Adrian Masters at ITV Wales has put up the results of YouGov’s final call for Wales. Full tabs are here, topline figures are as follows:

Welsh Assembly Constituency: CON 20%, LAB 47%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 18%
Welsh Assembly Regional: CON 19%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 18%, UKIP 7%

Denis Balsom, ITV Wales’s psephologist, has a seat projection based on these of Labour 31 seats, Conservative 13 seats, Plaid 11 seats and Lib Dems 5. YouGov have referendum voting in Wales as YES 43%, NO 57%.

I am at rehearsals for the BBC election night coverage at evening, so won’t be about regularly to update on the final call polls. There should be final Scottish and AV polls from YouGov (there was a YouGov poll last night on AV giving NO an 18 point lead – suggesting that 10 point lead at the weekend was an outlier – but there is a final call poll still to come), and some polling from Angus Reid and ICM.


32 Responses to “YouGov final Wales poll”

  1. – “Lib Dems 5”

    Who will get more seats: the Welsh Lib Dems or the Scottish Lib Dems?

    Or dead heat?

  2. For fans of Welsh politics and betting, Betfair have a new market up today: “Most Seats w/o Labour”

    No matched bets thus far, but Plaid are available at EVS, Lib Dems at 4/1. No-one is laying Cons.

  3. Just spotted another new market:

    Paddy Power – Total Labour Seats

    27 to 29 10/11
    30 to 32 5/4
    24 to 26 9/2
    33 to 35 9/2
    36 or over 18/1
    23 or lower 20/1

  4. Scotland and wales could hardly be more different for Labour…..very interesting…

    But though there will be a thosand predictions made upon the basis of these elections I guess the truth is….it’s most likely that they’ll make little diffreence in the short term….

    Another year and that may be a very different….but if I were ‘edvising’ Ed Milliband I’d say I hope the operation cures more than sleep apnia…. though I noticed this moring Mr Humphries called him David.

    Well we shall see….I’ll not sleep tomorrow night!

  5. Not really sparkling advice, your suppose to enforce something with advice.

    Anyhow it is vital Labour get a majority in Wales if Scotland is as bad it looks. Mind you I’m not sure how important these elections outside the countries are. I live in Wales now but when the last ones happened I hardly remember much fuss in England.

    AV will take the gloss off the elections and we’ll see what the councils do.

    For Labour I don’t think AV Factors in to the night.

  6. John,

    – “Scotland and Wales could hardly be more different for Labour”

    Indeed. I wonder why Douglas Alexander, Jim Murphy and Anne McKechin have been totally absent from this campaign? We’ve had Broon and Balls and Miliband, but the 3 Scottish shadow cabinet members have been totally, utterly and completely absent.

    Did they scent failure right from the start? Was it them laying LAB Most Seats back in the autumn? ;)

    Speaking of SLAB high heid yins, PP have launched prices today on Next Scottish Labour Party Leader.

    Wot, no Cathy Craigie?

    http://scottish-independence.blogspot.com/2011/05/new-market-next-scottish-labour-party.html

  7. I have just seen this on another site , posted by andrea, YouGov

    Cons

    SNP 42
    Lab 35
    Con 11
    LD 8

    List

    SNP 35
    Lab 32
    Con 13
    Ld 7
    Green 6

    If correct , anyone know how this shifts from previous Yougov?

  8. Cant wait for the results in Wales to stream in this is going to be an intresting race as there are so few seats it will all be decied in a few marginals.

    My prediction
    Labour 31
    Conservatives 13
    Plaid Cymru 12
    Lib Dems 4

    (UKIP will just miss out expecially on North Wales List but also the the South East of Wales List)

  9. Exile,

    (+/- change from YouGov/Scotland on Sunday ending 29 April 2011)

    Constituency vote (FPTP)
    SNP 42% (n/c)
    Lab 35% (+1)
    Con 11% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)

    List vote (AMS)
    SNP 35% (n/c)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Con 13% (+1)
    LD 7% (+1)
    Grn 6% (-1)

  10. Note: a 3 point SNP/Lab lead on the Regional vote is MoE !

    Have Paddy Power paid out too soon?

    Remember, this is an AMS election, not an FPTP one.

  11. Thanks Stuart

    So that is static almost.

    Actually think this is about the best Labour could hope for.

  12. yougov have just posted a dramatic new Scottish poll taken 2-4th May – showing Labour narrowing the lead to 7% and 2% the closest figure for 5 weeks. Given yougov overestimated the SNP by 6% on their eve of poll in 2007 and 2010 are we in for a final shock???

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-yougov-scotlandwalessummary-040511.pdf

  13. Valerie

    From last thread:

    Not sure if Ed Mill is principled on AV, more like opportunist – he was fairly safe either way, has now offered LDs an olive branch with his support and has gone more quiet/weak/lukewarm on it all more recently so as not to be too tarnished with its expected (though not guaranteed IMHO) defeat.

    Of course he still ostensibly supports AV – he would have been the biggest object of scorn in the country if he’d done a u-turn once the polls firmed up ‘No’s lead.

