ComRes has a new poll in tomorrow’s Independent, presumably their final call for the AV referendum. Topline referendum voting intention taking into account likelihood to vote and excluding don’t knows and won’t votes stands at YES 34%, NO 66%. 32 points is by far the largest lead we’ve seen for the NO campaign, up from 20 points in the last ComRes poll a week ago.
Standard voting intention figures meanwhile were CON 34%(-1), LAB 37%(-4), LDEM 15%(+2), Others 14%. Changes are from the previous ComRes telephone poll a month ago. This is the lowest Labour lead ComRes have shown in their telephone polls since last year, and the highest Lib Dem score any pollster except ICM have shown since last year.
The poll was conducted between Thursday and Sunday over the long bank holiday weekend – on that basis, I’d better add the same caveat I did to the TNS poll about being cautious about polls conducted over long bank holiday weekends that show unusual results. Wait and see if other polls show the same towering lead for AV – I expect we’ll have more to chew over tomorrow night.
Meanwhile we also have the daily YouGov figures (not conducted quite so much over the bank holiday weekend -fieldwork was yesterday afternoon to this afternoon!). Topline figures there are CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%.