Saturday night polls

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%. The five point Labour lead is typical of the YouGov polling we’ve seen this week.

In tomorrow’s papers we also have a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday which has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, and also an AV question showing YES on 33% and NO on 51%. Given it is a BPIX poll and tables are not normally forthcoming, I do not know what question was asked, and whether it used the bare referendum wording or had some introduction.

As is traditional, Kenny Farquharson of the Scotland on Sunday has also been teasing people about a new YouGov Scotland poll on twitter… I’m afraid I don’t know what’s in that one yet, or whether or not it has voting intention figures!


117 Responses to “Saturday night polls”

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  1. I have been monitoring LALA since May. [Labour and Libs added]. 51% is lowish… It suggests minor trouble.

    The LALA range as I have explained is much smaller that the ATTAD range.. ie less volatility.

    It feeds into my longstanding mantra… “reds gain at yellow expense”.

    In short, it leaves reds perilously exposed to a LD recovery…

    That recovery might not happen. There might not be tactical rewind to yellows, or tactical voting from reds to keep Tories out. The seat reduction might not hurt Labour. AV might not fail…

    But if even a couple of those possibilities turn out to be so… it ‘might’ pose problems for reds.

    Perhaps the cuts have not hit yet.. perhaps the VAT and oil hikes never really hurt, perhaps blues will collapse when cuts really start to bite. Perhaps an unforseen event might scupper things.

  2. Tory vote still holding up well. Labour vote fallen slightly over hhe past month to 41-42%. I really think that Labour needs to erode the Tory vote by the end of this year and be polling consistent 12-15 point leads if it is to maximise its chances of winning in 2015.

    All to play for.

  3. Anthony

    “I’m afraid I don’t know what’s in that one yet, or whether or not it has voting intention figures!”

    Just to reassure you. it does have VI. :-)

  4. I think it’s inevitable that Laboyr will pull ahead in the next year to year and a half. They have an open goal to aim at given the scale of the problems the coalition is going to have weather in 2011-2012. The real test will be whether Labour can hold onto a big lead come 2014 when the economy is recovering and the coalition offer the populace nice sweeteners.

    Conservatives perhaps favourites to be re-elected in 2015, but only just.

  5. At last, real polls to talk about:

    So Lab 5 ahead in both polls and the LD 12 was clearly a blip. What would this mean for Council Elections? That would basically be a direct 12 point swing to Lab from LDs (if it was repeated at a GE).

    So Eoin – you seem to be talking sense (as usual). But don’t forget there is always some swing between reds and blues too. People seem to think that Lab’s 40-ish% is made up of strong Lab voters or LD deserters but there is a good chunk of all blue & red scores that are made up of floating voters that float between the two.

    And Eoin – from a previous thread – you seem to be keen to find out the reason for the Labs lost CofE vote. As a Lab CofE voter myself my theory is that the CofE is inherently conservative (indeed the CofE used to be derogatorily called “The Conservative Party at Prayer” – and never was this more accurately shown than yesterday morning!).

    But that disguised the fact that a huge number of CofE parishes and clergy work in the most deprived places of Britain. They began to desert the Cons because of Thatcher’s “no society” and then because of the sleaze of the Tories and then the perceived anti-foreigners stance (many, many CofE churches work very hard with immigrants, assylum seekers and the homeless).

    So with Blair’s Christianity, social conscience and generally small C compassionate conservatism, they flocked in great numbers.

    I think Iraq was a major reason for the desertion, but then also the Tories losing their immigration hating image and becoming more One Nation, NHS loving, and Big Society promoting (at least on the surface). Certainly some senior Cons have brought into a sort of Wiberforcian view of social responsibility (e.g. Duncan-Smith).

    It will be interesting to see what might happen now immigration, NHS and attacks on the voluntary sector seem to be reverting to type.