    To be fair, think he’s been fairly shrewd – it was a funny one to call if you didn’t really give a monkeys like most people in this country and wanted to concentrate on policies that matter.

  14. Perhaps. I’d still back the SNP to win overall but you just never know I suppose. That TNS was surely an outlier, and the YouGov seems more realistic, but who knows – the SNP could yet win by a decent enough margin to allow them to just about get through an indepdencence referendum, and I feel people like OldNat have talked down our chances significantly enough from the poll figures that none of us were really expecting a huge win. That YouGov still looks very promising though.

  15. Jessica,

    – “are we in for a final shock???”

    Maybe!

    Note: if you are feeling brave, you can currently buy LAB Most Seats at a ridiculous 15/2 over at Betfair. That is quite simply NUTS when the SNP are only 3 points clear on the regional vote.

    Whoever is Laying LAB at 8.6 needs their head felt. Honestly.

  16. @Calum W

    Seems more plausible. One reason why labour will definitely not win is because I get the feeling people have latched on to anti labour voting on the const ballot
    although narrow lab gains in Dunfermline and Edinburgh Southern could still happen.

  17. Thanks Stuart, any idea how would this would look in terms of seat projections?

    RJK

  18. Sorry RJK, but I am looking after my baby son, and really must log out very soon.

    Do the sums yourself:

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/

    (note, you have to muck about a bit guesstimating ‘Others’)

  19. @ A Brown They should certainly gain Dunfermline, and come close in Edinburgh South at very worst.
    And Stuart, were you not speculating that Shettleston could go on the last comments section? SNP canvassing returns have far bigger samples than any commercial poll at the moment, so party HQ will have a much better idea of how things are panning out than us.

  20. LAB Most Seats just hit 10/1 over at Betfair. The world has actually gone stark raving bonkers. Listen folks, this could be very, very, very tight. 10/1 is simply a stupid price. Stupid.

  21. Calum,

    There is no doubt that we are doing very well in lots of constituencies. And some true shocks are on the cards.

    But how many times do we have to repeat this: THIS IS AN AMS ELECTION !!!

    ie. the SNP could win seats like Shettleston, and still not have Most Seats, due to the list vote.

    Unlikely, but entirely possible.

  22. @Stuart D

    “Just spotted another new market:

    Paddy Power – Total Labour Seats

    27 to 29 10/11
    30 to 32 5/4
    24 to 26 9/2
    33 to 35 9/2
    36 or over 18/1
    23 or lower 20/1”

    It’s been there for a week or more and my view on the previous thread wa that the 30 to 32 range ought to be favourite and was worth backing with perhaps a small insurance bet on 33 to 35. Since then the price has tightened to 5/4.

    The list vote seems to be the more important one if Lab are going to get to 30 seats for reasons previously discussed. This poll gives a bit more assurance that they remain fairly strong favourites to do so.

  23. I’d agree. It’s hard to find good odds on SNP gains in constituency betting, and pretty much impossible in labour held seats. The only one I’d suggest is perhaps NE Fife at 9/4, though it was 9/1 at one stage, and 5/1 in the borders where Paul Wheelhouse seems to be running a very good campaign (though backing him to win from third against a tory is arguably madness!)/

  24. SNP price shortening in Dunfermline (just come in to 6/4 with Paddy Power).

    Edinburgh Southern is looking very tight, but I for one find it very hard to see Pringle holding on.

  25. Thanks Phil. I must admit that I have not been keeping an eye on the Welsh markets.

  26. PS. Just in case anyone wasn’t clear, previous post relates to Wales!

  27. Stuart – you make a very valid point but surely if the SNP was winning in Shettleston it would be winning other seats in Glasgow and across central Scotland which would surely imply that the SNP would have a large enough vote to become at least the largest party? Unless of course the swings in each constituency turns out to be incredibly localised, which I concede could well be true to a greater extent than normal this time round.

  28. Another good poll for Labour here. Although I don’t like there will be a majority for Labour, I think they will score roughtly half the seats, with the Tories overtaking Plaid to become the 2nd largest party, and the Lib Dems will have about 4 seats.

  29. This may sound incredibly naive, but could not the Welsh Assembly feasably have more than 60 members, and wouldnt it be more representative of opinion than trying to shoe horn the representation of 3 million people into 6 representatives, when Scotland only has 2 million more and nearly double the members, and Northern Ireland with only 1.7 million, has a 108 member assembly…….surely the welsh assembly can realistically have more membership (although is it worth the money to add more to the gravy train?

  30. One is more government like though isn’t it Anthony, I expect if devolution continues as it is that a welsh government would get more seats if of course it has more power.

  31. The Welsh Assembly chamber is designed to be expanded to 80 members, there is some food for thought for starters. Morever, it can easily have its membership increased. At the moment 40 AMs are elected FPTP, and 20 via the regional party lists, it wouldn’t take much to incrase it to 40 list (an extra 4 members per region).

    This would, of course, disadvantage Labour, and ensure that there would never be a Labour majority.

  32. Welsh Assembly declaration times according to the PA-
    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/wales_2011_by_time.php