it at 8pm) so we all could have had a drink or two, watched the results and slept in the next morning. Surely it would help people engage with politics more if could watch the election results and not have to go to work in the morning?”

    I’m all for having the polling stations in the pubs. Watch turnout soar! ;)

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  33. I wonder about all those polls conducted by mainstream media. When you realise that they have only included the so called, “big4″ + “greens”., there is a credulity gap.

    Many people are sick of the deceit and prevarication, about subjects which those mainstream media organisations themselves are promoting or rely upon.

    Certainly the “question” or questions that are put to the public in those polls can distort the result, and if it is indeed the case that several significant parties are excluded altogether from the media process, then these predictions could prove to be meaningless.

    In any case we shall soon know the reality of the only poll that actually matters, and that is the one on May 5th, at the actual ballot boxes. Sadly however this was not a fair contest. No-one will be held accountable for the lies they told in the past, or for the yarns that they have spun to deceive voters this time around.

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  34. @ Old Nat

    “A very large dram of Laphraoig will see me off nicely. I’ll be ready for another when I awake – either for celebrating or sorrow drowning.”

    I take it that’s alcohol. I guess that’s a good way to do it. Normally, once I turn on election coverage, I can’t turn it off and I want to wait until all the votes are counted. But polls close much earlier for me than they do for you.

    @ Barney Crockett

    Goodluck tommorow!!

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  35. why dont people see whats happening to their local councils and the cuts that are being made before judging who has the power in hollyrood in glasgow for example Labour cutting schools and SNP are getting the blame and its the same in other councils so check out your local council first before you vote

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  36. SoCalLiberal

    Laphraoig – “alcohol”? It’s nectar”!

    It’s a deliciously peaty malt whisky from Islay. Probably too heavy for most American palates.

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  37. Dave you win!

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  38. Happy polling day, folks, and let’s hope this pair give us a bit of honesty tonight [if I have to watch BBC Scotland’s coverage via Sky]. STV originally promised to stream their election night coverage for us expats, but I can’t find any mention of it on their site just now.

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  39. Time for a final prediction I think. I’m going for:
    SNP 56
    Labour 43
    Con 15
    LD 7
    Green 6
    Margo 1
    Galloway 1

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  40. Region by region I reckon will go as follows:

    Highlands: SNP to take 6 of 8 constituency seats, LD holding only Orkney and Shetland. List to be 3 Lab, 2 Con, 1 Green and 1 SNP.

    NE: Clean sweep of all 10 constituencies for SNP, list to be 3 Lab, 2 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green.

    Mid & Fife: Labour to hold Kirkcaldy, Cowdenbeath and gain Dunfermline. LD to hold NE Fife, SNP to hold their 4 seats and take Stirling. On the list 2 Lab, 2 Con, 2 SNP and 1 Green.

    Lothians: Labour to hold Ed N & Leith and gain Ed S and Ed Central. SNP to hold Almond Valley and gain Linlithgow, Midlothian N and Ed East. Con hold Pentland and LD hold Ed West. On the list 2 Lab, 2 SNP, 1 Green, 1 Con and Margo.

    Central: SNP to gain airdrie and Falkirk E and hold Falkirk West. Labour to hold 5 remainIng. On the list 4 SNP, 2 Lab, 1 Con.

    West: SNP to take Cunninghame S and Dumbarton, hold Cunninghame N. Lab to gain Eastwood and hold 7 remaining seats. On list 4 SNP, 2 Con, 1 LD.

    Glasgow: SNP take southside and Kelvin. Lab remaining 7 seats. On list 4 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Green, Galloway.

    South: SNP take Clydesdale, Galloway & Dumfries W, hold Kilmarnock and Midlothian S. Lab gain Dumfriesshire and hold E Lothian, Carrick C &DV. Con hold Ayr, ER&B. List 2 SNP, 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green.

    Surprisingly large numbers of constituencies where the result will not affect he overall outcome. As others have said this election will be won and lost by the regional votin patterns, more so than any other previous Scottish election.

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  41. @NorthumbrianScot

    Interesting analysis and probably agree with most of it. However…

    “Surprisingly large numbers of constituencies where the result will not affect he overall outcome. As others have said this election will be won and lost by the regional votin patterns, more so than any other previous Scottish election.”