    But Labour needs a leader to attract people back, and I’m afraid Ed M doesn’t cut it. Perhaps David M would but not sure even then …

  6. Mail on Sunday poll SNP 45%, Lab 35% constituency and 41% to 36% on the list

  7. @Adrian,

    Labour reject religiously-minded and conservative social values as expounded by the Bible. The Tories reject socialism in the broadest sense.

    Therefore, I don’t think most priests would endorse the Tories or Labour. Both parties endorse Godless policies, but for different reasons. I don’t think God or Jesus would be left or right wing, I think he’d be above politics!!

  8. Based on MoS polling, Stephen Noon of the SNP is tweeting seat projection of 62 SNP to 51 Labour, 8 Tory, 5 Lib and 3 Green

  9. Adrian,

    Yes good point..

    1.68% of the UK electorate [not an insignificant amount would vote blue 1 red 2…

    An almost identical amount would do the opposite..

    [AV poll c.4,000 sample YG]

    3.4% of the electorate is off the top of my head.. 1.3 million..

    Enough to make a difference on polling day..

    that data is blind on the DKs though [a blind spot of my own].. its very hard ot analyse a DK.. perhaps it would be nice just to view them as WNVs…

    Simplistic I accept.

  10. “I don’t think God or Jesus would be left or right wing….”

    Chr*st Almighty! After an eternity of watching party political broadcasts The Omnipotent Being is still an undecided.

    Or perhaps he hedges his bets and just votes liberal?

  11. @TheGreenBenches

    “Ana Elly Mnak Enta Mny
    LALA Me Teb’d ‘any”
    (I am part of you and you are part of me
    don’t, oh don’t go away from me) (From a Lebanese song)
    In other words, LALA is a Freudian love-hate couple, and I agree with you that the behavior of the voters floating to and fro between them will in great part determine the outcome of next GE (unless something unforeseeable happens, as it often does lately).

  12. Tweeting rumours, (and only rumours mind!!)-

    Suggesting ICM/ Mail on Sunday Scottish poll has top line figures of SNP 45 / LAB 35 for the constituency vote and 41 / 36 for the regional vote respectively.

    Apparently further You Gov and Ipsos Mori polls are due out tonight.

    Confirmation on any news here anybody????

    Stevie.

  13. Alec,

    ROFLMAO! Got to be the funniest post tonight!

  14. MorayLoon
    “Based on MoS polling, Stephen Noon of the SNP is tweeting seat projection of 62 SNP to 51 Labour, 8 Tory, 5 Lib and 3 Green”

    So no absolute majority. Is it more likely to be a minority govt or a coalition. If the latter, who would join with who?

  15. A couple of people were wondering if the wedding would have any polling impacts. I suppose it is still a touch early to tell conclusively but so far everything looks a little static. I’m trying to recall events like budgets to guess the required time lag and it seems to be more like 3 – 4 days, although that follows an unwinding analysis in the media. Any wedding effects are likely to be pretty short lived as everyone moves on from the story, so maybe any impact is too short lived to make an impression on polls.

  16. VIRGILIO,

    It sounds very apt indeed….. I’ll go dig that song up… :)

  17. @ Pete B

    SNP have made clear preference for a second minority Government. Personally, I think this seat outcome is unlikely. It implies a total squeeze on Cons, LibDems and Greens (who only compete for list vote). Plus it is likely the current independent (close to SNP) Margo MacDonald will get re-elected on list vote. I’d say 1-2 more Greens plus Margo and probably a couple less Labour and 1-2 less for SNP. But that’s off the top of my head quickly checked against Scotland Votes calculator.

  18. @Alec,

    Lol.

    It just makes me laugh when people bring religion into politics, and say X party is more Christian. Politics and religion are completely separate.

    The wedding had no/miminal effect on the polls, as I would have expected. Tory’s static on 36, Labour on 40-42, Libs on about 10.

  19. @The Green Benches
    It is called “Habibi” (My Love) and is interpreted by Majida El Roumi – courtesy of my Lebanese friends and former colleagues in Paris University Zineb and Leyla to whom I owe my (alas, very incomplete) knowledge of Lebanese Arabic.

