Latest YouGov voting intentions in Wales, conducted for S4C, has topline figures as below (changes are from the last YouGov poll in Wales a fortnight ago).

Welsh Assembly consistuency: CON 21%(+1), LAB 45%(-4), LDEM 8%(nc), PC 18%(+1)
Welsh Assembly regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 41%(-3), LDEM 7%(+1), PC 18%(nc), UKIP 7%, Grn 4%

By my reckoning, this would result in a Welsh Assembly with 32 seats for Labour, 13 Tories, 10 Plaid Cymru and 5 Liberal Democrats. This poll was conducted at the end of last week – there’s a final YouGov Welsh poll to come this week for ITV Wales.


208 Responses to “Latest YouGov Welsh polling”

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  1. “Comres say 34Yes vs 66NO!!! Biggest lead we’ve ever seen for No. 32 point lead That would be amazing on the day”

    That would leave Nick Clegg in desperate trouble.

    Getting beaten in a close vote is one thing, getting hammered by some distance would mean he just made any form of eletoral reform a pipe dream for maybe a generation.

    Lib Dems would be a laughing stock for even raising the possibility of another referendum on electoral reform if they have a heavy defeat like that.

  2. ROBIN

    JH was factually wrong on the use of second preferences.

    It was (is) a fundamental point in AV, & he did not understand how it worked.

    Don’t take my word for it-read the transcript om-line.

  3. @Mick Park – “Lib Dems would be a laughing stock for even raising the possibility of another referendum on electoral reform if they have a heavy defeat like that.”

    Total failure of strategy for the leadership, and devastating for the party.

  4. I’ve read the JH DC transcript.

    DC was factually incorrect. Nobody’s votes are counted more than anyone else’s. A US court has even bothered to rule as such.

    Whether JH was incorrect depends on how you interpret what he was saying.

    “and so is mine” could be taken to refer to his second preference but also to simply refer to his currently relevant preference.

    He could have been clearer but I see nothing in that transcript to suggest that JH doesn’t understand AV.

  5. Following on from Mick Park’s comment, and bearing in mind Peter Bell’s assertion that positioning on the NHS will be a more significant factor for LDs than the AV referendum result…

    One source of frustration for LDs in recent years vis a vis the Labour party has been that its leadership has talked reform but done nothing, however, the lesson may be that to push for a change in the voting system without laying the groundwork/choosing the right time to carry the public with you on this subject is ultimately self destructive.

    To have such a central policy plank (at times it has seemed to be the raison d’etre) of the party decisively rejected will be massively demoralising.

  6. I just listened to the interview. Humphrys is technically incorrect because he talks of everyone’s second preferences getting counted in later rounds when he should have said everyone’s vote. I doubt it was because he doesn’t understand AV. Cameron’s claim that some get extra votes is simply a lie, though, a lie that also appears on his party’s website.

  7. “David Cameron, with a first in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from Oxford, presumably understands AV well enough to know that he is talking poppycock when he talks about some people having more votes than others. It seems that when you are campaigning in a referendum, explicit dishonesty is allowed.”

    http://gowers.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/av-vs-fptp-the-shorter-version/#more-2830

  8. @ JR Tomlin

    “SoCalLiberal, I know there are LGBT Scots who are not thrilled with the idea of being in the same party as Brian Souter, but SNP is on the right side of gay marriage which goes a long way. The fact that Labour was early on the bandwagon of LGBT rights doesn’t answer two questions: 1. What have you done for me lately? and 2. Can you run the government well over-all?

    Which of those the LGBT community in Scotland is reacting to is an interesting question. Perhaps both in some measure, but I suspect lacking a lot of difference on specifically LGBT issues, it is primarily the second.”

    I think that makes sense. I think Labour deserves more credit than being seen as jumping on the bandwagon. I think the second question is far more important than the first.

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