    Err this is precisely how the system works the FPTP vote is largely irrelevant unless one party does exceptionally well and distorts the result which prevents the list+fptp for a region being proportional.

    I am dismayed that posters to this forum are still in the dark as much as the general media. The election for the Scottish Parliament is almost entirely down to the result of the regional list vote. The whole point of the list vote is that parties get seats to make it more proportional. Thus if you get 36% on the list expect to get 36% of the seats.

    I just wish that the media got this and we all stopped focusing on the FPTP results. The list vote is largely all that matters.

    That said possible distortions such as you point out eg: SNP clean sweep of NE Scotland ie: 100% FPTP seats on less than 50% of the vote cannot be overcome with the list proportionality having only 7 extra seats to allocate. Thus it would be possible for an overall majority of seats on just 42-44% of the vote with the distortions of FPTP making a purely proportional result impossible.

    However at then end of the day I’m fairly confident that if the a party gets 38% of the regional vote they will get around 38% of the seats in the parliament as a whole. etc. Its a proportional system with proportions based on the regional vote – why are we (public and media in general – not specifically NorthumbrianScot) shocked when the results are proportional?

    Are we just so used to the unpredictability of the FPTP system that we cannot grasp proportional systems deliver proportional results?

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  42. My poll, based on what party activists are telling me about the campaign and polling day-

    SNP: 100%

    Labour: 100%

    Tories: 100%

    Lib Dems: 100%

    It looks like it will be a fascinating new parliament, with about 520 MSPs…

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  43. @alexander Bisset. I Should clarify what I meant by the major effect of list voting this time. I obviously realise that the AMS system is designed in this way bigot you look at previous elections there have been multiple regions where parties have gained seats disproportionately to their strict d’hondt entitlements:
    In 1999 Labour gained 9 out of 17 in Central Scotland, 10 out of 17 in Glasgow, 8 out of 16 in Lothian and 9 out of 16 in West. Lib Dems also gained 6 out of 15 in Highland. All these results were above quota meaning that a constituency lost would not be compensated by a list seat.

    In 2003 all these party/region combinations were again over quota except Lothian where Labour’s 6/16 was reduced to their entitlement.

    In 2007 this was reduced again to Labour in Central, West and Glasgow.

    Depending On how well the SNP do in Glasgow the 2011 election could well see the only quota breaches being in NE where SNP look likely to get 9/10 seats and their d’hondt entitlement would probably be 8 or 9.

    I haven’t calculated exact numbers but would say that in the region of 12 seats were decided out of quota in 1999, 11 in 2003, and 5 in 2007.

    You can see therefore that the 2011 election is shaping up to be the most directly proportional of all Scottish Parliament elections meaning that constiebcy votes are much less important than they were in each previous election.

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  44. Not calling you a Bigot! Predictive typing seems to have converted “but if” into bigot. Sorry!

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  45. Great news for expats re my earlier post re STV coverage. Seems they have listened and already gone live (perhaps only as a test) at http://news.stv.tv/election-2011/live/

    Elsewhere on their Election 2011 sub-site they state:
    A special programme, Scotland Decides, hosted by STV’s Political Editor Bernard Ponsonby and presenter Juliet Dunlop, will be on air from 11.10pm [BST/WET = 22:10 GMT/UTC = 00:10 CET] on May 5 and streamed live across the world. It will take voters right the way to 6am the following day with analysis from Professor James Mitchell of Strathclyde University and a series of high-profile studio guests.

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  46. Unlikely as it sounds, BBC Scotland might just be breaking their habit of IP blocking expats from video coverage if the following statement on their Scottish election: Results service on BBC Scotland proves to be true: “A special programme will begin at 2200 BST[/WET = 21:00 GMT/UTC = 23:00 CET] on BBC Radio Scotland. TV coverage begins at 2345 BST[/WET = 22:45 GMT/UTC = 00:45 CET] … ONLINE 2200 BST – onwards: BBC Scotland’s news website will follow the results story with minute-by-minute updates on its LIVE: Election page. Users will also be able to access a live stream of the BBC One Scotland’s election programme.

    The BBC will have Strathclyde’s better known Prof. Curtice, making the STV coverage first choice for me.

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  47. Bill suprisingly that’s what I’ve been hearing in Wales, with Plaid in for the SNP obviously

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