  20. @Adrian B – “But Labour needs a leader to attract people back, and I’m afraid Ed M doesn’t cut it. Perhaps David M would but not sure even then …”

    I find this an odd statement to make given Labour lost last may with 30% of the vote and now seem to be in a clear and comfortable majority lead with 40 – 42% of the vote, without even having gone through their policy revision process.

    I’m not a Labour supporter and I’m well aware that their vote might be soft and we could see all kinds of changes between now and any given election date, but like Eoin’s repeated assertions that Labour is in some kind of trouble and the 2015 election is slipping away from them, your assessment doesn’t appear to be based on any significant polling evidence.

    For example, you could equally say that Cameron is in trouble because the Tories have only received a very minor winners boost, have lost that already and are barely holding onto a level of support that guarantees they cannot win a majority next time around, even if Labour’s vote collapses and with the long term outlook for the economy being significantly worse than they had hoped for. This is more supported by the polls than your statement surely?

  21. Ambivalentsupporter

    We have two different Christian Parties asking for votes in Scotland. At least one of them simply appears to be the homophobic party.( My butcher wonders why they have put a poster opposite his shop – do they think he is a homosexual? (with 6 kids, probably not) do they think he is a heathen? (he freely admits to the charge.)

  22. @ Ambivalent Supporter,

    You are mostly right, but actually there is a strong Christian Socialist tradition in the Labour party (Chris Bryant was a CofE priest, John Smith, Tony Blair and GB were in this strand). And there is a similar right of centre Christian group in the Conservatives.

    Yes, completely agree that God is above politics, but my post relates to Eoin wondering why so many CofE Labour voters deserted them from 1997.

    People’s faith (in whatever guise – be it Christian, Buddhist or humanist) will be one of the factors that affect their vote, so to say religion and politics should be separate is as nonsensical as saying beliefs and politics should be separate.

    That would make these threads very dull places indeed :-)

  23. I suspect the way it’s going in Scotland, Labour will be happy to just keep it’s 46 seats, and hope the SNP don’t take too much from the Liberals and Tories

  24. Rome is surely a FPTP fan while the CofE would favour an AV-style consensus.

    Who’s measuring the CofE vote, BTW, and is CofE still the default option for everyone who doesn’t pick anything else?

  25. JACK93

    Despite my doubts about YouGov’s methodology when applied in a purely Scottish context, I reckon it’s still likely to be more accurate than Progressive Scottish Opinion.

    Under AMS, Labour could lose massively in terms of the vote, but still make up a lot of seats on the list. It’s still very unpredictable in terms of actual seats.

  26. As a left wing atheist, the argument that god is above politics just shows me the moral paucity of much of modern religious thinking. If you really believed in a biblical god then it would seem sinful to me not to intertwine god with politics. The fact that god could be on both sides or neither is as good an argument for the case that god was invented by man as any other I can think of.

  27. Why did the Labour party choose Ed Miliband (just)?

    He was not my first choice, but my initial impression is that he has grown immeasurably into the role, is getting the measure of his opponents, and more importantly is operating according to dictates of his own timetable.

    He is young, but if he continues to take his opportunities and continues to not put a foot wrong, the public may well begin to take notice of him.

  28. Well we won’t have long to wait. But I’m still of the view that the leadership issue in Scotland is a bigger issue for Labour….

    What this demostrates is that coasting to victory of the coattaiuls of other’s unpopulairty is not the best way to win an election.

    If I were Mr Milliband I’d be concerend about how Mr Grey does… nad concerend to learn from what seems ot have happened….

  29. @Adrian B – I fully agree with you in your interpretation of the reasons for the apparent CofE drift from Labour. Blair simply reached parts other Labour leaders never had, due to a combination of his own appeal and a dire Tory party. The picture now is less a comment on the current Labour party but rather the unwinding of a highly unusual period of polling that has now passed.

  30. Adrian,

    I searched back over 37 years of polling [I am sadly, very sadly, tabulated it all]

    I think..

    24 hour drinking
    Super dooper casinos
    Stem Cell
    GM this GM that
    Perhaps being inhospitable to some Muslim nations
    Excessive profit and wages
    Broken Britain
    Drug, Alcohol abuse rising
    Dilution of British Identify [this is a huge if but cannot be discounted]
    a seemingly overly political correct agenda
    Being seen as too pro women or too pro gay.. [that B7B story threw up interesting polling data]

    Adrian,

    All of this is tangential… and meaningless without a properly dedicated poll on the matter]. I think there are a few specially commissioned religious polls out there.. perhpas Anthony can facilitate it for you

  31. A lot can still happen but a few points from this latest Scottish poll; until now all four trad lead parties have been represented in all regions, this will end for the LDs and Tories, the Tories are heading for their worst electoral performance ever in Scotland in terms of vote share (IMO this is due to almost telling their supporters to vote for AS), Scotland more of a two party system than the UK.
    Better Nation which I think it is fair to describe as a proSNP, pro Green web-site has an interesting run-down of who is voting for whom at present
    One slight caveat is that even now I know from the door-step that quite a lot of people still have to decide. Some are IMO shy LDs but others still have to decide between Labour and SNP
    If these figures are the outcome on Thursday, ML in Brussels is I think right in his calculations and also correct that it will be a minority admin with (IMO,reliable tory backing except for an independence referendum where the exact figures for greens/Margo will come in to play. Of course I am hoping for different!

  32. Oh dear. Over on PB, Mike Smithson has an entry on the coalition tensions with the Observer front page showing the ‘Cabinet War…’ headline and a nice picture of Will and Kate.

    Below a reproduction of the article he writes: “Are we heading to a loveless marriage where neither partner is able to leave?”

  33. Adrian,

    I searched back over 37 years of polling [I am sadly, very sadly, tabulated it all]
    I think..
    24 hour drinking
    Super dooper casinos
    Stem Cell
    GM this GM that
    Perhaps being inhospitable to some Mus lim nations
    Excessive profit and wages
    Broken Britain
    Drug, Alcohol a buse rising
    Dilution of British Identify [this is a huge if but cannot be discounted]
    a seemingly overly political correct agenda
    Being seen as too pro women or too pro g ay.. [that B&B story threw up interesting polling data]

    All of this is tangential… and mea ningless without a properly dedicated poll on the matter]. I think there are a few specially commissioned religious polls out there.. perhpas Anthony can facilitate it for you

  34. Mail on Sunday poll SNP 45%, Lab 35% constituency and 41% to 36% on the list
    ————————————————-
    Is this the YouGove poll that was being tweeted about, or another poll?
    8-)

  35. Amber

    The Mail on Sunday one is Progressive Scottish Opinion. We’re still waiting for the YouGov one for SoS/Scotsman.

  36. Didn’t realise it was Progressive Scot Opinion
    Hold fire

  37. Adrian,

    I have posted you two long responses.. [both nabbed by mod]

    So I’ll just give you a link to a piece I have written on it..

    h ttp://t.co/XgEJCCd

  38. @Adrian,

    Yes, agree that religious beliefs obviously may have an effect on someone’s political orientation. So, in the broader sense, religion and politics are not completely separate. The average voter probably doesn’t think that deeply, however IMO.

  39. I think it’s highly unlikely that the coalition will implode over the impending local election losses. I strongly expect this coalition to last the full term (for many reasons). However, I do think that it may create tensions between the two parties, making dialogue and political decision making more difficult. That is always the risk.

  40. AmbivalentSupporter

    I agree that the average voter probably doesn’t think in a “I am a Jedi, therefore I will vote Green” kind of way, but I think that cultural influences may come into play.

    For instance, the majority of inner-city areas (in England) retrun a labour MP, and that is where the majority of non CofE (e.g. Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, Irish Catholics etc) reside at present. Therefore it is a reasonable deduction that those groups are more likely to vote Labour. This isn’t meant to be racist, religionist, or anything else, just an observation.

  41. “I do think that it may create tensions between the two parties”

    And tensions within the parties, at least (assuming a ‘no’ victory) within the LibDems.

  42. Political betting reporting that the SOS poll is showing SNP with an 8% and 2% lead so still ahead but a clear narrowing and a collapse in the tories and the libdems so maybe a few surprise results coming up.

  43. Faith in the City (1985) provoked fury in the Tory party (“Marxist clerics in charge of the CofE” etc), but there is the time-lag for the effects of Thatcherism to have become undeniable and self evident.

    Huhne is taking the opportunity now to point to the necessity of a left of centre majority able to avert a repeat of the excesses of Thatcherism.

  44. Billy Bob
    “effects of Thatcherism” This is rather quick for Mrs T to get a mention. It’s usually after about 100 posts.

    Have you ever heard of Godwin’s Law? This seems to be a modern version.

    Isn’t it time that the left realised that she has not been in power for over 20 years, and that they themselves might have some responsibility for the current crisis, having won 3 consecutive elections since then?

  45. @Peter B,

    True.

    Cynical though it may sound, I think a lot of voters vote purely on economic grounds, though. It’s simply to do with which party supports ‘people like them’ for the vast majority of voters, even ones who are, perhaps, convinced that they are voting on ideological grounds. Ideology comes from personal circumstances and experiences as much as regious beliefs IMO.

    I do agree with your example, however. I think, in politics, there are many factors at play.

  46. Pete B

    Does equating posts on Thatcher as a modern version of Godwin’s law, amount to Godwin’s Law itself?

    This could get really complicated. :-)

  47. @Alec

    “For example, you could equally say that Cameron is in trouble because the Tories have only received a very minor winners boost, have lost that already and are barely holding onto a level of support that guarantees they cannot win a majority next time around, even if Labour’s vote collapses and with the long term outlook for the economy being significantly worse than they had hoped for. This is more supported by the polls than your statement surely?”

    Of course, you’re exactly right in what you say, and the assessment that the Tory vote has “remained remarkably stable/durable/robust etc” depends on what you compare the current 36% VI level to. Stable vis-a-vis their mediocre, quasi-disastrous, GE performance, I agree, but not at all if you compare it to the 40-45% support they enjoyed for some considerable time in the summer and autumn last year. Now, I know there was some honeymoon “souffle” in there, but if you use that level of support as a benchmark and, if others can be selective, why can’t we all, then they have lost about a fifth of the support they once enjoyed in the early part of this Parliament.

    If you were a Labour partisan and believed that the Tory Party was as relaxed and insouciant about their electoral prospects as some of their sympathisers on these pages pretend to be, then their complacency may provide some succour and encouragement. However, there are many serious minded Tories, one of whom is the estimable and impressive Tim Montgomerie, who don’t share this blasé nonsense at all. Their May 2010 GE performance sent a chill through the heart of these more sober minded, realistic and hard-headed Conservatives who felt that it underlined the inherent electoral weakness that has bedevilled the party for 20 years.

    I think Montgomerie and his ilk might prove to be better friends to their party in the long run. A sober and honest appraisal beats self-delusion any day and Labour had to learn that hard lesson for a good part of the 1980s.

  48. The real test will be whether Labour can hold onto a big lead come 2014 when the economy is recovering
    ……………………………………………………………….

    you seem to be very hopefull regarding the economy.

  49. @Pete B

    It is Chris Huhne, a cabinet minister who is currently raising the spectre of Thatcherism. (Observer front page.)

  50. One thing I would say is that the Conservative Party is doing rather better than many people, myself included, thought likely at is stage. I think, like him or loathe him, David Cameron is proving to be much better as PM than he was leader of the opposition.

    I don’t expect the high Tory polling to last much longer though.

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